# What is the likelihood of a double vacancy in the WH? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573 "2017-05-28T01:38:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/1 "2017-05-28T01:38:10Z")
I mean in the event that this whole Russia thing does in fact lead to the impeachment of the president, what would happen if it is found that Pence’s knowledge of Trump’s ties to the Russian government is sufficient to be considered an accessory to Trump’s legal wrongdoings? Would he be eligible for impeachment? What are the odds that both Trump and Pence would be convicted and removed from office and what would happen in the event of a double vacancy? Could they circumvent the problem by having Pence step down and Trump appoints a new VP before an impeachment? ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 1:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/2 "2017-05-28T01:57:52Z")
The Speaker of the House becomes President ---
**Author:** ![USCDiver](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uscdiver/32/354_2.png) [@USCDiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/USCDiver)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/3 "2017-05-28T02:03:43Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > Could they circumvent the problem by having Pence step down and Trump appoints a new VP before an impeachment? Yes. See Nixon, Agnew and Ford. ---
**Author:** ![Telemark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/telemark/32/372_2.png) [@Telemark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Telemark)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/4 "2017-05-28T02:07:56Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > Could they circumvent the problem by having Pence step down and Trump appoints a new VP before an impeachment? Who’s \*they \*in this question? ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/5 "2017-05-28T02:08:01Z")
> [@madsircool](#): > > The Speaker of the House becomes President It would depend on the timing. I doubt they would conduct simultaneous impeachments. (Actually, I doubt they would impeach Pence at all.) So it’s very likely Trump or Pence would be able to name a new VP before leaving office and Republicans in Congress would act quickly to confirm him. ---
**Author:** ![Evan\_Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@Evan\_Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evan_Drake)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/6 "2017-05-28T02:12:58Z")
I like the idea that the article of impeachment would be stated as ‘This Russian Thing’. However it wouldn’t come to that; if Trump was successfully impeached, and then later successfully prosecuted, and then forced from office, Pence would as a man of honour already resign in order to go down with the Donald. Trump gave him his only chance to become even vice-president — he would be the basest ingrate to turn on his friend, mentor and beloved benefactor. Pence may not be a _good_ man, he may not be even a _moral_ man; but he would be reviled throughout time as a Judas were he to do a Pompey and tell the aging Sulla, ‘_Men worship more the rising than the setting sun._’. ---
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/7 "2017-05-28T02:16:04Z")
> [@USCDiver](#): > > Yes. See Nixon, Agnew and Ford. Forgot about that precedent, yeah. But I wonder if Congress would still confirm a new VP were he stupid enough to wait until he’s officially impeached to act on plan B. > [@Telemark](#): > > Who’s \*they \*in this question? Trump and Pence. ---
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/8 "2017-05-28T02:20:45Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > I like the idea that the article of impeachment would be stated as ‘This Russian Thing’. However it wouldn’t come to that; if Trump was successfully impeached, and then later successfully prosecuted, and then forced from office, Pence would as a man of honour already resign in order to go down with the Donald. > Trump gave him his only chance to become even vice-president — he would be the basest ingrate to turn on his friend, mentor and beloved benefactor. Pence may not be a _good_ man, he may not be even a _moral_ man; but he would be reviled throughout time as a Judas were he to do a Pompey and tell the aging Sulla, ‘_Men worship more the rising than the setting sun._’. If it all comes to that, I highly _highly_ doubt there would be any such imperative to be loyal to Trump to the point of being willing to sink one’s boat for him. He would be considered a pariah by his own party. Besides he’s already shown he’s not above throwing people under the bus to save his own skin, no one would feel sorry about the tables being turned on him. ---
**Author:** ![madsircool](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/madsircool/32/3432_2.png) [@madsircool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/madsircool)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/9 "2017-05-28T02:25:09Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It would depend on the timing. I doubt they would conduct simultaneous impeachments. (Actually, I doubt they would impeach Pence at all.) So it’s very likely Trump or Pence would be able to name a new VP before leaving office and Republicans in Congress would act quickly to confirm him. I agree. I was just playing along with the hypothetical. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/10 "2017-05-28T02:30:56Z")
I thought Agnew was dropped for reasons unrelated to Watergate/Nixon. Some tax thing? ---
**Author:** ![RivkahChaya](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rivkahchaya/32/8919_2.png) [@RivkahChaya](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RivkahChaya)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/11 "2017-05-28T02:38:17Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I thought Agnew was dropped for reasons unrelated to Watergate/Nixon. Some tax thing? Yeah. ---
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/12 "2017-05-28T02:42:29Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > It would depend on the timing. I doubt they would conduct simultaneous impeachments. (Actually, I doubt they would impeach Pence at all.) So it’s very likely Trump or Pence would be able to name a new VP before leaving office and Republicans in Congress would act quickly to confirm him. I’m just curious, do you think a double impeachment is unlikely because it would generally be considered undesirable in terms of maintaining political stability for the country or do you think it’s unlikely because you don’t believe there’s enough evidence to implicate Pence? > [@JKellyMap](#): > > I thought Agnew was dropped for reasons unrelated to Watergate/Nixon. Some tax thing? I think the point is that there’s nothing to stop Pence from stepping down and for Trump to appoint another VP regardless of the circumstances for doing so. But Nixon did it before his authority as pres could be questioned. What happens if this situation arises while Trump is actively being impeached? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/13 "2017-05-28T02:51:47Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > I’m just curious, do you think a double impeachment is unlikely because it would generally be considered undesirable in terms of maintaining political stability for the country or do you think it’s unlikely because you don’t believe there’s enough evidence to implicate Pence? Right now, there isn’t enough evidence to implicate Trump. If you don’t agree with me on that, then perhaps you’ll agree with Nancy Pelosi and the NYT Editorial board, as both have said the same thing in within the last week or so. ---
**Author:** ![outlierrn](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/outlierrn/32/3005_2.png) [@outlierrn](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/outlierrn)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 2:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/14 "2017-05-28T02:51:54Z")
McCain/Sanders '17. ---
**Author:** ![Warm\_blood](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/df705f/32.png) [@Warm\_blood](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Warm_blood)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 3:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/15 "2017-05-28T03:21:04Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > Right now, there isn’t enough evidence to implicate Trump. If you don’t agree with me on that, then perhaps you’ll agree with Nancy Pelosi and the NYT Editorial board, as both have said the same thing in within the last week or so. He’s gone as far as to fire the FBI director in order to throw off the investigation and now his SIL is directly implicated. What makes you think a smoking gun won’t be uncovered eventually? ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 3:26am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/16 "2017-05-28T03:26:45Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > He’s gone as far as to fire the FBI director in order to throw off the investigation and now his SIL is directly implicated. What makes you think a smoking gun won’t be uncovered eventually? I said “right now”. Anything can happen “eventually”. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/17 "2017-05-28T04:16:00Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > I thought Agnew was dropped for reasons unrelated to Watergate/Nixon. Some tax thing? He had taken bribes when he was Governor of Maryland. The tax thing was that he hadn’t report the bribes as income. There was a deal where he pled guilty to the tax charge and resigned the Vice Presidency in exchange for the other charges being dropped. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/18 "2017-05-28T04:18:46Z")
> [@Evan\_Drake](#): > > I like the idea that the article of impeachment would be stated as ‘This Russian Thing’. However it wouldn’t come to that; if Trump was successfully impeached, and then later successfully prosecuted, and then forced from office, Pence would as a man of honour already resign in order to go down with the Donald. > Trump gave him his only chance to become even vice-president — he would be the basest ingrate to turn on his friend, mentor and beloved benefactor. Pence may not be a _good_ man, he may not be even a _moral_ man; but he would be reviled throughout time as a Judas were he to do a Pompey and tell the aging Sulla, ‘_Men worship more the rising than the setting sun._’. I may be getting whooshed here but I don’t see why Pence would be honor bound to resign. Trump chose him as Vice President so Pence’s duty to Trump is to step in if Trump leaves office. ---
**Author:** ![mikecurtis](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mikecurtis/32/3284_2.png) [@mikecurtis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mikecurtis)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 4:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/19 "2017-05-28T04:46:25Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > What is the likelihood of a double vacancy in the WH? Do you mean head and heart? ---
**Author:** ![GrumpyBunny](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/bc8723/32.png) [@GrumpyBunny](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GrumpyBunny)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 10:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/20 "2017-05-28T10:25:29Z")
I imagine that Pence has his VP picked and would be ready to swear him in the second Trump was out the door, so absent any major problem where Pence was simultaneously impeached, I don’t think a double vacancy is likely. Also, my cynical side thinks that a Pence presidency is what the end game has been all along. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573.md?page=2)