# What’s Trump’s Trial Strategy? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [June 24, 2023, 8:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060 "2023-06-24T20:14:53Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Spoons](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/spoons/32/3141_2.png) [@Spoons](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoons)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/21 "2023-06-25T02:56:15Z")
> [@Procrustus](#): > > I think it’s more likely that he doesn’t have a clue that he’s in serious trouble. That’s my feeling. Trump has been in legal troubles before, but they’ve all been civil matters, not criminal ones. In civil matters, Trump has always been able to buy his way out of them, or offer to pay pennies on the dollar to satisfy a debt, or do whatever it takes to settle the matter and make it go away. He sees himself as a master dealmaker, who can always get the better of the other party. But this time, he cannot make it go away, nor can he buy his way out of it. This is a criminal matter, and no matter how much he tries to wheel and deal, nothing he’s learned in years of dealmaking in civil courts is going to do him any good in a criminal court. And I don’t think he realizes this. I think his stubbornness in not believing that this is anything more than a civil matter (or at least, that a criminal matter is nothing more than a civil matter) is what is making competent lawyers abandon him, like rats from a sinking ship. He’s undoubtedly thinking that he can buy his way out of this one, like he did in so many civil matters, and when his criminal lawyers tell him that that is not possible, he refuses to believe it. So they leave. So, to answer the OP in a roundabout way, Trump has no criminal trial strategy. He thinks this will work like a civil trial, and if buying off the other party, with money or influence or perks or whatever, works there, why not now? As @Procrustus said, Trump has no idea of how much trouble he’s in; and thus, has no feasible criminal trial strategy. ---
**Author:** ![Czarcasm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/czarcasm/32/4050_2.png) [@Czarcasm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Czarcasm)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/22 "2023-06-25T03:02:08Z")
1. Stall. 2. Baffle them with bullshit. 3. Rile up the Trumpettes enough to make a trial damn near impossible. 4. Rinse. 5. Repeat. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 3:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/23 "2023-06-25T03:04:11Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > I’m not being snarky, I literally do not see a problem at all. A person already incarcerated can run for office and win and serve. Why is it any different if they are imprisoned after being elected? > > Let’s say hypothetically a guy runs for president while in prison and wins. Does he get released because public opinion is against it? Not accusing you of snark! But the answer to your last question is yes, in the likely event that public opinion is sufficiently against it. I think you are looking at this from a non-mainstream POV. If the POTUS is hindered in doing his duties by being incarcerated, that would be a constitutional crisis. You can say that Trump, when president, doesn’t really do his proper duties, I will agree. But unlike most Americans, I am unconditionally and always anti-Trump. In this scenario, where Trump legitimately won, pressure to let him out would quickly mount. So winning the election really is a good trial strategy for him. ---
**Author:** ![Atamasama](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/atamasama/32/12961_2.png) [@Atamasama](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Atamasama)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 3:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/24 "2023-06-25T03:23:56Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > I think you are looking at this from a non-mainstream POV. If the POTUS is hindered in doing his duties by being incarcerated, that would be a constitutional crisis. But **how** is it a constitutional crisis? What conflict is it creating? What part of the constitution prevents a POTUS from being in prison? The constitution is a set of written rules, it’s not whatever MAGA or even the voting public want it to be. ---
**Author:** ![Dissonance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/85f322/32.png) [@Dissonance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dissonance)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 4:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/25 "2023-06-25T04:27:22Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > If people don’t want a POTUS in prison, don’t vote for a guy on trial with serious crimes. Couldn’t agree with you more. > [@Atamasama](#): > > Let’s say hypothetically a guy runs for president while in prison and wins. Does he get released because public opinion is against him being in prison? That’s not how the law works. It’s in no way a constitutional crisis, but if TFG - or anyone else - is convicted of a federal felony and sentenced to a prison term to be served at a prison of the Bureau of Prisons, it does create a crisis in that the President would be functionally unable to carry out his duties of his office while serving his sentence. Even in a minimal security Federal prison, a prisoner’s phone access is severely limited and includes no expectation of privacy on any conversation. Oh, and only outgoing calls are allowed, the VP can’t just call TFG to let him know Russia has just declared war on the US, the nukes are on the way here, and should we launch a counterstrike? Cell phones are contraband, internet access is even more severely limited than phone access, visiting hours are severely limited, again with no expectation of privacy. There is in fact no expectation of privacy for an inmate at any time. Don’t know how he’s going to get any daily briefings of classified or top-secret information, but on the plus side at least that’ll keep him from reoffending while serving his sentence. Nobody’s fault but the idiots who elect a president serving a federal felony sentence, but there it is. ---
**Author:** ![Odesio](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/odesio/32/20003_2.png) [@Odesio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Odesio)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 4:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/26 "2023-06-25T04:59:32Z")
> [@Spoons](#): > > But this time, he cannot make it go away, nor can he buy his way out of it. This is a criminal matter, and no matter how much he tries to wheel and deal, nothing he’s learned in years of dealmaking in civil courts is going to do him any good in a criminal court. It’s interesting to note that the government tried to make a deal with Trump: They came to him, those big tough lawyers, very tough lawyers, with tears in their eyes begging, “Please, Mr. Trump, give us the documents and this matter will be settled.” Trump had an opportunity to make a deal, the most perfect deal, that would have made all of this into a nothingburger. I don’t believe Trump has any valid legal strategy for defending himself at trial. He’s not a particuarly deep thinker, and while it’s possible he’s hoping that his attacks on the Department of Justice, Smith, Cannon, the FBI, and all others might influence a potential juror, I don’t think there’s much of a chance of that. Attack and deflect has worked for him for so many years it’s entirely possible he doesn’t see the peril he’s in, but I doubt it. I think he’s scared. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 5:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/27 "2023-06-25T05:53:02Z")
Given Trump’s age, I’d guess that he recognizes that even a plea deal would amount to life imprisonment, so he’s got nothing to lose by going to trial. The problem is that the feds don’t indict someone unless the case is very strong, so even still he’s got maybe a 95% chance of losing. But such a loss still = de facto life imprisonment. So I expect him to go to court, either remain silent and get cooked while his lawyers give up feeble defenses, or open his mouth and self-incriminate and get cooked all the same. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 5:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/28 "2023-06-25T05:57:18Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > It’s in no way a constitutional crisis, but if TFG - or anyone else - is convicted of a federal felony and sentenced to a prison term to be served at a prison of the Bureau of Prisons, it does create a crisis in that the President would be functionally unable to carry out his duties of his office while serving his sentence. If a president Trump were unable to execute his duties this way, this sounds like time for the 25th Amendment and his VP would become acting president for the rest of Trump’s term. ---
**Author:** ![Robot\_Arm](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/robot_arm/32/18280_2.png) [@Robot\_Arm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Robot_Arm)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 6:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/29 "2023-06-25T06:42:33Z")
> [@Dissonance](#): > > It’s in no way a constitutional crisis, but if TFG - or anyone else - is convicted of a federal felony and sentenced to a prison term to be served at a prison of the Bureau of Prisons, it does create a crisis in that the President would be functionally unable to carry out his duties of his office while serving his sentence. One of the NPR stations in Boston brings politicians on to take calls and answer questions. They have the Mayor and the Governor on about once-a-month, each. I think I’ve heard the Attorney General on, too. I think it’s great that they will actually interact with their constituents like that. It’s rare for a president to meet with ordinary citizens as part of their official duties in office, as opposed to when they’re campaigning. Ironically, a president in prison might be closer to their average constituent than one in the White House. ---
**Author:** ![Peter\_Morris](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/peter_morris/32/359_2.png) [@Peter\_Morris](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Peter_Morris)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 6:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/30 "2023-06-25T06:49:56Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If a president Trump were unable to execute his duties this way, this sounds like time for the 25th Amendment and his VP would become acting president for the rest of Trump’s term. But what if his VP is MTG or Kari Lake? Far better _not_ to invoke the 25th. As for Trump’s trial strategy, I think he’s just going to play the political prisoner. He will declare that the whole process is persecution by an illegitimate government, and say that he does not recognize their authority, and refuse to give a defense. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 8:03am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/31 "2023-06-25T08:03:30Z")
> [@Czarcasm](#): > > rile up the Trumpettes enough to make a trial damn near impossible. This is the answer. Everyone in this thread is so sure that Trump will be found guilty. But that is not going to happen. There will be one Maga cultist on the jury. Trump will walk free. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 9:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/32 "2023-06-25T09:58:12Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > There will be one Maga cultist on the jury. > Trump will walk free. Not on ALL the juries he will face in the next three years. The government has too much evidence in too many cases for him to walk free on everything. He will be found guilty of something. Some folks here are making the mistake of getting into the weeds of how a POTUS would operate in prison. There will be no prison sentence at all. As my OP states, he will be confined to home, which if he’s elected POTUS may well be “The White House” or all of the District of Columbia. That’s just a distraction from the central question here. As to his state of mind, I disagree with the notion of his inability to foresee being found guilty. To the contrary, I think he’s extremely aware that’s what he’s facing. He doesn’t need to be a genius to see a guilty verdict looming–a child or an idiot or even an animal is capable of fearing punishment. He’s just 100% focused on being re-elected (which also satisfies his ego) as his only means of escape. ---
**Author:** ![Chefguy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chefguy/32/138_2.png) [@Chefguy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chefguy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 11:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/33 "2023-06-25T11:54:30Z")
Part of his strategy has been the [recent move](https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/25/us/politics/trump-donations-legal-fees.html) to jack up the percentage of donations that go to his “Save America” PAC from 1% to 10%. This was done specifically to pay for his legal bills. ---
**Author:** ![slicedalone](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/slicedalone/32/12515_2.png) [@slicedalone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/slicedalone)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 12:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/34 "2023-06-25T12:07:39Z")
Mathematically there is almost no chance for him NOT to be found guilty of a felony. If prosecutors have a 96% conviction rate and he’s facing at least 3 felony charges he’s got far less than a 1% chance of a not guilty verdict at some point soon. It’s over. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/35 "2023-06-25T12:19:16Z")
> [@Atamasama](#): > > > [@PhillyGuy](#): > > > > I think you are looking at this from a non-mainstream POV. If the POTUS is hindered in doing his duties by being incarcerated, that would be a constitutional crisis. > > But **how** is it a constitutional crisis? > > What conflict is it creating? What part of the constitution prevents a POTUS from being in prison? The first paragraph of the Wikipedia Constitutional Crisis article covers it. Here’s how it starts: [Constitutional Crisis](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Constitutional_crisis) [quote]In political science, a constitutional crisis is a problem or conflict in the function of a government that the political constitution or other fundamental governing law is perceived to be unable to resolve. [/quote] Note the word “perceived” above. My perception is that during Trump’s first term, he failed to do parts of his job. For example, he failed to nominate officials, subject to Senate confirmation, promptly. While he was criticized for this, it wasn’t a constitutional crisis for two reasons. One reason: It was not a problem exacerbated by the President’s inability to self-pardon, or to pardon for state crimes. Another: Perception. Opinion leaders would perceive that Trump, being in prison, contributed to the badness of the job he was doing. Media would then pile on with endless stories about how Trump was failing to conduct essential government business from the orange-jumpsuit White House, with conduct of foreign affairs delayed awaiting availability of a prison guard cleared to read classified presidential mail. Every consitutional crisis gets resolved, the problem being that resolution involves extra-constitutional action. So DJT might resolve the crisis by ordering Marines to free him from his state lockup. I’m not anticipating a civil war between state and national forces! In a scenario such as described above, the governor of the relavant state would cave in to prevent that, resolving the crisis. ---
**Author:** ![PhillyGuy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/ed655f/32.png) [@PhillyGuy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PhillyGuy)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 12:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/36 "2023-06-25T12:36:18Z")
> [@slicedalone](#): > > Mathematically there is almost no chance for him NOT to be found guilty of a felony. If prosecutors have a 96% conviction rate and he’s facing at least 3 felony charges he’s got far less than a 1% chance of a not guilty verdict at some point soon. It’s over. That’s sounds like a federal conviction rate. State rates are less. Also, [the rate for members of the House of Representatives](https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/07/29/more-than-two-dozen-members-of-congress-have-been-indicted-since-1980/) is less. And the senatorial conviction rate is downright pitiful. Recall Bob Menendez, Kay Bailey Hutchison, and Ted Stevens (convicted but won appeal before prison date). Might there be a pattern here where the higher the offical, the less the chances of conviction? It remains to be seen if the presidential jury trial conviction rate will be higher than the impeachment conviction rate. I think it will be, but don’t bet your rent money on Trump’s trial strategy failing. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 5:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/37 "2023-06-25T17:38:38Z")
> [@chappachula](#): > > There will be one Maga cultist on the jury. > Trump will walk free. Actually in this case, there will be a hung jury, and likely another trial. Unless of course as mentioned above, he wins the presidency. So this hope of a MAGA cultist on the jury is simply another delaying tactic. ---
**Author:** ![bobot](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bobot/32/21622_2.png) [@bobot](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bobot)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/38 "2023-06-25T17:41:08Z")
> [@PhillyGuy](#): > > Might there be a pattern here where the higher the offical, the less the chances of conviction? Illinois tried two governors in a row and convicted and imprisoned both of them. I can’t remember an Illinois governor who was tried and not convicted. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/39 "2023-06-25T18:09:52Z")
> [@slicedalone](#): > > Mathematically there is almost no chance for him NOT to be found guilty of a felony. If prosecutors have a 96% conviction rate and he’s facing at least 3 felony charges he’s got far less than a 1% chance of a not guilty verdict at some point soon. It’s over. That assumes that each charge is an independent roll of the conviction rate dice. Do you think they are? Of if one charge is found lacking (for reasons …) does that impact the chances that the others are found lacking as well? (It is similar to predictions in past elections based on polling: if one state prediction was off in one direction due to some systems factor the odds were high that most were similarly impacted.) ---
**Author:** ![carnivorousplant](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnivorousplant/32/3563_2.png) [@carnivorousplant](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/carnivorousplant)\ **Post date:** [June 25, 2023, 6:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060/40 "2023-06-25T18:37:51Z")
Perhaps he is depending upon the judge he appointed, Aileen M. Cannon to get him out of it. Would she determine the sentence, or would the jury? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-s-trump-s-trial-strategy/986060.md?page=3)