# What odds did we beat by NOT having a nuclear war by now? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [September 23, 2009, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298 "2009-09-23T21:42:59Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2009, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/1 "2009-09-23T21:42:59Z")
[“Doc” Emmett Brown]“Radiation suit? Of course, because of all the fallout from the atomic wars!”[/Doc] So how fortunate are we? Did any think tank studies back in the 50s or 60s quantify how likely a future nuclear war was? Was it considered more or less _inevitable_ that the US and USSR would come to blows? ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 23, 2009, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/2 "2009-09-23T22:04:09Z")
I don’t know if there are stats onhand, but the Stanislav Petrov incident is interesting to read about. > **[Stanislav Petrov](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stanislav_Petrov)** > > Stanislav Yevgrafovich Petrov (Russian: Станисла́в Евгра́фович Петро́в; 7 September 1939 – 19 May 2017) was a lieutenant colonel of the Soviet Air Defence Forces who played a key role in the 1983 Soviet nuclear false alarm incident. On 26 September 1983, three weeks after the Soviet military had shot down Korean Air Lines Flight 007, Petrov was the duty officer at the command center for the Oko nuclear early-warning system when the system reported that a missile had been launched from the Unit... ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 12:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/3 "2009-09-24T00:49:38Z")
Here’s a treatise that says as long[as nuclear weapons exist, the chance of them being used is 100%, and the best we can do is lengthen the odds](http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/Breakthrough/book/chapters/hellman.html). It also says that John F. Kennedy viewed the chances of nuclear war over the Cuban Missile Crisis as being “somewhere between one out of three and even.” The only think tank-like cites I can find tend to look forward and say things like “if we follow X doctrine, the chance of nuclear war in the next 25 years will range from 5% to 20%, but if we follow Y doctrine, the chances will range from 15% to 40%.” ---
**Author:** ![dropzone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dropzone/32/7515_2.png) [@dropzone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dropzone)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 1:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/4 "2009-09-24T01:27:49Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > It also says that John F. Kennedy viewed the chances of nuclear war over the Cuban Missile Crisis as being “somewhere between one out of three and even.” Considering the other side had Fidel jumping up and down demanding that the USSR push the button and we have Nikita Khrushchev’s diplomatic skills :eek: and common sense to thank for being alive today, JFK might’ve been generous. ---
**Author:** ![fuzzypickles](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/9d8465/32.png) [@fuzzypickles](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/fuzzypickles)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 1:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/5 "2009-09-24T01:48:51Z")
Technically speaking, [we’ve already had a nuclear war.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) It’s impossible to determine how history would have been different if events had been, well, different. So far we’re only aware of one civilization with the capability for nuclear war, and while it’s unlikely that full-scale nuclear war will erupt in the near future (rogue states like North Korea aside) there’s no guarantee that another situation with two antagonistic superpowers will ever arise again. I do think the “odds” regarding situations like the Cuban Missile Crisis are overstated, however – common sense has a habit of winning out, especially when the potential for global annihilation is a known certainty. ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/6 "2009-09-24T02:04:40Z")
> [@fuzzypickles](#): > > I do think the “odds” regarding situations like the Cuban Missile Crisis are overstated, however – common sense has a habit of winning out, especially when the potential for global annihilation is a known certainty. Indeed. Self-preservation is a strong force. One generally doesn’t get to the top of the heap if you don’t have basic love for yourself (ignoring the arts, where success and effort aren’t generally linked). ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 2:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/7 "2009-09-24T02:18:53Z")
> [@fuzzypickles](#): > > Technically speaking, [we’ve already had a nuclear war.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) > > It’s impossible to determine how history would have been different if events had been, well, different. So far we’re only aware of one civilization with the capability for nuclear war, and while it’s unlikely that full-scale nuclear war will erupt in the near future (rogue states like North Korea aside) there’s no guarantee that another situation with two antagonistic superpowers will ever arise again. > > I do think the “odds” regarding situations like the Cuban Missile Crisis are overstated, however – common sense has a habit of winning out, especially when the potential for global annihilation is a known certainty. Do we want to expand the discussion to include scenarios like Israel vs. Iran or India vs. Pakistan? ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/8 "2009-09-24T02:38:11Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Do we want to expand the discussion to include scenarios like Israel vs. Iran or India vs. Pakistan? I suppose I was thinking of a global war between the Us and USSR. A regional nuclear war is like a knife fight: highly interesting to watch from a safe distance, something you don’t want to get drawn into. ---
**Author:** ![Sailboat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sailboat/32/461_2.png) [@Sailboat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sailboat)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/9 "2009-09-24T03:07:57Z")
> [@fuzzypickles](#): > > Technically speaking, [we’ve already had a nuclear war.](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_War_II) Point taken, but I think most people use “a nuclear war” as shorthand when they are really thinking “a nuclear _exchange_.” ---
**Author:** ![Duckster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/duckster/32/1244_2.png) [@Duckster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Duckster)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 3:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/10 "2009-09-24T03:31:26Z")
[According to this Wired article, Russia has the Doomsday Device](http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/17-10/mf_deadhand?currentPage=all) that was created as a result of Reagan’s attitude in the 1980s. The Perimeter System lives. ---
**Author:** ![Lunchy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/848f3c/32.png) [@Lunchy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lunchy)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 7:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/11 "2009-09-24T07:01:11Z")
I dont know what weapons will be used in WW3, but sticks and stones will be used in WW4! -E.E para ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 24, 2009, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-odds-did-we-beat-by-not-having-a-nuclear-war-by-now/511298/12 "2009-09-24T07:06:28Z")
> [@Duckster](#): > > [According to this Wired article, Russia has the Doomsday Device](http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/17-10/mf_deadhand?currentPage=all) that was created as a result of Reagan’s attitude in the 1980s. > > The Perimeter System lives. Which, ironically enough (from what I understand of this article), was implemented to _lessen_ the chances of nuclear war, by assuring hardliners that they wouldn’t be caught with their pants down.