# What share of the Hispanic vote will the Republican party receive in 2016? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 10, 2015, 8:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116 "2015-12-10T20:51:36Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 6\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/21 "2015-12-11T05:19:51Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > The crime bill though had mixed effects among the black community. African-Americans decry mass incarceration while welcoming their safer neighborhoods. Deportation policy is a more zero sum game. Yes, Democrats are better on deportation, but still pretty bad if you have an undocumented family member. “Hey, if I vote Democrat, my grandfather has a 15% lower chance of being deported! I’m going to run, not walk, to my local precinct!” > > Now of course I’m mostly thinking aloud here. I don’t know for sure why so many Latinos vote Republican. But a significant enough number do(over a third) that they have to have their reasons and i suspect it’s no more complex than both parties are bad on deportation, but one party is definitely better for my wallet. As a Hispanic that has talked to very conservative Hispanics allow me to tell you that you are the one dreaming. Never before I remember my relatives of the conservative side be so upset with the Republicans as when they opposed the Dreamers and when many of them continue to oppose immigration reform. And besides dreaming, you continue to ignore the many reasons that I explained many times to you about why most Hispanics continue to vote Democrat. The attitude shown to many Hispanics when Republicans claim to not understand why is that they vote as they do is also one reason. Oh and **Qin Shi Huangdi** , you should notice that the poll **adaher** is using is from the mid term elections, and he still misuses that to tell himself and others that minorities will not vote much in the next presidential elections. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/22 "2015-12-11T05:32:19Z")
I’m pretty sure he knows that 2014 was a midterm election. I used the poll to demonstrate that in lower turnout affairs, more Republican Latinos turn out than Democratic Latinos. So if 2016 features lower turnout than 2012, then Republicans will probably win a larger share of the Latino vote. 33% was my prediction. GIGO, let’s have your prediction. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/23 "2015-12-11T05:37:16Z")
> [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](#): > > 30-35% reliable support isn’t that robust especially once you take into account Cubans and middle-class Hispanics into account. By Republican standards it’s fantastic. Imagine if Republicans could win a third of gays or African-Americans? ---
**Author:** ![Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/q/f04885/32.png) [@Qin\_Shi\_Huangdi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qin_Shi_Huangdi)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:38am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/24 "2015-12-11T05:38:59Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > By Republican standards it’s fantastic. Imagine if Republicans could win a third of gays or African-Americans? And if Democrats could win a third of Southern whites, it’d have the Solid South back. ---
**Author:** ![GIGObuster](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gigobuster/32/421_2.png) [@GIGObuster](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GIGObuster)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:49am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/25 "2015-12-11T05:49:05Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I’m pretty sure he knows that 2014 was a midterm election. I used the poll to demonstrate that in lower turnout affairs, more Republican Latinos turn out than Democratic Latinos. So if 2016 features lower turnout than 2012, then Republicans will probably win a larger share of the Latino vote. 33% was my prediction. > > GIGO, let’s have your prediction. Your prediction therefore stinks as it ignores what happens in a general election and that many Hispanics, even among the wealthy, are reporting that Trump will not get their support, and the most conservative ones do waver at the prospect of having to carry water for Trump in the general election. > **[GOP Hispanics Warn Party's Candidates: Ditch Trump Rhetoric](https://www.nbcnews.com/news/latino/gop-hispanics-warn-partys-candidates-ditch-trump-rhetoric-n452586)** > > A coalition of GOP Hispanics denounced Donald Trump and warned other candidates against using his rhetoric. My prediction is that if Trump or Cruz is the nominee that then the Republicans will be lucky to get about 19% of the Hispanic vote. With other candidates I do think that they could reach 25% ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 5:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116/26 "2015-12-11T05:58:46Z")
Trump won’t be the nominee, and Cruz probably won’t be the nominee. In either case I don’t care how much of the Latino vote they get, since they won’t win regardless. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-hispanic-vote-will-the-republican-party-receive-in-2016/740116.md?page=1)