# What is the motivation of China's manned space program? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 17, 2011, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329 "2011-07-17T06:37:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 6:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/1 "2011-07-17T06:37:30Z")
Now that the US has called it quits, China seems to have the most interesting space program. Russia doesn’t seem to be developing beyond their current capabilities. And that’s not likely to change anytime soon, EU and India’s efforts notwithstanding. > **[Chinese space program](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program)** > > The space program of the People's Republic of China is about the activities in outer space conducted and directed by the People's Republic of China. It involves the capacity to enter and return from space and ability to engage in space exploration, utilization and governance. > The technological roots of the Chinese space program trace back to the 1950s, when, with the help of the newly allied Soviet Union, China began development of its first ballistic missile and rocket programs in response t... But why? Is it just for geopolitical prestige? It’s been said that China’s politicians can think in 50 year plans and 100 year plans since they don’t have to fight for every election. Is it possibly because China fears a resource crunch in 50 years time and sees asteroid mining as a commercially viable operation by then? There is a list of stated goals of the Chinese space program on the wiki page but none of them provide the reason behind a manned space program. Of course having their own satellite launch capability and own GPS constellation makes economic sense. So why the manned program? ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 7:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/2 "2011-07-17T07:40:49Z")
Status. Cultural pride. Inspiration for the people. To extend the boundaries of the nation and start learning how to build things and go places in space. The same reason the Americans and the Russians did it. I’m not sure what you see so impressive about their program, though. They’ve announced many plans over the years, some grandiose, but they don’t seem to be actually _achieving_ a lot. Notice that the Wiki page has material on it that’s quite old. To date, China has managed a manned orbital flight and an unmanned orbit of the moon. Their ambitious plans would be wonderful to see, and I hope China keeps pushing forward into space, but I have my doubts. The country’s GDP is only about 3.5 trillion dollars - about double the U.S.'s _deficit_. It’s hard to see them being able to afford the kind of investments necessary for ‘space cities’ and moon bases. Frankly, I think the commercial space industry in the U.S. is more impressive. SpaceX has already launched a 7-person capsule (the [Dragon](http://www.spacex.com/dragon.php)) into orbit and landed it safely (unmanned). Dragon is modern, capable of docking with the ISS, and has a heat shield capable of withstanding re-entry speeds from lunar or Martian return missions. SpaceX has a rocket already in commercial use, the [Falcon 1](http://www.spacex.com/F1-004-summary.php). The [The Falcon 9](http://www.spacex.com/falcon9.php) is capable of putting serious tonnage into orbit, and the recently announced [Falcon Heavy](http://www.spacex.com/F1-004-summary.php) can put 53,000 kg in orbit - twice as much as the Space Shuttle, and will be the second-largest rocket ever flown, second only to the Saturn V. In fact, China has announced that it is unable to compete with SpaceX’s launch prices. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 8:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/3 "2011-07-17T08:10:35Z")
China has a stated goal of a manned program to Mar’s by 2040 and I think they are the only country that now has that. Sam, have you been to China? I would guess not. I am in Shanghai right now, researching starting a business here and moving here permanently (well for 5-10 years at least). There’s all kinds of stuff here in Shanghai that a country with a average GDP of only $7500 US per year just should not be able to afford. You have to remember that China’s labour costs, even for high tech space experts are much much lower than the US so they can buy a lot more per yuan on their space program than the US does. In Shanghai a skilled native university graduate will get paid $25-$30,000 per year and that’s a good wage in China. If China makes manned exploration of mar’s a serious goal, they’ll do it, they don’t have fickleness of changes of governments to worry about. As for a revolution, not going to happen, the current generation are far too happy getting rich and buying mercedes, BMW’s and ipads to have another go at regime change. ---
**Author:** ![Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/8c91f0/32.png) [@Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Throatwarbler_Mangrove)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 8:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/4 "2011-07-17T08:35:12Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > As for a revolution, not going to happen, the current generation are far too happy getting rich and buying mercedes, BMW’s and ipads to have another go at regime change. What the fuck are you talking about? ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/5 "2011-07-17T09:58:48Z")
> [@Throatwarbler\_Mangrove](#): > > What the fuck are you talking about? Just stating the facts. 10 percent growth per year for last 10 years seems to have put a dampener on any serious protest movements in china. The current generation of new graduate university students are far too busy getting rich to protest and yes bmws mercedes and iPads are everywhere i’n shanghai. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 1:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/6 "2011-07-17T13:16:42Z")
How long will that growth rate be sustained? Of course if you’re in Shanghai or Beijing China doesn’t seem like a poor country. But there’s a vast hinterland with hundreds of millions of peasants who are still dirt poor. China has a long way before it can catch up with Mexico in per-capita GDP. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/7 "2011-07-17T15:02:10Z")
Personally I’m willing to bet that China’s long term growth potential is a lot more assured than the US’s. China has not blown the last 10 years of tax revenue on two pointless wars and bailing out the people that started the whole financial crisis in the first place like some other super power I won’t mention. China is investing it’s income in infrastructure, like the world’s largest high speed rail network (currently 9600 km and aiming for 45,000 km by 2015), hydropower, Nuclear power stations and research like the Chinese developed Supercapacitor zero emissions buses that are running successfully on Shanghai’s streets on commercial routes right now. The figure above is outdated, China’s GDP is 5.8 trillion, NOT 3.5. Assuming they drop to 7 percent growth on average they’ll pass the US as world’s largest economy in 17 years. Allowing for some hiccups lets say 25 years. It says a lot for the US failures that a communist country is currently offering a much better environment for an entrepreneur than the supposed bastion of capitalism. Lets see the fox pundits heads explode trying to wrap their heads around the cognitive dissonance on that simple truth. So anyway, none of that has anything to do with their motivations for a manned space program. Anyone want to discuss that? ---
**Author:** ![alphaboi867](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/alphaboi867/32/3898_2.png) [@alphaboi867](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/alphaboi867)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 4:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/8 "2011-07-17T16:23:18Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > …It says a lot for the US failures that a communist country is currently offering a much better environment for an entrepreneur than the supposed bastion of capitalism… The People’s Republic of China hasn’t been “communist” in any meaningful economic sense for going on 2 or 3 decades now. China is a capitalist country (albeit with a much cosier relationship between business & government than in the US). It has retained the communist _politcal system_, and that’s not likely to change at all anytime soon. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2011, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/9 "2011-07-17T16:38:41Z")
> [@alphaboi867](#): > > The People’s Republic of China hasn’t been “communist” in any meaningful economic sense for going on 2 or 3 decades now. China is a capitalist country (albeit with a much cosier relationship between business & government than in the US). It has retained the communist _politcal system_, and that’s not likely to change at all anytime soon. Read the goals of the 2011-2015 five year plan of the CPC here: > **[Five-year plans of China](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Five-Year_Plans_of_the_People's_Republic_of_China#The_Twelfth_Five-Year_Guideline.2C_2011.E2.80.932015)** > > The Five-Year Plans (Chinese: 五年计划; pinyin: Wǔnián Jìhuà) are a series of social and economic development initiatives issued by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) since 1953 in the People's Republic of China. Since 1949, the CCP has shaped the Chinese economy through the plenums of its Central Committee and national party congresses. The plenums follow a customary pattern of themes; since the 14th Party Congress (1992–1997), the fifth plenum has evaluated the current five-year plan and outlined ... among them is “address rising inequality and create an environment for more sustainable growth by prioritizing more equitable wealth distribution, increased domestic consumption, and improved social infrastructure and social safety nets.” That’s socialist even if it isn’t communist. Again this has got nothing to do with the reason for their manned space program, anyone? Bueller? ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/10 "2011-07-18T13:15:43Z")
Right now space is comparitively marginal except for two main areas- telecommunications and earth surveillance. That could change in the future however, especially if denial of space/ destruction of space based assets via anti-sat capabilities becomes crucial in any future conflict. The Chinese are keeping their hand in against the chance that 20-30 years down the road having a major space capacity becomes vital to national security, economic competativeness, or both. ---
**Author:** ![coremelt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/4491bb/32.png) [@coremelt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/coremelt)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 4:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/11 "2011-07-18T16:34:51Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > Right now space is comparitively marginal except for two main areas- telecommunications and earth surveillance. That could change in the future however, especially if denial of space/ destruction of space based assets via anti-sat capabilities becomes crucial in any future conflict. The Chinese are keeping their hand in against the chance that 20-30 years down the road having a major space capacity becomes vital to national security, economic competativeness, or both. thanks lumpy thats the first sensible observation in this whole thread! ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/12 "2011-07-18T16:44:54Z")
Translation: “this is the first post that agrees with me!” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 4:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/13 "2011-07-18T16:59:08Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Is it possibly because China fears a resource crunch in 50 years time and sees asteroid mining as a commercially viable operation by then? If so, either they have airy imaginations or they know something about physics or technology we don’t. At the present state of technology, the Moon would not be worth mining if it were made of solid gold with petroleum oceans. Not even **Antarctica** can be mined profitably, and the problems of working in an isolated subzero environment and digging through a mile of ice to scratch the dirt are trivial compared to those of mining astral bodies. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 5:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/14 "2011-07-18T17:14:16Z")
A robust space program will help their image and be a testing lab for new and better technology. It is a win for them. Innovation and the technology of the future are created when you have a need. The space program is such a need. Making things smaller and more powerful is a need in the space program. New solutions to old problems come from it. The spillover from the program are new products and new industries. Ergo a brighter future. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/15 "2011-07-18T17:39:55Z")
It is also a work program for technical workers and highly skilled professionals. ---
**Author:** ![Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/e8c25b/32.png) [@Really\_Not\_All\_That\_Bright](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Really_Not_All_That_Bright)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/16 "2011-07-18T18:55:37Z")
I don’t know about you, but I’m not all _that_ concerned about jobs programs for high earners. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/5f8ce5/32.png) [@The\_Peyote\_Coyote](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Peyote_Coyote)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/17 "2011-07-18T19:05:41Z")
As Robert A. Heinlein said: “Earth is too small and fragile a basket for humanity to put all of its eggs in.” ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/18 "2011-07-18T19:49:24Z")
> [@gonzomax](#): > > Making things smaller and more powerful is a need in the space program. These days, I daresay the desire for smaller and cooler cellphones is driving _that_ engine. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/19 "2011-07-18T19:50:23Z")
> [@The\_Peyote\_Coyote](#): > > As Robert A. Heinlein said: “Earth is too small and fragile a basket for humanity to put all of its eggs in.” Except that so far we haven’t found anything halfway resembling an alternate basket. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [July 18, 2011, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329/20 "2011-07-18T19:53:05Z")
> [@coremelt](#): > > Is it possibly because China fears a resource crunch in 50 years time and sees asteroid mining as a commercially viable operation by then? Rocket-based propulsion is unlikely to ever be commercially viable, mining or no.\* If the Chinese were thinking along those lines, they’d be developing a space elevator or launch loop. - Ignoring the possibility of launching billionaires into space, for tourism purposes. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-motivation-of-chinas-manned-space-program/589329.md?page=2)