# What is Trump's response if a missile attack is launched on the US embassy in Bagdhad **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [January 4, 2020, 10:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950 "2020-01-04T22:53:58Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 1:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/41 "2020-01-06T01:30:55Z")
I’m also thinking this’ll do better in Great Debates. It’s not about the horse race ---
**Author:** ![KarlGauss](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/karlgauss/32/3713_2.png) [@KarlGauss](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KarlGauss)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/42 "2020-01-06T01:35:53Z")
> [@Jonathan\_Chance](#): > > I’m also thinking this’ll do better in Great Debates. It’s not about the horse race Sure. I wasn’t sure where to put it myself. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 1:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/43 "2020-01-06T01:55:36Z")
> [@pool](#): > > Straight from the horse’s ass: > > Well if you believe Trump, he claims that the U.S. Has 52 Iranian targets already selected for attack if the Iranians attack the U.S. or any of its assets. > > [https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-trump-warns-iran-we-have-targeted-52-iranian-sites](https://www.foxnews.com/world/iran-trump-warns-iran-we-have-targeted-52-iranian-sites) I hate Trump and I definitely believe that 100% ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 2:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/44 "2020-01-06T02:01:48Z")
> [@Sherrerd](#): > > Is “extra-judicial killing” more to your liking? > > No, I’m not saying Soleimani was a good guy. I’m saying that the rationale for killing him given by the Trump Administration appears to require an extraordinary degree of faith in Trump’s honesty, and that many people will be unable to summon up that faith—given three years of experience of Trump. > > Two previous administrations were aware that Soleimani’s activities were, shall we say, not pro-USA. But they chose not to kill him\*—though there were plenty of opportunities—because the cost-benefit analysis said that killing him would harm Americans more than letting him live. > > Remember, this wasn’t a stateless terrorist. This was an accredited official of a sovereign state. Killing him was a serious matter. It appears that Trump did not take the likely consequences of the decision particularly seriously. > > - > > [Why Neither Bush nor Obama Killed Iranian Gen. Qassem Soleimani](https://www.businessinsider.com/why-neither-bush-or-obama-killed-iranian-general-qassem-soleimani-2020-1) Was direct open warfare with Iran an inevitability? ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/45 "2020-01-06T02:38:26Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Was direct open warfare with Iran an inevitability? The US has been openly waging war on Iran for a long time, at least since deposing Mosaddegh and installing Reza Pahlavi, more openly since that shah’s ouster. As with all our undeclared wars, it’s unconstitutional; but as Dubya said, the US constitution is only a scrap of paper. I can’t argue that Gen Soleimani was NOT a legitimate military target. I will argue that this is a diversion from Tramp’s domestic woes. Is more-obvious open warfare inevitable? Probably. Neither side is inclined to back down. The Iranian leadership and this POTUS both face existential crises. It will not end well. ---
**Author:** ![FoieGrasIsEvil](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foiegrasisevil/32/16638_2.png) [@FoieGrasIsEvil](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/FoieGrasIsEvil)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 2:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/46 "2020-01-06T02:49:15Z")
> [@RioRico](#): > > The US has been openly waging war on Iran for a long time, at least since deposing Mosaddegh and installing Reza Pahlavi, more openly since that shah’s ouster. As with all our undeclared wars, it’s unconstitutional; but as Dubya said, the US constitution is only a scrap of paper. I can’t argue that Gen Soleimani was NOT a legitimate military target. I will argue that this is a diversion from Tramp’s domestic woes. > > Is more-obvious open warfare inevitable? Probably. Neither side is inclined to back down. The Iranian leadership and this POTUS both face existential crises. It will not end well. I (hopefully obviously) meant direct as in, two militaries squaring off. All this CIA stuff yeah…forever and a day. With EVERY country we conduct intel on. Probably ALL countries at this point. Anyway, I do agree that it won’t end well, especially since our escalation I don’t think has been seen before, and Iran would like to save face here, preserve it’s assets, etc but it doesn’t look like there’s a way out for them. You declare our “open” operations against an EXTREMELY hostile, theocratic nation like they don’t deserve what they get. Like they aren’t trying their level best to de-throne America "The Great Satan"in every way possible. Like they haven’t already committed acts that we could have retaliated for before (limpet mines on cargo ships, drone attack on Saudi oil facility…ringing a bell?). Regardless of our fault, they stormed our embassy in Tehran in 1979 and took hostages. Fuck them. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [January 6, 2020, 3:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/47 "2020-01-06T03:00:37Z")
Another factor that might induce Iranian retaliation is dislike of Trump. It’s one thing to have Obama kill your guy, it’s another thing to have a grinning, tweeting Trump killing your guy and talking trash about you. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 7:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/48 "2020-01-07T07:31:50Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > …I do agree that it won’t end well, especially since our escalation I don’t think has been seen before, and Iran would like to save face here, preserve it’s assets, etc but it doesn’t look like there’s a way out for them. No escape from forcible regime change means their leadership has nothing to lose. If you’re going to die anyway, might as well take out as many of the enemy as possible. No, it doesn’t end well. > [@](#): > > You declare our “open” operations against an EXTREMELY hostile, theocratic nation like they don’t deserve what they get… Don’t expect me to ever call religious regimes “nice guys”. Theocracies suck, some with US support. (Cf. Saudis.) MidEast conflicts likely won’t much bother the rest of the world when cheap fusion power comes online. Till then, we’re stuck with murderous thugs as enemies and frenemies. Hmmm, if Iran announces discovery of the world’s MOST YUGE! oil reserves, will the US swap Arabia for Persia? > [@](#): > > Regardless of our fault, they stormed our embassy in Tehran in 1979 and took hostages. Fuck them. A “balanced” response would have the US storm and take hostages at an Iranian embassy somewhere. Right. :smack: I seem to recall that many Iranians had reason to dislike the US then - like for installing the Shah and training his vicious secret police, [SAVAK](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SAVAK). With the rise of the Ayatollahs, the US created new enemies, provoking more US military spending. Funny about that. All-out war will fuck more than just the Iranian leadership and armed forces. The [Doomsday Clock](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Doomsday_Clock) is now tied for its shortest setting, two minutes to Midnight (kablooey). Tramp’s little game of _escalátio_ won’t improve that. Have you prepared a Last Will And Testament? No, wait, it won’t matter. _“There will be no more misery / When the world is a rotisserie / Nearly ten billion chunks of well-done steak.”_ This attack was a diversion from Tramp’s domestic woes. Will it work? ---
**Author:** ![Chisquirrel](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/6bbea6/32.png) [@Chisquirrel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chisquirrel)\ **Post date:** [January 7, 2020, 9:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/49 "2020-01-07T09:23:40Z")
> [@FoieGrasIsEvil](#): > > Regardless of our fault, they stormed our embassy in Tehran in 1979 and took hostages. Fuck them. We blew up their democracy. Tit, meet tat. As for the rest of it: Mahdi said Soleimani was supposed to carry a message from Iran “in response to the Saudi message that we brought to Iran in order to reach important agreements and situations regarding Iraq and the region.” Iran and Saudi Arabia are working (and have been for months) to ease tensions. We just blew up peace in the Middle East, and you’re defending it, based on unsubstantiated rumors. ---
**Author:** ![Chief\_Pedant](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/a6a055/32.png) [@Chief\_Pedant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chief_Pedant)\ **Post date:** [January 10, 2020, 10:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/50 "2020-01-10T22:55:21Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Since Soleimani was killed in an “active war zone” (Baghdad), I assume Iran may invoke the same logic and target the US embassy in Baghdad. Iran could launch missiles (via its proxies) from within Iraq and possibly Syria, too, thus not justifying a retaliatory US strike directly on Iran territory. Or would it? > > Would this be the excuse Trump was looking for to flat out destroy the Iranian military and leave Iran impotent for a generation? (I am not advocating anything of the sort, of course. Not only is not a long term solution, but it would guaranty fanatic, insatiable, violent anti-Americanism for generations.) Hunh…seems like everything turned out good, so far. It does not seem to me that Mr. Trump is the brightest candle on the altar, so maybe he just got lucky with plinking a bad guy without consequence. OTOH maybe Mr. Trump and the Ayatollah Khamenei are cut from the same nutty cloth: Blusterers anxious to persuade their public, but at some level bullies who understand they don’t want to actually get beat up. If that’s true, then deliberate or not, taking out Suleimani didn’t risk a missile attack on the US embassy because Iran doesn’t want war any more than we do, and Iran is persuaded that Mr. Trump might be crazy enough to go to war with Iran. The thing we never see in these sorts of exchanges is what happens behind the scenes. “Hey Ali, I realize you gotta do something, but it better not hurt us. And if it does, say goodbye to your …X… installations.” One crazy-ass guy threatening another crazy-ass guy…he might actually have more leverage than a soft-spoken intellectual trying to defuse a situation. Longer term, nothing changes in this region based on assassinating Suleimani. Nothing improves; nothing is worse. Any future actions on either side may or may not recall this event and may or may not cite it as instigation. But for now its over, and Mr. Trump totally got by with it. Prolly pissed off a lot of Democrats to boot, b/c their dire predictions of Iranian Consequences were so badly mistaken. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2020, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/51 "2020-01-11T01:47:53Z")
> [@KarlGauss](#): > > Since Soleimani was killed in an “active war zone” (Baghdad), I assume Iran may invoke the same logic and target the US embassy in Baghdad. Iran could launch missiles (via its proxies) from within Iraq and possibly Syria, too, thus not justifying a retaliatory US strike directly on Iran territory. Or would it? > > Would this be the excuse Trump was looking for to flat out destroy the Iranian military and leave Iran impotent for a generation? (I am not advocating anything of the sort, of course. Not only is not a long term solution, but it would guaranty fanatic, insatiable, violent anti-Americanism for generations.) I think attacking an embassy is a complete act of war, while hitting a ‘general’ who is in charge of irregulars and is known to have been in charge of Iran’s terrorist proxies is…well, less a complete act of war I suppose. If Iran was stupid enough to actually attack the US embassy and kill Americans then Trump would have no choice but to strike back, probably much harsher than he did in his 2 Syria strikes. That would pretty much mean we were at war with Iran. That’s why Iran chose a wiser path, though there was a lot of risk in that as well. They had to calculate what Trump’s response would be (my WAG is they told the US what they were doing and to get troops under cover, so as to mitigate the risk as much as possible) and their own capabilities as well as the demon Murphy, weighed against the fact that the hardliners need to show they are strong and capable and won’t flinch in going head to head with the US if needs be. ---
**Author:** ![RioRico](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/f04885/32.png) [@RioRico](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RioRico)\ **Post date:** [January 11, 2020, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950/52 "2020-01-11T22:20:00Z")
As has been suggested, expect Iranian responses to be strategic and dramatic but not immediate. I fear this POTUS will fairly soon false-flag an attack on the US to justify serious escalation - more dog-wagging to divert focus from his increasing domestic woes. I suspect Ms Pelosi has been handed explosive evidence of DJT’s treasons and that’s why she’s hinting at presenting the Articles of Impeachment next week. We’ll see what blows up before then. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-trumps-response-if-a-missile-attack-is-launched-on-the-us-embassy-in-bagdhad/845950.md?page=2)