# What lessons can be drawn from the 2012 election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 8, 2012, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306 "2012-11-08T00:31:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![HoboStew](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/f17d59/32.png) [@HoboStew](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HoboStew)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/41 "2012-11-08T22:50:50Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I came looking for a thread about lessons to be drawn from the 2012 election - am I in the right room? > > Here’s one: you are \*always \*on mic and on camera. That ‘47%’ remark was much more damaging than it really should have been. I don’t think he believes that the 47% who don’t pay income tax are identical to the population he can’t convince, but he sure phrased it like that, because he thought he was off the record. I don’t think it was very damaging at all - the main group of people who seemed to care were already voting for Obama. Romney got 48% of the popular vote, despite running one of the worst presidential campaigns I have ever seen. He waffled on every single issue, made gaffe after gaffe, and came across as totally unlikable compared to Obama (note - I voted for neither of them). I don’t think there is a lesson to be learned here, I don’t think the Republicans fared nearly as badly as Democrats seem to want to believe. Despite a concerted campaign of obstructionism and putting their own agenda above the common good these last 4 years, they are still one more election away from controlling the whole system. And if the economy doesn’t turn around in the next 4 years, I would bet money on a 2016 Republican sweep. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/42 "2012-11-08T23:07:40Z")
> [@Lantern](#): > > … Romney was easily the most sensible choice … Let me see, Bachmann, santorum, Paul, Newt, Huntsman, Goodhair, hmm. Pretty sad lot. Well, except maybe for Huntsman. I mean seriously, Huntsman. Yes, another Mo, but a quite level-headed guy who may well have given Obama a real challenge by not spewing divisive idiocy. He really would have been the sensible choice, which clearly shows the Rs’ lack of sense. ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 11:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/43 "2012-11-08T23:18:14Z")
> [@For You](#): > > Let me see, Bachmann, santorum, Paul, Newt, Huntsman, Goodhair, hmm. Pretty sad lot. Well, except maybe for Huntsman. > > I mean seriously, Huntsman. Yes, another Mo, but a quite level-headed guy who may well have given Obama a real challenge by not spewing divisive idiocy. He really would have been the sensible choice, which clearly shows the Rs’ lack of sense. Huntsman lost all sense of credibility and self worth when he showered himself with confetti and balloons after getting 3rd place in New Hampshire shouting, “We did it!!!” ---
**Author:** ![Dumbguy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/2bfe46/32.png) [@Dumbguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dumbguy)\ **Post date:** [November 8, 2012, 11:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/44 "2012-11-08T23:54:37Z")
> [@WillFarnaby](#): > > So those are necessary conditions of slavery? Yes, dude. Words have meaning. Slavery is slavery, and taxes are taxes, no matter how many times the nihilist PR machine that passes for conservatism these days tells you otherwise. Also, polls are pretty accurate even when they tell you things you don’t want to hear, and masturbating to a VHS tape of Reagan’s inauguration and chanting “There’s no place like home” won’t make it morning in America again. ---
**Author:** ![TimeWinder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bcef8e/32.png) [@TimeWinder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TimeWinder)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/45 "2012-11-09T00:18:58Z")
That a surprisingly large percentage of Americans can use the word “Socialism” in a sentence, while still being utterly unaware of what the word actually _means_. ---
**Author:** ![Implicit](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/6a8cbe/32.png) [@Implicit](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Implicit)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/46 "2012-11-09T00:23:57Z")
> [@HoboStew](#): > > And if the economy doesn’t turn around in the next 4 years, I would bet money on a 2016 Republican sweep. The economy sucked for the past 4 years and the Republicans did not sweep this year. This election should have been a cakewalk for them. My take from this is that they completely failed to get their economic message across, or perhaps they never had a message. ---
**Author:** ![5\_time\_champ](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/5/278dde/32.png) [@5\_time\_champ](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/5_time_champ)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/47 "2012-11-09T00:30:20Z")
[ol] [li]Nate Silver rocks, and so does the Princeton Election Consortium[/li][/ol] ---
**Author:** ![The\_Dord](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3be4f8/32.png) [@The\_Dord](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Dord)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/48 "2012-11-09T00:31:07Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I came looking for a thread about lessons to be drawn from the 2012 election - am I in the right room? > > Here’s one: you are \*always \*on mic and on camera. That ‘47%’ remark was much more damaging than it really should have been. I don’t think he believes that the 47% who don’t pay income tax are identical to the population he can’t convince, but he sure phrased it like that, because he thought he was off the record. In conclusion: Nothing is off the record. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/49 "2012-11-09T00:32:37Z")
> [@Implicit](#): > > The economy sucked for the past 4 years and the Republicans did not sweep this year. This election should have been a cakewalk for them. My take from this is that they completely failed to get their economic message across, or perhaps they never had a message. people don’t vote on a snapshot of the economy, they vote on the trajectory of the economy. And the economy is improving, maybe not as quickly as we would all like, but it is going in the right direction. If that reverses course during the 2016 election then I do expect the GOP will do well. But if in fact, it continues and we have a relatively strong economy in 2016 the only thing that may save the Republicans is their Gerrymandered House districts. ---
**Author:** ![waterj2](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/858c86/32.png) [@waterj2](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/waterj2)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/50 "2012-11-09T00:54:11Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > people don’t vote on a snapshot of the economy, they vote on the trajectory of the economy. And the economy is improving, maybe not as quickly as we would all like, but it is going in the right direction. If that reverses course during the 2016 election then I do expect the GOP will do well. But if in fact, it continues and we have a relatively strong economy in 2016 the only thing that may save the Republicans is their Gerrymandered House districts. That reminds me of another good lesson. The Democrats need to start working on controlling as many state legislatures as possible after the 2020 elections. I think I heard that Pennsylvania had more people voting for a Democratic congressperson than a Republican one, but it’s delegation is split 15-3 Republican. Too lazy to look up the real numbers. ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 12:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/51 "2012-11-09T00:54:54Z")
I think there are some interesting takeaways. On a night where Obama’s success is being downplayed a lot in some Republican circles, he won more electoral votes than any Republican since GHWB. The electoral college seems to have a pronounced Democratic lean right now. That’s pretty important, and the reasons for the lean aren’t going to go away by 2016 or 2020. That doesn’t mean some sort of guaranteed Democratic win, but it doesn’t look particularly good for Team Red. Demographics matter. Polls ain’t too shabby, either. ---
**Author:** ![tonyfop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@tonyfop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tonyfop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/52 "2012-11-09T01:13:15Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > people don’t vote on a snapshot of the economy, they vote on the trajectory of the economy. And the economy is improving, maybe not as quickly as we would all like, but it is going in the right direction. If that reverses course during the 2016 election then I do expect the GOP will do well. But if in fact, it continues and we have a relatively strong economy in 2016 the only thing that may save the Republicans is their Gerrymandered House districts. The republicans aren’t the only ones good at gerrymandering. Check out this map of Maryland: [http://www.mapresources.com/maryland-digital-vector-map-us-congressional-districts-md-usa-895626.html](http://www.mapresources.com/maryland-digital-vector-map-us-congressional-districts-md-usa-895626.html) Click on the map to blow it up. I watched Fox News on election night (I know, saying that is opening myself up to ridicule), and I heard some very interesting things. First off, Romney did not do as bad as most of you think. Looking at the raw vote totals, Obama is down almost 2 million votes from 2008, while Ropmney beat McCain by 6 million votes. One of the major points that Fox kept watching was the demographics of the electorate. What they were saying was that Romney’s model was an electorate that was 74-75% white(same as 2008), while Obama’s model was an electorate that was 72% white. They admitted in the end, after they called the election, that Obama’s model was correct, and that the demographic shift towards a more diverse electorate has continued. So Obama lost votes in a more friendly electorate, while Romney picked up votes in a less friendly electorate. This tells me that the greater enthusiasm among Republicans was actually there, and there was a down-tick in enthusiasm among Democrats, but not enough to swing the election. The conclusion that Fox came to, which to every one here will ring as true, but most will be surprised to hear it coming from Fox, was that Republicans need to stop ignoring minorities. Whether this will translate to actual policy we must wait and see… ---
**Author:** ![drewtwo99](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/d07c76/32.png) [@drewtwo99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewtwo99)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/53 "2012-11-09T01:17:36Z")
> [@tonyfop](#): > > Looking at the raw vote totals, Obama is down almost 2 million votes from 2008, while Ropmney beat McCain by 6 million votes. 1. McCain in 2008: 59,934,814 2. Romney in 2012: 58,058,148 3. ??? [Fox News Reality Filter] 4. Romney beat McCain by 6 million votes!!! Hint: Romney got LESS votes than McCain did. Obama 2012 also got less votes than Obama 2008. ---
**Author:** ![tonyfop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@tonyfop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tonyfop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/54 "2012-11-09T01:19:16Z")
Oops, looked at the wrong numbers. Obama was down 8 million, while Romney was down around 2 million, with Florida still needing to be added to the total. So R enthusiasm was about the same, while D enthusiasm was way down… Actually, I don’t know if the number I am looking at includes Florida or not. I see 61 million to 58 million. Anyone know if that includes Florida? ---
**Author:** ![wonky](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wonky/32/393_2.png) [@wonky](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/wonky)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/55 "2012-11-09T01:20:59Z")
> [@tonyfop](#): > > I watched Fox News on election night (I know, saying that is opening myself up to ridicule), and I heard some very interesting things. First off, Romney did not do as bad as most of you think. Looking at the raw vote totals, Obama is down almost 2 million votes from 2008, while Ropmney beat McCain by 6 million votes. I don’t know where you’re getting those numbers. Romney is about 2 million behind the McCain numbers from 2008 and Obama is close to 8 million below 2008, though there are still votes being counted. ---
**Author:** ![MOIDALIZE](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/e274bd/32.png) [@MOIDALIZE](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MOIDALIZE)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/56 "2012-11-09T01:25:44Z")
> [@Ann\_Hedonia](#): > > **Don’t believe your own hype.** Word. The sight of Karl Rove melting down on Fox News and insisting that it was a mistake for the network to call Ohio for Obama was amazing because you expect him, of all people, to be much more reality based. > [@Lantern](#): > > 1. The conservative base is a major drag on the election prospects of Republican Senators in particular. They aren’t yet powerful enough to determine the Presidential candidate ; Romney was easily the most sensible choice and he won fairly comfortably in the end despite the base. And in the House the crazies can often win the general election comfortably anyway. But Senate races are right in the sweet spot, the primaries are small enough that the base can influence results but the general election electorate is broad enough that the crazies find it difficult to win. It has happened twice in a row and it will be interesting to watch how the Republican establishment reacts. I agree. The Republicans had an advantage in the House races because they were mainly in control during the last redistricting, but that doesn’t help them in the Senate races, especially when they nominate complete yahoos. > [@Ogre](#): > > That was a fascinating and really well-written article (Perlstein’s piece), but I must regretfully point out that this approach to fund raising is NOT exclusive to the right. Oh, definitely. I only mentioned it as a possible contributing factor for why the Right didn’t get much bang for its buck with all the money they were able to raise. > [@DMark](#): > > Old white dude here, and I have lots of old white dude friends. > > We didn’t vote for Romney. We happily voted for Obama! > > Stop thinking every old fart who is white is immediately jumping into crazy town with the rest of you idiots. But are you or your friends plutocrats? That’s who I was talking about. > [@CJJ](#): > > Liberals believe the media should reflect reality, whereas conservatives believe it can shape it. Yes, and it’s frustrating because the conservative view of how the media should work is based on a false premise: that the mainstream media has a liberal bias. And the mainstream media learned that, try as it might to maintain an appearance of neutrality by adopting [the View from Nowhere](http://pressthink.org/2010/11/the-view-from-nowhere-questions-and-answers/) in order to appease conservatives, their efforts were futile in the face of such a fundamentally different view of the media. All the MSM managed to do was damage its own credibility. > [@elucidator](#): > > Its way too early to be sure. But there is evidence, there are hints: money doesn’t work any more. I wouldn’t go that far. A campaign that has lavish funding available to it is at an advantage, so long as the money is deployed effectively. But that doesn’t mean I think the Republicans are going to be able to easily fix their problems before the next election. Campaigns are run by partisans, and the conservative information bubble ensures that their partisans will be anti-science and disdainful of math and statistics. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > You have to have some positive message. You have to be able to tell people why they should vote for you and not just why they should vote against the other guy. It’s not enough for the Right to resolve to engage women and Latinos. They have to put forth actual, credible policies. ---
**Author:** ![tonyfop](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/85f322/32.png) [@tonyfop](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tonyfop)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/57 "2012-11-09T01:27:46Z")
> [@jsgoddess](#): > > I don’t know where you’re getting those numbers. Romney is about 2 million behind the McCain numbers from 2008 and Obama is close to 8 million below 2008, though there are still votes being counted. Yeah, i shoild put my glasses on when reading small numbers. I saw a win of 62 million to 52 million, when those pesky 2’s were actually 9’s. ---
**Author:** ![eschereal](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eschereal/32/18939_2.png) [@eschereal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/eschereal)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/58 "2012-11-09T02:23:34Z")
> [@tonyfop](#): > > Oops, looked at the wrong numbers. Obama was down 8 million, while Romney was down around 2 million, with Florida still needing to be added to the total. So R enthusiasm was about the same, while D enthusiasm was way down… > > Actually, I don’t know if the number I am looking at includes Florida or not. I see 61 million to 58 million. Anyone know if that includes Florida? I believe they add the votes to the overall total as they become available. Why would they wait for Florida to finish counting everything before adding in all their votes? Makes no sense. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/59 "2012-11-09T02:42:56Z")
> [@tonyfop](#): > > The conclusion that Fox came to, which to every one here will ring as true, but most will be surprised to hear it coming from Fox, was that Republicans need to stop ignoring minorities. Whether this will translate to actual policy we must wait and see… I watched some Fox on election night too (it’s fun). Are you talking about when O’Reilly said traditional America is gone, that the white establishment doesn’t rule anymore? Because I think you’re being generous calling that a realization that they need to embrace minorities. The next thing out of his mouth was that the electorate is ruled by people who are takers. Of course, you might be talking about something much different. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [November 9, 2012, 2:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306/60 "2012-11-09T02:55:07Z")
Sorry to double-post - I’m outside the edit window. Just read [a funny article on the Washington Post](http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/republican-party-begins-election-review-to-find-out-what-went-wrong/2012/11/08/74acf0fa-29d6-11e2-96b6-8e6a7524553f_story.html) about the GOP trying to figure out what went wrong. I love this quote: > [@Washington Post](#): > > Party officials said the review is aimed at studying their tactics and message, not at changing the philosophical underpinnings of the party. Creationism in schools? Global warming denial? Tax cuts will solve the debt problem? Rich people need less tax to get the economy running? The military should get more stuff than the Pentagon asks for? Rape is a many splendored thing? Build a border fence? All that’s fine. Let’s talk about tactics. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-lessons-can-be-drawn-from-the-2012-election/640306.md?page=4)