# What is the worst case scenario for Japan right now? (re: Nuclear plant) **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [March 13, 2011, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494 "2011-03-13T03:34:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![The\_Jay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b77776/32.png) [@The\_Jay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Jay)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/1 "2011-03-13T03:34:26Z")
This may have already been asked but I didn’t see a thread on it. What is the worst thing that could happen with the Japanese nuclear plant, and what sort of devastation are we talking about? ---
**Author:** ![AndrewL](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@AndrewL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndrewL)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 3:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/2 "2011-03-13T03:49:23Z")
The realistic worst-case scenario is a Three Mile Island type incident, where the core melts down within the containment vessel. The Fukushima reactor complex will be ruined and un-salvageable, with a lengthy and expensive cleanup process. Some radioactive gases will be released, which will cause no detectable harm to the environment or people living nearby, but will be blared in large headlines in the media and used by anti-nuclear activists to scare people. In the longer term, Japan will be reluctant to build any more nuclear power plants, instead choosing oil or other fossil fuels. This will in turn cause far more environmental harm and illness than the Fukushima reactor’s meltdown did. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Jay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/b77776/32.png) [@The\_Jay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Jay)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 3:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/3 "2011-03-13T03:58:11Z")
So me reading that it could wipe out Japan was rubbish and I was a fool to give that idea any measurable amount of thought and consideration? ---
**Author:** ![AndrewL](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@AndrewL](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AndrewL)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 3:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/4 "2011-03-13T03:59:36Z")
Pretty much. A reactor meltdown of this type can’t cause more than localized damage. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 4:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/5 "2011-03-13T04:31:42Z")
The worst case is a full meltdown that would breach the bottom of the building. What exploded was the outer containment building which filled with hydrogen gas and exploded. The inner building containing the core is still intact. [A visual of what is going on](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/world/japan-nuclear-reactors-and-seismic-activity/). ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 4:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/6 "2011-03-13T04:41:39Z")
Mothra. No, Gamera. No, wait, a _battle_ between Mothra and Gamera. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 5:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/7 "2011-03-13T05:02:48Z")
The plant is probably already unsalvageable. Sea water is so corrosive that using it as coolant wrecks a reactor. Of the three reactors is the plant, one is already gone. With leaks reported at the other two, they possibly will be next. The nuclear industry uses a scale of 1-7 for problems, with Chernobyl a 7. This is currently a 4. The plant may reopen, and it might close permanently. That is the realistic worst-case scenario at this point, unless things have changed drastically in the last hour. Breaching the containment dome by overheated melting rods is a horrible environmental disaster that could have vast reach, with the details totally unpredictable ahead of time. You need to distinguish that kind of meltdown from the term that is wrongly being used in the press now. Fuel rods within the reactor may have melted from the heat, so that is a “meltdown” of sorts, but as long as they stay within containment they have no more effect melted than they do as working reactor rods. Wiping out Japan is unimaginably silly. Two atomic bombs didn’t wipe out Japan. And a nuclear plant cannot explode in such a fashion. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 5:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/8 "2011-03-13T05:04:44Z")
> [@](#): > > Mothra. > > No, Gamera. > > No, wait, a battle between Mothra and Gamera. I thought that was a _best_-case scenario. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 6:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/9 "2011-03-13T06:35:57Z")
the assumption is that the control rods reset to their shut-off position which takes days to cool down. If the rods are out of place then that makes things worse. ---
**Author:** ![wowellness](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/ebca7d/32.png) [@wowellness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wowellness)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 6:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/10 "2011-03-13T06:53:14Z")
What are your thoughts on this one? I have no idea but it certainly scares me more than the reactor meltdowns. I’ve now read quite a bit on meltdown stuff but there doesn’t seem to be much mention of the pools. “In addition to the reactor cores, the storage pool for highly radioactive irradiated nuclear fuel is also at risk. The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago.” ---
**Author:** ![MarcusF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/67e7ee/32.png) [@MarcusF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarcusF)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 8:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/11 "2011-03-13T08:33:02Z")
> [@wowellness](#): > > What are your thoughts on this one? I have no idea but it certainly scares me more than the reactor meltdowns. I’ve now read quite a bit on meltdown stuff but there doesn’t seem to be much mention of the pools. > > “In addition to the reactor cores, the storage pool for highly radioactive irradiated nuclear fuel is also at risk. The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago.” Can you give us a source for this? You put it in quotes but without attribution. At first sight looks like scaremongering. To keep a sense of proportion, it now looks as though the death toll for this disaster will be 10000+. Even if this report was accurate and the worst happened, deaths due the the nuclear accident will be dwarfed by those caused by the initial quake and tsunami. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 8:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/12 "2011-03-13T08:41:28Z")
Where is **Una Persson** when we need her? This stuff is custom built for her expertise. I’d love to hear her take on this stuff. (maybe she is busy fixing Japan…seems plausible and reasonable for her absence here 😉 ). ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 8:50am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/13 "2011-03-13T08:50:07Z")
> [@MarcusF](#): > > Can you give us a source for this? You put it in quotes but without attribution. At first sight looks like scaremongering. > > To keep a sense of proportion, it now looks as though the death toll for this disaster will be 10000+. Even if this report was accurate and the worst happened, deaths due the the nuclear accident will be dwarfed by those caused by the initial quake and tsunami. It’s from this page [http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/explosion-at-japan-nuclear-plant-updates-and-video.html](http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/explosion-at-japan-nuclear-plant-updates-and-video.html) ---
**Author:** ![MarcusF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/67e7ee/32.png) [@MarcusF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MarcusF)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 9:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/14 "2011-03-13T09:13:51Z")
> [@levdrakon](#): > > It’s from this page [http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/explosion-at-japan-nuclear-plant-updates-and-video.html](http://wallstcheatsheet.com/breaking-news/economy/explosion-at-japan-nuclear-plant-updates-and-video.html) Ah! I see it: > [@](#): > > Anti-nuclear expert Kevin Kamp explains the nightmare scenario in Fukushma, via Forbes and the Institute for Public Accuracy: Not exactly an unbiased source but I did some googling and it is a real hazard. See [this](http://www.nrc.gov/reading-rm/doc-collections/nuregs/staff/sr0933/sec3/082r3.html)Nuclear Regualtory Commission report and [this](http://www.nap.edu/openbook.php?record_id=11263&page=38)chapter from a Board on Radioactive Waste Management report. As I read it, definitely not good but a lot easier to deal with than the problems with the actual core as it takes days to happen and all it needs is to top up the water level with a fire hose to prevent it. ---
**Author:** ![Arkcon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/96bed5/32.png) [@Arkcon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arkcon)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/15 "2011-03-13T11:01:44Z")
> [@The\_Jay](#): > > So me reading that it could wipe out Japan was rubbish and I was a fool to give that idea any measurable amount of thought and consideration? Huh. Funny. Back in the '80’s there was a sci-fi book that detailed precisely that – Japan being mostly destroyed in an earthquake, resulting in mass emigration, and a boost to technological advancement world-wide from the knowledge importation. The author of your new story must have read that old sci-fi. ---
**Author:** ![Clawdio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d07c76/32.png) [@Clawdio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Clawdio)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 1:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/16 "2011-03-13T13:45:25Z")
Here is a link to the NEI which has been providing periodic updates the last few days: [http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/information-on-the-japanese-earthquake-and-reactors-in-that-region](http://www.nei.org/newsandevents/information-on-the-japanese-earthquake-and-reactors-in-that-region) From the lastest update on Fukushima Daiichi where things are the worst: > [@](#): > > The maximum reported dose at the site is 128 millirem per hour, which is less than the annual average dose for commercial airline flight crews and far less than the radiation the average American is exposed to per year from all sources (see the the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s Web page on radiation protection). [http://www.epa.gov/radiation/understand/calculate.html](http://www.epa.gov/radiation/understand/calculate.html) ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/17 "2011-03-13T16:44:05Z")
[Fukushima Nuclear Accident – a simple and accurate explanation](http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/53461/fukushima-nuclear-accident-simple-and-accurate-explanation). > [@](#): > > Now, where does that leave us? > > •The plant is safe now and will stay safe. > > •Japan is looking at an INES Level 4 Accident: Nuclear accident with local consequences. That is bad for the company that owns the plant, but not for anyone else. > > •Some radiation was released when the pressure vessel was vented. All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed). A very small amount of Cesium was released, as well as Iodine. If you were sitting on top of the plants’ chimney when they were venting, you should probably give up smoking to return to your former life expectancy. The Cesium and Iodine isotopes were carried out to the sea and will never be seen again. > > •There was some limited damage to the first containment. That means that some amounts of radioactive Cesium and Iodine will also be released into the cooling water, but no Uranium or other nasty stuff (the Uranium oxide does not “dissolve” in the water). There are facilities for treating the cooling water inside the third containment. The radioactive Cesium and Iodine will be removed there and eventually stored as radioactive waste in terminal storage. > > •The seawater used as cooling water will be activated to some degree. Because the control rods are fully inserted, the Uranium chain reaction is not happening. That means the “main” nuclear reaction is not happening, thus not contributing to the activation. The intermediate radioactive materials (Cesium and Iodine) are also almost gone at this stage, because the Uranium decay was stopped a long time ago. This further reduces the activation. The bottom line is that there will be some low level of activation of the seawater, which will also be removed by the treatment facilities. > > •The seawater will then be replaced over time with the “normal” cooling water > > •The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change. > > •Fuel rods and the entire plant will be checked for potential damage. This will take about 4-5 years. > > •The safety systems on all Japanese plants will be upgraded to withstand a 9.0 earthquake and tsunami (or worse) > > •I believe the most significant problem will be a prolonged power shortage. About half of Japan’s nuclear reactors will probably have to be inspected, reducing the nation’s power generating capacity by 15%. This will probably be covered by running gas power plants that are usually only used for peak loads to cover some of the base load as well. That will increase your electricity bill, as well as lead to potential power shortages during peak demand, in Japan. Can we stop the scaremongering? ---
**Author:** ![fumster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/e9c0ed/32.png) [@fumster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fumster)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 4:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/18 "2011-03-13T16:47:08Z")
The long term effect is that it will destroy the earth’s climate. Not from the accident itself, but because the anti-nuclear panic will mean we will rely more on fossil fuels. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 4:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/19 "2011-03-13T16:50:42Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > [Fukushima Nuclear Accident – a simple and accurate explanation](http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/53461/fukushima-nuclear-accident-simple-and-accurate-explanation). > Can we stop the scaremongering? That article was pretty rah-rah about the safety of the plant. Personally, I doubt anything too serious will happen, but as an engineer with 30 years of experience, I’ve seen enough systems fail in weird and wonderful ways to make me a little leery about people claiming that “there’s no need to panic.” ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/20 "2011-03-13T17:08:46Z")
> [@kaylasdad99](#): > > Mothra. > > No, Gamera. > > No, wait, a _battle_ between Mothra and Gamera. Flying turtles and moths are cute but hardly worst case scenario material. At any moment, [**Mechagodzilla**](http://www.tohokingdom.com/kaiju/mechagodzilla_showa.htm#74) may stomp on Tokyo. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494.md?page=2)