# What’s going to be a problem in 25 years, but people are choosing to ignore now? **URL:** \ **Category:** In My Humble Opinion\ **Created:** [February 6, 2023, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356 "2023-02-06T01:00:02Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![LSLGuy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lslguy/32/5813_2.png) [@LSLGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LSLGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 2:20am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/121 "2023-02-10T02:20:02Z")
> [@TheTooth](#): > > > [@Cervaise](#): > > > > So, a NoAirBNB. 😉 > > “Fantastic food but no atmosphere. Three stars” But with no atmosphere, the heavens (at night at least) will be bursting with stars. Thousands and thousands of them. Far more than mere Earthers can ever see. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 2:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/122 "2023-02-10T02:35:17Z")
> [@JohnT](#): > > Let’s do the elevator before we do the colonies. Since we’re dreaming and all… If Starship comes even close to the promised cost to orbit, space elevators will likely be outdated, as they won’t reach the same per-kg cost to orbit, and they only deliver payload to GTO, while most payloads go to LEO. ---
**Author:** ![TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thegunismightierthanthepen/32/2981_2.png) [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TheGunIsMightierThanThePen)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 3:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/123 "2023-02-10T03:12:02Z")
> [@LSLGuy](#): > > They might not have planned it that way from the git-go back in 2020. But they’re now recognizing a “virtue” (if you can call slaughtering elders a “virtue”) in the situation they find themselves in. > > A disease that preferentially attacks the rural, the ill-educated, and the elderly (who are oh-by-the-way also politically irrelevant) is manna for their demographics. Not as nice as an enduring fountain of millions of fresh new ethnic-Han babies, but it’ll do in the pinch they find themselves in. I’m not normally one given to conspiracy theories, but that _does_ sound disturbingly expedient. > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > The Chinese tradition of respect for the elderly remains important to most Chinese. You can find articles giving examples of where this isn’t always followed; it mostly is because China is still low-income compared to almost all English speaking and European nations. The PRC government will try hard to avoid your scenario, and succeed. Yeah, instead of “elder control”, I think it’s more likely that their government will fine or heavily tax childfree people to subsidize the childbearing folks. Or even more sinisterly, set up concentration camps where women are forced to become pregnant and deliver babies (the proverbial baby factories). ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 1:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/124 "2023-02-10T13:41:50Z")
> [@TheGunIsMightierThanThePen](#): > > Yeah, instead of “elder control”, I think it’s more likely that their government will fine or heavily tax childfree people to subsidize the childbearing folks. Or even more sinisterly, set up concentration camps where women are forced to become pregnant and deliver babies (the proverbial baby factories). Maybe I can identify another problem here people are choosing to ignore. Demonization of the PRC has bipartisan support in the U.S. The GOP may focus more on trade, and the Democrats may focus more on human rights, but overall there is great agreement – more than with Russia – on the evils of our large East Asia competitor. Taken to extreme, this makes war more likely. There are enough real human rights abuses without suggesting concentation camps will become their normal mode of operation for the 92 percent that is Han Chinese. As for your less extreme idea – that they will heavily tax childfree people – depending on what is meant by heavily, many (I think most but can’t find statistics) democracies already do this, and I favor it. ---
**Author:** ![Toxylon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f05b48/32.png) [@Toxylon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Toxylon)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 2:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/125 "2023-02-10T14:26:16Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > Why should I (again, in the general sense) care about the survival of the species if my children and grandchildren aren’t going to be part of that, nor are the children and grandchildren of anyone I know? I can’t fathom a mindset that sees no value to things outside their family. It seems to me most aren’t like that, or we would have no pioneers, nor heroes, no progress, no nothing. ---
**Author:** ![Horatius](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/horatius/32/3572_2.png) [@Horatius](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Horatius)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 2:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/126 "2023-02-10T14:43:38Z")
> [@Toxylon](#): > > It seems to me most aren’t like that, or we would have no pioneers, nor heroes, no progress, no nothing. And in this discussion, there’s a trend of, “Well, if we could colonize another planet, we could fix this one!” And yes, that’s pretty obviously true, if you’re talking about merely **technological** challenges. But as we’ve seen time and time again, the technology isn’t the insurmountable problem, the people are. Sure, we _could_ mitigate climate change, but that would require buy-in by a large majority of the world’s population, and in particular, all the rich people and political leaders. And we’ve seen that a lot of those people simply won’t buy into this plan. Sociologically speaking, it’s a lot easier to find a few thousand people keen to colonize a new planet than it is to convince billions of people to fix this one. ---
**Author:** ![elfkin477](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/a9a28c/32.png) [@elfkin477](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elfkin477)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 10:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/127 "2023-02-10T22:59:01Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > I don’t know how old you are, but I am 59 and still expect to see a moonbase in my lifetime Why? I’m going to be 46 in 2 months and an American hasn’t set foot on the moon my whole life plus 4.5 years. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 11:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/128 "2023-02-10T23:17:37Z")
The reason interest in the Moon waned was because our knowledge at the time suggested it was just a dry ball of dusty rock. Plus, NASA was the only game in town, and NASA became bloated and expensive and captured by politics and special interests. The environment is very different now. Cost to space has already dropped by more than an order of magnitude from the Shuttle days. The Moon turns out to be far more interesting than we thought, with billions of gallons of recoverable water and other valuable elements. Lava Tubes provide a pristine look at the early solar system and can provide protected living space for millions. China is planning a manned Moon program, reigniting a cold war race to the Moon. The Artemis mission is moving forward, and its goal is a permanent presence on the Moon. But most importantly, SpaceX is going to the Moon with Starship, and it brings a level of capability and cost reduction that is remarkable. The Starship system can land 150 tons on the Moon, for a fraction of the cost of Apollo. The Saturn V could put about 15-20 tons on the Moon, at about 100 times the cost. What would have been probitively expensive under NASA is now within reach. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [February 10, 2023, 11:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/129 "2023-02-10T23:30:14Z")
> [@ZonexandScout](#): > > The city installs even more cameras, of course, and they are SO convenient to use for other important tasks. “That was license plate XXX-1234? He owes property taxes. Stop him and impound that car.” That still sounds perfectly fine… ---
**Author:** ![motu](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/motu/32/259_2.png) [@motu](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/motu)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/130 "2023-02-11T00:09:08Z")
Those few thousand people would need a support network of millions, maybe billions. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 1:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/131 "2023-02-11T01:34:33Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > But most importantly, SpaceX is going to the Moon with Starship, and it brings a level of capability and cost reduction that is remarkable. The Starship system can land 150 tons on the Moon, for a fraction of the cost of Apollo. _Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha!!!_ And the Tesla will have full self-driving capability any day now. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 1:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/132 "2023-02-11T01:39:18Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > The reason interest in the Moon waned was because our knowledge at the time suggested it was just a dry ball of dusty rock. Plus, NASA was the only game in town, and NASA became bloated and expensive and captured by politics and special interests. It was more that, OK, we’ve been to the moon several times, do we really need Apollos 18-20? Most people didn’t see the point. We’d gotten there before Russia, and the Russkis had given up on it anyway: mission accomplished. And Nixon didn’t feel like fighting that battle. (He’d soon have others. 😉 ) ETA: Cost was a political issue in that many people were saying we needed to be spending that money down here. But bloat and resulting cost wasn’t an issue: the big money had already been spent to get Apollo up and running; the per-unit cost of subsequent Apollo missions would have been comparatively cheap. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/133 "2023-02-11T02:36:19Z")
We’re going to run out of chocolate! > **[A Shortage of Cocoa Threatens the Chocolate Production Worldwide](https://www.crystalchocolatier.com/shortage-cocoa-threatens-chocolate-production-worldwide)** > > If you are a chocolate lover, then you would not want the coming years to arrive. Why? Well, we don’t know if you can handle the truth but here it is: The world expects a bad future for chocolate due to a worldwide shortage of cocoa within the coming... ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 2:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/134 "2023-02-11T02:45:52Z")
RTFirefly: Let’s take this to the SpaceX thread if you want to continue this. Here’s another crisis we will gave to worry about: The vast increase in expliration and mining of minerals that will be required for the ‘green transition’: [https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/05/11/mineral-production-to-soar-as-demand-for-clean-energy-increases](https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/05/11/mineral-production-to-soar-as-demand-for-clean-energy-increases) > [@](#): > > A new [World Bank Group report](https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The-Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pdf) finds that the production of minerals, such as graphite, lithium and cobalt, could increase by nearly 500% by 2050, to meet the growing demand for clean energy technologies. It estimates that over 3 billion tons of minerals and metals will be needed to deploy wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as energy storage, required for achieving a below 2°C future. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/135 "2023-02-11T02:53:32Z")
Re chocolate shortage: > [@](#): > > [Experts are painting a bleak picture of a global chocolate shortage by 2020.](https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/wordofmouth/2014/nov/18/save-our-chocolate-expert-tips-halt-cocoa-shortage) — The Guardian, 2014 Here is a chart showing chocolate price fluctuations: > **[Cocoa - Price - Chart - Historical Data - News](https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/cocoa)** > > Cocoa increased 1,788 USD/MT or 68.77% since the beginning of 2023, according to trading on a contract for difference (CFD) that tracks the benchmark market for this commodity. Cocoa - values, historical data, forecasts and news - updated on December... Is it possible that predicting the chocolate market is, as with the stock market, almost impossible? As for a chocolate shortage being bleak, it depends on whether you eat the product, or farm it. ---
**Author:** ![RTFirefly](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/c77e96/32.png) [@RTFirefly](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RTFirefly)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/136 "2023-02-11T16:04:00Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > RTFirefly: Let’s take this to the SpaceX thread if you want to continue this. Not really. Just that Elon Musk is capable of impressively screwing things up. Anything that’s his idea and not something his engineers came up with, have developed, and stand behind, is likely to be another snow job like he’s been doing everywhere else. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/137 "2023-02-11T19:36:52Z")
> [@RTFirefly](#): > > the idea of colonizing another planet seems to be, in many people’s minds, an excuse for **not** fixing this one Some people are hell bent on getting boots on Mars and a base on Luna. I think it would be cool, and there are a gazillion articles explaining that the different space programs have not been a waste of money, but in fact paid for themselves. As to why? Not for the survival of humanity, not for the research that we all will benefit from. People want to go because it’s there. Just as Mt Everest, South and North Pole and any other location that is hard to get to. Being the first grants you a kind of immortality. For some people their epitaph is really important. Only a handful, maybe a thousand, individuals among us 8 BN will be remembered in 100 years. Maybe some relatives will know some of us by name as in _My great grandfather’s name was Rufus T, but I don’t know anything about him_ but no one will know anything about the life of that individual. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [February 11, 2023, 9:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/138 "2023-02-11T21:18:26Z")
A good example of this is Starlink. When Musk started SpaceX, he did it because he wanted to colonize Mars. But to do that, he knew he had to drop the cost of spaceflight. So SpaceX built Falcon 9, and pushed the cost of space launch way down. Then they realized that suddenly it was feasible to launch a satellite constellation to provide high speed internet to the world. Starlink could wind up being the biggest boon to the 3rd world than all the NGOs have managed ever. It brings competition to places that have only one provider. It brings education and commerce to places that have no grid or telecom infrastructure. And it was just a side benefit of a mission to Mars. Starlink may go public this year, and initial valuations start at $70 billion. That would recoup all of SpaceX’s investments in R&D, and then some. Starlink alone may fund Musk’s Mars ambitions. And what will we discover of value once Starship is flying? ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2023, 2:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/139 "2023-02-12T02:36:53Z")
> [@Sam\_Stone](#): > > Here’s another crisis we will gave to worry about: The vast increase in exploration and mining of minerals that will be required for the ‘green transition’: In general there are lots of materials that can meet the specifications for a particular problem. So if some become very expensive alternatives will be used. For example: > The **lithium iron phosphate batteries** Tesla has invested in differ in the battery chemistry required to create the positive end of the battery during discharge, called the cathode. While the battery still requires lithium, it uses iron, which is abundant and cheap, instead of metals like cobalt and nickel. [https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/cars/tesla-lfp-battery/index.html](https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/01/cars/tesla-lfp-battery/index.html) ---
**Author:** ![drachillix](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/48db29/32.png) [@drachillix](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drachillix)\ **Post date:** [February 12, 2023, 2:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356/140 "2023-02-12T02:48:55Z")
I think we are already seeing some of this but i think its going to get much worse. The prevalence and influence of “short attention span theatre” like TikTok. Where you seem to have mountains of attractive idiots who are making 6 figure careers of of spreading some of the most horrific and toxic “advice” and being applauded for it. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=6) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-going-to-be-a-problem-in-25-years-but-people-are-choosing-to-ignore-now/979356.md?page=8)