# What result on 4/26 would convince you that it's over for Bernie? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [April 20, 2016, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759 "2016-04-20T21:47:33Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Johnny\_Ace](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/6bbea6/32.png) [@Johnny\_Ace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Johnny_Ace)\ **Post date:** [April 23, 2016, 1:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/61 "2016-04-23T01:32:39Z")
Agree completely. ^ ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 8:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/62 "2016-04-24T20:40:31Z")
[One recent poll finally out of RI.](https://news.brown.edu/articles/2016/04/taubman-poll) Clinton +9. But 16% still undecided. And Sanders +20 among the “unaffiliated.” And in the 538 original prediction by just demographics if a nationally 50/50 race RI “should be” a Sanders +8. (Yes, I know RI is only 24 delegates and at current polling margin predictions Clinton could win PA by a margin bigger than _all_ of RI’s delegates … but it is the one Tuesday that at this point some “expect” him to win.) ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 8:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/63 "2016-04-24T20:46:47Z")
> [@DSeid](#): > > [One recent poll finally out of RI.](https://news.brown.edu/articles/2016/04/taubman-poll) Clinton +9. But 16% still undecided. And Sanders +20 among the “unaffiliated.” And in the 538 original prediction by just demographics if a nationally 50/50 race RI “should be” a Sanders +8. > > (Yes, I know RI is only 24 delegates and at current polling margin predictions Clinton could win PA by a margin bigger than _all_ of RI’s delegates … but it is the one Tuesday that at this point some “expect” him to win.) RI is a semi-closed primary. If you’re a registered independent you can vote in either but otherwise you have to be a registered Democrat to vote in the Democratic primary. I also have a hunch most of the independents who turn out will be doing so to vote for Trump. I could be wrong and Bernie did do very well in MA, but I think RI is going to be Clinton country. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 9:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/64 "2016-04-24T21:14:40Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I could be wrong and Bernie did do very well in MA, but I think RI is going to be Clinton country. Bernie is running very strong here. However, the independents voting for Trump, and a low turnout among Democrats now that the writing is on the wall may put Hillary over the edge. However, the Clintons aren’t all that well like here, and it’s a strong union state, and polling shows Bernie ahead. If he doesn’t win it’s because there’s no point to voting for him anymore. RI is a Motor Voter state, so almost everyone likely to ever vote is registered. There may be ID problems since our legislators are idiots, but a driver’s license is all you need. There could be problems because of a reduction in polling places, but even if the one you usually go to is closed the right one isn’t very far away. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/65 "2016-04-24T21:51:36Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > RI is a Motor Voter state, so almost everyone likely to ever vote is registered. There may be ID problems since our legislators are idiots, but a driver’s license is all you need. There could be problems because of a reduction in polling places, but even if the one you usually go to is closed the right one isn’t very far away. I’m pretty sure a state ID works just as well as a driver’s license. Frankly, I really doubt the ID requirement would prevent too many people from voting, or at least too many of the type of poor people that Republicans wouldn’t want voting. If you depend on getting some sort of government help be it SS, SSI, food stamps, welfare, or living in subsidized housing, you need to be able to produce ID so I’m pretty sure they’ll all have it. As for the idea that the majority of independents who choose to vote will be going to Trump, that’s speculation on my heart, but RI is heavily Catholic(IIRC the most Catholic state in the country other than New Mexico) and Trump does really well in areas that are heavily Catholic(at least non-Hispanic Catholics), and full of angry working-class whites. I’m pretty sure RI is going to be the second state Trump wins an outright majority in. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 10:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/66 "2016-04-24T22:20:06Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > As for the idea that the majority of independents who choose to vote will be going to Trump, that’s speculation on my heart, but RI is heavily Catholic(IIRC the most Catholic state in the country other than New Mexico) and Trump does really well in areas that are heavily Catholic(at least non-Hispanic Catholics), and full of angry working-class whites. I’m pretty sure RI is going to be the second state Trump wins an outright majority in. There’s no big Catholic factor, most RI Catholics aren’t practicing, don’t care. Churches are closing down. It Trump surges here it’s because of the economy and the lack of jobs. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 10:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/67 "2016-04-24T22:39:38Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > … polling shows Bernie ahead. … Which polling shows that? Again the only one on RCP is the one I linked to and, surprisnigly, showed Clinton up. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 24, 2016, 10:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/68 "2016-04-24T22:46:21Z")
I haven’t seen anything for at least a week so you may be right that she’s leading right now. This is a heavily Democrat state, the political leadership has been locked in on Hillary for a while, but the electorate has an independent mind. It’s going to be interesting, but the results either way are not significant, the Democratic race is over. Bernie was here this afternoon, the snippets I heard of his speech sounded much more like messaging than competition. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/69 "2016-04-25T00:04:02Z")
If Sanders has made that transition then indeed it is of no significance whatsoever. My impression had been that he has not yet done so and was still in the mode of minimally not discouraging the booing of Clinton’s name at his rallies. If the latter is true then being swept, along with an overall double digit loss in available delegates Tuesday, inclusive of a not closed primary in a state that demographically favors him, would help speed that transition happening even more than a 4 state loss would I’d think. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 12:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/70 "2016-04-25T00:53:01Z")
I think it’s finally over after Tuesday. I thought Bernie would recover from the loss in New York, but the sense I get is that whatever surge in interest that voters may have had has pretty much flat-lined, and perhaps even declined. I think that there is now finally, after months of going back and forth, a growing sense of the inevitability factor begging to settle in. It’s also possible that people have taken in more moderate states have watched and listened to Bernie and decided that he’s becoming a human tape recorder: _“We have a rigged economy. Banks own Washington. Clinton takes bank money. Vote for me. We have a rigged economy. Banks own Washington. Clinton takes…”_ Anyway, I think that Sanders might take RI, but Maryland’s looking bad. PA, the must-win state, isn’t looking too good right now. Sanders needs to win four out of five, including PA. He might lose 4 of 5, including PA. That would effectively be the end of Sanders the candidate. It’s what he does next that becomes interesting. I think Clinton agrees to incorporate some of his platform in some form, but she doesn’t have to have the most fanatical of Bernie’s base. ---
**Author:** ![Jophiel](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jophiel/32/66_2.png) [@Jophiel](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jophiel)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/71 "2016-04-25T12:51:16Z")
PPP has Clinton -4 in RI, 45-49 Same poll has her +2 in CT and +10 in PA. Of course, winning RI or even RI & CT doesn’t mean much when you lose PA and MD by double digits, or close to it. ---
**Author:** ![That\_Don\_Guy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/that_don_guy/32/538_2.png) [@That\_Don\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/That_Don_Guy)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 4:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/72 "2016-04-25T16:45:04Z")
My answer to the original question: the same result that would have convinced me on 4/19 - none. Even if it’s a reasonably major Clinton win in California on 6/7, Sanders has enough delegates in the bank that it makes no sense to withdraw. Besides, with a show of support, he just might be able to convince Clinton to enact at least part of his platform. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 5:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/73 "2016-04-25T17:07:28Z")
> [@That\_Don\_Guy](#): > > My answer to the original question: the same result that would have convinced me on 4/19 - none. Even if it’s a reasonably major Clinton win in California on 6/7, Sanders has enough delegates in the bank that it makes no sense to withdraw. Besides, with a show of support, he just might be able to convince Clinton to enact at least part of his platform. I take “it’s over” to mean the writing is on the wall, not that Bernie will withdraw or give up. Anything can happen, but only extraordinary events would lead to his victory in pledged delegates. He won’t convince Hillary to enact any part of his platform that she hasn’t already considered based on public reaction. Even if she promises to do so it’s just campaign BS. She’s already made her deals and her plans. Bernie can use what he’s gained to influence the electorate and affect the party platform and rules. The party platform is might as well be written in disappearing ink but it will look like a victory to his supporters. Rule changes are just as pointless, after this primary season the Democrats won’t give up super delegates, we’ll probably see the GOP adopt them, but it’s another way to throw a bone to Bernie’s supporters. Bernie will be the guy remembered as coming from nowhere and in less than a year almost knocked over the establishment candidate who spent at least a decade campaigning for the nomination. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 6:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/74 "2016-04-25T18:05:40Z")
> [@Claverhouse](#): > > God, the hysteric haters of the Bern will be utterly unbearable when he’s defeated. > The grave-dancing and shrill self-congratulation will awaken dogs in China. Wow! That’s some Heavy duty projection you got going there. The emotional investment of the Clinton haters is an order of magnitude stronger than that of the “haters of Bern”. When he is eventually defeated most will say, something along the lines of “Well that’s done with, now lets concentrate on the general election”. Mostly what I hear from the pro-Clinton side regarding Sanders is that while they approve of some of his ideas they trust Hillary more in terms of getting things done. Compare that with > [@TriPolar](#): > > …once in office she’ll never follow through if she hasn’t made that public commitment. She’s changed her tone on the election trail, but she hasn’t changed her plans. And Bernie and everyone that backed him is now on her enemies list. The Clintons don’t make up and play nice with anyone who opposes them. and > [@Claverhouse](#): > > So it’s his _duty_ to abandon his race and try and get his wretched opponent elected ? In return for unwritten backroom promises ? Left-wing promises that go against every fibre of her being ? > > The worrying thing is that once in power, the nearest left opposition will be the Trumpites. The DNC will scatter the progressives and the sandernistas and rely on their own minorities and the moderate Republicans to bring in Free Trade Everything and Austerity for all. Nearly all. Unlike Bernie, Clinton never said that her opponent was [unqualified for office](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/fact-checker/wp/2016/04/07/sanderss-incorrect-claim-that-clinton-called-him-not-qualified-for-the-presidency/), and if Bernie were to win the primary, most would line up behind him as the obvious choice over whomever the Republican’s end up with. As compared to the Bernites who seem to be content to see the Country go down in flames rather than vote for the woman who defeated their golden boy. ---
**Author:** ![Buck\_Godot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/buck_godot/32/6573_2.png) [@Buck\_Godot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Buck_Godot)\ **Post date:** [April 25, 2016, 6:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/75 "2016-04-25T18:22:02Z")
> [@Skammer](#): > > In the sense of achieving his original goals for his campaign, he’s already won. In the sense of winning the nomination (which was laughable when he announced), he’s already done. I think (and hope) he will continue running the race until the convention, just to balance out Hillary. If Trump is the nominee, there’s no concern about damaging her for the general. I agree. It is interesting watching how the rhetoric progressed over time as the goals of the Sanders campaign shifted. At the start when it was assumed that Clinton would win by a land slide, both candidates were tripping over themselves to be cordial (“tired of the Clinton Emails”) and just concentrated on the issues. However once Sanders started exceeding expectations and looked like he might actually win, the kid gloves came off on both sides as the real contest began. I’m hoping that now that Sander’s chances have slimmed, both campaigns will go back to attempting to promote their ideas, and back off on bringing down their opponent. If that were the case than I’d be happy for Sanders to hold on until the convention. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2016, 9:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/76 "2016-04-26T21:36:56Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > There’s no big Catholic factor, most RI Catholics aren’t practicing, don’t care. Churches are closing down. It Trump surges here it’s because of the economy and the lack of jobs. I’m not talking about theology, I’m talking about ethnicity. White Catholics, for a variety of reasons, generally vote for Trump. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [April 26, 2016, 9:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/77 "2016-04-26T21:51:51Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > I’m not talking about theology, I’m talking about ethnicity. White Catholics, for a variety of reasons, generally vote for Trump. I see what you mean. I don’t like this kind of ethnic dissection but I’ll point out that the there are a lot of Hispanic and Portuguese Catholics in RI, so it’s no so heavily a ‘White Catholic’ state as you may think. I don’t think it really matters because Ted Cruz is not very palatable here because of his politics so he’s not picking up much aside from the anti-Trump vote. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2016, 12:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/78 "2016-04-27T00:20:48Z")
I’m still seeing a lot online about how there was fraud in New York and witnessed pro Hillary fraud in Chicago, so I’m going to say that the answer for many will be “never.” ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2016, 2:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/79 "2016-04-27T02:42:40Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > I’m still seeing a lot online about how there was fraud in New York and witnessed pro Hillary fraud in Chicago, so I’m going to say that the answer for many will be “never.” Only the most radical of Bernie Bros will see it that way. Well-adjusted will see it as the more popular candidate winning. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [April 27, 2016, 2:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759/80 "2016-04-27T02:43:41Z")
It’s official: Clinton is the nominee. Game over for Sanders. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-result-on-4-26-would-convince-you-that-its-over-for-bernie/752759.md?page=5)