# What’s going to be a problem in 25 years, but people are choosing to ignore now? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 6, 2023, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356 "2023-02-06T01:00:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 5:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/101 "2023-02-09T05:01:42Z")
Lumpy coming in here with _solutions!_ Jokes aside, yeah, they likely would. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 8:15am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/102 "2023-02-09T08:15:04Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > > [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > > > Having read SF for 50 years, I’ve always thought we’d have a base on the moon in my lifetime and that there was a possibility, not only for manned Mars missions, but actual tangible plans to at least set up a base there. > > I don’t know how old you are, but I am 59 and still expect to see a moonbase in my lifetime, and a real chance to see at least a human on Mars. A colony on Mars? Not a chance. But we should have a permanent presense on the Moon in 10-15 years, and maybe sooner. Space hotels, too. There’s even an outside chance some of us will make it into space. 1. It’s possible that you are right, at least about a moon base and a human on Mars. I’ll be too old to partake, but I’ll be cheering from down here. Sadly, we have stalled about 50 years, at least regarding Luna. ---
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 12:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/103 "2023-02-09T12:39:58Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > > [@RickJay](#): > > > > In 20 years, China will be so demographically old their economy will have long cratered. > > You don’t suppose that a country that used totalitarian measures to enforce radical birth control might use totalitarian measures to enforce radical elder control? Like for example having the mean survival time in care homes be about 18 months? Commentators far more expert than I have suggesting in plain language that China’s recent Big Bang transition from zero-COVID to maximum-COVID is motivated at least in part for exactly that reason. They might not have planned it that way from the git-go back in 2020. But they’re now recognizing a “virtue” (if you can call slaughtering elders a “virtue”) in the situation they find themselves in. A disease that preferentially attacks the rural, the ill-educated, and the elderly (who are oh-by-the-way also politically irrelevant) is manna for their demographics. Not as nice as an enduring fountain of millions of fresh new ethnic-Han babies, but it’ll do in the pinch they find themselves in. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 1:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/104 "2023-02-09T13:49:05Z")
> [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > > [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > > > > [@Charlie\_Tan](#): > > > > > > Having read SF for 50 years, I’ve always thought we’d have a base on the moon in my lifetime and that there was a possibility, not only for manned Mars missions, but actual tangible plans to at least set up a base there. > > > > I don’t know how old you are, but I am 59 and still expect to see a moonbase in my lifetime, and a real chance to see at least a human on Mars. A colony on Mars? Not a chance. But we should have a permanent presense on the Moon in 10-15 years, and maybe sooner. Space hotels, too. There’s even an outside chance some of us will make it into space. > > 1. > > It’s possible that you are right, at least about a moon base and a human on Mars. I’ll be too old to partake, but I’ll be cheering from down here. Sadly, we have stalled about 50 years, at least regarding Luna. I’m around the same age, and doubt I’ll see any of this. Building and maintaining even a skeletal, minimally staffed moonbase would be phenomenally expensive, and what compelling need would it fulfill? Unmanned missions have reaped a scientific bonanza at a fraction of the cost of manned missions, and barring unprecedented technological breakthroughs should be the model for the foreseeable future. ---
**Author:** ![Railer13](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/railer13/32/9742_2.png) [@Railer13](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Railer13)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 2:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/105 "2023-02-09T14:51:22Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > But we should have a permanent presense on the Moon in 10-15 years, and maybe sooner. I’m not sure what you mean by a permanent presence, but a place where people can live indefinitely on the moon is not going to happen within 15 years. This article from Smithsonian talks about a base where astronauts might be able to stay for a couple of months before having to return to earth. ISTM that a ‘base camp’ of this sort would be akin to our presence in Antarctica, where the only way that people can survive is to have supplies replenished on a regular basis. Yes, these are ‘permanent’ settlements, but nobody actually lives there permanently. The article suggest that a lunar base camp won’t become a reality until at least 2034. > **[Four Things We’ve Learned About NASA’s Planned Base Camp on the Moon](https://www.smithsonianmag.com/science-nature/four-things-weve-learned-about-nasas-planned-base-camp-on-the-moon-180980589/)** > > Eventually the station will allow astronauts to spend up to two months on the lunar surface ---
**Author:** ![Cervaise](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cervaise/32/16693_2.png) [@Cervaise](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cervaise)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 3:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/106 "2023-02-09T15:46:50Z")
> [@Railer13](#): > > Yes, these are ‘permanent’ settlements, but nobody actually lives there permanently. So, a NoAirBNB. 😉 ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/107 "2023-02-09T16:40:12Z")
Not sure what problem we might be having in 25+ years that a moon or Mars base solves. Elton John was right, Mars is no place to raise your kids, in fact it’s cold as hell. And the moon is even colder. What’s the best case for a colony on another planet, or even a generation ship to another star system? A few thousand people at most escape whatever happens to Earth, and the human race continues somewhere else, whether or not it survives here. If I’m one of the eight billion people still here on Earth, what good does that do me? None. For us, there is no Planet B, as the saying goes. And the most likely scenario for the handful of escapees and their descendants is, [in the words of Modest Mouse](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=he16ctlqAgU), “find another planet, make the same mistakes.” If we can’t make a go of this once very hospitable planet, why should we inflict ourselves on new worlds? Nuts to that. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 4:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/108 "2023-02-09T16:54:07Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > If I’m one of the eight billion people still here on Earth, what good does that do me? None. And in a hundred years, none of the 8 billion humans now alive will be alive, so what good does the human population of the Earth of a hundred years from now do for you? At some point, continuation of the species is all any of us have. I don’t see where _the location_ of the species should matter in that. ---
**Author:** ![Lumpy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lumpy/32/446_2.png) [@Lumpy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lumpy)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 5:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/109 "2023-02-09T17:04:53Z")
> [@Akaj](#): > > Building and maintaining even a skeletal, minimally staffed moonbase would be phenomenally expensive, and what compelling need would it fulfill? That may change if SpaceX’s Starship meets its cost and reliability goals. Apollo was just about the most expensive way to go to the Moon imaginable. ---
**Author:** ![Akaj](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/akaj/32/145_2.png) [@Akaj](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Akaj)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/110 "2023-02-09T17:26:05Z")
Well sure, getting people and stuff to the moon may be accomplished more cheaply, but building and maintaining a base suitable for human habitation will still be a fabulously complex and expensive endeavor. The slightest errors or malfunctions could kill the inhabitants. And for what conceivable reason? ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 6:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/111 "2023-02-09T18:56:44Z")
> [@Horatius](#): > > And in a hundred years, none of the 8 billion humans now alive will be alive, so what good does the human population of the Earth of a hundred years from now do for you? OK, if I’m one of the eight billion people left here on an increasingly inhospitable Earth _when the few thousand lucky (we assume) escapees move to Mars or wherever?_ I’m talking about ‘I’ in the general sense, not me, the guy typing this right now. > At some point, continuation of the species is all any of us have. I don’t see where _the location_ of the species should matter in that. Why should I (again, in the general sense) care about the survival of the species if my children and grandchildren aren’t going to be part of that, nor are the children and grandchildren of anyone I know? Why should I feel any attachment to the survival of a handful of privileged characters who were able to squeeze into the lifeboat while the rest of us are left on a sinking ship? Why should I feel anything other than 'fuck ‘em’? Oh, the _species_ will survive. So what? ---
**Author:** ![Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/elmer_j.fudd/32/1211_2.png) [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elmer_J.Fudd)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 6:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/112 "2023-02-09T18:58:47Z")
We have a long way to go before finding, traveling to, terraforming, and settling a hospitable planet is easier than just fixing the one we’re on. ---
**Author:** ![RickJay](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/bb73d2/32.png) [@RickJay](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickJay)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 7:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/113 "2023-02-09T19:02:29Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > So, a NoAirBNB. They’d fuck you on the cleaning fees, anyway. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 8:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/114 "2023-02-09T20:42:17Z")
> [@Elmer\_J.Fudd](#): > > We have a long way to go before finding, traveling to, terraforming, and settling a hospitable planet is easier than just fixing the one we’re on. Truth. And yet the idea of colonizing another planet seems to be, in many people’s minds, an excuse for **not** fixing this one. ---
**Author:** ![TheTooth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/919ad9/32.png) [@TheTooth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheTooth)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 11:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/115 "2023-02-09T23:28:20Z")
> [@Cervaise](#): > > So, a NoAirBNB. 😉 “Fantastic food but no atmosphere. Three stars” ---
**Author:** ![Dr\_Paprika](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dr_paprika/32/3042_2.png) [@Dr\_Paprika](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr_Paprika)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 11:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/116 "2023-02-09T23:45:54Z")
The short-sighted (alleged) failure of students to learn cursive will completely gut the calligraphy industry. ---
**Author:** ![Dr.Drake](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ad7895/32.png) [@Dr.Drake](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dr.Drake)\ **Post date:** [February 9, 2023, 11:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/117 "2023-02-09T23:58:33Z")
Hush! I’m counting on my ability to read cursive to earn some extra income as a freelance consultant when I retire. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 12:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/118 "2023-02-10T00:02:03Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Not sure what problem we might be having in 25+ years that a moon or Mars base solves. Elton John was right, Mars is no place to raise your kids, in fact it’s cold as hell. And the moon is even colder. The Moon isn 't colder - the temperature is more variable between night and day, which is worse. You have to deal with very hot temps in sunlight, and cold temps in the dark. However… the place to live on the moon will be inside a lava tube. Lava tubes on the moon are warm(ish). Near surface lava tubes with skylights appear to maintain a temperature of as high as 15 degrees, and deeper lava tubes never get colder than -21C, and they stay that way around the clock, all year long. That’s actually an ideal temperature, because we can shed heat from industrial processes inside the tube without baking people. Lava tubes on the moon are the safest place in the solar system. The ones still open have been stable for billions of years. People in them are completely protected from cosmic rays, micrometeorites, etc. Way safer than the surface of Mars. Lava tubes on the moon are gigantic. The Marius Hills lava tube is up to 1 kilometers wide inside, 292 feet deep at the skylight and as much as a kilometer deep elsewhere, and at least 70 kilometers long. You could house millions of people in it. You could grow crops in it. It would be incredibly hard to pressurize, but much, much easier than terraforming Mars. But you could start with pressurized habitats inside. ---
**Author:** ![JohnT](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/johnt/32/15048_2.png) [@JohnT](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JohnT)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 12:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/119 "2023-02-10T00:06:03Z")
Let’s do the elevator before we do the colonies. Since we’re dreaming and all… ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 1:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/120 "2023-02-10T01:49:26Z")
> [@Lumpy](#): > > You don’t suppose that a country that used totalitarian measures to enforce radical birth control might use totalitarian measures to enforce radical elder control? Like for example having the mean survival time in care homes be about 18 months? I’m no fan of the government of China. But it is not that evil, at least when it comes to the Han majority. The Chinese tradition of respect for the elderly remains important to most Chinese. You can find articles giving examples of where this isn’t always followed; it mostly is because China is still low-income compared to almost all English speaking and European nations. The PRC government will try hard to avoid your scenario, and succeed. One possible decades-out problem, in the often-ignored category, is the [generally increasing PRC male-female ratio](https://www.statista.com/statistics/251102/sex-ratio-in-china/#:~:text=In%202022%2C%20the%20sex%20ratio,to%20be%20one%20to%20one). According to [some political science theorists](https://www.jstor.org/stable/3092100), countries with a high male-female ratio are more likely to go to war. If China launches a war of aggression, it will be impossible to say how, if at all, that ratio was involved, but I don’t like it. I also want to say (especially to any lurkers who are proud PRC citizens!) that China is, by great power standards, less warlike than others, in recent decades, not having launched a war since 1979 (Sino-Vietnamese War). I’m hoping China stays that way, and that others follow. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=7)