# What really happened at Roswell?
**URL:** https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659
**Category:** Great Debates
**Created:** [January 30, 2003, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659 "2003-01-30T17:25:39Z")
**Posts on this page:** 20
**Page:** 1
### Author:  [@minega](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/minega)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/1 "2003-01-30T17:25:39Z")
I have heard countless stories about Roswell. Some say it is the greatest evidence that aliens landed here while others denounce it as nothing but a hoax. What really happened at Roswell? Was there a coverup by the government or was it all nothing?
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### Author:  [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/2 "2003-01-30T17:30:56Z")
> [@](#):
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> a September 1994 Air Force report strongly supported the theory that the “UFO” debris found by rancher Mac Brazel in 1947 northwest of Roswell, New Mexico, was in fact a remnant of a balloon flight launched as part of a top-secret program called Project Mogul.
[http://www.csicop.org/si/9507/roswell.html](http://www.csicop.org/si/9507/roswell.html)
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### Author:  [@scr4](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scr4)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 5:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/3 "2003-01-30T17:30:57Z")
[This Skeptical Inquirer article](http://www.csicop.org/si/9507/roswell.html) says it was a top-secret balloon experiment called Project Mogul. I think I’m satisfied with this explanation.
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### Author:  [@Mehitabel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mehitabel)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/4 "2003-01-30T18:09:07Z")
Aw, you guys beat me to it!
Here’s an index of all the Skeptical Inquirer articles mentioning [Roswell.](http://www.csicop.org/cgi-bin/search/search.cgi?q=roswell)
I think what might happen is that we’ll get a generation of young people discovering ‘plots’ like this who won’t remember the Cold War and the weird shit that went on. Secrets like Project Mogul weren’t particularly sinister in that light.
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 10:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/5 "2003-01-30T22:36:56Z")
> [@](#):
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> \*Originally posted by minega \*
> \*\*What really happened at Roswell? \*\*
If you are asking a serious question, you need to start with Stanton Friedman. He might know more about this than anyone outside of the military. Do a quick Google. You’ll find him.
Our government has lied to us about Roswell. Perhaps they have a good reason for doing so. I don’t know. I just know I don’t like being lied to.
Take some time to review the eywitness testimony. As with many important stories of the past 60 years you have to weed out the disinformation and lies from the truth. It’s not always easy.
HTH
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### Author:  [@Mr.Miskatonic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr.Miskatonic)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 10:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/6 "2003-01-30T22:44:11Z")
> [@](#):
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> \*Originally posted by GOM \*
> \*\*If you are asking a serious question, you need to start with Stanton Friedman. He might know more about this than anyone outside of the military. Do a quick Google. You’ll find him.
>
> Our government has lied to us about Roswell. Perhaps they have a good reason for doing so. I don’t know. I just know I don’t like being lied to.
>
> Take some time to review the eywitness testimony. As with many important stories of the past 60 years you have to weed out the disinformation and lies from the truth. It’s not always easy.
>
> HTH \*\*
Espceially when there is plenty of money to be made with book son Roswell.
Nothing big happened at Roswell. The government didnt’ really hide anything and people have taken ordinary events to extremes to make it seem like something happened.
As someone once said: “A UFO made of sticks and foil? Oh my!”
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### Author:  [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 11:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/7 "2003-01-30T23:38:04Z")
One of the reasons I find the Project Mogul explanation plausible is that it was well worth covering up in 1947. Bear in mind that in 1947 the general concensus in the US government was that a Soviet nuclear weapon would be at least a decade away - and might never happen. For a monitoring project to be so far advanced, though prudent, was at least a sensitive topic. In the climate of the day, holding a press conference to say it was actually just a weather balloon seems a rather minor course of action. (Of course, when the USSR did test a weapon in 1949, the US had to reveal the existance of the rather different system they’d used to detect it, because it was Truman rather than Stalin who went public with the story.)
However, the single most important issue of timing that’s usually overlooked in discussion about Roswell is that early July 1947 was just **days** into the “flying saucer” craze, since the original Arnold sighting had been on June 24th. The automatic association of “flying saucer” with “alien spaceship” was still not a foregone conclusion. Nobody knew what they were even _meant_ to be. Thus when the local military issued a statement about having retrieved a crashed one, this had a completely different significance to what the same statement would have today (or through most of the second half of the 20th century). Crash enthusiasts have subsequently effectively projected their own obsession back onto an innocent, if obviously rash, statement.
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### Author:  [@Meatros](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Meatros)
#### Post date: [January 30, 2003, 11:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/8 "2003-01-30T23:48:03Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by minega \*
> \*\*I have heard countless stories about Roswell. Some say it is the greatest evidence that aliens landed here while others denounce it as nothing but a hoax. What really happened at Roswell? Was there a coverup by the government or was it all nothing? \*\*
Why is Roswell so highly touted? What about the incident in Great Britain-the one involving a military base and the forest-curse my spoiled memory!!
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 5:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/9 "2003-01-31T17:55:32Z")
> [@](#):
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> \*Originally posted by Meatros \*
> \*\*1. Why is Roswell so highly touted?
>
> 1. What about the incident in Great Britain-the one involving a military base and the forest-curse my spoiled memory!! \*\*
1. Dunno. I’m not psychic. Remember?
2. No bodies? Just a wild guess. 🙂 That would be Rendlesham. The BBC recently reported about this:
[BBC NEWS | UK | Politics | UFO case blocked by MoD](http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/uk_news/politics/2537115.stm)
One interesting comment in response to the article:
“Do we really think that the human race could deal with the fact that, out there is a far stronger, more intelligent life force than our own? I certainly don’t think so, just imagine the panic. It’s better we don’t know.”
Michael East, UK
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/10 "2003-01-31T18:33:49Z")
Here’s more. A nuclear physicist, in a field full of flakes and fakes, this guy is very impressive. Stan the Man:
[http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfhome.html](http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfhome.html)
Quote:
\*
Often referred to as the “Father of Roswell”, Stan was the first to investigate the incident beginning in 1978. He is the man who brought the story to the public’s attention, and out from under the Government’s lid of secrecy.
Stan has been investigating UFO incidents and reports since the mid 1950’s, and went to it full time in 1970. **In my opinion Stan is one of, if not THE most knowledgeable, respected, and credible people in all of Ufology.** \*
I agree. I don’t agree with every opinion he has, but he has done a lot of work in this field. Until you pay attention to what Mr. Friedman says, you have not done your homework.
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### Author:  [@Tars\_Tarkas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tars_Tarkas)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 6:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/11 "2003-01-31T18:53:51Z")
Everyone knows Roswell is where some Ferengi crashed…
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### Author:  [@Eve](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Eve)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/12 "2003-01-31T18:58:25Z")
[Demi Moore](http://us.imdb.com/Name?Moore,+Demi) was born there. If that’s not evidence of alien infiltration, I don’t know what is!
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### Author:  [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 7:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/13 "2003-01-31T19:58:34Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by GOM \*
> Stan has been investigating UFO incidents and reports since the mid 1950’s, and went to it full time in 1970. **In my opinion Stan is one of, if not THE most knowledgeable, respected, and credible people in all of Ufology.**
Not to sound mean, but “the most credible people in all of Ufology” is damning with faint praise. The fact that one guy says this does not make it true. (The praise comes from a guy named Glenn Danforth.)
The “Crash” at Roswell was a Project Mogul balloon craft. The evidence for it is so overwhelming that there is really no other reasonable conclusion. Anyone who says otherwise hasn’t taken an honest look at the issue. Mr. Friedman’s claims about Roswell are dishonest and are not supported by objective evidence. He continues to hold on to this nonsense because it’s his claim to fame, but really, the entire thing is absurd.
The REAL authority on “Ufology” is [Philip Klass.](http://www.csicop.org/klassfiles/SUN-30.html)
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### Author:  [@ceyjen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ceyjen)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 8:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/14 "2003-01-31T20:07:22Z")
Anyone ever been to Roswell and to the UFO museum?
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### Author:  [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)
#### Post date: [January 31, 2003, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/15 "2003-01-31T20:34:42Z")
What **RickJay** said.
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### Author:  [@Leap\_of\_Faith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leap_of_Faith)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2003, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/16 "2003-02-01T00:17:05Z")
To answer Ceyjen’s question, I live in Roswell (well, on a small ranch outside of Roswell) and I’ve been to the UFO museum once while showing out of town friends around. From living here for the past 7 years or so, my perspectives are: While I personally think the Project Mogul explanation is the most likely one, I am often impressed by the number of “true believers” I’ve encountered in all walks of life. I was suprised by the amount of information and the general organization of the UFO museum, it wasn’t nearly as cheesy as I expected. (at one time there were three UFO museums in Roswell, right now, as far as I know, only one is open on a regular basis. One of these museums showed as evidence some grainy video footage of what appears to be flying geese or ducks). I do believe that one of the reasons the Roswell incident is one of the best known is due to clever marketing. The UFO incident has benifitted the city in many ways, increasing tourism and creating markets for things such as Alien Ale. Without it, Roswell’s only claim to fame would be as the mozzerella cheese capital of the southwest. (and maybe the world).
As a side note, there is a group that opened up a coffee house and alien resistance headquarters that is based on the notion that the aliens actually have something to do with some not very nice half angel-half human creatures (or something like that, it’s been a while since I’ve read their literature) mentioned in the Bible.
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### Author:  [@bonzer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bonzer)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2003, 1:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/17 "2003-02-01T01:59:17Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by GOM \*
> A nuclear physicist, in a field full of flakes and fakes, this guy is very impressive. Stan the Man:
> [http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfhome.html](http://www.v-j-enterprises.com/sfhome.html)
I’ve very little interest in Stanton Friedman’s credentials as a nuclear physicist, but if you’re going to tout him as an expert, let’s look at his way with maths. Actually, I couldn’t find anything on this website that was particularly technical, but from the front page he links to ["]An engineer effectively demolishes the Air Force’s Project Mogul Hypothesis]([http://www.cufos.org/ros4.html](http://www.cufos.org/ros4.html)[/url) that has lots of numbers and stuff. So let’s have a gander at that.
The argument is even quite simple. Their input is Marcel’s statement about the debris field:
> [@](#):
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> Marcel described a _big_ field: debris “. . . about as far as you could see—three quarters [of a] mile long and two hundred to three hundred feet wide.” It was “scattered all over—just like you’d explode something above the ground and [it would] just fall to the ground.” The shortest pieces were “four or five inches. It was [as if it were from] something of some greater area that had been together.”
And the idea is to see how a crashed Projet Mogul balloon would compare to this description. Good question. Now there’s a lot of talk about parabolas and the like, but when you actually read the page it boils down to this passage:
> [@](#):
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> **Model accuracy.** Obviously we can’t validate the accuracy of the above finding. But a crude, indirect measure of the model’s simulation capability _can_ be defined: C—the overall debris coverage ratio. This parameter is equal to the total model-generated surface area of on-ground, thin-shell material fragments divided by the total field ground area. A reasonably accurate model will have a C value roughly similar to that which could (theoretically) be computed for the actual site.
>
> We can safely assume that the Foster ranch debris field consisted of mostly open range, with individual pieces or clusters of debris scattered over it. Since there had to be sufficient thin-shell material available to create at east one densely packed region as well as to define the perimeter of the vast area described by Marcel, a value of C between 0.01 and 0.10—i.e., between one to ten percent coverage—appears reasonable.
>
> The model’s debris coverage density is 6,880 ft2 ¸ 667,000 ft2 = 0.0103 (1.03% overall coverage)—at the lower end of the arbitrary acceptable range. Nearly _99% of the simulated field is debris-free or uncovered_, confirming the desired conservative nature of the model.
>
> **Summing up.** My mathematical analysis indicated better than a two order-of-magnitude disparity between the amount of thin-shell material on the ground (by all accounts—a lot) and what Mogul Flight 4 could have supplied (very little). This enormous difference provides a comfortable margin for error. For example, even if the model’s surface-area estimate is off (too high) by a factor of 10, it would _still_ require nearly 13 balloon trains (via 688 ft2 ¸ 54 ft2) or 39 targets to generate the shredded shell fragments found at the site.
>
> Still think that a single balloon train caused the Roswell debris?
Oddly enough, yes, I do. This analysis is fine as far as it goes, it just has _nothing to do with the version of Marcel’s description that he started from_. It’s essentially an estimate of the density of the debris in the field, using Marcel’s estimate of how big the field was. And then claiming that this is too low to be consistent with his description. But Marcel says _nothing_ about the density. He only describes the _extent_ of the debris field. And a 1% coverage of the ground by debris sounds a perfectly plausible, even high, density for a soldier judging things by eye to use in deciding the extent of the field.
Friedmann may be a nuclear physicist, but, if that’s his grasp of maths, I don’t want him near any reactor I’m in the vicinity of.
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2003, 2:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/18 "2003-02-01T02:21:33Z")
> [@](#):
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> \*Originally posted by Mr. Miskatonic \*
> \*\*Espceially when there is plenty of money to be made with book son Roswell.
>
> \*\*
Oh my! Someone wrote a book??? We must launch an investigation into this immediately. Surely an author cannot be considered a useful source of information!
hahaha
P.S. Sagan wrote books. I guess we should throw all his information in the trash too…
😉
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2003, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/19 "2003-02-01T02:30:04Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by bonzer \*
> \*\*I’ve very little interest in Stanton Friedman’s credentials as a nuclear physicist, \*\*
Okay. Some people find his opinions valuable since he has worked on classified projects, something most of us have not done.
His relationship to Roswell is that he has interviewed many of the eye witnesses. That’s what impressed me. He was willing to take the time to check out the situation and get the straight dope instead of just dismissing it while sitting at a computer keyboard.
HTH
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### Author:  [@GOM](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GOM)
#### Post date: [February 1, 2003, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-really-happened-at-roswell/151659/20 "2003-02-01T02:37:18Z")
> [@](#):
>
> \*Originally posted by bonzer \*
> \*\*One of the reasons I find the Project Mogul explanation plausible is that it was well worth covering up in 1947. \*\*
It \*\*could \*\*have been plausible, except the Air Force colonel who announced this explanation made the foolish mistake of attempting to explain the bodies also. That’s when it became obvious to many that we were, once again, not getting the straight dope from our military. They might have a good reason to lie to us, or they might believe they have good reason to lie to us, but I still don’t like it. That’s just me…
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