Sure, like rock-paper-scissors. I wasn’t using random play as a benchmark for bad play in general, but just for chess specifically.
There’s always the Most Dangerous Game.
You also have to control for the number of players and popularity of the sport. For instance, a lot of women’s divisions have extremely broad ranges in skill, which is an entirely different variable than the underlying skill.
Also comparing the 10th to the 20th is a bit odd, as it may be substantially different than comparing the top 3 to the 10th.
I’m going to suggest motorcycle racing. An amateur has zero chance of winning at the upper levels of this sport.
Yeah, but an amateur has zero chance of winning at any sport against the best competitors.
In some sports, even some of the best professionals have basically zero chance of winning.
I guess a better way of framing it is what is the tiniest increment in skill you have to achieve before you go from losing 95% of the time against someone to winning 95% of the time against someone. Golf was an example brought up before as one where this skill band is particularly wide. You have to be immensely better than someone else before you can dominate them in win rate. Weightlifting, on the other hand, even a slight change in your personal best means you can consistently beat someone else even though you’re only a tiny bit better.
I’m not sure how true that is. While you can be the number one player in the world by winning only a handful of events each year you are playing against 160 odd opponents most weeks. You may be able to dominate most of them individually but you don’t play match play head to head. Any of them can beat you one week and fail to every other week. I think if they did only play head to head like a tennis tournament it would pan out like tennis with the same small group of guys playing regular finals.
In fact, I thought I read an article about that at some point. Maybe Grantland (RIP) or something like that. Tennis seems very top-heavy, but that’s in large part due to the format of the major tournaments.
That said, even for head-to-head knockout based formats, I still think high-level Tennis is a good answer for the OP. The gap between #10 and #20 in that sport is probably as large as it is for any individual sport, IMO.
Weightlifting and running (really all of the track and field events) are good nominations too. Basically anything with very high physical requirements and very little luck.
[QUOTE=Shalmanese;19213809**]
There are some games where if you take a decent amateur and put them up against a world champion, the amateur still has a chance to win some small but non-trivial percentage of games**. There are other games where even a pretty good player has almost no chance of competing. For the purposes of this discussion, I’m going to label the former more luck based games and the latter more skill based games.
Under this classification, what would be considered the most skill based game ever? Are there any games for example, where if the 10th best player in the world played the 20th best player in the world, they would win 95+% of the time?
[/QUOTE]
(my bolding)
I’d say table tennis.
World-class players are in another universe compared to most national champions (excluding expats), let alone decent amateurs. You get creamed every time. The chance of winning is 0.
I’m decent at table tennis and a friend of mine is a former Peruvian champion. He’s late 50’s (I was 42), overweight, and has a tricky knee. Using his non-playing hand he had me for lunch without moving. Basically every serve was an ace for him and almost every return was a point. The longest rally was, I think no more than five or six hits.
It was embarrasing.
Rochambeau, on the other hand, is a game of skill requiring concentration few can muster.
Chess will be high but out of the sports I would hazard that either table tennis or squash would be good bets. The tops guys in both tend to be totally dominant - more so than tennis even.