# What is your acceptable failure rate for a vaccine? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 2, 2016, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538 "2016-08-02T10:09:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 10:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/1 "2016-08-02T10:09:39Z")
Imagine there’s a pandemic sweeping the world - bubonic plague or flu, say. Scientists have a vaccine, but it can only be given to pre-pubertal children. Unfortunately the vaccine can have irreversible side-effects, leaving the child a drooling moron in constant pain for the rest of their life. What is an acceptable failure rate for you? ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 10:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/2 "2016-08-02T10:13:40Z")
What’s the death rate of the pandemic? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 10:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/3 "2016-08-02T10:24:07Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > What’s the death rate of the pandemic? If you catch it, upwards of 50%. There is no data on how likely you are to catch it, but so far hundreds of millions have died world-wide and there are reports of entire regions devastated. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 11:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/4 "2016-08-02T11:16:34Z")
I put 1 in 100 because of herd immunity. ETA: Ignore this. I thought the failure rate meant the vaccine did not take effect. ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 11:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/5 "2016-08-02T11:25:33Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > If you catch it, upwards of 50%. There is no data on how likely you are to catch it, but so far hundreds of millions have died world-wide and there are reports of entire regions devastated. I’ll take a 1/100 chance of my child being a drooling moron over a 1/2 chance of them dying. ---
**Author:** ![Princhester](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/3e96dc/32.png) [@Princhester](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Princhester)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 11:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/6 "2016-08-02T11:52:26Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > If you catch it, upwards of 50%. There is no data on how likely you are to catch it, but so far hundreds of millions have died world-wide and there are reports of entire regions devastated. There just isn’t sufficient information on which to do other than choose an answer at random. Epidemiologists have sophisticated mathematical models which predict the spread of a given disease and the effects of a vaccination of a particular effectiveness. Those models would be able to predict the break even point at which you would be doing more harm than good by risking the vaccine. ---
**Author:** ![jacobsta811](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jacobsta811/32/2893_2.png) [@jacobsta811](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jacobsta811)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/7 "2016-08-02T11:55:06Z")
In your scenario where the disease itself has already killed something like 1 in 20 of the world population, something like 1 in 10 might be acceptable if the disease is not at all contained. ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 12:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/8 "2016-08-02T12:53:10Z")
> [@Princhester](#): > > There just isn’t sufficient information on which to do other than choose an answer at random. Epidemiologists have sophisticated mathematical models which predict the spread of a given disease and the effects of a vaccination of a particular effectiveness. Those models would be able to predict the break even point at which you would be doing more harm than good by risking the vaccine. This. The poll is asking for an answer to half a question. ---
**Author:** ![Jackmannii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jackmannii/32/311_2.png) [@Jackmannii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jackmannii)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/9 "2016-08-02T12:54:55Z")
Boy, Zika really causes some people to freak out. :eek: The OP’s premise being fantastical (worldwide plague killing over 50% of its victims, unexplained devastating side effects in some small fraction of vaccine recipients, vaccine for unknown reason only to be given to prepubertal children) I can’t respond meaningfully to such a poll. If such a pandemic did occur and an experimental vaccine was rushed into production, I’d expect testing to occur first in adult volunteers, with any idiosyncratic severe side effects emerging before the vaccine was ever given to children. If Captain Trips was coming to my neighborhood, I might well accept the 1 in 100 odds for myself if there was a suicide pill handy. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 4:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/10 "2016-08-02T16:18:31Z")
> [@naita](#): > > This. The poll is asking for an answer to half a question. And it’s doing so quite deliberately. ---
**Author:** ![XT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/xt/32/456_2.png) [@XT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/XT)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 4:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/11 "2016-08-02T16:39:56Z")
As some context, 1 in 100 would mean 740,000 children (defined as under the age of 18) in the US would be relegated to ‘a drooling moron in constant pain for the rest of their life’…and this after whatever losses happen from the plague itself. I’m unsure that would be acceptable to anyone unless the situation was truly desperate in the extreme. ---
**Author:** ![dracoi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/90db22/32.png) [@dracoi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dracoi)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 4:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/12 "2016-08-02T16:42:40Z")
If we really have only the information given by the OP, then it seems like anything less than 50% failure rate should be acceptable. However, we have to have more information than that. By the time whole regions die, it would be impossible to hide how the disease is transmitted. There would simply be too much data to not know. Once you know a method of transmission, you have all kinds of options to address the spread of the disease. ---
**Author:** ![Zyanthia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/z/d6d6ee/32.png) [@Zyanthia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Zyanthia)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/13 "2016-08-02T17:07:05Z")
I chose the 1 in 100. “For the rest of their life” doesn’t have to be that long and that 1 in 100 could be added to the list of those killed by the disease. So now, with proper spin, I have a 100% successful vaccine. Am I ready for a government job now? ---
**Author:** ![naita](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/naita/32/5862_2.png) [@naita](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/naita)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/14 "2016-08-02T17:58:40Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And it’s doing so quite deliberately. How droll. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/15 "2016-08-02T18:03:42Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And it’s doing so quite deliberately. Then here’s my quite deliberate answer. I’d give my child the vaccine if the odds of them dying of the disease are higher than the odds of them developing the side-effect. Come back when you’ve got some numbers. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/16 "2016-08-02T18:48:13Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > And it’s doing so quite deliberately. I am suspicious of your motives here. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/17 "2016-08-02T18:58:12Z")
> [@DrDeth](#): > > I am suspicious of your motives here. :dubious: It’s very simple: I have no specialist knowledge here. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/18 "2016-08-02T19:09:40Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > It’s very simple: I have no specialist knowledge here. This looks odd, given the antivax hysteria. :dubious: ---
**Author:** ![Ravenman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ravenman/32/2929_2.png) [@Ravenman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ravenman)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/19 "2016-08-02T19:18:45Z")
I, too, would like to offer an answer, but I don’t fully understand the scenario. Without understanding how easy it is to catch this disease, I can’t judge the risk at all. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [August 2, 2016, 7:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538/20 "2016-08-02T19:54:58Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > It’s very simple: I have no specialist knowledge here. What are your thoughts on childhood vaccines and the anti-vax movement? [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-is-your-acceptable-failure-rate-for-a-vaccine/761538.md?page=2)