# What result on 4/26 would convince you that it's over for Bernie? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2016, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759 "2016-04-20T21:47:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/21 "2016-04-21T02:43:46Z")
It’s been “over” for Sanders since Nevada if you mean if he had any chance of winning. That said he should and will stay on the last primaries in California and elsewhere on early June. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/22 "2016-04-21T02:47:40Z")
> [@Dangerosa](#): > > Started switching their preference as Obama won both the popular vote and the pledged delegate counts. Which has nothing at all to do with the situation this year. Well it does to some degree as those who are not committed may start declaring for the clear pledged delegate and popular vote winner soon. It would be the rational response to [Weaver’s position](http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2016/04/19/sanders_campaigns_weaver_race_will_be_determined_by_superdelegates_not_pledged_delegates.html). > [@](#): > > KORNACKI: Because you know as well as I do, if June 7th comes and goes and Hillary Clinton has won the pledged delegate count and the primaries, and she has won the popular vote, there are going to be calls from her campaign and calls from a lot of influential delegates in this country for you the Sanders campaign to make a decision to unite around her. > > You’re saying instead of that, you will spend those months, those weeks in the summer trying to flip superdelegates to Bernie Sanders before the convention? > > WEAVER: At this point, yes, absolutely. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 3:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/23 "2016-04-21T03:13:12Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > He’s got a fork sticking out of him already. It’s done. > > But I’m still going to vote for him in the CA primary!! This is how he’ll run in CA. He’ll tell the voters there to send a message to Hillary and the Democratic party. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 3:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/24 "2016-04-21T03:27:37Z")
He can’t win the primary, but I’m going to assume he will do well on 4/26 since there are a lot of northeast states voting that day. To me victory is Bernie getting enough pledged delegates that he is seen as a serious contender to the democratic nomination. In another election cycle with a weaker lead candidate Bernie may have already won. The goal now is just to let the dem establishment know that they have a lot of voters who are not happy with the way things are going. Whether Bernie actually wins the primary or not is not the fulcrum that determines this. ---
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 7:21am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/25 "2016-04-21T07:21:26Z")
> [@Wesley\_Clark](#): > > He can’t win the primary, but I’m going to assume he will do well on 4/26 since there are a lot of northeast states voting that day. > > To me victory is Bernie getting enough pledged delegates that he is seen as a serious contender to the democratic nomination. In another election cycle with a weaker lead candidate Bernie may have already won. The goal now is just to let the dem establishment know that they have a lot of voters who are not happy with the way things are going. Whether Bernie actually wins the primary or not is not the fulcrum that determines this. In RI, that delegate powerhouse, maybe. The rest of the states are closed or hybrid primaries (though, granted, less restrictive than NY), and with far more diverse demographics. Bernie’s gonna get creamed. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 9:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/26 "2016-04-21T09:37:11Z")
Back on Feb. 28, we did a [poll predicting when Sanders would suspend his campaign](http://boards.straightdope.com/sdmb/showthread.php?t=785417). I guessed April 26. I’m still thinking that might not be far off the mark My post from that thread: “I went with April 26, not so much because of any particular primaries but because late April feels about right in terms of the Bernie “movement” more or less accomplishing whatever it is that it’s trying to accomplish.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 11:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/27 "2016-04-21T11:44:56Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I think it’s over for him now, but there’s still a few posters who think he can turn this thing around. He’s down by 237 pledged delegates and as a result needs to win the remaining contests by an average of around 17 points. I see a few contests coming up where he can meet or exceed that threshold, but not nearly enough. > > Five states have primaries on 4/26 (Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island) with 384 pledged delegates up for grabs. If you believe Sanders still has a chance, how many delegates does he need to win on 4/26 for you to keep believing? Is there a number of delegates won that would convince you that it’s over? I don’t think the delegates themselves are as important as people say they are. If Bernie cleans Hillary’s clock next Tuesday and then goes on a major winning streak that goes all the way to California, then Hillary will fall well short of the required pledged delegate total to win the election. That will probably be the case regardless of what happens on Tuesday. If Hillary can keep winning big states like NY, FL, OH, and produce another victory in PA and in MD, then Bernie’s chances are pretty much shot, even if he starts to show signs of life later. Bernie’s one path to victory is to show up at the convention with a major winning streak and a lead in the national polls in hand. If he can do that then there’s a good chance that the seeds of doubt get planted in at least some of the delegates’ minds. But as others have said, right now, that’s a big ‘if’, and the odds are not looking to good for that to happen. I think Bernie’s pretty much down to his last at-bat here. If he strikes out in PA and MD, then I don’t think he can make a credible case to the super delegates. But if he wins 4 of 5 (one of those necessarily being PA), then anything’s still possible. A question that lingers in my mind is what psychological impact did Sanders’ loss in NY have among Sanders possible voting base in Tuesday’s race? Do they become discouraged and find other ways to spend their time or do they continue to feel the Bern? ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/28 "2016-04-21T12:27:25Z")
Why should he suspend? Even if Clinton gets past the winning line, something might happen to Clinton and he’ll want to be right there to step in. She might be arrested. She might have a stroke. Anything. ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/29 "2016-04-21T12:32:21Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Was it over when the Germans bombed Pearl Harbor? No, no, that was the Jews. You can tell because they were shouting “Torah! Torah! Torah!” ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/30 "2016-04-21T12:35:14Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Why should he suspend? Even if Clinton gets past the winning line, something might happen to Clinton and he’ll want to be right there to step in. She might be arrested. She might have a stroke. Anything. She won’t get arrested and she looks pretty healthy. But accidents do happen, just ask Paul Wellstone. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/31 "2016-04-21T12:39:02Z")
> [@Lance\_Turbo](#): > > I think it’s over for him now, but there’s still a few posters who think he can turn this thing around. He’s down by 237 pledged delegates and as a result needs to win the remaining contests by an average of around 17 points. I see a few contests coming up where he can meet or exceed that threshold, but not nearly enough. Bernie winning anything by 17 points is a bit of a stretch. Now really, are these Democratic superdelegates, many of which have benefitted from Hillary’s fundraising, going to abandon a lifelong Democrat in favor of someone who until very recently did not call himself a Democrat? Not on your Nellie. The great Bernie surge is not going to happen. The game should be called by the mercy rule, TKO, whatever. Time to throw in the towel. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/32 "2016-04-21T12:42:22Z")
> [@John\_Mace](#): > > He’s got a fork sticking out of him already. It’s done. > > But I’m still going to vote for him in the CA primary!! I hope he stays in until the end so that anyone who wants to vote for him can. Even it it’s just as data points. When it’s all said and done, a statement will have been made about the level of unsatisfiededness (!) of the current state of the establishment. I voted for him without a belief that he would actually win Illinois. He got almost 49% of the vote compared to Clinton’s just over 50%. When he fails to win it all, still, it will be undeniable that he got lots and lots of votes. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 12:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/33 "2016-04-21T12:55:42Z")
Yeah, since I never thought this was about him actually winning, I’m not sure at what point he’ll be done. Honestly I don’t much care, either. I care much more about whether he’s able and willing to lead his supporters into a role as party activists. If he can do that, he’s going to make a permanent, borderline-revolutionary change in American politics. If he can’t or won’t, he’ll be a footnote in history along the lines of H. Ross Perot. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 1:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/34 "2016-04-21T13:50:58Z")
In the sense of achieving his original goals for his campaign, he’s already won. In the sense of winning the nomination (which was laughable when he announced), he’s already done. I think (and hope) he will continue running the race until the convention, just to balance out Hillary. If Trump is the nominee, there’s no concern about damaging her for the general. > [@TriPolar](#): > > It’s over, he knows it. He’s working on an exit strategy. He doesn’t have to concede, but he knows that Hillary will be increasing her lead and he won’t have a credible argument to take to the convention. He has to find the way to cash in on his achievement within the party now. After the election is over he’ll be persona non grata at the White House. I agree with your first two sentences, but the last two are incredible ungracious and needlessly combative. Bernie of all people has never been in politics to “cash in within the party.” It hasn’t even been his party for most of his career. The only possible interpretation that might make that statement true is if you mean “cash in” figuratively, as in he has proved that a significant number of Democratic voters agree with him on some core issues, giving him a little more weight in the Senate caucus. And that’s entirely proper. As far as being a “persona non grata” in the White House - well, that would be mighty petty of Clinton, especially after she was embraced by the Obama administration after a campaign that was at least as acrimonious as this one has been. In any case, it’s unlikely that Sanders gives a rat’s ass about what the White House thinks about him regardless of who sits there. ---
**Author:** ![Dangerosa](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/22d042/32.png) [@Dangerosa](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dangerosa)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 1:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/35 "2016-04-21T13:51:35Z")
> [@bobot](#): > > I hope he stays in until the end so that anyone who wants to vote for him can. Even it it’s just as data points. When it’s all said and done, a statement will have been made about the level of unsatisfiededness (!) of the current state of the establishment. I voted for him without a belief that he would actually win Illinois. He got almost 49% of the vote compared to Clinton’s just over 50%. > When he fails to win it all, still, it will be undeniable that he got lots and lots of votes. Al Gore got lots and lots of votes. More than George Bush. But he lost the election and getting lots and lots of votes didn’t moderate Bush. Clinton got lots and lots of votes against Obama eight years ago. She did have a major impact on policy - but she was also his Secretary of State. If the Progressive wing of the party wants to see changes within the establishment, they need to participate in making that change. They have to work to fill Congress and state legislatures - and city councils and school boards - with progressives. They can’t stay home like they did in 2010 or 2014. They can’t ignore their state legislatures. And if they can’t make change when it comes to filling city council seats with Progressives in liberal towns that aren’t as liberal as Portland or Boulder and putting more progressives into State Legislatures, they aren’t going to be successful on a national level. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/the_stainless_steel_rat/32/5727_2.png) [@The\_Stainless\_Steel\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Stainless_Steel_Rat)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 1:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/36 "2016-04-21T13:59:51Z")
If Hillary sweeps 26 April (or takes MD and PA by a NY-size margin), Bernie’s previous momentum will be stopped dead, and the four May primaries (Indiana, W. Virgina, Kentucky and Oregon) may not help much, either, without looking at poll data I’d favor Sanders in only Oregon right now. And those amount to 228 more votes. So if Hillary wins 26 April by, say 225-159 in terms of delegates, and then wins 3 of 4 states in May, leading to 135-93 in delegates, she’ll be very close (with the ‘super’ delegates") to the number she needs and will lead Sanders by nearly 400 delegates in the vote-won delegates. So yeah, unless there is some miracle out there next Tuesday, it’s over. ---
**Author:** ![Claverhouse](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/13edae/32.png) [@Claverhouse](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Claverhouse)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/37 "2016-04-21T14:07:30Z")
God, the hysteric haters of the Bern will be utterly unbearable when he’s defeated. The grave-dancing and shrill self-congratulation will awaken dogs in China. ---
**Author:** ![ISiddiqui](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/97f17d/32.png) [@ISiddiqui](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ISiddiqui)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/38 "2016-04-21T14:41:02Z")
Just deserts, I’d say. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/39 "2016-04-21T14:46:29Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > I agree with your first two sentences, but the last two are incredible ungracious and needlessly combative. Bernie of all people has never been in politics to “cash in within the party.” It hasn’t even been his party for most of his career. The only possible interpretation that might make that statement true is if you mean “\*\*cash in” figuratively, as in he has proved that a significant number of Democratic voters agree with him on some core issues, giving him a little more weight in the Senate caucus. \*\*And that’s entirely proper. That’s exactly how I meant it, but more than weight in the caucus because he needs to get public concessions from Hillary or he’ll have no effect on her administration because… > [@](#): > > As far as being a “persona non grata” in the White House - well, that would be mighty petty of Clinton, especially after she was embraced by the Obama administration after a campaign that was at least as acrimonious as this one has been. In any case, it’s unlikely that Sanders gives a rat’s ass about what the White House thinks about him regardless of who sits there. …once in office she’ll never follow through if she hasn’t made that public commitment. She’s changed her tone on the election trail, but she hasn’t changed her plans. And Bernie and everyone that backed him is now on her enemies list. The Clintons don’t make up and play nice with anyone who opposes them. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [April 21, 2016, 2:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/40 "2016-04-21T14:53:08Z")
> [@BrainGlutton](#): > > Sanders can’t “turn it around,” but neither is it “over” for him. He will stay in until the convention, using his bully-pulpit to push the Overton Window left. This does not end in July and it does not end in November and it does not end when HRC is inaugurated in January. Sanders will never be POTUS, but the next POTUS after Clinton will be more like him than her politically. That is the point of all this. Bernie’s message is one [del] the kids [/del]his followers will forget as soon as they start looking at the deductions on their first paychecks and seeing what government really costs. After that, they will be less interested in anything that increases their withholding. That’s personal economics 101. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759.md?page=3)