# What’s going to be a problem in 25 years, but people are choosing to ignore now? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 6, 2023, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356 "2023-02-06T01:00:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/41 "2023-02-06T17:01:14Z")
> [@SlipperyPete](#): > > I would say it’s the “Idiocracy” problem. I see it as a race between Idiocracy and the Singularity. Will AI become sufficiently functional to keep things going before people become sufficiently dysfunctional as to cause a collapse? ---
**Author:** ![Mijin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mijin/32/9369_2.png) [@Mijin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mijin)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/42 "2023-02-06T17:15:45Z")
> [@SlipperyPete](#): > > I would say it’s the “Idiocracy” problem. As birthrates overall are in decline, the highly intelligent, more educated upper class will have less offspring and the lower class, less educated will continue having large families. Eventually you get a dumber society, and less people who can fulfill the needs of a highly technical workforce. I think this would have to be established to be true first. Yes people born into poor families generally go to worse schools and perform worse, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have lower intellectual capability. It’s certainly comforting for some people to believe that. I grew up in a single-parent family, on a council estate, and went to one of the worst-performing schools in the whole UK. But I also spent one month going to one of the very best private-schools (I was in the running for a scholarship place, and I didn’t get it). I can’t begin to describe the differences between the educational environments. (And FTR I don’t blame the teachers. Other factors are far more important, and there are a number of vicious and virtuous circles at play). Anyway 25 years is a very short time in the context of this alledged problem. ---
**Author:** ![SlipperyPete](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ba9def/32.png) [@SlipperyPete](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SlipperyPete)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/43 "2023-02-06T17:27:17Z")
> Anyway 25 years is a very short time in the context of this alledged problem. Yeah you might be right about that, but I think we are going to have a similar problem when Gen Z is the majority of the workforce. My kids tell me about 40% of their fellow students are complete social recluses who won’t respond to anything anyone says, except to possibly make animal noises or grunts. There were a couple kids like that when I was in school, but nowhere near 40%, more like 1%. Another problem we will run into shortly is a shortage of the raw materials to make batteries. These laws about making all new vehicles EV’s by 2030 are never going to work, not in that timeframe. 2050 maybe, and that’s assuming we continue to find more sources of lihium/nickel/cobalt. Another problem coming up, possibly longer term than 25 years, is declining fertility in men. No one is quite sure of the root cause here, but some decent guesses include constant exposure to plastics, or possibly beef hormones in our meat and dairy. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 5:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/44 "2023-02-06T17:54:21Z")
Pandemic kids. How emotionally screwed up will they be as adults? ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 7:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/45 "2023-02-06T19:13:14Z")
Why would you think that will screw up kids? ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 7:31pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/46 "2023-02-06T19:31:39Z")
Many missed out on two of the most formative years in peer socialization. If I had to stay home for two years of adolescence, I would have come out a completely different person and probably not for the better. ---
**Author:** ![Lucas\_Jackson](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lucas_jackson/32/303_2.png) [@Lucas\_Jackson](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lucas_Jackson)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 7:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/47 "2023-02-06T19:37:58Z")
No more so than the almost 2 million homeschooled kids. Plus they have the internet to stay current. That along with text and Facetime, not sure that will have that big of an impact. Kids are pretty resilient. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 7:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/48 "2023-02-06T19:43:09Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > No more so than the almost 2 million homeschooled kids. Nor all the generation that lived with smallpox and high infant mortality and wars and… I mean, it does screw people up, but it’s also a pretty normal human condition. ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 8:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/49 "2023-02-06T20:32:39Z")
> [@Lucas\_Jackson](#): > > No more so than the almost 2 million homeschooled kids But most homeschoolers still have the opportunity to socialize with their peer group. Those who aren’t allowed that _are_ often screwed up and may even be considered victims of child abuse. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 8:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/50 "2023-02-06T20:41:16Z")
> [@SlipperyPete](#): > > Another problem coming up, possibly longer term than 25 years, is declining fertility in men. No one is quite sure of the root cause here, but some decent guesses include constant exposure to plastics, or possibly beef hormones in our meat and dairy. If indeed this is an actual problem. The jury is still out, sorta. Prof. Allan Pacey, Professor of Andrology, University of Sheffield: > Whilst an apparent 52.4% decline in sperm counts may sound a lot, but from the data provided in this paper it represents an average change from ‘normal’ (99 million sperm per ml) to ‘normal’ (47 million sperm per ml). As such, I would urge journalists and editors to treat this study with caution as the debate has not yet been resolved and there is clearly much work still to be done Prof. Richard Sharpe, Honorary Professor, MRC Centre for Reproductive Health, University of Edinburgh: > What is not so widely appreciated is that the coincidence of this change in men with delay in couples trying for a baby until the female partner is in her 30’s (when her fertility is declining progressively), creates a double whammy for couple fertility in modern Western societies. As usual, it’s complicated (I’m linking to all quotes at the end of the post). This issue has surfaced since at least the 90’s and there’s been speculation about different causes. For almost all this time, many, maybe a majority (?) of researchers dismissed the claim of increasing male infertility. Prof. Allan Pacey again: > I have never truly been convinced that the purported decline in sperm counts is anything more than a laboratory artefact and I have written as much in my 2013 article “Are sperm counts declining? Or did we just change our spectacles?” (See [Are sperm counts declining? Or did we just change our spectacles? - PMC](https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3739163/)) However, a meta-study published in 2017 did indicate that male infertility is increasing. I’m linking to a site that has collected comments from some specialists in the field. The latest study seems to indicate that something is indeed going on, but again, one more time, Alan Pacey: > Ideally, we would have funded large prospective epidemiological studies of healthy males 25 years ago and this would by now have given us a clear answer one way or the other. Unfortunately, it seems as though we might have to wait another 25 years before we might get to know the real answer [https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-meta-analysis-of-sperm-count-among-men-in-western-countries/](https://www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-meta-analysis-of-sperm-count-among-men-in-western-countries/) ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [February 6, 2023, 11:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/51 "2023-02-06T23:29:14Z")
> [@engineer\_comp\_geek](#): > > > [@Crafter\_Man](#): > > > > The interest on our national debt is not based on belief. It’s a real thing, and must be paid. > > True, but we print money. We can literally just print enough money to cover the debt and call it day. The only reason we don’t do that is that it would seriously devalue our currency. > > There was serious talk several years ago about minting a trillion dollar coin and shoving it in Fort Knox or someplace safe, just so that they could use it to effectively raise the debt ceiling. > > There are some very weird things that happen when your money has value solely because everyone believes that it has value. Maybe we should convert all our debt to cryptcurrency? Then it would be worth almost nothing! ---
**Author:** ![GESancMan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gesancman/32/2923_2.png) [@GESancMan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GESancMan)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 12:31am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/52 "2023-02-07T00:31:22Z")
> [@msmith537](#): > > Maybe we should convert all our debt to cryptcurrency? Then it would be worth almost nothing! That would be a grave mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Bootb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/e19b73/32.png) [@Bootb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bootb)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 12:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/53 "2023-02-07T00:39:57Z")
> [@Ethilrist](#): > > How about the helium shortage? We’re running out, it’s critical to a whole lot of high-end stuff, but people gotta have their mylar balloons for the office party. With a few basic precautions in place, we could go back to using hydrogen for balloons. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 1:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/54 "2023-02-07T01:29:48Z")
And so has the interest on the debt as a fraction of GDP been growing, shrinking, or staying basically steady over the years? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/55 "2023-02-07T01:39:49Z")
> [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > Another one. People are freaking out about AI. Nobody seems too concerned about robots and automation. When the blue collar jobs vanished it was lamented as part of progress. We’ll see how the white collar class reacts when their jobs are gone. The largest cost for almost all employers is staff. If something can be automated, it will be. OK, so if most jobs can be done by machines, wouldn’t that be a very good thing? If (for instance) 80% of the work being done now can be automated, then shouldn’t we reach a point where we all be able to work 20% as much as we do now and still live as well? Seriously, the only reason this should be regarded as a problem is our weird way of looking at things, that a ‘job’ will continue to be defined as at least 40 hours per week, so the number of jobs and employed persons will shrink, and if you don’t have a job, you’ll be destitute. If we as a society can’t adapt to what should be a life of leisure for all, we deserve whatever messed-up sort of society we become. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/56 "2023-02-07T01:49:52Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > OK, so if most jobs can be done by machines, wouldn’t that be a very good thing? > > If (for instance) 80% of the work being done now can be automated, then shouldn’t we reach a point where we all be able to work 20% as much as we do now and still live as well? More likely, we would work a little less than we do now, and the gross national product would be at least several times higher than it is now. So I agree with you on automation not being a problem (except for the short to medium term worker displacement ), but maybe for different reasons. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 2:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/57 "2023-02-07T02:08:46Z")
Most likely the 0.1% rich will buy the robots, reap 99.9+% of the rewards, and turn everyone else into denizens of squatters’ camps on the outskirts of walled cities. When you personally have no capital or land and your labor is economically valueless, you’ll be a beggar unless somebody else decides to support you. Everything we know about human nature, and especially the human nature of the kind of people who end up as the 0.1%, is that they’ll see no reason to do that supporting. So beg you will. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 2:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/58 "2023-02-07T02:59:05Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > Most likely the 0.1% rich will buy the robots, reap 99.9+% of the rewards, and turn everyone else into denizens of squatters’ camps on the outskirts of walled cities. Well, if this is the situation in 2048, you can look back on this thread and realize you were a true prophet. I’m having a hard time seeing why early automation coincided with city walls falling into decay, while this new round will result in their revival. Or is this a metaphor? ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/59 "2023-02-07T03:09:22Z")
What about offensive military operations becoming more likely because of attacking troops all sitting safely behind computer screens thousands of miles away? I had been hoping war would be less likely because when one child families come to predominate, parents will insist their children be safe. But the Russo-Ukrainian War, fought between countries with unusually low fertility, is putting that hope in severe doubt. ---
**Author:** ![Ssounder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d07c76/32.png) [@Ssounder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ssounder)\ **Post date:** [February 7, 2023, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/60 "2023-02-07T03:18:27Z")
Humanity only has one rock to live on, Unfortunately, Homo Sapiens have been a warring species since before there was written word. And it continues today. If we don’t find common ground between nations, we can never solve the many issues in the posts above. Right now, it’s us vs them. Many people hate the thought of “One World Order” but we need to have some parts of it for our long term survival on this planet. -As for the Billionaires that think they can escape the eventual collapse of society in their spaceships; -I say f-em. They might have made a difference for humanity with their money and influence but chose to invest in a way out. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=4)