# What is the Probability that I'd Get into Mensa? **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [September 2, 2010, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338 "2010-09-02T01:44:47Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 5
**Author:** ![wellanuff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/57b2e6/32.png) [@wellanuff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wellanuff)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2014, 4:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/81 "2014-04-16T04:38:43Z")
> [@BryanEzzell](#): > > The division of worldwide Mensa membership into the global population produces odds which are 1:67,272.7273 that any one person will be a Mensan. The term ‘top two percent’ clarifies that two of 100 people are accepted. > > This is however heavily influenced by the fact that only people who are pretty smart to begin with try to take these tests, since the real ones are not free and are of no cash value. > > So, the odds are 2:100 of people who’ think they are smart enough’ to take the test, will pass it. Statistically it is 1:67,000+ however. > > I am a Mensan. Previous comments about stuffy eggheads is not quite accurate. Mensans where I live in Southern California host all sorts of musical events, beer and wine tasting parties and even knitting circles. No, the 2% refers to people who test in the top two percent of the population, not just the top 2% of people who try to join Mensa. For any person taken off the street at random, the odds that they will be able to qualify for Mensa are 1 in 50. As you note, the 1 in 67,000 figure would be the odds of picking a person off the street at random and finding that they already were a member of Mensa. This is not relevant to the statistical probability that some given individual will qualify for Mensa. I will not divulge whether I am a member of Mensa or not. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2014, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/82 "2014-04-16T05:53:06Z")
Back in the 80s, I bought a book of Mensa brain teasers/sample test questions. One math problem I found in it I was very proud to be able to figure out the formula: _Postulated is a molecule constructed in layers with a different number of atoms in each layer. The first layer contains one atom; the second layer contains 1 + 2 atoms; the third layer contains 1 + 2 + 3 atoms; and so on. Given that the molecule has one million layers, how many atoms does it contain?_166,667,166,667,000,000 Today I couldn’t tell you how I figured it out to save my life, but the formula _(x[sup]3[/sup] + 3x[sup]2[/sup] + 2x) /6_ gives the exact answer. I mean, the _(x[sup]2[/sup] + x)/2_ is famous and easy, but how the hell did it occur to me to multiply that by _(x + 2)/3_? Anyway, interspersed among the puzzles and brain teasers were what I can only describe as _testimonials_ extolling the benefits of Mensa membership, and some stories about how even Mensans can have brain farts (I particularly enjoyed the one about the Mensan who vacuumed up some ants in his kitchen, then decided to gas them to death by blowing out the pilot light on his range, opening the gas tap, and sucking natural gas up into the vacuum cleaner bag). The other anecdote I vividly recall was a Mensan musing about the great times he and his wife would have with all the other Mensans at their get-togethers at a regional park. The only annoying thing from his point of view was that he and his wife (and sometimes a couple of friends) would bring a bottle or two of champagne, and mingle with their intellectual peers as they sipped champagne out of little plastic champagne saucers,\* the kind you get at the party supply store. This led to a lot of boorish Mensans hitting them up for a glass of champagne, a problem that they solved by pouring their champagne into empty beer cans. I couldn’t fault them on etiquette (or practicality) grounds; it just left me feeling that were I to find myself in such a group, I’d probably encounter a lot of behavior that would strike me as “petty.” It was largely on the strength of that reaction that I did not bother to send for the qualifying test, or otherwise pursue membership. \*It was the 80s. It was still possible to find a park where people at a private party could drink some alcohol without landing in jail. ---
**Author:** ![D18](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@D18](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D18)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2014, 2:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/83 "2014-04-16T14:08:13Z")
Based on some further reading inspired by [this thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=721007), it looks like one answer to the OP is: [twice as likely](http://www.iqcomparisonsite.com/SexDifferences.aspx) if you’re male rather than female. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 16, 2014, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/84 "2014-04-16T14:46:15Z")
I’ve been toying with the idea of joining for years so I looked up my local chapter. Their only regular activities are scheduled in Milwaukee, and there is nothing at all on their calendar in the next year locally. I woulda thought Madison and not Milwaukee was the intellectual heart of the state, but I guess this shows just how dumb I am. So no Mensa for me. ---
**Author:** ![GreenElf](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de053/32.png) [@GreenElf](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenElf)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 12:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/85 "2014-04-17T12:23:32Z")
My pre-1994 SAT score is barely too low to qualify me, and I don’t have any other school records such as the PSAT. I would have put just a little more effort on the SAT math section if I’d known it was a qualifying test for Mensa. I’d like to join Mensa, but I’m afraid that in my middle age, I wouldn’t pass the Mensa test because 1) it’s been years since I’ve been in school, so I’m less adept at taking timed tests and 2) after too many years wasted away outside of academia while watching TV and drinking beer, too many brain cells have died off. Maybe they could start a group for people in the top 5% IQ called Mensa Light, Almost Genius, or Pretty Dang Smart. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 12:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/86 "2014-04-17T12:38:45Z")
> [@GreenElf](#): > > My pre-1994 SAT score is barely too low to qualify me, and I don’t have any other school records such as the PSAT. I would have put just a little more effort on the SAT math section if I’d known it was a qualifying test for Mensa. I’d like to join Mensa, but I’m afraid that in my middle age, I wouldn’t pass the Mensa test because 1) it’s been years since I’ve been in school, so I’m less adept at taking timed tests and 2) after too many years wasted away outside of academia while watching TV and drinking beer, too many brain cells have died off. Maybe they could start a group for people in the top 5% IQ called Mensa Light, Almost Genius, or Pretty Dang Smart. Yeah, I feel lucky I have earlier qualifying test scores, as I’m quite sure my mind has begun to crumble the past couple decades. ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 1:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/87 "2014-04-17T13:44:56Z")
MENSA is for morons … > [@Yllaria](#): > > Once you’ve got Mensa down, you can check out [Triple Nine](http://www.triplenine.org/main/admission.asp). Here’s where you submit your 2390 SAT score. ---
**Author:** ![D18](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/c57346/32.png) [@D18](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/D18)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/88 "2014-04-17T15:07:43Z")
> [@GreenElf](#): > > I’d like to join Mensa, but I’m afraid that in my middle age, I wouldn’t pass the Mensa test because 1) it’s been years since I’ve been in school, so I’m less adept at taking timed tests and 2) after too many years wasted away outside of academia while watching TV and drinking beer, too many brain cells have died off. Some of the tests American Mensa uses are [age-adjusted](http://www.us.mensa.org/join/testing/scoreevaluation/), so unless your cognitive decline has been worse than expected for a guy your age, that shouldn’t make much of a difference. Whether it’s beer-adjusted, I can’t say;) **BoyoJim** , you mentioned a lack of activity in your area - there is an annual meeting ([this year’s](http://ag2014.us.mensa.org/)is in Boston) so if you were able to get away to those, it might be worth it for you to join. Or if you really had the gumption, you could probably organize events in Madison under the umbrella of the Milwaukee chapter. My chapter is located in the largest local city, but we do have events organized in smaller places. ---
**Author:** ![Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fiendish_astronaut/32/3295_2.png) [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiendish_Astronaut)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 4:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/89 "2014-04-17T16:38:35Z")
I was a member for a number of years and then quit. If I wanted to rejoin would I have to take a new test - even though I scored very highly first time around? I feel I wouldn’t perform quite as well this time due to university happening in between… ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/90 "2014-04-17T19:39:34Z")
> [@watchwolf49](#): > > MENSA is for morons … > > Here’s where you submit your 2390 SAT score. Wow, you must have to be SUPER DUPER smart! They told me a perfect score was 1600. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 7:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/91 "2014-04-17T19:41:05Z")
> [@Fiendish\_Astronaut](#): > > I was a member for a number of years and then quit. If I wanted to rejoin would I have to take a new test - even though I scored very highly first time around? I feel I wouldn’t perform quite as well this time due to university happening in between… No, once you’re in you can re-up without re-testing even if you lapse. I saw that the other day while I was browsing their membership criteria. ---
**Author:** ![Rhythmdvl](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/85f322/32.png) [@Rhythmdvl](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Rhythmdvl)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 7:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/92 "2014-04-17T19:49:46Z")
“Postulated is a molecule”? Please tell me that’s idiomatic in math or science circles. ---
**Author:** ![Boyo\_Jim](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/87869e/32.png) [@Boyo\_Jim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Boyo_Jim)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 7:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/93 "2014-04-17T19:52:54Z")
> [@D18](#): > > Some of the tests American Mensa uses are [age-adjusted](http://www.us.mensa.org/join/testing/scoreevaluation/), so unless your cognitive decline has been worse than expected for a guy your age, that shouldn’t make much of a difference. Whether it’s beer-adjusted, I can’t say;) > > **BoyoJim** , you mentioned a lack of activity in your area - there is an annual meeting ([this year’s](http://ag2014.us.mensa.org/)is in Boston) so if you were able to get away to those, it might be worth it for you to join. Or if you really had the gumption, you could probably organize events in Madison under the umbrella of the Milwaukee chapter. My chapter is located in the largest local city, but we do have events organized in smaller places. Yes, I see there is a monthly dinner down in Rockford, IL, which is further away from me than Milwaukee, and some other place, also further away, maybe once a quarter. It appears the Rockford event is poaching into the territory that’s under the auspices of the Chicago Mensa. Do they fight wars with each other? ---
**Author:** ![watchwolf49](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/e9c0ed/32.png) [@watchwolf49](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/watchwolf49)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 9:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/94 "2014-04-17T21:06:56Z")
> [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > Wow, you must have to be SUPER DUPER smart! They told me a perfect score was 1600. You must be old … they added a new section for another 800 points for a total of 2400 … although I believe they’ve returned to just the two sections now for a total of 1600 again. ---
**Author:** ![Learjeff](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/94ad74/32.png) [@Learjeff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Learjeff)\ **Post date:** [April 17, 2014, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/95 "2014-04-17T22:20:40Z")
> [@Sister\_Vigilante](#): > > John DiFool: I quit because it costs money and all I got was a small magazine where people talked above me … Oh, so, it’s like The New Yorker? > [@Boyo\_Jim](#): > > And why a psychologist? I mean, sure, there is maybe something wrong with anyone who applies in the first place… 😛 That’s a bit like asking why you’d ask a physician (or PA) to give a medical exam. It’s within their specialty. I knew a very smart and knowledgeable man who was a Mensa member. I knew him all my life, like a beloved uncle, though didn’t know he was a Mensa member until his funeral. He could win any argument. I remember him nearly convincing me, around 1990, that Nelson Mandela was evil and would ruin South Africa if he got the chance. All I can say is, it’s a good thing that being smart doesn’t entitle you to make all the decisions. ---
**Author:** ![panache45](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/panache45/32/64_2.png) [@panache45](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/panache45)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/96 "2014-04-18T06:05:14Z")
Does MENSA still accept SAT scores for membership? I got 1600, but that was 51 years ago. Today, I can barely spell SAT. I’m assuming Triple Nine requires a current test, so that’s out. But anyway, I’ve survived all these years without joining MENSA, and I doubt membership would change anything. But it’d be nice to have something to frame and hang on the wall, to impress the cats. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 7:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/97 "2014-04-18T07:56:08Z")
If TV were accurate, mensa meetings would be a bunch of guys showing each other their inventions and writing equations on a chalkboard. And either there’d be no girls or the girls would be dressed frumpily. Either hijinks or world domination would ensue. In reality, it’s average-looking people (and even some good-looking people), Dope-like banter, and beer. …which is good. Except that nowadays finding free social groups / group activities is very easy, including if you were only interested in intellectual stuff. So I don’t think it’s worth the fees / trouble for most people now. ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [April 18, 2014, 8:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/98 "2014-04-18T08:00:58Z")
> [@Lukeinva](#): > > Exactly. They collect dues from the members, ergo ipso facto more members = more dues = a stronger “club.” The last thing they want is membership to dwindle. Well, I know plenty of people that did the test multiple times before they passed and could join. So I’m sure there are far more that took it, failed, and that was that. However, once you pass, you never need to redo the test. Which is just as well, I do feel I somewhat fluked it. ---
**Author:** ![MLS](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/919ad9/32.png) [@MLS](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MLS)\ **Post date:** [April 19, 2014, 6:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/99 "2014-04-19T18:49:56Z")
> [@Mijin](#): > > Well, I know plenty of people that did the test multiple times before they passed and could join. So I’m sure there are far more that took it, failed, and that was that. > > However, once you pass, you never need to redo the test. Which is just as well, I do feel I somewhat fluked it. I used to be a local test proctor, (and held several other local offices as well), and I think your first statement is incorrect. Once you have taken the official proctored test, you cannot re-take it. You could have a psychologist give you a different test, or submit prior evidence, but the practice effect would make a re-test invalid. However, if you’re at a Mensa event and someone does or says something stupid (it happens), you will often hear the demand “Re-test!” You are correct that once you’ve been admitted, you’re always eligible, even decades later. ---
**Author:** ![smokey78](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/82dd89/32.png) [@smokey78](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/smokey78)\ **Post date:** [April 20, 2014, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338/100 "2014-04-20T14:37:44Z")
sharing my story, in 2005 I was bored and thought maybe I could join Mensa to meet like-minded people. The nearest test was in Austin, so not a bad drive from San Antonio, the test was filled with logical puzzles where I simply lost interest midway and just not paid attention to the test proctor’s story where you had to pick whatever happened/how many bats the group ate, etc. Years later, I didn’t too much about not being qualified as I found other interests. One thing I did notice was that I assumed it would be a bunch of older professionals trying to join. the six or seven taking the test with me were as young as me (20s to 30s) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338.md?page=4) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-probability-that-id-get-into-mensa/552338.md?page=6)