# What "Perfect Storm" Circumstances Could Make Individual Southern States Go Blue? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [March 14, 2012, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790 "2012-03-14T21:02:41Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 9:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/1 "2012-03-14T21:02:41Z")
General wisdom is that the GOP can count on winning the South in a Presidential Election. The inevitability of the South’s Electoral Votes, however, only goes to insure defeat when such circumstances arise that the “inevitable” is dispelled. [There was some talk in the Mississippi/Alabama Thread](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=645118) about the GOP being able to depend upon the South regardless of who their nominee will be. Others argued that while Southern conservatives may not vote for Obama, they very well may sit at home on Election Day- the suggestion being that the GOP must nominate a candidate who is liked in the South or risk losing some safe States due to low voter turnout. Looking at the Southern States on a State by State basis, what “Perfect Storm” would be required for reliably Red States to go Blue? Personally, based on absolutely no hard data- and directly opposed by the most recent evidence, I feel like Louisiana and Georgia should be Swing States. I just _feel like_ they _should be_. Clinton took Louisiana in both '92 and '96. He took Georgia in '92. New Orleans is required for Louisiana to go Blue. In 2008, the population of New Orleans was still only about 2/3 the size it was before Hurricane Katrina. The population number on New Orleans’ Wiki page is still _significantly_ lower than the pre-Katrina population, but the number listed is from 2010. Anyone know how much growth there’s been in the past two years? Georgia, well I guess Georgia is reliably Red but it _feels like_ it should be a Swing State. I think I’m just saying this because everyone I’ve ever met from Georgia has been both really cool and quite liberal- though, it must not be insignificant that none of them are _living in Georgia_ when I meet them. I think Virgina is pretty much a Swing State from now on. Obama’s victory was helped by demographic changes from the growing D.C. suburbs, am I right about this? I still don’t quite understand how he won North Carolina, but then I do think about how, like Georgia, everyone I’ve met from North Carolina has been really cool and quite liberal- but, again, they’re _not living in North Carolina_ when I meet them. I don’t really count Florida as the South. Northern Florida is the South, but the rest of Florida is very much it’s own thing and Florida as a whole is quite demonstrably a Swing State. Other Southern States won by Clinton in BOTH '92 and '96: Arkansas, Kentucky, Tennessee, West Virginia That makes 5 that Clinton won in _both_ elections. I would roll my eyes whenever friends would cry out about Bush “stealing” Florida. Gore would have been President without Florida if he had won any one of those 5 States- like, I don’t know, his _home_ State maybe? What Southern States do you think could go Blue given the right combination of circumstances? What circumstances do you see as absolutely required to create that Perfect Storm? I do not mean to limit the discussion to the 2012 election. You may think a Southern State is winnable by the right Democrat but not by Obama- I’m looking for that to be part of the discussion. My (limited) thoughts on possible ingredients required- although I discuss them generally, not applying them to specific States: Low GOP voter turnout due to lack of enthusiasm for the GOP candidate- I see a lot of disagreement on the SDMB about this issue. The GOP did grow its support in the South be reaching out to people who _were staying home on Election Day_ previously, but some seem to argue that these people are not going to go back to sitting out the election. It seems that many believe that all Republicans are going to go to the polls to vote against the Democrat no matter how much they dislike their own candidate. The Black Vote- There are a _lot_ of Black people in the South. Still, they don’t seem to have much of an effect on elections. Are they not participating? If every eligible voter in the Black community registered to vote, and if every one of them voted for the Democrat, which Southern States would turn Blue? A Democratic Candidate from the South- Clinton had a very strong organization and many long time connections in Arkansas, and neighboring Tennessee and Louisiana. This kind of support can have a significant effect come the General Election. My thoughts going into this OP were triggered by a handful of comments in the Mississippi/Alabama Thread that I linked above. Some of these quotes may expand the discussion: > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/21): > > GOP candidate will win THOSE states no matter WHO it is. > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/23): > > Southern performance in the GOP primary isn’t a total write-off; a Republican needs solid support in all of the South to win the election, as John McCain and Bob Dole proved. > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/17): > > And the south? They do not like him down there one iota. He’s a rich, liberal, flip-flopping, unlikeable, awkward, New Englandy, effete culty Mormon. _Next Three Quotes to be read together:_ > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/24): > > I can’t think of a state that Romney would lose and Santorum would win. > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/26): > > I wonder if North Carolina wouldn’t fit that bill. Obama carried it in 2008, but with a group of voters motivated to keep a Mormon out of the White House, Mitt might lose it. > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/31): > > What you are failing to take into account here is the people who will not vote for a Mormon. Period. > > They won’t vote for Obama of course but they _will_ sit out the election before they will vote for someone they think is a member of a cult. > [@Mississippi, Alabama, Hawaii, Samoa](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/mississippi-alabama-hawaii-samoa/615702/29): > > First, DFW, Centex, and Houston are very expensive advertising markets. Defending down there, particularly if you need to try to look invincible by carpetbombing the airwaves, will cost a fortune. > _\_ > Third, the Texas Democratic Party has been beaten down so often and broken so badly that it has trouble just keeping the lights on. Five-ten million bucks gets sent down there to help rebuild a statewide organization, and all of a sudden you’ve got campaign offices that are open after working hours, phone lines that aren’t disconnected, rallies that have food. “We don’t have to lose all the time” gets people out of the woodwork - and the demographics make it closer every election… ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/2 "2012-03-14T21:36:22Z")
I think Texas is the first shoe to drop, and it’ll happen relatively soon. The Latino vote, if it goes according to plan, is not to be messed with. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/3 "2012-03-14T21:42:27Z")
> [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I think Texas is the first shoe to drop, and it’ll happen relatively soon. The Latino vote, if it goes according to plan, is not to be messed with. If Texas becomes a swing state, the Republicans in their current form will not be able to compete nationally; they’d become a regional party. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 9:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/4 "2012-03-14T21:58:09Z")
> [@bienville](#): > > Clinton took Louisiana in both '92 and '96. Louisiana is the linch pin. > [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](#): > > I think Texas is the first shoe to drop, and it’ll happen relatively soon. The Latino vote, if it goes according to plan, is not to be messed with. Then it’s - Texas. Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania. ---
**Author:** ![Ludovic](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/7ab992/32.png) [@Ludovic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ludovic)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/5 "2012-03-14T22:06:07Z")
I don’t know what you mean by linch pin. If you mean the bellwether states for the upcoming Presidential election, IMO it’s gonna be Ohio and Florida again. – Obama’s not gonna pick up any states that he didn’t pick up last time. If he did, it will be a completely lopsided victory so we don’t need to worry about the other states. – If Obama picks up Ohio and Florida, all the other swing states combined won’t matter because they’re too small. – If Obama doesn’t pick up either Ohio OR Florida, then he will lose because most of the other swingable states are leaning even redder IMO so he won’t pick up any swing states. ---
**Author:** ![Kozmik](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/k/8dc957/32.png) [@Kozmik](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kozmik)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/6 "2012-03-14T22:16:39Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If Texas becomes a swing state, the Republicans in their current form will not be able to compete nationally; they’d become a regional party. 2012 will be about Texas. ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/7 "2012-03-14T22:16:57Z")
Virginia is arguably a blue state at this point, and NC is certainly gettable (RCP has Obama in a slight lead there v Romney, though almost all the polling seems to be from partisan pollsters). Demographic trends might drive Texas into voting Dem someday, but that’s a ways out, if it happens at all. Romney currently leads Obama there by 7 points. Florida is famous for being a purple state (somewhat bizarrely, given what a lock the GOP has on the state level gov’t). Federal level voting in the deep south is mainly along racial lines, with whites voting for the GOP and AAs for the Dems. White voters far outnumber blacks, so Lousiana, Missisippi, Alabama, etc will stay GOP for as long as that holds true. And its almost as true for the younger age cohorts as it is for the older age cohorts, so I doubt it will reverse any time soon. > [@Ludovic](#): > > – If Obama doesn’t pick up either Ohio OR Florida, then he will lose because most of the other swingable states are leaning even redder IMO so he won’t pick up any swing states. Virginia went for Obama by a wider margin the OH or FL in 2008 and polling tends to show Obama doing better there this cycle as well. So I could see him winning VA and loosing NC, FL and OH. Even if he then loses IN (the other really close state in '08) he still wins, at least if I’m doing the math right. Romney really needs to totally sweep last cycles swing states to win. ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/8 "2012-03-14T22:40:58Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Louisiana is the linch pin. > > Then it’s - > > Texas. > > Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. > > Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania. I’d flip your next tiers over. Texas Indiana Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming Ohio and Pennsylvania are “swing” states, with varying emphasis on the swing. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/9 "2012-03-14T22:45:51Z")
The idea of Texas becoming a Swing State anytime soon is very surprising to me. Sure, there’s a lot of big urban areas in Texas and the formula in most Swing States is that the urban areas balance out the sticks . . . but, in Texas there’s a _lot_ of sticks. Also, I’ve always gotten the impression that even the urban areas are pretty Red in Texas- except Austin and, to a lesser extent, Houston. Does anyone with a finger closer to the pulse of the Texas political heartbeat want to fight my ignorance here? Anyone want to make a strong argument that Texas could be a Swing State by 2016? I interpreted **littlespeedysuperbike** ’s comment in the other Thread as merely suggesting that a Democrat could force a Republican to actually have to spend money in Texas. I didn’t think the suggestion was that a Democrat could actually _win_. **Kozmik** , you think Texas is ready to be a Swing State in _this_ election? What have you got to persuade me? I’m trying to find some current good population numbers and demographics for New Orleans. I’m actually particularly interested in this. Clinton couldn’t have won Louisiana without New Orleans but Katrina weakened the city by displacing such a huge amount of the population. ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 10:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/10 "2012-03-14T22:52:50Z")
Surprised to see mention of Oregon. Yes, the vote is always close in Oregon but it hasn’t gone to a Republican since 1984. They even went for Dukakis when _California_ went for Bush. Still, general Swing State discussions will always throw out the same examples. I’m specifically interested in thoughts of just how strong of a hold the GOP has on the South- precisely because it is so often thrown into conversation as if it is an absolute truth. **Simplicio** , you really think Virginia can nearly be counted as a Blue State? I can readily accept it as a Swing State, but I’m cautious to think of it as Blue just yet. ---
**Author:** ![Algorithm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/algorithm/32/12204_2.png) [@Algorithm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Algorithm)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/11 "2012-03-14T23:09:08Z")
> [@Kozmik](#): > > Louisiana is the linch pin. > > Then it’s - > > Texas. > > Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming. > > Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania. Idaho and Wyoming are the second and third most Mormon states in the country. Between them, they have 7 electoral votes. Obama’s time and campaign money is better spent elsewhere. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [March 14, 2012, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/12 "2012-03-14T23:17:43Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > If Texas becomes a swing state, the Republicans in their current form will not be able to compete nationally; they’d become a regional party. If you look at [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gastner_map_purple_byarea_bycounty.png) (“red-blue” map of the U.S. broken down by county, and shaded red to purple to blue according to local vote proportions), and then morph it into [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cartlinearlarge.png) (cartogram of the preceding, proportional areas of counties distorted so that area is proportional to their populations), you’ll see that even Texas has some big blue and purple regions/populations – and, that, as elsewhere in America, the metropolitan areas are more blue/liberal than the countryside. So, it’s not unthinkable – if not this year, maybe in two to four more years, depending on demographic changes, generational changes, and growth in the metro areas. And all those illegal Mexicans Obama is going to naturalize and register, heh-heh-heh. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 2:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/13 "2012-03-15T02:29:06Z")
Some of those states people “feel” should go blue, like Georgia, Virginia and Texas, have huge military populations, which vote conservative. Obama may have won Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, but he didn’t even win Travis County, which includes Austin. Frankly, I think the subset of Republican voters who think Mormonism is a cult pretty much overlaps with the subset who believes Obama is a Muslim, so I think they’ll hold their noses and vote for the one who’s sort of like a Christian instead of letting Sharia law triumph over the Constitution. ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/14 "2012-03-15T02:37:27Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > If you look at [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Gastner_map_purple_byarea_bycounty.png) (“red-blue” map of the U.S. broken down by county, and shaded red to purple to blue according to local vote proportions), and then morph it into [this](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Cartlinearlarge.png) (cartogram of the preceding, proportional areas of counties distorted so that area is proportional to their populations), you’ll see that even Texas has some big blue and purple regions/populations – and, that, as elsewhere in America, the metropolitan areas are more blue/liberal than the countryside. So, it’s not unthinkable – if not this year, maybe in two to four more years, depending on demographic changes, generational changes, and growth in the metro areas. And all those illegal Mexicans Obama is going to naturalize and register, heh-heh-heh. The Republican party is going to evolve-we’ve already seen signs of it this election. The future of American politics is IMO going to be that of an economically liberal (read classically liberal/neoliberal), internationalist party based on a coalition of the upper middle class, professionals, “new” Evangelicals, Hispanics, and Millennials against a populist one of “ethnics”, blacks, working class, “old” Catholics and Evangelicals, and petit bourgeoisie. It’d be interesting which party becomes which… ---
**Author:** ![bienville](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/4bbf92/32.png) [@bienville](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bienville)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 2:40am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/15 "2012-03-15T02:40:28Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Some of those states people “feel” should go blue, like Georgia, Virginia and Texas, have huge military populations, which vote conservative. Obama may have won Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, but he didn’t even win Travis County, which includes Austin. Oooh, excellent point that I hadn’t thought of. Wow, I thought Austin was the Bluest Texas there was. The population figures currently on Wiki give Austin 79% of the entire population of Travis County (County pop 1M, city of Austin pop 790K). ---
**Author:** ![Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e480ec/32.png) [@Least\_Original\_User\_Name\_Ever](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Least_Original_User_Name_Ever)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/16 "2012-03-15T03:11:56Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > The Republican party is going to evolve-we’ve already seen signs of it this election. The future of American politics is IMO going to be that of an economically liberal (read classically liberal/neoliberal), internationalist party based on a coalition of the upper middle class, professionals, “new” Evangelicals, Hispanics, and Millennials against a populist one of “ethnics”, blacks, working class, “old” Catholics and Evangelicals, and petit bourgeoisie. It’d be interesting which party becomes which… But how does that expand the Republican base and make it so they win more national offices? With regards to the Catholics and Evangelicals, every action causes a reaction. They’re seeing more and more of their influence wane as time goes on, and they’re trying harder and harder to grasp what they’ve got left. ---
**Author:** ![Measure\_for\_Measure](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/measure_for_measure/32/557_2.png) [@Measure\_for\_Measure](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Measure_for_Measure)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 4:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/17 "2012-03-15T04:47:04Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > The Republican party is going to evolve-we’ve already seen signs of it this election. The future of American politics is IMO going to be that of an economically liberal (read classically liberal/neoliberal), internationalist party based on a coalition of the upper middle class, professionals, “new” Evangelicals, Hispanics, and Millennials against a populist one of “ethnics”, blacks, working class, “old” Catholics and Evangelicals, and petit bourgeoisie. It’d be interesting which party becomes which… There is some evidence that professionals are trending Democratic, due to the Republican Party’s aversion to science and embrace of crackpot economics. Also, for the $200-400,000 set, a lot of the benefits they accrued due to GWBush’s tax cuts were clawed back by the Alternative Minimum Tax: some of the 1% have figured out that the GOP is more focused on the donor class or the top 0.1%. Admittedly some of this is murky, but here’s [one cite:](http://prospect.org/article/back-future) PROFESSIONALS: Professionals, who are, roughly speaking, college-educated producers of services and ideas, used to be the most staunchly Republican of all occupational groups. In the 1960 presidential election, they backed Richard Nixon by 61 percent to 38 percent. But in the 1980s these voters – now chiefly working for large corporations and bureaucracies rather than on their own, and heavily influenced by the environmental, civil-rights, and feminist movements – began to vote Democratic. In the four elections from 1988 to 2000, they backed Democrats by an average of 52 percent to 40 percent. I’d like to see that updated through 2008. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 5:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/18 "2012-03-15T05:18:52Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > The Republican party is going to evolve-we’ve already seen signs of it this election. The future of American politics is IMO going to be that of an economically liberal (read classically liberal/neoliberal), internationalist party based on a coalition of the upper middle class, professionals, “new” Evangelicals, Hispanics, and Millennials against a populist one of “ethnics”, blacks, working class, “old” Catholics and Evangelicals, and petit bourgeoisie. It’d be interesting which party becomes which… “Petit bourgeoisie”? Why do you avoid the term “middle class” when you talk about the Democratic base? And why are Black Democrats “ethnics” and Hispanic Republicans aren’t? ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 5:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/19 "2012-03-15T05:44:59Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > Obama may have won Dallas, Houston and San Antonio, but he didn’t even win Travis County, which includes Austin. Too bad you are wrong. [Obama won Travis County handily.](http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html) > [@bienville](#): > > Oooh, excellent point that I hadn’t thought of. > Wow, I thought Austin was the Bluest Texas there was. It actually isn’t an excellent point since it is, yet again, WRONG. Your initial instinct was correct. Travis county gave Obama the largest percentage of votes for any metro area in Texas - 64% of the vote. In Harris Co. Obama got 50.5%, Dallas Co. 57.5% and Bexar Co. 52.4%. Jefferson, Cameron, El Paso and Hidalgo Counties happen to be reasonably decent sized urban areas and Obama won those counties as well without much difficulty. The only major metro area McCain won was Tarrant Co. (Fort Worth). I doubt Obama will carry Texas, but it isn’t as red a state as most people think. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [March 15, 2012, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790/20 "2012-03-15T06:04:29Z")
To be thorough I should also mention there were several counties with sizable populations that went to McCain in Texas in 2008, namely Denton, Collin, Montgomery, Fort Bend and Galveston. Most of these are suburbs of either Dallas or Houston. Bell County is where Fort Hood is located and though it did go to McCain it was closer than you would think. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-perfect-storm-circumstances-could-make-individual-southern-states-go-blue/615790.md?page=2)