# What is the likelihood of a double vacancy in the WH? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 28, 2017, 1:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573 "2017-05-28T01:38:10Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/21 "2017-05-28T13:36:56Z")
If you want to know the actual probability, take a poll on this MB and then divide the results by 100. šŸ˜‰ ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 6:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/22 "2017-05-28T18:00:56Z")
> [@Warm\_blood](#): > > Iā€™m just curious, do you think a double impeachment is unlikely because it would generally be considered undesirable in terms of maintaining political stability for the country or do you think itā€™s unlikely because you donā€™t believe thereā€™s enough evidence to implicate Pence? Both. Impeachment is an extraordinary event in American politics; using it twice against one administration would be unprecedented. The Republicans certainly wouldnā€™t want to do it against an administration from their own party. And if the Democrats regain Congress in 2020 and tried it, I feel it would make them look vindictive and backfire against them. In addition, I feel the case against Pence is weaker. Trump is a central figure in ā€œthe Russian thingā€ and Pence is out on the edges. And Trump is a lot more disliked than Pence is. Finally, Pence is smarter than Trump is; Pence would be able to mount a more credible defense, legally and politically, than Trump would be able to manage. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 6:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/23 "2017-05-28T18:18:38Z")
Yeah, Pence is probably smart enough not to brag about firing the FBI director over The Russia Thing on national TV. ---
**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/24 "2017-05-28T18:20:01Z")
One thing Trump has going for him over Pence is experience. Experience in dealing with lawsuits, that is. > [@Lemur866](#): > > Yeah, Pence is probably smart enough not to brag about firing the FBI director over The Russia Thing on national TV. Hey, nobody knew that presidenting was going to be this hard! ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2017, 6:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/25 "2017-05-28T18:23:45Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > I said ā€œright nowā€. Anything can happen ā€œeventuallyā€. True, but he didnā€™t fire Comey because of the Clinton emails, and Sessions/Flynn/Kushner/Manafort didnā€™t happen to forget those pesky little Russian meetings when they filled out their paperwork. They did these things to try to cover up what they were doing. There is no other rational explanation. ā€œEventuallyā€ isnā€™t exactly a longshot here. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2017, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/26 "2017-05-29T00:39:15Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I may be getting whooshed here but I donā€™t see why Pence would be honor bound to resign. Trump chose him as Vice President so Penceā€™s duty to Trump is to step in if Trump leaves office. Agree. Penceā€™s purpose, like every VPā€™s, is to be the spare President in case something goes wrong with the main one. To be sure, if Pence is equally implicated in corrupt skullduggery, or is killed in the same attack, or eats the same bad fish, or whatever, he may fail in his role as spare. The idea that Pence has a duty to resign, especially to resign first, over something Trump did that Pence didnā€™t, is laughably backwards. > [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I imagine that Pence has his VP picked and would be ready to swear him in the second Trump was out the door, so absent any major problem where Pence was simultaneously impeached, I donā€™t think a double vacancy is likely. > > Also, my cynical side thinks that a Pence presidency is what the end game has been all along. Agree with the first part. Every VP worth his paycheck should have considered that question and have an answer on file. Several answers in fact, each at least partly pre-vetted and fully prioritized. As to the second part I agree it was the mainstream Establishment Insider Rā€™s backup plan. Not necessarily anyone elseā€™s backup plan. If Trump delivered the goods on deregulation / tax cuts / well-targeted deficit spending as expected, however unconventionally he did it, they (EI Rā€™s) would be OK. If Trump went too far off the ranch, they believed/hoped they could rein him in or push him out and Pence would be a tractable ordinary hum-drum spare. If indeed the EI Rā€™s had that plan then so far events are not unfolding according to either branch of their planā€™s decision tree. And Trumpā€™s election process, if not exactly his administrationā€™s performance, has certainly enlivened the non-EI part of the R coalition. Which also canā€™t be something the EI crowd is happy to see. IOW, to the degree that was the plan itā€™s shaping up so far as Epic Fail. But itā€™s early days yet and the EI crowd may yet pull victory from the jaws of trending gently towards defeat. ---
**Author:** ![snfaulkner](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/snfaulkner/32/433_2.png) [@snfaulkner](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/snfaulkner)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2017, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/27 "2017-05-29T00:43:16Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > ā€¦or eats the same bad fishā€¦ The salmon mousse! ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2017, 12:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/28 "2017-05-29T00:57:23Z")
Never put moose in the salmon. The flavor of antlers clashes with the delicate fish. ---
**Author:** ![cochrane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cochrane/32/10441_2.png) [@cochrane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/cochrane)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2017, 1:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/29 "2017-05-29T01:16:34Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > ā€¦ or eats the same bad fishā€¦ Well then, the answerā€™s simple. Pence should have the lasagna. ---
**Author:** ![astorian](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ad7895/32.png) [@astorian](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/astorian)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2017, 2:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/30 "2017-05-29T02:57:11Z")
Impeaching Trump is a silly dream to begin with, so you might as well dream BIG. Every Republican in Washington was in cahoots with Putin, so they ALL go to prison and the Supreme Court (minus Gorsuch, Alito, Roberts, Thomas and Kennedy, who are all in jail) declares Hillary the rightful winner. This scenario is no more farfetched than the OPā€™s. ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [May 30, 2017, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/31 "2017-05-30T21:55:19Z")
> [@GrumpyBunny](#): > > I imagine that Pence has his VP picked and would be ready to swear him in the second Trump was out the door, so absent any major problem where Pence was simultaneously impeached, I donā€™t think a double vacancy is likely. Depends on whether Pence is implicated, and how unpopular Pence is. Removal from office after Impeachment requires 2/3 of the Senate. Appointing a new VP requires a majority of both houses. In the case where 2/3 of the Senate has just removed Trump from office, if Pence is also tangled up in it (or enough people think he is), I donā€™t see a majority of Senators letting him pick a VP. ---
**Author:** ![Shodan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9f8e36/32.png) [@Shodan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Shodan)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/32 "2017-05-31T14:56:19Z")
> [@iamthewalrus\_3](#): > > Depends on whether Pence is implicated, and how unpopular Pence is. > > Removal from office after Impeachment requires 2/3 of the Senate. Appointing a new VP requires a majority of both houses. In the case where 2/3 of the Senate has just removed Trump from office, if Pence is also tangled up in it (or enough people think he is), I donā€™t see a majority of Senators letting him pick a VP. So they would just not approve anyone Pence picked for VP? If Pence were tangled up in it, then I suppose eventually Pence would also be impeached and removed from office. Then Paul Ryan becomes POTUS. IOW not confirming anyone means confirming (more or less) Paul Ryan as VP. Regards, Shodan ---
**Author:** ![iamthewalrus\_3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/258eb7/32.png) [@iamthewalrus\_3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iamthewalrus_3)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 5:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/33 "2017-05-31T17:31:42Z")
> [@Shodan](#): > > So they would just not approve anyone Pence picked for VP? > > If Pence were tangled up in it, then I suppose eventually Pence would also be impeached and removed from office. Then Paul Ryan becomes POTUS. IOW not confirming anyone means confirming (more or less) Paul Ryan as VP. Exactly. Maybe. I mean, Iā€™m not making a solid prediction, just offering a possible scenario. I still think Trump removal from office is pretty unlikely. But if it does go down, heā€™s going to be pretty damned unpopular at the time. If Pence gets mired in that (for whatever reason) and Ryan manages not to, I can easily see them letting it go to Ryan rather than confirming any Pence nominee. ---
**Author:** ![Mighty\_Girl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7bcc69/32.png) [@Mighty\_Girl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mighty_Girl)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/34 "2017-05-31T17:43:41Z")
But why would Ryan-I-need-concessions-to-take-this-job take the job of undertaker for the Trump administration? Heā€™ll be out of the house, and the splatters frim the multiple scandals that led to this scenario would make it impossible for him to run on his own. Does he HAVE to take it, can he say no? ---
**Author:** ![epolo](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/b487fb/32.png) [@epolo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/epolo)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/35 "2017-05-31T17:46:25Z")
Since impeachment is a political process, doesnā€™t this boil down to a political question? That is to say, if Ryan wants to be president and the Republican leadership supports him they will impeach and convict both together. If Ryan doesnā€™t want it or the leadership prefers someone else, they will go one at a time and put the new person in place during. All based on the far-fetched assumption that there are grounds to go after both and the Republicans decide to go for it. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/36 "2017-05-31T19:01:03Z")
Fighting the hypothetical Pence will not be impeached. I think it is pretty clear he had nothing to do with the Russians and neither did Trump. What they would impeach Trump for is obstruction of justice, the same thing that forced Nixon out. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 9:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/37 "2017-05-31T21:38:11Z")
> [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > Fighting the hypothetical > Pence will not be impeached. I think it is pretty clear he had nothing to do with the Russians and neither did Trump. What they would impeach Trump for is obstruction of justice, the same thing that forced Nixon out. Serious question. What would convince you that there was collusion between Russia and Trump? ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/38 "2017-05-31T21:53:33Z")
Thereā€™s one major difference between Trump and Pence; if Pence sees the writing on the wall and his impeachment/removal looks certain heā€™d probably just resign like Nixon did, Trump on the other hand is likely to fight tooth and nail to the bitter end. Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk ---
**Author:** ![Tzigone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/839c29/32.png) [@Tzigone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tzigone)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/39 "2017-05-31T22:00:40Z")
I will say it seems like Pence has just disappeared lately. Probably a smart move. Even if nothing comes of this, heā€™s keeping his name from having a negative connotation to the general population. If all they get Trump on is obstruction, Pence is likely fine. Heck, Trump may well be fine, because I donā€™t think the GOP congressmen will go for impeachment at that alone. Not unless their voters (not just the voters, the ones in their districts that at least had some likelihood of voting for them) want it. Right now, Trump is still more popular than the representatives in some districts. If they get any other shady business dealings with Russians (even if not collusion on election), it gets murkier. Pence could probably still come out clear if itā€™s just business issues. He was head of the transition team, though, and thereā€™s the Flynn issue. What was he told? What did he know and when did he know it? That, of course, is dependent on how things turn out for Flynn. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [May 31, 2017, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573/40 "2017-05-31T22:07:24Z")
Another consideration is the 2020 election; the Republicans would likely prefer to run an incumbent President Ryan rather than a President Pence. Ryan is much more electable, photogenic, not as Trump-tainted, probably more centrist, etc. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-likelihood-of-a-double-vacancy-in-the-wh/787573.md?page=3)