# What is the worst case scenario for Japan right now? (re: Nuclear plant) **URL:** \ **Category:** Factual Questions\ **Created:** [March 13, 2011, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494 "2011-03-13T03:34:26Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/21 "2011-03-13T17:09:41Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > That article was pretty rah-rah about the safety of the plant. Personally, I doubt anything too serious will happen, but as an engineer with 30 years of experience, I’ve seen enough systems fail in weird and wonderful ways to make me a little leery about people claiming that “there’s no need to panic.” Yeah, that’s why in another thread I posted this. > [@](#): > > There’s an interesting commentary from the engineering journal IEEE Spectrum: [Worse than the worst case scenario](http://spectrum.ieee.org/energywise/energy/nuclear/japan-nuclear-accident-worse-than-worst-again). But saying that in general is not the same as an analysis of the specific incident in front of you. The situation at the plant may have changed drastically in the last few hours, true. It’s not a good situation in any way. But it’s also not like the gulf oil spill, where the problem was nearly inaccessible. The problem is currently being addressed, actively. Because of events like those in the gulf, we’ve gotten to a point where anybody who isn’t giving a doomsday scenario is automatically disbelieved. I’d think that you as an engineer would be more disgusted by that than most people. That attitude is harmful to everything and everybody. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 6:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/22 "2011-03-13T18:57:23Z")
> [@wowellness](#): > > …“In addition to the reactor cores, the storage pool for highly radioactive irradiated nuclear fuel is also at risk. The pool cooling water must be continuously circulated. Without circulation, the still thermally hot irradiated nuclear fuel in the storage pools will begin to boil off the cooling water. Within a day or two, the pool’s water could completely boil away. Without cooling water, the irradiated nuclear fuel could spontaneously combust in an exothermic reaction. Since the storage pools are not located within containment, a catastrophic radioactivity release to the environment could occur. Up to 100 percent of the volatile radioactive Cesium-137 content of the pools could go up in flames and smoke, to blow downwind over large distances. Given the large quantity of irradiated nuclear fuel in the pool, the radioactivity release could be worse than the Chernobyl nuclear reactor catastrophe of 25 years ago.” > [@beowulff](#): > > That article was pretty rah-rah about the safety of the plant. Personally, I doubt anything too serious will happen, but as an engineer with 30 years of experience, I’ve seen enough systems fail in weird and wonderful ways to make me a little leery about people claiming that “there’s no need to panic.” What **beowulff** said. They have a serious problem with that reactor and that power station. Which isotopes of Cesium and Iodine are they claiming are “almost gone?” (Quote from **Exapno** ’s quoted report, 5th bullet point) While Iodine 123 has a half life of 13 hours, considering Iodine 131 has a half life of 8 days, and Cesium-137 has a half-life of 30 years, I’m not so sanguine about all of the radioactive gases being “gone,” especially if they’re making statements like, > [@](#): > > “All radioactive isotopes from the activated steam have gone (decayed).” I have a hard time believing that statement, given the cited half-lives above. What definition are they using for “activated steam?” Does it cover all gaseous radioactive elements that may have been vented? I don’t believe they have a very good handle yet on how much radioactive crap got vented from the reactor vessel and blown out to sea. I doubt they’ve been able to do a fissionable products inventory, and I’d really like to see data from instruments monitoring that gas plume, if there are any at all. Thank God for an offshore wind. I’d be really interested if the U.S. managed to get off its ass and send some sampling aircraft/drones into the gas plume. Considering some of the attempted cover-ups in the Japanese nuclear power industry, e.g. [Monju’s 1995 secondary coolant leak](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monju_Nuclear_Power_Plant), the inspection falsification scandal of Tokyo Electric Power Company’s reactors in 2002 (listed under Accidents in the wiki for [Japanese Nuclear Power](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_power_in_Japan), I also don’t have absolute faith in assurances that everything is under control or fine. [Containment structures don’t explode from high hydrogen concentrations if everything’s fine.](http://www.ndtv.com/article/world/japan-tsunami-aftermath-explosion-heard-at-fukushima-nuclear-plant-say-reports-91217) (Link has embedded 2.5 minute video, purporting to show the explosion at Fukushima.) Seawater isn’t pumped through a reactor core if everything’s fine. An example of a statement I find misleading, if technically correct, is > [@](#): > > The reactor core will then be dismantled and transported to a processing facility, just like during a regular fuel change. Um, no. If fuel elements melted, de-fueling and decommissioning this core is going to be a long way from a regular fuel change, for the reasons previously cited in this thread. If fuel elements melted, see the decommissioning efforts at TMI for an idea of the problems they’ll be facing. Don’t get me wrong, I am very pro-nuclear power, and I would love to see the U.S. adopt a much larger concentration of nuclear power generation than currently, even after this disaster in Japan. And clearly this is nothing like Chernobyl. But it’s already worse than TMI—I don’t recall reading accounts about TMI of radiation levels within the control room in excess of 1000 times background, do you? Accordingly, these accidents in Japan are serious accidents that are ongoing, and since its ongoing, we’re not going to know everything just yet. Therefore, I think that statements like the ones **Exapno Mapcase** first quoted are a little Pollyanna-ish, that’s all. Completely agree with the gist of **Exapno** ’s quoted report—this isn’t Chernobyl, things are under control—I’m just taking issue with what I perceive as an incredibly optimistic tone. As far as **wowellness** ’s post about spent rods leading to disaster as their cooling pool evaporates, I first thought the person is thinking about something like the [Kyshtym disaster](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kyshtym_disaster) in 1957. The wiki for the [Spent Fuel Pool](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spent_fuel_pool) (SFP). Here are some .pdfs discussing [reports](http://www.princeton.edu/sgs/publications/sgs/pdf/11%202-3%20Author%20Rev%20of%20NRC%20p213-223.pdf) analyzing the risks of spent fuel at nuclear power generating stations in the U.S. Among the hazards analyzed were a terrorists or accidents draining away the cooling water within the SFP. I could totally be misreading this, but for some reason, [Boiling Water Reactors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Boiling_water_reactor), like the one at Fukushima, seem to have their SFP’s above grade; [Pressurized Water Reactors](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pressurized_water_reactor), conversely, seem to have their SFP’s below grade. I don’t know, but it seems a reasonable inference the SFP at Fukushima may be above grade, and above grade, it might have lost some integrity from the earthquake. Or it may be just fine, I can’t find any info either way. Removing the fuel and fixing a SFP can be a rather involved process, see this press release [here](http://www.euronuclear.org/e-news/e-news-21/eurex.htm) for some detail as to the cleanup activities required. A roundtable discussion on the safety of SFPs may be found [here](http://www.cfr.org/weapons-of-mass-destruction/nuclear-spent-fuel-pools-secure/p8967). NUREG-1738, _Technical Study of Spent Fuel Pool Accident Risk at Decommissioning Nuclear Power Plants_ is a lengthy report discussing those all of those risks, among others. I can’t find a downloadable .pdf, but I imagine it would answer many questions about this topic. A .pdf of a letter stating the NUREG-1738 overstates the risk from SFPs may be found [here](http://pbadupws.nrc.gov/docs/ML0112/ML011230263.pdf). Pages 44-50 of, _Safety and security of commercial spent nuclear fuel storage: public report_ By National Research Council, Committee on the Safety and Security of Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Storage. (On Google Books) goes into more detail. I’d quote it, but for its size. A [site selling simulator software for reactor plant personnel](http://www.microsimtech.com/sfp/default.htm) dealing with SFPs has a [helpful quiz](http://www.microsimtech.com/sfpquiz/default.htm) on the hazards of SFP loss of coolant. Their “correct” answers mention a few days to boil off the water, and consequences of doing so including: a fire, prompt deaths in the 10s, and cancer deaths in the 10^5 range, primarily due to dispersal of Cs-137. Keeping the spent fuel covered with water avoids all of these problems, of course. Thanks for the Spectrum link, **Exapno**. I agree that the situation is being addressed vigorously, as it needs to be. I also agree with your comments doomsday scenarios and how they get in the way of understanding what’s going on. Has **robby** , or other NukE’s chimed in on this topic yet? Be interested to read what they have to say. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2011, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/23 "2011-03-13T19:14:36Z")
[Latest press release](http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031312-e.html) from TEPCO, Tokyo Electric Power Company, on the status of their Fukushima power station. Highlights: > [@](#): > > We are currently coordinating with the relevant authorities and > departments as to how to secure the cooling water to cool down > the water in the spent nuclear fuel pool. Which I’m interpreting to mean that the SFP has water in it, therefore the pool has sufficient integrity, and the issue is restarting cooling of that water. That’s a relief. Given the proximity of the SFP to the reactor, and looking at the video of the explosion, that’s a pleasant surprise. ---
**Author:** ![TokyoBayer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tokyobayer/32/13989_2.png) [@TokyoBayer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TokyoBayer)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 3:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/24 "2011-03-14T15:20:00Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > [Latest press release](http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031312-e.html) from TEPCO, Tokyo Electric Power Company, on the status of their Fukushima power station. I am not a nuclear engineer. I was an electrical engineer, though, so technical stuff doesn’t completely flow over my head. I also support nuclear power as the lessor of a number of evils. However, my impression, watching the news conference my Tepco, is that I would never, ever believe anything they said. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/25 "2011-03-14T15:39:12Z")
> [@Gray\_Ghost](#): > > [Latest press release](http://www.tepco.co.jp/en/press/corp-com/release/11031312-e.html) from TEPCO, Tokyo Electric Power Company, on the status of their Fukushima power station. Highlights: > Which I’m interpreting to mean that the SFP has water in it, therefore the pool has sufficient integrity, and the issue is restarting cooling of that water. That’s a relief. Given the proximity of the SFP to the reactor, and looking at the video of the explosion, that’s a pleasant surprise. There have been a variety of reports, with very few details, that some of the fuel rods at one, possibly more, of the reactors had been fully exposed. Apparently more water was then pumped in. The problem seems to be that the pressure inside the containment dome makes it difficult to force the water in. I’m posting this at close to noon EDT. I’ve been searching for recent articles on Google News but I’ve been finding that even the ones that are listed as having been posted only a few minutes ago actually have datelines that are hours old. The composite scenario that I’m taking away is that it is likely the fuel rods will melt but highly unlikely that any breach of the containment dome will occur. Except that a controlled breach to vent hydrogen gas may be used. Presumably that would be at the top rather than the bottom. The fuel rods melt down, in both senses. It continues to be a very bad situation, but not a worse case one. ---
**Author:** ![GargoyleWB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gargoylewb/32/199_2.png) [@GargoyleWB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GargoyleWB)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 4:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/26 "2011-03-14T16:13:18Z")
> [@sh1bu1](#): > > The long term effect is that it will destroy the earth’s climate. Not from the accident itself, but because the anti-nuclear panic will mean we will rely more on fossil fuels. Sadly, this. My relatives have already phoned me (“that scientist guy”) leading off with “See! This is why nuclear will never be a good idea!” Even though no one has died, and a handful have received light dentist’s-visit levels of exposure, the hysteria surrounding the mere mention of the word “radiation” defies rational discussion. “Mom…even though this reactor was 40 years old, is an obsolete design, and was hit with an earthquake 10 times more powerful than it was rated for, and even if it melts down, it will all likely be contained.” “But is it ok for me to go outside? Should I plant a garden this year?” ---
**Author:** ![anson2995](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/c77e96/32.png) [@anson2995](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/anson2995)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2011, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/27 "2011-03-14T17:18:45Z")
> [@AndrewL](#): > > The realistic worst-case scenario is a Three Mile Island type incident, where the core melts down within the containment vessel. The Fukushima reactor complex will be ruined and un-salvageable, with a lengthy and expensive cleanup process. Some radioactive gases will be released, which will cause no detectable harm to the environment or people living nearby, but will be blared in large headlines in the media and used by anti-nuclear activists to scare people. I agree, but that’s assuming that the earthquake hasn’t damaged the containment systems, and that aftershocks in the 8.0 range don’t cause more damage. This seems unlikely, but the magnitude of the quake has already pushed us into the realm of the unlikely. Japan has 54 nuclear power plants, 51 of which came through just fine. Only eight others are offline, mostly due to problems with the electrical grid rather than the nuclear plant itself. But half of their electricity production comes from coal-fired plants, and many more of those plants have been affected by the quake. [This article](https://www.platts.com/RSSFeedDetailedNews/RSSFeed/ElectricPower/8652495), on the impact the disaster will have on worldwide coal prices, has the following quote from an analyst: > [@](#): > > “On the Pacific side of Japan, which was hit by the tsunami, these power plants, as far as I know, will be out for maybe three or four months or possibly longer. One power station has two vessels grounded on its pier. We are losing some coal-fired plants. I think it will be bearish for the market in the mid-term. … There is no increase in demand for coal because in Japan there is limited capacity to transfer power from the western to the eastern side of the country.” I would suspect that their natural gas infrastructure was probably devastated, and their ability to store and deliver gasoline and other oil was probably also dealt a blow. When you look at it in that context, the nuclear plants actually held up better than any of the other energy sources. ---
**Author:** ![AnalogSignal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/analogsignal/32/1085_2.png) [@AnalogSignal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AnalogSignal)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 5:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/28 "2011-03-15T05:47:35Z")
[http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?pagewanted=2&ref=world](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?pagewanted=2&ref=world) > [@](#): > > “We are on the brink. **We are now facing the worst-case scenario** ,” said Hiroaki Koide, a senior reactor engineering specialist at the Research Reactor Institute of Kyoto University. “We can assume that the containment vessel at Reactor No. 2 is already breached. If there is heavy melting inside the reactor, large amounts of radiation will most definitely be released.” ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/29 "2011-03-15T05:56:37Z")
> [@AnalogSignal](#): > > [http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?pagewanted=2&ref=world](http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/15/world/asia/15nuclear.html?pagewanted=2&ref=world) What worries me about that is lazy reporting. What does that mean? Three Mile Island had a meltdown. Within four hours half the uranium melted. That was super bad but the reactor vessel contained it. If the reactor vessel didn’t there was the containment vessel. If this guy’s (gal’s) report is correct that the “containment” vessel is breached then we are looking at a HUGE catastrophe ala Chernobyl. ---
**Author:** ![matt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@matt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/matt)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 7:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/30 "2011-03-15T07:05:20Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > What worries me about that is lazy reporting. > > What does that mean? > > Three Mile Island had a meltdown. Within four hours half the uranium melted. > > That was super bad but the reactor vessel contained it. > > If the reactor vessel didn’t there was the containment vessel. > > If this guy’s (gal’s) report is correct that the “containment” vessel is breached then we are looking at a HUGE catastrophe ala Chernobyl. Take a look at this cutaway and simplified diagram for a Mark 1 reactor: [http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BWR\_Mark\_I\_Containment,\_cutaway.jpg](http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BWR_Mark_I_Containment,_cutaway.jpg) [http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear\_power/nuclear\_power\_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html](http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html) The concern is that the wet well torus on reactor 2 is now breached, since its pressure dropped from 3 bar to atmospheric with something of a bang. The torus is outside the primary concrete “lightbulb” housing the reactor vessel, although it is still inside the concrete structure of the reactor building. The top of the reactor building (the bit with the steel frames) is the bit that has blown off on reactors 1 and 3. If reactor 2 suffers a full meltdown, there is pathway around the primary containment through the torus for radioactive material to escape. I don’t know if the torus can be sealed off from the primary containment, or whether the concrete surrounding the torus forms any sort of containment itself. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 7:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/31 "2011-03-15T07:24:36Z")
> [@matt](#): > > Take a look at this cutaway and simplified diagram for a Mark 1 reactor: > > [http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BWR\_Mark\_I\_Containment,\_cutaway.jpg](http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:BWR_Mark_I_Containment,_cutaway.jpg) > [http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear\_power/nuclear\_power\_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html](http://www.ucsusa.org/nuclear_power/nuclear_power_risk/safety/concerns-about-relying-on.html) > > The concern is that the wet well torus on reactor 2 is now breached, since its pressure dropped from 3 bar to atmospheric with something of a bang. The torus is outside the primary concrete “lightbulb” housing the reactor vessel, although it is still inside the concrete structure of the reactor building. The top of the reactor building (the bit with the steel frames) is the bit that has blown off on reactors 1 and 3. > > If reactor 2 suffers a full meltdown, there is pathway around the primary containment through the torus for radioactive material to escape. I don’t know if the torus can be sealed off from the primary containment, or whether the concrete surrounding the torus forms any sort of containment itself. So, has the reactor been breached? After that you have the containment vessel. You are suggesting that is breached. Not sure how that would happen. Hydrogen explosion crack it? I confess amazement in the Three Mile Island disaster that no one seem able to look at the damn room to assess what was happening. I would have hoped after that every reactor in the world took measures to be better. A camera in the room would seem to have done wonders at TMI. ---
**Author:** ![Eleusis](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f4b2a3/32.png) [@Eleusis](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eleusis)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/32 "2011-03-15T07:39:43Z")
Just to reiterate the consensus: [http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/](http://mitnse.com/2011/03/13/why-i-am-not-worried-about-japans-nuclear-reactors/) Seriously a very good and easy read of how these nuclear plants work. Click the side bar for more recent updates. ---
**Author:** ![matt](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/a6a055/32.png) [@matt](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/matt)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 7:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/33 "2011-03-15T07:45:45Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > So, has the reactor been breached? After that you have the containment vessel. You are suggesting that is breached. Not sure how that would happen. Hydrogen explosion crack it? > > I confess amazement in the Three Mile Island disaster that no one seem able to look at the damn room to assess what was happening. I would have hoped after that every reactor in the world took measures to be better. A camera in the room would seem to have done wonders at TMI. Re reactor 2: The reactor vessel has not been breached. The primary concrete containment has not been breached. The steel water-filled torus _may_ have been breached since it suffered an abrupt loss of pressure, but _there appear to be vents passing through the primary concrete containment to the steel torus_ and the torus is outside the primary containment. What that all adds up to, I don’t know. There’s a whole bunch of different circulating systems for passing water through the reactor vessel, and presumably it’s through one of these systems that seawater is being injected. There’s no information as to whether any pumping circulation has been achieved or if they’re just forcing in water and venting steam. The torus is supposed to act as a heat dump whereby steam in the primary containment can be condensed by contact with the torus water. You can only do that for so long before the torus water gets too hot, and then pressure builds and you have to vent. 3 atmospheres in the torus is nowhere near high enough pressure to worry about though, so who knows what happened. The amount of technical information coming out of this situation is pitiful and journalists seem utterly disinclined to seek it out. I’ve no idea why a whole bunch of General Electric people or technical guys operating the same kind of reactor (there are still other Mark 1 BWRs about) aren’t being interviewed. ---
**Author:** ![Gray\_Ghost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/c0e974/32.png) [@Gray\_Ghost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gray_Ghost)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/34 "2011-03-15T13:36:02Z")
I agree with you, **matt** , there’s been a dearth of good technical analysis concerning this plant and that you’d think GE would be chomping at the bit to provide it. [Latest AP story](http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/7471956.html) is that 140,000 people are sheltering in place to avoid radiation. > [@](#): > > Japanese officials told the International Atomic Energy Agency that the reactor fire was in a storage pond and that “radioactivity is being released directly into the atmosphere.” Long after the fire was extinguished, a Japanese official said the pool, where used nuclear fuel is kept cool, might be boiling. Sounds like the SFP may not be all right after all. I _really_ hope the spent fuel isn’t exposed and burning right now… Still not Chernobyl, but I don’t think this stays at a 4 on the oft-mentioned scale. ---
**Author:** ![johnpost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@johnpost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/johnpost)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/35 "2011-03-15T14:26:31Z")
temperatures are rising at reactor 5 and 6 storage pools as well. ---
**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 2:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/36 "2011-03-15T14:31:15Z")
> [@johnpost](#): > > temperatures are rising at reactor 5 and 6 storage pools as well. Reactors 5 and 6? At Fukushima Daiichi? ---
**Author:** ![yohan\_go](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/yohan_go/32/3620_2.png) [@yohan\_go](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/yohan_go)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/37 "2011-03-15T14:34:11Z")
You are right, it looks like it is now 6 on the oft-mentioned scale. [If Wiki is to be believed …](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Fukushima_nuclear_accidents) ---
**Author:** ![johnpost](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/f17d59/32.png) [@johnpost](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/johnpost)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 2:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/38 "2011-03-15T14:45:35Z")
> [@johnpost](#): > > temperatures are rising at reactor 5 and 6 storage pools as well. > [@levdrakon](#): > > Reactors 5 and 6? At Fukushima Daiichi? yes ---
**Author:** ![Cheshire\_Human](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@Cheshire\_Human](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheshire_Human)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 2:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/39 "2011-03-15T14:58:35Z")
> [@yohan\_go](#): > > You are right, it looks like it is now 6 on the oft-mentioned scale. [If Wiki is to be believed …](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timeline_of_the_Fukushima_nuclear_accidents) Wiki is not to be believed. Any idiot can edit it at any time. How much you want to bet much of the info on there is by mediocrities (or worse) who haven’t the vaguest idea what they are talking about? Even if an expert (without an agenda) is monitoring it, accurate info can’t come fast enough and be posted, as long as the expert is busy correcting or deleting misinformation. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2011, 3:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494/40 "2011-03-15T15:07:20Z")
There’s been a lot of what **beowulff** called “rah-rah” misinformation to compete with the panicmongering. It’s worth noting that on 3/13 this was posted: > [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > [Fukushima Nuclear Accident – a simple and accurate explanation](http://theenergycollective.com/barrybrook/53461/fukushima-nuclear-accident-simple-and-accurate-explanation). > > Now, where does that leave us? > > > [@](#): > > > > •The plant is safe now and will stay safe. > > Can we stop the scaremongering? …and today, two days later (3/15), the headline on CNN says “New Blast at Nuclear Plant.” It’s still difficult to determine through the popular media what’s actually happened and what’s still happening. If my own sifting through various sources is accurate (who knows?), the plant has suffered 3 explosions and a fire in 4 days; I thought I read somewhere that two of the hydrogen explosions breached reactor containment\* buildings\* but not containment _vessels_ themselves, but I can’t cite that. There’s also this issue with the spent fuel pool. Company propaganda should be taken with a grain of salt, _especially_ by people who doubt antinuclear sources because they assume they’re biased – like the company wouldn’t be? It’s a little too early for definite pronouncements of any kind, I think. We’ll learn more soon. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-the-worst-case-scenario-for-japan-right-now-re-nuclear-plant/574494.md?page=3)