What is the motivation of China's manned space program?

[Lumpy]

Regarding nuclear propulsion: AFAIK, NERVA never achieved a thrust-weight ratio greater than 1. In other words, it couldn’t lift itself off the Earth’s surface; it was intended for use as an upper stage or for orbital transfer only, and that meant that it wasn’t useful for anything smaller than a Saturn V. The sources I’ve read said that it offered maybe double the performance of a conventional liquid hydrogen/ liquid oxygen engine, not “orders of magnitude”. And that’s double the performance of that stage, not the rocket as a whole.

Now there is a nuclear concept that if it worked would offer significantly improved performance: a nuclear gas core rocket, in which the fuel is plasma hot and several clever tricks are used to keep the core from melting the rest of the rocket. IF it worked you could have a reusable, single-stage, Saturn V-sized vehicle boosting 2000 ton payloads into orbit. (I’d name the first one the Heinlein). But that’s a pretty huge if. No one has even tried to build a proof of concept so far as I know.

Or just go ahead and build an Orion nuclear-pulse ship. Pity about the fallout but what can you do?

[XT]

@Bryan Ekers

Hundreds of billions? Did they abandon the one-child policy for an eighty-child one?

It was supposed to read ‘hundreds of millions’…not sure what happened there. Ah well…c’est la vie…

-XT

[billfish678]

@spifflog

If the Chinese get to the moon by 2040 (their stated goal up thread) what will that really mean to their prestige, if that’s what it’s for? At that point NASA might ask them to bring back something from the antique, 70 year old lunar lander.

Weez on yur moon stealin yur rims!

[treis]

@Qin_Shi_Huangdi

To humiliate America and to show strength to the world. Which is why as I’ve said a manned US space program is CRITICAL to maintaining our ascendence in the world.

What is China’s space program going to do to humiliate America?

[BMalion]

I’m all for it, the sooner we get to 蓝色太阳公司 the better.

[ralph124c]

Good info! I remember that the Russians were about to make a fourth service branch-the rocket forces. The SAF also seriously considered setting up a “Space Comman”-analgous to SAC.
Too bad these forces never happened-they probably had designed some cool uniforms and ranks!

[Lust4Life]

My my there seems to more then a whiff of panic wafting round this thread.
No, no the Chinese aren’t serious about a long term manned space programme,

And anyway they couldn’t do it,

And anyway its only for prestige purposes,

And the U.S. could do it anytime they wanted to ,

Plus everyone knows that commercial companies are doing it just fine,

And anyway the U.S. doesn’t want to do it,

And theres nothing worthwhile off planet anyway,

And technologys never going to advance so we can never exploit space in the future…

Come off of it, the U.S. has bailed out of any meaningful participation in future manned space exploration and China has the money, the technology and the WILL to do it.

China isn’t worried about the taxpayer complaining because he can’t afford a new car every year, China isn’t worried if it has to take some casualties to advance into space.

China isn’t worried that theres going to be change of government policy every five or ten years.

China is doing this for the very basic motives of future material wealth, and future political power in the worlds affairs.
(Plus of course scientific advancemant as part of the spin off of the programme)

The prestige is merely the icing on the cake, if it was purely a prestige project they could achieve much the same ends more cheaply here on Earth.

But they’re taking the long view, and its pretty much a certainty that they’ll be successfu;l as they will maintain the programme for as long as it takes without the need for quick fix gratification stunts for the man in the street.

So kid yourselves as much as you like that its something that they can’t/won’t do and you don’t want it anyway, a bit like an envious kid who’s had their pocket money reduced…

Like it or not, its going to happen.

[BrainGlutton]

@Lust4Life

China is doing this for the very basic motives of future material wealth . . .

Wait, what?!

[spifflog]

@Lust4Life

My my there seems to more then a whiff of panic wafting round this thread.

China is doing this for the very basic motives of future material wealth, and future political power in the worlds affairs.

As has been asked before, what material weath are they going to brig back from the moon, and what political power are they going to get from landing on the moon 70+ years after the United States?

It sounds cool I guess, but i just don’t see where the tangible payoff is.

[Nica]

Speaking of valuable resources, I came across this little tidbit.

“It has been estimated that if one cubic kilometer of a mineral rich Asteroid were brought to earth it would be worth about $5 trillion. Such an Asteroid would provide the world with about two hundred years’ supply of nickel and enough steel to run industries in every country for the next fifteen years, given the current rate of use.” ~skygaze.com

[Lust4Life]

To put it one way, once you’ve established yourself upthere/out there, bringing back the bacon to Earth is all downhill.

[Bryan_Ekers]

@Nica

Speaking of valuable resources, I came across this little tidbit.

“It has been estimated that if one cubic kilometer of a mineral rich Asteroid were brought to earth it would be worth about $5 trillion. Such an Asteroid would provide the world with about two hundred years’ supply of nickel and enough steel to run industries in every country for the next fifteen years, given the current rate of use.” ~skygaze.com

I’m kinda curious how you get it actually to Earth. Do you carve off small pieces, attach parachutes and let them just crash, or try to bring down the whole 'roid in one shot? Where would you park it?

[BrainGlutton]

@Nica

Speaking of valuable resources, I came across this little tidbit.

“It has been estimated that if one cubic kilometer of a mineral rich Asteroid were brought to earth it would be worth about $5 trillion. Such an Asteroid would provide the world with about two hundred years’ supply of nickel and enough steel to run industries in every country for the next fifteen years, given the current rate of use.” ~skygaze.com

And what would it cost to get an asteroid of that mass down to Earth safely? Or even into near-Earth orbit?

[Sam_Stone]

I keep saying this, but it generally gets ignored:

The prime value of a manned space program is not measured in minerals or technical spinoffs. It’s measured by its effect on the national psyche, by its effect on the motivation of children to go into math and science, and by its ability to inspire others to attempt great things.

This is a value that’s hard to quantify in dollars and cents. In that way, it’s like spending on education, or spending on a national program to win Olympic games.

Personally, I think the manned space program, starting from Mercury on, had a bigger effect on science and engineering education than the Department of Education has ever managed, and it has more than twice NASA’s annual budget.

If you’re a Keynesian, think of Keynes’ ‘animal spirits’:

@John Maynard Keynes

“Even apart from the instability due to speculation, there is the instability due to the characteristic of human nature that a large proportion of our positive activities depend on spontaneous optimism rather than mathematical expectations, whether moral or hedonistic or economic. Most, probably, of our decisions to do something positive, the full consequences of which will be drawn out over many days to come, can only be taken as the result of animal spirits - a spontaneous urge to action rather than inaction, and not as the outcome of a weighted average of quantitative benefits multiplied by quantitative probabilities.”

An 810 billion dollar stimulus was an attempt to rekindle the ‘animal spirits’ of a population afraid to spend and invest. Compared to that, a space program is cheap. NASA’s budget is less than half of the interest on the stimulus.

Canceling manned space, turning inward from exploration, and focusing effort on domestic comfort may buy temporary votes, but it sends a horrible message to our children and to other countries around the world. Nothing says “We’re in decline” like watching past grand achievements fade with nothing to replace them. And if the people believe that their nation is in decline, they’re not going to invest in risky ventures that have long-term payoffs, kids aren’t going to work extra hard to study science and engineering if there are no adventures to promise or frontiers to conquer.

[coremelt]

@even_sven

Well, time will tell, right?

The whole “America has problems too, neener” defense is one of the weaker bits of nationalist rhetoric,

I’m Australian, and I’m not a nationalist to any country, I’m a pragmatic anarcho-capitalist. Right at this moment in history, China seems to offer me the best environment to do business in. When that changes I’ll move on.

You’ve consistently tried to paint a picture that China is on the verge of some kind of collapse or political turmoil. From where I’m sitting having done a lot of reading about both systems the US is far closer to economic paralysis and some kind of regime change than China is.

If the US does default on the debt, the value of the US dollar will plunge and your interest payments will go up. That will put you in the position of some of the middle eastern countries before the arab spring, food costs will soar and a lot of your working poor simply won’t be able to afford to eat. Then what happens?

[BrainGlutton]

@coremelt

You’ve consistently tried to paint a picture that China is on the verge of some kind of collapse or political turmoil. From where I’m sitting having done a lot of reading about both systems the US is far closer to economic paralysis and some kind of regime change than China is.

But . . . but . . . but . . .

[coremelt]

@BrainGlutton

But . . . but . . . but . . .

Just in case anyone missed the sarcasm, that book was published in 2001 and the author said that China only had 5 years to fix stuff or face collapse. It’s 2011 and China is still growing. As for not being attractive to foreign investors, I’m a foreign investor (albeit a relatively small fish) and the benefits to me are many.

[XT]

@Lust4Life

My my there seems to more then a whiff of panic wafting round this thread.

Yes, like the terror caused by their mighty ‘new’ air craft carrier, that will sweep the seas of our American taint, ehe? We are all in a panic about China’s vast new manned space program and their undoubted prowess and access to vast new mineral resources! Definitely. To be sure…

-XT

[BrainGlutton]

I ain’t panicking! I want Chinese In Space! Doesn’t matter who does it, in the long run the whole world benefits.

[marshmallow]

@Sam_Stone

The prime value of a manned space program is not measured in minerals or technical spinoffs. It’s measured by its effect on the national psyche, by its effect on the motivation of children to go into math and science, and by its ability to inspire others to attempt great things.

Great things like what?

If technical spinoffs are not a concern then why care if kids go into math and science?