# What might the eviction crisis actually look like? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [May 27, 2020, 3:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544 "2020-05-27T15:37:07Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/22 "2020-05-28T16:25:41Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > But it depends, doesn’t it, on how long this situation lasts? Getting less rent (whether it’s half, or three quarters, or 90 percent, or whatever) for a few months is probably better than evicting the tenant and having the place sit empty. Yes, obviously. But short-term doesn’t imply an eviction crisis. That only occurs if fully-paying renters don’t pay when the country returns to “normal.” A [Bloomberg Businessweek article](https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-12/if-landlords-get-wiped-out-wall-street-wins-not-renters) says that “About half of the 43 million rental units in the country are owned by small businesses such as Shields’s one-woman enterprise.” They have no reserves. “Her profit last year came to only $24,000, and now she’s behind on $1.2 million in mortgages.” No amount of half-pay can overcome this. ---
**Author:** ![mhendo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mhendo/32/3159_2.png) [@mhendo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/mhendo)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/23 "2020-05-28T16:43:47Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Yes, obviously. But short-term doesn’t imply an eviction crisis. It might. How do you define short term? There are already evictions going ahead in the states that did not place a moratorium on them, and in the states that did place a short-term ban, most of those will expire at the end of June or July, and there are landlords in all of those places who have the paperwork ready. I agree with the main point of your linked article: the banks and large investors are likely to be the medium- to long-term winners in any eviction and/or mortgage crisis. I’m not completely sure of what the most reasonable solution to all this might be, or if there even is a solution. It certainly does seem that the banks and large investors have an advantage, especially the banks. which can foreclose on property owners while also recognizing that, if the banks themselves can’t meet their obligations, they’ll likely get a bail-out from the government. That sort of inequity needs to be considered when any government intervention is proposed. In all of the corporate bailouts over the past two decades (post-9/11; the Great Recession; the coronavirus epidemic), there have been, in my opinion, massively insufficient conditions placed on how corporations can use the bailout money, and how they should treat their customers and employees if they want government help. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 5:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/24 "2020-05-28T17:32:49Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > The banks will swoop in and re-possess the properties and will be quite happy snap up the property cheaply. The bank is likely to be cushioned by the government from failing so why not…get all the juicy property on their books for pennies on the dollar. The last thing banks want on their books is a depreciating asset that is not only outside their physical control, but bleeding money via property taxes. They’re already getting this for free when all the mortgage holders default on their loans and send the keys back in the mail. So there’s no way you’re going to find a bank going bargain-hunting in the middle of a housing crash. Banks want to collect money from property owners, they don’t want to be property owners. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/25 "2020-05-28T17:36:54Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > The last thing banks want on their books is a depreciating asset that is not only outside their physical control, but bleeding money via property taxes. Property is where the money is at. It is a tangible asset. Sure it can go down but mostly it goes up. Besides, the banks will re-possess and auction it off and make some money. The risk goes to others…others who are friendly with banks and would love to get their hands on these assets and are more than happy to hold it for years because, in the end, it pays off. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/26 "2020-05-28T18:11:59Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Property is where the money is at. It is a tangible asset. > > Sure it can go down but mostly it goes up. > > Besides, the banks will re-possess and auction it off and make some money. The risk goes to others…others who are friendly with banks and would love to get their hands on these assets and are more than happy to hold it for years because, in the end, it pays off. Foreclosed buildings almost never go up in value. Selling a property at auction brings pennies on the dollar. And that is usually a long, slow process as shown after the 2008 housing crisis. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 6:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/27 "2020-05-28T18:44:41Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Foreclosed buildings almost never go up in value. Selling a property at auction brings pennies on the dollar. And that is usually a long, slow process as shown after the 2008 housing crisis. Pennies on the dollar is more money than the bank would get otherwise. If the bank thought a different route would make more money then they would do that instead. Those who buy the properties…I honestly do not know how they hang on for so long but they do. As an example, the [Old Post Office in Chicago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Chicago_Main_Post_Office) is a HUGE building that sat empty for over 20 years. Only now is it being renovated and occupied. It’s very valuable property though. So, why and how it can sit in limbo for so long, presumably costing someone a fortune in taxes and maintenance, is beyond me. But, clearly, they do it. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/28 "2020-05-28T19:00:54Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Pennies on the dollar is more money than the bank would get otherwise. If the bank thought a different route would make more money then they would do that instead. > > Those who buy the properties…I honestly do not know how they hang on for so long but they do. > > As an example, the [Old Post Office in Chicago](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Old_Chicago_Main_Post_Office) is a HUGE building that sat empty for over 20 years. Only now is it being renovated and occupied. > > It’s very valuable property though. So, why and how it can sit in limbo for so long, presumably costing someone a fortune in taxes and maintenance, is beyond me. But, clearly, they do it. Foreclosures on residential houses outnumber old historical monuments by about a zillion to one. The two are not comparable. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/29 "2020-05-28T19:03:47Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > Property is where the money is at. It is a tangible asset. > > Sure it can go down but mostly it goes up. > > Besides, the banks will re-possess and auction it off and make some money. The risk goes to others…others who are friendly with banks and would love to get their hands on these assets and are more than happy to hold it for years because, in the end, it pays off. I’m sorry, all of this is made-up fantasy. Banks do NOT want to be in the landlording business, nor in the flipping business, nor in the business of holding any asset that can’t be put in a safe or transferred over a wire. It’s not a core competency, and the last thing they want is to get a set of keys in the mail from a borrower in default. Where I live, practically every property that was abandoned in the 2008 recession sat that way for 2-3 years. In that time they sat unmaintained, they were damaged by wind, rain, stripped of copper and metals. They were owned by banks that couldn’t unload them and ultimately were sold for less than construction costs. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/30 "2020-05-28T19:15:54Z")
> [@mhendo](#): > > There’s an article in today’s _New York Times_ titled, [An ‘Avalanche of Evictions’ Could Be Bearing Down on America’s Renters](https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/27/us/coronavirus-evictions-renters.html). > > The main argument of the piece is that, as stimulus checks and boosted unemployment payments dry up, more and more renters won’t be able to afford to pay their rent, especially as it will likely take the economy a long time to rebound even if businesses start to reopen. High unemployment levels are likely to be with us for a while, and many of those who have suffered most heavily from the economic crisis are renters on low incomes without much in the way of financial resources. > … > But it seems to me that what many of these stories fail to consider is the question of how these mass evictions might work, in terms of the overall rental market. That is, you evict a non-paying tenant, and what next? > > Evictions happen all the time. The same _Times_ story notes that, in 2016, when the economy was going well and the unemployment rate was under 5 percent, there were still about 3.7 million eviction cases filed in the US. But one of the key rationales for evicting a non-paying tenant is that you want to replace that tenant with one who can and will pay the rent on time. When the economy is booming and unemployment is at historic lows, it makes rational economic sense to evict a tenant who can’t pay. But what happens when everyone’s doing it? … > > Presumably things will play out differently in different markets. In a very tight market like San Francisco, the crisis might simply result in a medium-term decline in rental prices, as the market adjusts downwards from its absurdly high levels. But in plenty of cities and towns and regions, where the rental market was not especially tight to begin with, if everyone who can’t pay gets evicted, then who’s going to be occupying all those rental properties? > > If I were a landlord right now, especially in an area without an incredibly tight rental market, I’d probably be looking to work with my existing tenants rather than evict them in the middle of the economic maelstrom and hope I could find someone else who wasn’t also in dire financial straits. > … As the economy opens up, those people will be going back to work. Yes, I was on a rent board, and the smart landlords had figured out that losing a good tenant was a bad crap shoot. If the tenant keeps the place clean, doesnt complain all the time, and HAD BEEN good with the rent- raising their rent a bunch due to new market conditions is a bad idea. Because- every once in a awhile you get a really bad tenant, and they usually cost about $10000- lost rent, damages, and legal fees. They can cost more than that, of course. I would talk to my tenants, and see why they arent paying rent. I mean, they should be getting UC, and in many areas the UC\* will net about the same- maybe even more. Are they just not paying rent because they can get away with it? Or are they truly in dire straights? If the latter, I would ask that they pay half or whatever, and then work out a payment schedule afterwards, maybe even excuse part of it. I dont know _anyone_ who currently is hurting that badly economically. Yes, a couple are on UC\*, but their net is either a little less or even more. Several work from home. Several are “essential”. The only guy I know who is hurting is a PT sub teacher- and he lives at home with his parents anyway. So, he just has no disposable income. Annoying, certainly. - I am in California, which has a solid UC system. Perhaps in Republican states with crappy UC, like Florida, there are more serious issues. ---
**Author:** ![DrDeth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b487fb/32.png) [@DrDeth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DrDeth)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 7:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/31 "2020-05-28T19:20:02Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > According to an article I just read (may even have been in the Times) landlords average a return of nine cents on the dollar. Getting half the normal rent is the same as bankruptcy. That is likely including depreciation. But yes, not a lot of positive cash flow in renting. The landlords that still have to make monthly payments cant afford a huge decrease. OTOH, eviction is even more expensive. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 8:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/32 "2020-05-28T20:06:05Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > Foreclosures on residential houses outnumber old historical monuments by about a zillion to one. The two are not comparable. It is not a monument. It is an office building. A great big one. I have little doubt you can find areas in any big city with empty, run-down buildings. This one just happens to be more conspicuous than most. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 8:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/33 "2020-05-28T20:08:31Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > I’m sorry, all of this is made-up fantasy. Banks do NOT want to be in the landlording business, nor in the flipping business, nor in the business of holding any asset that can’t be put in a safe or transferred over a wire. It’s not a core competency, and the last thing they want is to get a set of keys in the mail from a borrower in default. You’re right. They will auction them off ASAP. If they thought there was a way they could make more money then they would do that instead. ---
**Author:** ![Oakminster](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/o/77aa72/32.png) [@Oakminster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Oakminster)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 8:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/34 "2020-05-28T20:15:10Z")
One effect is that with high unemployment, more people are likely to qualify for subsidized housing programs. Such programs typically have long waiting lists, but a sudden glut of rental properties on the market might change that. Being a Section 8 landlord is often a royal pain in the ass, but the landlord knows that at least the government’s part of the rent will get paid. Might see more landlords trying to qualify for that sort of thing… ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 8:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/35 "2020-05-28T20:20:16Z")
> [@Oakminster](#): > > Being a Section 8 landlord is often a royal pain in the ass, but the landlord knows that at least the government’s part of the rent will get paid. According to a couple of landlords I’ve known and even worked for no, that is not as guaranteed as you might think it is. At least not in the greater Chicago area. No guarantee it will be on time even if it is paid, but woe to you if your property taxes aren’t in on time! ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 10:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/36 "2020-05-28T22:12:32Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > It is not a monument. It is an office building. A great big one. > > I have little doubt you can find areas in any big city with empty, run-down buildings. This one just happens to be more conspicuous than most. So what? Large buildings are eminently repurposable. Individual homes and apartment buildings are not. That’s what we’re talking about here. ---
**Author:** ![Broomstick](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/broomstick/32/246_2.png) [@Broomstick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Broomstick)\ **Post date:** [May 28, 2020, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/37 "2020-05-28T22:25:39Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > It is not a monument. It is an office building. A great big one. Yes. A huge one. One large enough that a major, multi-lane road runs _through_ the ground floor instead of going around it. A building distinctive enough that it is an actual landmark. It’s a little different than an anonymous cube of a building occupying only a fraction of a city block. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 12:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/38 "2020-05-29T00:08:37Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > So what? Large buildings are eminently repurposable. Individual homes and apartment buildings are not. That’s what we’re talking about here. The point is it is a property with no tenants for 20 years or more. A landlord is not getting income on the building. Yet, somehow, they let it sit for literally decades like that. ---
**Author:** ![Exapno\_Mapcase](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/exapno_mapcase/32/1051_2.png) [@Exapno\_Mapcase](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Exapno_Mapcase)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/39 "2020-05-29T00:55:59Z")
> [@Whack-a-Mole](#): > > The point is it is a property with no tenants for 20 years or more. > > A landlord is not getting income on the building. > > Yet, somehow, they let it sit for literally decades like that. So what you’re saying is that if you can find one case in which an owner - presumably one with so many other properties that they could afford to let one slide - didn’t go bankrupt from allowing one building not to be rented, the entire housing crisis that millions of small landlords with no other properties to balance a loss against will be facing doesn’t exist. Are we supposed to take this argument seriously? Spoiler alert, we’re not. It’s insane reductionism. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 1:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/40 "2020-05-29T01:06:22Z")
> [@filmore](#): > > Another alternative is that the landlord sells the place. Quite often, renting brings a lot of headaches and the landlord may not be making a lot of money. Rather than dealing with a future of flaky tenants because of the rocky employment landscape, landlords may elect to put the house on the market to get out whatever equity they can. It’s hard enough to find good tenants with good credit when the economy is good. Now that unemployment is going way up, finding those good tenants will be much harder. Yeah, not easy for landlords to sell rental properties when tenants are abandoning rental homes like war refugees fleeing an advancing army. ---
**Author:** ![Whack-a-Mole](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/whack-a-mole/32/141_2.png) [@Whack-a-Mole](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Whack-a-Mole)\ **Post date:** [May 29, 2020, 1:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544/41 "2020-05-29T01:10:27Z")
> [@Exapno\_Mapcase](#): > > So what you’re saying is that if you can find one case in which an owner - presumably one with so many other properties that they could afford to let one slide - didn’t go bankrupt from allowing one building not to be rented, the entire housing crisis that millions of small landlords with no other properties to balance a loss against will be facing doesn’t exist. > > Are we supposed to take this argument seriously? Spoiler alert, we’re not. It’s insane reductionism. Say it with me… Exxxaaaaaammmmplllle Examples are things we use in real life to illustrate a point. If you need more: - [How Detroit Became the World Capital of Staring at Abandoned Old Buildings](https://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/11/magazine/how-detroit-became-the-world-capital-of-staring-at-abandoned-old-buildings.html?pagewanted=all) From another source (which used the above as a citation): > [@](#): > > With at least 70,000 abandoned buildings, 31,000 empty houses, and 90,000 vacant lots, Detroit has become notorious for its urban blight. > > SOURCE: [History of Detroit - Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decline_of_Detroit) [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-might-the-eviction-crisis-actually-look-like/854544.md?page=3)