# What percentage minimally qualifies for the term "vast majority"? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [August 29, 2017, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984 "2017-08-29T00:59:08Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/41 "2017-08-29T19:01:21Z")
I have to agree with the idea that it’s context dependent. But, to answer the OP’s question, it’s clearly wrong if it’s not a majority, so \<50% is the first answer. I’d call it not controversial after 95%. The more reasonable range is greater than 66.6% and 85%. from 85-95, some may argue, and some situations may not apply. And most people want something bigger than a majority for super majority, and a 2:1 is a reasonable start. I don’t think supermajorities factor in except in politics. They aren’t a think outside of places where people vote. These are defined by rules. A vast majority could be more or less, really, as it’s intentionally imprecise. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/42 "2017-08-29T19:09:11Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > I don’t think supermajorities factor in except in politics. They aren’t a think outside of places where people vote. These are defined by rules. A vast majority could be more or less, really, as it’s intentionally imprecise. Naw, “supermajorities” are a factor in business as well as politics. They show up in shareholder agreements, often as a requirement to limit the possibility of a takeover. There is of course no set definition of the term, but from 60-75% are the most common ones. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/43 "2017-08-29T19:17:26Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Naw, “supermajorities” are a factor in business as well as politics. They show up in shareholder agreements, often as a requirement to limit the possibility of a takeover. There is of course no set definition of the term, but from 60-75% are the most common ones. Yeah, I used the wrong word. It’s still a voting sort of thing, really, is what I mean. You know, the shareholders vote for something, and their agreements say that a certain percentage must agree for the motion to carry. When it comes to, say, an opinion poll, I’d say there’s no such thing. Only if one has been defined ahead of time (by the agreements, in the above case) can one exist. ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 7:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/44 "2017-08-29T19:59:38Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > …“fair chance”, which I think is somewhere in the range of 10% and 70%. I was puzzled as to your wide range at first, but as the conversation has progressed, I think you are spot on with this, again showing the importance of context. > [@MrDibble](#): > > “fair chance” is a relative measure, not absolutely quantifiable - e.g. for a coin toss, it’s 50%, for pulling an ace it’s 4/52, etc. It’s synonymous with “unbiased chance” I disagree. Although I think the actual probability is conditioned heavily by context and can fall in a wide range depending on expectations, I don’t think that there is any connotation of “unbiased”. I think “fair chance” is synonymous with “reasonable chance”, i.e. what Richard said - > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > …Here, “fair” means something like “less than good,” rather than “equally weighted.” As for the Bay Of Pigs > [@Richard\_Parker](#): > > I ask because a military assessment of the likelihood of success of the Bay of Pigs operation put it as a “fair chance.” Evidently, JFK understood that to mean something like 60%, whereas the planners thought it more like 15%. > [@Chronos](#): > > …If Kennedy interpreted it as meaning “definitely over 50%”, then the miscommunication was his, not his analysts’. I disagree strongly with Chronos. In this context, I think describing something has having a “fair chance” of success implies that it is a reasonable policy option, worthy of consideration. Clearly 15% would not qualify. For something with 15% chance of success to qualify, either the military/political situation would have to be utterly desperate, and/or the consequences of the attempt failing would have to be negligible. A situation where a \<15% chance of success might be described as a “fair chance”? Grandma has forgotten her computer password. Could it be her grandson’s name or birthday? There’s a fair chance that could be it. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/45 "2017-08-29T20:10:32Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > I was puzzled as to your wide range at first, but as the conversation has progressed, I think you are spot on with this, again showing the importance of context. Thanks! ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 8:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/46 "2017-08-29T20:27:04Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Yeah, I used the wrong word. It’s still a voting sort of thing, really, is what I mean. You know, the shareholders vote for something, and their agreements say that a certain percentage must agree for the motion to carry. > > When it comes to, say, an opinion poll, I’d say there’s no such thing. Only if one has been defined ahead of time (by the agreements, in the above case) can one exist. That’s fair enough. It would be weirdly and inappropriately technical to use the term “supermajority” when, say, discussing something like “the vast majority of choices in this situation are likely to end in disaster”. But then, it would be oddly technical to assign a precise percentage, or even a range, to such a phrase, as well. If such a thing absolutely has to be done though, no harm in importing concepts from business and politics … ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 9:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/47 "2017-08-29T21:46:55Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Way I see it, “vast majority” implies something higher than “supermajority”. Common “supermajority” levels in various contexts are 75%, 66% and 60%. > > So based on that, something over 75% is arguably a “vast majority”, meaning “more than the usual supermajority levels, but not necessarily unanimous or overwhelming”. > > So it would go like this: > > - Majority (50% plus 1 - 60%) > > - Supermajority (range of 60%-75%) > > - Vast majority (75% plus 1 - 95%) > > - Overwhelming majority (95% plus 1 - 100% minus 1) > > - Unanimous (100%) > > As for “fair chance”, my immediate suspicion would be something like 50%, though it would be highly context-specific. Those sound like numbers I could agree with. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/48 "2017-08-29T21:53:10Z")
Incidentally, there’s also a poll [here](http://scienceblogs.com/principles/2012/02/10/language-and-statistics-poll-d/) you can look at for comparison. I still think context has little to do with characterizing something as “vast majority” or not. For me, that characterization is independent of context, much in the same way “majority” is. For those who don’t want to click, results are: 91-100% - 19.44% (77 votes) 81-90% - 31.57% (125 votes) 76-80% - 21.72 % (86 votes) 71-75% - 10.35 % (41 votes) 66-70% - 8.33% (33 votes) Rest of the options: 34 votes So a majority of respondents in that particular poll vote that “vast majority” starts at least at 81%, and 83% of respondents think it starts at least at 71%. (And this is discarding the fact that about 5% of the respondents had a bullshit answer to the question) ---
**Author:** ![Riemann](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/riemann/32/3133_2.png) [@Riemann](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Riemann)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/49 "2017-08-29T22:07:30Z")
> [@Malthus](#): > > Way I see it, “vast majority” implies something higher than “supermajority”. Common “supermajority” levels in various contexts are 75%, 66% and 60%… I don’t think I agree with this approach, because the terms _supermajority_ and _vast majority_ are just in different categories. _Supermajority_ is, as you say, a technical term. The number is not always the same, but it is specified by the governing procedural regulations. In other words, the relevant supermajority percentage is something with a GQ answer. “Vast majority” is just part of colloquial language, open to some degree of subjective interpretation, something with an IMHO answer. In principle, procedural rules could require a 90% supermajority for some purpose (implausible in politics, but not in a shareholder vote). In that case, it might be true that the vast majority (85%) vote in favor, but fail to achieved the required supermajority. ---
**Author:** ![Malthus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/85f322/32.png) [@Malthus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Malthus)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/50 "2017-08-29T22:16:49Z")
> [@Riemann](#): > > I don’t think I agree with this approach, because I think the terms _supermajority_ and _vast majority_ are in different categories. > > _Supermajority_ is, as you say, a technical term. The number is not always the same, but it is specified by the governing procedural regulations. In other words, the relevant supermajority percentage is something with a GQ answer. > > “Vast majority” is just part of colloquial language, open to some degree of subjective interpretation, something with an IMHO answer. > > In principle, procedural rules could require a 90% supermajority for some purpose. In that case, it might be true that the vast majority (85%) vote in favor, but fail to achieved the required supermajority. Certainly possible. Which is why I’m just using the term as an approximation, and using the “common” supermajority percentages. It is _possible_ for a supermajority to range from 51% to 99%, but by far the most common are 60-75%, establishing a handy, but not technically accurate or legally binding in any way, handle on what is ‘more than a majority’ and ‘less than a vast majority’, other that (say) ‘well, that percentage feels about right’. 😉 That is, of course, simply my way of arriving at a subjective IMHO answer. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/51 "2017-08-29T22:41:35Z")
In that poll, the idea of 2-1 as a bare minimum seems to hold up. Below 66%, the bottom drops out. ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/52 "2017-08-29T22:47:45Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > In that poll, the idea of 2-1 as a bare minimum seems to hold up. Below 66%, the bottom drops out. Yes, I suppose you can say an incontrovertible “vast majority” of respondents say 66% and up. 🙂 ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/53 "2017-08-29T22:49:55Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > In that poll, the idea of 2-1 as a bare minimum seems to hold up. Below 66%, the bottom drops out. Yes, I suppose you can say an incontrovertible “vast majority” of respondents say 66% and up. 🙂 Though it you were using 67% as the benchmark for “vast majority” then the vast majority of respondents there start at the 76% level. 🙂 (73% of respondents say that “vast majority” comprises a percentage of at least 76%). ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 10:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/54 "2017-08-29T22:56:08Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Yes, I suppose you can say an incontrovertible “vast majority” of respondents say 66% and up. 🙂 You could! Nice. > [@pulykamell](#): > > Though it you were using 67% as the benchmark for “vast majority” then the vast majority of respondents there start at the 76% level. 🙂 (73% of respondents say that “vast majority” comprises a percentage of at least 76%). Aha, interesting recursion. And if we then look at what at least 76% agree on? ---
**Author:** ![pulykamell](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pulykamell/32/3166_2.png) [@pulykamell](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pulykamell)\ **Post date:** [August 29, 2017, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/55 "2017-08-29T23:16:33Z")
> [@SlackerInc](#): > > You could! Nice. > > Aha, interesting recursion. And if we then look at what at least 76% agree on? Then through a bit of extrapolation, I’m guessing somewhere around 74% we could get the extra 3% we need to make 76%. ---
**Author:** ![SlackerInc](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slackerinc/32/275_2.png) [@SlackerInc](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlackerInc)\ **Post date:** [August 30, 2017, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/56 "2017-08-30T00:31:49Z")
> [@pulykamell](#): > > Then through a bit of extrapolation, I’m guessing somewhere around 74% we could get the extra 3% we need to make 76%. 3/4 does seem like a pretty reasonable middle ground between stingy and permissive on this question. ---
**Author:** ![rbroome](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/838e76/32.png) [@rbroome](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rbroome)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 3:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/57 "2017-08-31T15:15:40Z")
I think it also depends on whether the measure is statistical or not. If we are talking about a sample from a population, in my mind the requirement for “vast majority” is lower-to me perhaps 67-70%. Because it is an estimate. If we are talking about polling the entire population-for instance a vote in the Senate, then the meaning changes somewhat. Vast majority in this cast would be 75-80%. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/58 "2017-08-31T21:20:51Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > I’d say that a “vast majority” is around 90% (90.91%, if I want to be precise), because that’s the point at which one side exceeds the other by an order of magnitude. > [@Riemann](#): > > But this is less compelling when you consider that this notion of order of magnitude is related to our arbitrary use of base 10. In such a case, “percent” pretty much compels the use of base 10. ---
**Author:** ![kaylasdad99](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kaylasdad99/32/3398_2.png) [@kaylasdad99](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/kaylasdad99)\ **Post date:** [August 31, 2017, 9:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/59 "2017-08-31T21:23:37Z")
Interesting side question: what if your “vast majority” is merely a vast _plurality_? Option 1 is rated at 49% Options 2-52 are 1% each. ---
**Author:** ![Dereknocue67](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/6de8d8/32.png) [@Dereknocue67](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dereknocue67)\ **Post date:** [September 1, 2017, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984/60 "2017-09-01T09:07:53Z")
A ‘vast majority’, and I’m getting extremely technical here with mathematical and scientific terms, is a _smidgeon_ or perhaps a _teensy bit_ more than ‘most’. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-minimally-qualifies-for-the-term-vast-majority/794984.md?page=4)