# What percentage of people could do this, if they their life depended on it? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [July 9, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671 "2012-07-09T05:54:40Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![supery00n](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5f9b8f/32.png) [@supery00n](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/supery00n)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 5:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/1 "2012-07-09T05:54:40Z")
I just read an article about how difficult it is for a person to run a 4:00 mile, and how not just one quality but many, such as natural talent, character, relentlessness, and commitment. I’m pretty sure that if I had to run a mile in 4:00 minutes or I’d be burned at the stake, I still wouldn’t be able to do it. I was wondering what you think the odds of the average 25 year old male being able to do something like run a 4 minute mile under the pain of a horrible death is? -Run a 4 minute mile after a year of personal training and three trials allowed. ~1 in 10,000. -Write a single book that sells 10 million copies in the next twenty years; not allowed to purchase more than one copy of your own book. ~1 in 1,000. -Be able to slam dunk a basketball on a standard height rim at least 5 times out of 10 trials after a year of training. ~1 in 1,000 -Score 42-45 on the MCAT, with two years of preparation and tutoring provided for free, and five attempts allowed. ~1 in 500 -Win the Fields Medal (must be done before age of 40). ~1 in 10,000 Also, some random probabilities, this time with reference to the 25 year old random male or female (either one/or average), but without the element of them having to do so…just living their lives. -That he or she dies in the next year. ~1 in 1000 -That he or she will make a hundred million dollars in the next 10 years, not with inheritance. ~1 in 100,0000 -That he/she will have sex with 100 men/women over the next 20 years, not through prostitution. ~1 in 5,000 -That he/she will become a full university professor. ~1 in 5,000 -That he/she will become a United States Congressperson (either U.S. Senate or U.S. House) ~1 in 10,000 -That he/she will have more than 8 kids with one spouse. ~1 in 1000 -That he/she will have a Wikipedia entry in the next 20 years. ~1 in 5,000 Which ones do you think _almost definitely_ have a worse than 10% chance of someone from a/your typical public high school graduating class (size 500) either being able to achieve/successfully achieving a listed task? ---
**Author:** ![supery00n](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/5f9b8f/32.png) [@supery00n](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/supery00n)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 6:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/2 "2012-07-09T06:00:54Z")
Sorry, I posted in the wrong forum.:smack: ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 6:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/3 "2012-07-09T06:08:49Z")
> [@supery00n](#): > > Also, some random probabilities, this time with reference to the 25 year old random male or female (either one/or average), but without the element of them having to do so…just living their lives. > -That he or she dies in the next year. > ~1 in 1000 That’s actually pretty close. In 2007, it was around 1 in 971 in the United States. ---
**Author:** ![samclem](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@samclem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/samclem)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/4 "2012-07-09T17:56:26Z")
Moved from GQ to IMHO **samclem** ---
**Author:** ![Leaffan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/leaffan/32/299_2.png) [@Leaffan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaffan)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/5 "2012-07-09T18:09:16Z")
Odds of people responding to this thread, 3/390, so far. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 6:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/6 "2012-07-09T18:14:07Z")
[As of Feb. 2011, only 1192 men](http://trackandfieldnews.com/archive/worldS4.pdf) worldwide have run sub four for a mile.(PDF) Certainly none on only a year of training. ---
**Author:** ![pancakes3](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ba9def/32.png) [@pancakes3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/pancakes3)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 9:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/7 "2012-07-09T21:13:13Z")
are these your WAG’s or is there a cite? i’m doubtful on a lot of these odds, most glaringly that it’s only twice as unlikely to become a congressman than a college professor. (actually MOST glaringly is how similar and perfect-numbered these odds are) ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 9:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/8 "2012-07-09T21:55:38Z")
> [@supery00n](#): > > -Write a single book that sells 10 million copies in the next twenty years; not allowed to purchase more than one copy of your own book. > ~1 in 1,000. > > -Be able to slam dunk a basketball on a standard height rim at least 5 times out of 10 trials after a year of training. > ~1 in 1,000 I love that you quote these with the same odds. I just love it. Hint: The odds for the top one should be about 1 in a billion. Maybe 1 in 500,000,000 if we’re feeling generous. > [@](#): > > -That he/she will have a Wikipedia entry in the next 20 years. > ~1 in 5,000 Technically, this one has odds of 1:1 since there’s no barrier to creating a Wikipedia entry about anything. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 10:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/9 "2012-07-09T22:17:43Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > I love that you quote these with the same odds. I just love it. > > Hint: The odds for the top one should be about 1 in a billion. Maybe 1 in 500,000,000 if we’re feeling generous. For all of them, we need to remember that there’s an extra motivation in the OP. Most folks will write a bestseller, or else they’ll do a less exciting job. The OP suggests that they’ll write as though their life depends on it. The central question is, how much does success depend on motivation? ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 9, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/10 "2012-07-09T22:42:42Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > For all of them, we need to remember that there’s an extra motivation in the OP. Most folks will write a bestseller, or else they’ll do a less exciting job. The OP suggests that they’ll write as though their life depends on it. > > The central question is, how much does success depend on motivation? Unfortunately, the OP lists things that generally are either (a) physically impossible for large swaths of the public (dunking, 4-minute mile) or (b) almost entirely luck (writing a bestseller). And winning the Fields medal is actually both. The only one I could see being even remotely within the odds he stated is the MCAT one. If someone crammed for two years with sufficient motivation that type of score is probably possible. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 12:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/11 "2012-07-10T00:12:56Z")
> [@Jas09](#): > > Unfortunately, the OP lists things that generally are either (a) physically impossible for large swaths of the public (dunking, 4-minute mile) Sure–thus the estimate that, even with that crazy motivation, only 1 in 10,000 people could do it. I have absolutely no idea whether that’s a reasonable guess or not. But its reasonableness cannot be determined by looking just at how many people have actually run a 4-minute mile. ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/12 "2012-07-10T00:16:49Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > I have absolutely no idea whether that’s a reasonable guess or not. But its reasonableness cannot be determined by looking just at how many people have actually run a 4-minute mile. It’s a terrible guess. Like **Jas09** said, most of that stuff is impossible for 99.9% of the planet. No amount of “I will put a bullet in your brain unless you do it” motivation will make a difference. ---
**Author:** ![Jas09](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/d07c76/32.png) [@Jas09](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jas09)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/13 "2012-07-10T03:28:27Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > It’s a terrible guess. Like **Jas09** said, most of that stuff is impossible for 99.9% of the planet. No amount of “I will put a bullet in your brain unless you do it” motivation will make a difference. Well, he has a point. 99.9% is 1 in 1000. So 1 in 10,000 is only 10% of those. I still think those odds are too low. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/14 "2012-07-10T03:34:03Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > It’s a terrible guess. Like **Jas09** said, most of that stuff is impossible for 99.9% of the planet. No amount of “I will put a bullet in your brain unless you do it” motivation will make a difference. As **Jas** points out, if your claim is that the four-minute mile is impossible for 99.9% of the population, you think ten times as many people can do it as the OP does :). ---
**Author:** ![Justin\_Bailey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/justin_bailey/32/8792_2.png) [@Justin\_Bailey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Justin_Bailey)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 3:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/15 "2012-07-10T03:34:59Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > As **Jas** points out, if your claim is that the four-minute mile is impossible for 99.9% of the population, you think ten times as many people can do it as the OP does :). Pretend a bar is sitting over the last 9. ---
**Author:** ![BigT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bigt/32/12044_2.png) [@BigT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BigT)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/16 "2012-07-10T06:49:21Z")
> [@Justin\_Bailey](#): > > Technically, this one has odds of 1:1 since there’s no barrier to creating a Wikipedia entry about anything. Only if you discount the idea of it being deleted within a day. ---
**Author:** ![Namkcalb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c89c15/32.png) [@Namkcalb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Namkcalb)\ **Post date:** [July 10, 2012, 7:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/17 "2012-07-10T07:51:43Z")
> [@BigT](#): > > Only if you discount the idea of it being deleted within a day. All you need is to create two authoritive looking sites to cite, one positive and one “negative”, then make hyperlinks from other wikipedia pages. Give me a name, any name and I’ll have it on wikipedia for at least a month. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2012, 10:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/18 "2012-07-11T10:42:34Z")
> [@supery00n](#): > > -Write a single book that sells 10 million copies in the next twenty years; not allowed to purchase more than one copy of your own book. > ~1 in 1,000. Odds are way too high. Motivation doesn’t mean squat when it comes to writing a book, or getting anyone to buy it. Maybe you could concoct a way to sell your book for $0.01 and get your “I’ll die if you don’t buy my book” concept out there. > [@](#): > > -Be able to slam dunk a basketball on a standard height rim at least 5 times out of 10 trials after a year of training. > ~1 in 1,000 Odds are way too low. In my High School, we had about 1,500 students and a bunch of them could dunk without any dedicated training at all. Basically any healthy athletic male over 6’ tall has a shot at dunking. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [July 11, 2012, 1:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/19 "2012-07-11T13:15:04Z")
> [@supery00n](#): > > -Win the Fields Medal (must be done before age of 40). > ~1 in 10,000 Nah, the odds against this are far more astronomical than that. If I woke up tomorrow in the body of a 25 year old, and had 15 years to win the Fields Medal, I doubt my odds would be that good - _and I’ve already got a Ph.D. in mathematics_, which puts me in a hell of a lot better starting position than the average bear. The odds against an average 25 year old would be astronomical. ---
**Author:** ![Darryl\_Lict](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/7cd45c/32.png) [@Darryl\_Lict](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Darryl_Lict)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2012, 11:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671/20 "2012-07-14T11:07:16Z")
The Wikipedia entry sounds easy. Just go buy a couple guns and a bunch of ammo and head to a crowded theater and shoot it up. You’d definitely have a Wikipedia entry although your life would probably be unhappy in the aftermath. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-of-people-could-do-this-if-they-their-life-depended-on-it/627671.md?page=2)