It’s difficult to know what their real intentions are. You will hear plans ranging from conservative to physically impossible come from random government-connected sources in both China and Russia. The fact that these “plans” are often self-contradictory and have no budget seems to indicate that they are not part of the “real” plan. But they make it difficult to know what the “real” plan, if any, is. These are not governments that feel it is in their interest to be transparent.
Then again, the same was true of the Soviets. When it became clear the US was way ahead, they pretended to have lost interest, but in reality they had a crash program (literally) that wasn’t cancelled until well into the 70s. Apollo happened because JFK said we were going to land on the moon by the end of the decade. If it was a space race, it was the US racing against its stated deadline, not against any other coordinated effort.
Your the one stating that "Long-term, the moon is a very sweet, strategic chunk of high ground territory. " I"m saying there is no strategic advantage to having a presense there.
You asked what the ramifications would be if China plants a flag on the moon. I asked you if that’s their intention. Is it? Or not? Do you know anything about the Chinese space program?
Seems pretty obvious to me. Prestige would be a big one…no one else has ever even attempted it. Engineering wise it would teach you a ton about doing such a structures, logistically supporting it, etc. Also, there is still scientific research that could be done there…plenty of it. Similar to why folks put scientific research stations in Antarctica. Possibly to test or demonstrate resource gathering capabilities or possibilities for stuff like H3.
The biggest one would be the prestige though…it would instantly catapult whichever country pulled it off far ahead of every other county prestige wise, and would be a pretty cool achievement if someone could pull it off without breaking their economy to do it…or getting a bunch of people killed trying (and failing).
I don’t get the Chinese space program-they have had one manned orbital flight that duplicated what was done by the USSR and USA ca. 1965. This seems to be the extent of it-do they have a booster that would alow a lunar flight?
As for a manned Mars mission-I doubt it very much…it is probably far beyond their capabilities.
As for "prestige"who cares about that stuff anymore? Having a massive trade surplus and cash in the bank is far more important.
To humiliate America and to show strength to the world. Which is why as I’ve said a manned US space program is CRITICAL to maintaining our ascendence in the world.
The Founding Fathers never knew how great and powerful America would become nor did they knew that the US would be critical in maintaing freedom in the world.
But, it’s not, not any more. Freedom can thrive without us, now. And there is not a single country remaining, no, not even South Korea or Taiwan or Israel, that really needs American military protection.
Yeah, they have a road map, rather than official plan. First they need to learn how to get people there, then keep them alive there on a base or something. In the process, they’d learn quite a bit about living sustainably with limited resources, which is knowledge it sounds like everyone could benefit from in the future. Further down the line if things go well, they’d like to use the moon as a launch platform for later spacecraft, manned and unmanned, to explore planets further out than Mars.
These are things I think we need to do eventually, not just for profit, but for the continued development of humanity.
How would the Moon be any better for that than a near-Earth-orbit station? When the distances are planetary, the Moon is a “steppingstone” to nowhere – how many days would you actually save on a three-year Mars mission by launching it from Luna?
Well, it depends what they can learn to accomplish on the moon. If you can produce your own propulsion fuel from lunar material it may be easier to assemble, fuel, and launch your spaceship from there. There may be advantages in terms of long-term mental and physical health working and living in a lower-gravity environment than in a free-floating micro-gravity environment.
Well, it’s not like they will have a base on the moon tomorrow either, right? You wanted some reasons why the Chinese might want to build a base and seemed confused as to what those reasons might be. I gave you a few reasons, with the biggest being prestige, not resources. Still, resources could be one of a mix of reasons to go there, and H3 might be very valuable one day. There are other resources on the moon as well, and all that scientific discovery stuff, but really the main reason the Chinese would do it if they could (I have my doubts they can, at least not any time in the near future) is because no one else has been able to establish such a base on another world, not even America…and only America has ever actually been able to get a live person to another world so far, and by doing so we certainly gained a large measure of prestige for doing so.
I think people discount that, as they dismiss any worth in sending people into space.
What were the US’ motivations? Answer that, and China’s may become much clearer. It also may be clearer how much we’ve abandoned, in that it is now so difficult a concept to grasp. Perhaps they choose to go to the moon in this decade, not because it is easy, but because it is hard.