# What percentage probability would be considered "beyond a reasonable doubt?" **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [December 10, 2002, 7:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827 "2002-12-10T19:53:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 4\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![dash1729](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/839c29/32.png) [@dash1729](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dash1729)\ **Post date:** [June 3, 2015, 9:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827/101 "2015-06-03T21:25:26Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Instead most people are going to either think the accused is definitely guilty, or, less likely, probably innocent. I’m not sure about this. I’m not a lawyer and I’ve never served on a jury. However when called for jury duty once, I made it far enough in the selection process before being excused for the lawyers and the judge to start talking about the definition of “reasonable doubt”. The prosecuting attorney didn’t talk in percentages, but she did pose the following question for the jury (of course I’m paraphrasing since I don’t remember the exact words): “I’m not required to prove the defendant guilty beyond **any** doubt. I’m only required to prove that the defendant is guilty beyond **any reasonable** doubt. Are you comfortable with this concept?” Presumably this was with a view to excusing any juror who would require the higher standard of proof (beyond **any** doubt). She was clearly preparing the jury for the possibility that the defendant might not be quite definitely guilty, but that it was close enough the jury should convict anyways. ---
**Author:** ![Alan\_Smithee](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/2acd7d/32.png) [@Alan\_Smithee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Alan_Smithee)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 7:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827/102 "2015-06-04T07:06:18Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Your arithmetic is correct. But a boatload of innocent people may still be going to prison. > > How would a juror, or even a judge, feel about letting a likely rapist go free because of a small but real chance of innocence? Very badly! And you’d feel almost as bad about condemning someone to a long prison sentence if you thought the chance of innocence was real. > > As a result, jurors are IMHO virtually never going to conclude that there is a 5 percent chance of innocence (or the equivalent uncertainty for the majority of people who don’t think in percents). Instead most people are going to either think the accused is definitely guilty, or, less likely, probably innocent. Anything else is too painful. I served on a jury in a case involving child sexual abuse. All of us on the jury agreed that the defendant had almost certainly committed the abuse. But we also all agreed that “almost certain” wasn’t “beyond a reasonable doubt.” So we acquitted. One of the hardest damn things I’ve ever done. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_other_waldo_pepper/32/12370_2.png) [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Other_Waldo_Pepper)\ **Post date:** [June 4, 2015, 11:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827/103 "2015-06-04T11:55:14Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Instead most people are going to either think the accused is definitely guilty, or, less likely, probably innocent. Anything else is too painful. My mother served on a jury, and said she agreed with the other jurors: _the guy was probably guilty, but that’s not good enough to convict, so he’s free to go._ Drug case, incidentally. ---
**Author:** ![KidCharlemagne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/ed8c4c/32.png) [@KidCharlemagne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/KidCharlemagne)\ **Post date:** [June 5, 2015, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827/104 "2015-06-05T18:54:28Z")
Speaking of low probability scenarios that are nevertheless true, what are the freaking odds that I would come back to SD after a 2 year absence and find a thread I started 13 years ago on the front page? Unreal > [@The\_Other\_Waldo\_Pepper](#): > > My mother served on a jury, and said she agreed with the other jurors: _the guy was probably guilty, but that’s not good enough to convict, so he’s free to go._ > > Drug case, incidentally. This is the single most important thing that jurors must understand. My guess is a lot of jurors think “probably did it” is beyond a reasonable doubt. On another note, having watched documentaries like the The Central Park Five and Thin Blue Line where prosecutors are egregiously manipulating evidence, and other cases like the Duke lacrosse kids, even “beyond a reasonable doubt” seems scarely inadequate [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-percentage-probability-would-be-considered-beyond-a-reasonable-doubt/141827.md?page=5)