# What poll should I consider accurate? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [October 24, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403 "2008-10-24T18:17:23Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 17\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Jolly\_Roger](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/91b2a8/32.png) [@Jolly\_Roger](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jolly_Roger)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/1 "2008-10-24T18:17:23Z")
I’m wondering what poll webistes are the best to go to. I usually check CNN, RCP and the one on Yahoo, but they all have differning numbers. While all of them look pretty good for the dems I’m not sure which one is the most accurate. there must be a other polls that are. What polls pad the numbers and which ones are trustworthy? ---
**Author:** ![lee](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lee/32/7455_2.png) [@lee](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/lee)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/2 "2008-10-24T18:20:07Z")
[http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/) is a site which tries to take the bias out. ---
**Author:** ![Revtim](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/revtim/32/1042_2.png) [@Revtim](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Revtim)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/3 "2008-10-24T18:22:02Z")
[http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm](http://3bluedudes.com/ProjectDatabase.htm) is a list of sitea like [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) so one can see the overall trends. ---
**Author:** ![Magiver](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/4491bb/32.png) [@Magiver](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Magiver)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:24pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/4 "2008-10-24T18:24:22Z")
> [@Jolly\_Roger](#): > > I’m wondering what poll webistes are the best to go to. I usually check CNN, RCP and the one on Yahoo, but they all have differning numbers. While all of them look pretty good for the dems I’m not sure which one is the most accurate. there must be a other polls that are. What polls pad the numbers and which ones are trustworthy? You should trust a poll that shows it’s polling process and the breakout of the party affiliation of the people polled. Best of luck with that. ---
**Author:** ![Lamar\_Mundane](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/85f322/32.png) [@Lamar\_Mundane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lamar_Mundane)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/5 "2008-10-24T18:36:26Z")
> [@Magiver](#): > > You should trust a poll that shows it’s polling process and the breakout of the party affiliation of the people polled. > > Best of luck with that. They all provide that, but you have to pay to get access to that info. In short, you shouldn’t rely on any one poll. There is too much statistical noise. Your best bet is to follow the average of a bunch of polls, like [www.realclearpolitics.com](http://www.realclearpolitics.com) or a weighted system like [www.fivethirtyeight.com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com). ---
**Author:** ![IClaudius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c37758/32.png) [@IClaudius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IClaudius)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/6 "2008-10-24T18:39:23Z")
Don’t use any single poll, use tracking sites like fivethirtyeight as others have suggested. The reason 538 is arguably the best is that it actually weighs individual polls based on the pollster’s transparency, methodology, political bias, and accuracy. Pretty standard statistical regression other than that, but it gives you a much better idea. Nate Silver is a democrat, but he tells you clearly the justification for his weightings, and any exclusions or inclusions. The other aggregate poll sites not so much. ---
**Author:** ![ultrafilter](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/3d9bf3/32.png) [@ultrafilter](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultrafilter)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 7:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/7 "2008-10-24T19:33:11Z")
> [@Lamar\_Mundane](#): > > In short, you shouldn’t rely on any one poll. There is too much statistical noise. Your best bet is to follow the average of a bunch of polls, like [www.realclearpolitics.com](http://www.realclearpolitics.com) or a weighted system like [www.fivethirtyeight.com](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com). RCP isn’t transparent enough for me to trust them. That’s the really big deal about 538; not only are Nate’s methods arguably the best, but he’s open enough about them that we can verify that. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 7:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/8 "2008-10-24T19:39:00Z")
[electoral-vote.com](http://electoral-vote.com) seems good as well. He takes an average of all non-partisan polls in the last week or so\*. -FrL- \*Take the most recent nonpartisan poll. Call it P. Find the day in the middle of the days that P covered. Now take all nonpartisan polls whose middle day was within five days of P’s. Average the results of all these in with the results of P. Post. ---
**Author:** ![Doug\_Bowe](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/df788c/32.png) [@Doug\_Bowe](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Doug_Bowe)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 7:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/9 "2008-10-24T19:55:12Z")
In addition to following some of the excellent suggestions in this thread, here’s an additional thing to check out… FWIW I’m making an appointment to listen to the final hour of “Bob Brinker’s Moneytalk” on Sunday, Nov. 2 on ABC Radio. There’s a tradition that on the Sunday before a major election for Brinker to bring pollster John Zogby on the last hour and go over the rolling averages. Two years ago Zogby hit the exact numbers for the changes in the House and Senate. ---
**Author:** ![griffin1977](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/977dab/32.png) [@griffin1977](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/griffin1977)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 8:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/10 "2008-10-24T20:00:20Z")
A big difference between the results is how they judge a “Likely Voter” (there is less difference between the “Registered Voter” numbers of different polls than the “Likely Voter” numbers). As discussed at [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com): > [@](#): > > Note, however, that the likely voter models appear to segregate themselves into two clusters. In one cluster, there is a rather large, 4-6 point difference between registered and likely voter results. In the other cluster, there is essentially no difference. > > The first cluster coincides with Gallup’s so-called “traditional” likely voter model, which considers both a voter’s stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their “expanded” likely voter model, which considers solely the voter’s stated intentions. Note the philosophical difference between the two: in the “traditional” model, a voter can tell you that he’s registered, tell you that he’s certain to vote, tell you that he’s very engaged by the election, tell you that he knows where his polling place is, etc., and still be excluded from the model if he hasn’t voted in the past. The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the “expanded” model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself. > > Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous. Why? > > 1. Among people who have already voted, Democrats lead overwhelmingly. Zogby pegs Barack Obama’s advantage at 27 points among people who have already voted. The New York Times details how Democrats are overperforming, sometimes dramatically, in states where early voting is underway. (By the way, the New York Times’ data on Florida is wrong, as it includes absentee ballot requests as well as early voters. According to an Open Left diarist, Democrats have a 24-point advantage among those who have actually voted early in Florida). > > Pollsters ought to make certain that they’re asking people whether they’ve already voted. Moreover, they ought to be putting these early voters through their likely voter models as a sanity check. That is, they should be testing to see whether a substantial number of people who have actually voted would in fact have been excluded by their likely voter screens. If the answer to this question is yes, they ought to be asking themselves whether their likely voter models have any basis in reality. > > 1. Enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans. The latest Diageo/Hotline numbers show that 72 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate, as opposed to 55 percent of Republicans. > > 2. Most likely voter models are unlikely to distinguish newly registered voters from what I would call lapsed registered voters. If someone is registered, and has been registered for a long while, but has not cast a ballot since they pulled the lever for Ross Perot in 1992, there is good reason to be skeptical about their intentions. On the other hand, voters who are newly registered have quite literally demonstrated their interest in the 2008 campaign; they are in fact quite likely to vote. Barack Obama’s advantages are principally from among the newly-registered voter group. > > 3. There is an enormous discrepancy in the strength of the Republican and Democratic turnout operations. In past elections, such as 2004, this advantage favored the Republicans; in this one, it favors the Democrats. Barack Obama has somewhere between a 2:1 and a 4:1 advantage in field offices in most battleground states. He is relying almost exclusively on volunteers (the exception are a couple of cities like Philadelphia and Detroit, where Obama will most likely pay ‘street money’ to canvassers on Election Day). McCain, meanwhile, has already had to hire paid canvassers in Florida, and perhaps he will also in several other states. > > 4. Turnout among ‘unlikely’ voter blocks was substantially up during the Democratic primaries. Youth voters (18-29 year olds) increased their share of the Democratic electorate by 52 percent. Latino voters increased their share by 42 percent. Black voters increased their share by 8 percent. [http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html](http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/10/some-likely-voter-models-are-suspect.html) ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [October 24, 2008, 8:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/11 "2008-10-24T20:45:54Z")
I’m more than a little surprised to see that nobody has recommended [fivethirtyeight.com](http://fivethirtyeight.com) yet. You ought to check it out. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 2:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/12 "2008-10-26T02:38:47Z")
The poll on November 4 should accurately show who will be elected. ---
**Author:** ![Gorsnak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gorsnak/32/7587_2.png) [@Gorsnak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gorsnak)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 3:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/13 "2008-10-26T03:30:01Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > The poll on November 4 should accurately show who will be elected. Yeah right. You probably said that in 2000, too, and look at what happened. 😛 ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 3:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/14 "2008-10-26T03:42:22Z")
Last time somebody asked this question, someone posted a link to [Abulseme.com](http://Abulseme.com)’s Electoral Projection graph. I thought it was pretty cool although I’m not a statistician or anything. Scroll down and there’s an explanation for the graph and also a link to earlier discussion on the Dope about his methods. Aside from that, I owe Nate Silver my sanity during this long national nightmare of an election season. [http://wiki.abulsme.com/2008\_Electoral\_College\_Prediction](http://wiki.abulsme.com/2008_Electoral_College_Prediction) ---
**Author:** ![Mosier](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/7ea924/32.png) [@Mosier](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mosier)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/15 "2008-10-26T07:21:17Z")
Polls are worthless. Even if they’re accurate RIGHT NOW (which they’re not) they’re virtually guaranteed to differ from election results as some people change their minds, as a campaign makes a successful advertisement, as new info is released on candidate positions and backgrounds, as candidates get caught on camera making a goofy face, etc. etc. Polls don’t measure anything actually useful, except possibly for trend direction. Even then, polls can’t predict how long a trend will be sustained and how powerful the trend will be. ---
**Author:** ![Discordia](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/b9e5f3/32.png) [@Discordia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Discordia)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 8:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/16 "2008-10-26T08:39:51Z")
I’m sure John McCain will be pleased to know that it doesn’t matter that he’s 8 points down in the polls, since they’re worthless and all. The folks paying for the polls would be happy to know too, what a waste of money! ---
**Author:** ![IClaudius](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/c37758/32.png) [@IClaudius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/IClaudius)\ **Post date:** [October 26, 2008, 9:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-poll-should-i-consider-accurate/469403/17 "2008-10-26T09:07:13Z")
> [@Discordia](#): > > I’m sure John McCain will be pleased to know that it doesn’t matter that he’s 8 points down in the polls, since they’re worthless and all. > > The folks paying for the polls would be happy to know too, what a waste of money! Hehe, yeah exactly. It amazes me how many people simply don’t understand the validity of statistical sampling within a given confidence interval; that it is actually very accurate, reliable and predictive at measuring political preferences, of course, subject to all the usual caveats about methodology, survey question design, registration and intention controls and data sets. They just have this idea in their heads that all polling is equally inaccurate, or that because polling tests contemporaneous opinion, that it must be absolutely meaningless to the vote.