# What share of the white vote will the Democratic Party receive in 2016? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 11, 2015, 12:55am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240 "2015-11-11T00:55:25Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 6:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/21 "2015-12-10T18:34:56Z")
40%? For one thing, millennial whites in many states are more liberal than older whites. Not all states, but in many. Lots of young whites enter the voting age group while older whites die off. Plus whatever white people would leave the Democratic party have already done so. However this is the third term for a Democrat which will hurt Hillary with all voters, not just whites. But 40 is a good estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/22 "2015-12-10T18:39:45Z")
> [@ITR\_champion](#): > > . Also, their policies have alienated a lot of people. Conservatives like to say this, but what is the evidence? I think what they really mean is ‘people who would hate Obama and the Democrats no matter what they did ended up hating Obama and the democrats’. What policies have the administration done that alienated large swaths of whites who voted Democrat in 2008 and 2012? What has Obama done that would alienate them? Health reform? Many whites who are democratic are either poor and uneducated, or they are upper middle class, educated liberals. Both tend to like the aca either because it benefits them personally or for ideological reasons. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 8:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/23 "2015-12-10T20:25:28Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Probably higher than Obama, since I think there were a small but significant number of white Democrats (a few percent’s worth or so) who would not vote for a black candidate. At least [one researcher concluded that “racial animus in the U.S. cost Obama three to five percentage points … in the 2008 election.”](https://web.archive.org/web/20120503201240/http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~sstephen/papers/RacialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf) With Bush’s dismal record, the emerging financial crisis, and McCain foibles (Palin? :eek: ) the Democrats were poised for a landslide victory. Instead the 2008 Presidential election was closer than most elections. ---
**Author:** ![Steve\_MB](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/steve_mb/32/5339_2.png) [@Steve\_MB](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Steve_MB)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 8:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/24 "2015-12-10T20:29:50Z")
Given the steadily deepening mess the GOP is sinking into, I’d say mid-40s. A real fiasco on the Republican side could push it to the 50% mark. ---
**Author:** ![Lemur866](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lemur866/32/434_2.png) [@Lemur866](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lemur866)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 8:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/25 "2015-12-10T20:50:44Z")
Is Trump the Nominee? Then 70% of the white vote. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/26 "2015-12-10T22:00:45Z")
> [@septimus](#): > > At least [one researcher concluded that “racial animus in the U.S. cost Obama three to five percentage points … in the 2008 election.”](https://web.archive.org/web/20120503201240/http://www.people.fas.harvard.edu/~sstephen/papers/RacialAnimusAndVotingSethStephensDavidowitz.pdf) > > With Bush’s dismal record, the emerging financial crisis, and McCain foibles (Palin? :eek: ) the Democrats were poised for a landslide victory. Instead the 2008 Presidential election was closer than most elections. The 2008 margin was still pretty large – I don’t think it was closer than most elections, at least not off the top of my head. ---
**Author:** ![Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/85e7bf/32.png) [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hey_Hey_Paula)\ **Post date:** [December 10, 2015, 10:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/27 "2015-12-10T22:29:51Z")
The Democrats will get 100% of this white lady’s vote. I cannot imagine a scenario where I would ever again vote for a Republican for President, Senator or Congressperson. I’m registered no-party-affiliation, by the way, and have been since the 80’s. ---
**Author:** ![Wesley\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/wesley_clark/32/20581_2.png) [@Wesley\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Wesley_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/28 "2015-12-11T02:53:11Z")
> **[2016 Calculator](https://latinodecisions.com/2016-calculator/)** > > Enter your estimates for what the 2016 electorate will look like using our new LD Threshold Calculator. Simply type estimates into columns 1 and 2 below and th According to that, at least with numbers I assume are reasonable (1/4 GOP vote for latinos and asians) the democrats only need about 37-38% of the white vote to win a majority. Also the white vote is not a monolith. When I used to look into it, there was a pretty big difference between states regarding white voters. In Vermont, the most white dem state the whites were about 65-70% democratic. In the deep south (MS, AL, LA) the white vote was about 10% democratic. Much of the white bias towards the GOP comes from the south (where it is about 2/3 GOP, except the deep south which is 9/10 GOP) and the plains states (I think 3/5 GOP, I don’t know much about that area). Outside those areas the white vote is more even between GOP & Democrats. ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/29 "2015-12-11T03:14:35Z")
> [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](#): > > The Democrats will get 100% of this white lady’s vote. I cannot imagine a scenario where I would ever again vote for a Republican for President, Senator or Congressperson. I’m registered no-party-affiliation, by the way, and have been since the 80’s. Let me guess: a) you have a womb b) you think you should make all decision involving use of this womb You wild radical ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/30 "2015-12-11T03:18:31Z")
Nitpick: It’s between a woman and her doctor. Nitpick#2: such a concept should apply to a woman(or man’s) whole body, not just the private parts. ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/31 "2015-12-11T03:28:53Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Nitpick: It’s between a woman and her doctor. Nitpick#2: such a concept should apply to a woman(or man’s) whole body, not just the private parts. No, you don’t get to decide either how Paula makes decision, or what inference I might make based on cited posts. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/32 "2015-12-11T03:29:16Z")
> [@Lemur866](#): > > Is Trump the Nominee? Then 70% of the white vote. Sadly, I think you overestimate white people. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/33 "2015-12-11T03:36:54Z")
> [@j666](#): > > No, you don’t get to decide either how Paula makes decision, or what inference I might make based on cited posts. Your second protest is valid. Your first is not, since I never claimed the right to decide how Paula makes her decisions between her and her doctor. Unless you are endorsing a very radical concept here, that doctors get no say as to whether or not they will perform an abortion or a sterilization or what have you. ---
**Author:** ![Merneith](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/57b2e6/32.png) [@Merneith](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Merneith)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 4:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/34 "2015-12-11T04:58:46Z")
I think he’s trying to slam Paula because he assumes that she’s only voting for the Democrats because Paula thinks with her womb. It’s an odd comment and it invites some odd questions about j666’s own voting patterns. I’m pretty sure that he’s saying that he only votes for people who have dicks. ---
**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 2:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/35 "2015-12-11T14:11:53Z")
> [@Steve\_MB](#): > > Given the steadily deepening mess the GOP is sinking into, I’d say mid-40s. A real fiasco on the Republican side could push it to the 50% mark. Optimism is good, but this sounds like fantasy. The election may be very close and Democrats need to work hard. Don’t forget that any terrorist attack in October will cause Republican numbers to soar. > [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](#): > > I’m registered no-party-affiliation, by the way, and have been since the 80’s. Please re-register and vote for Trump in your Primary! There’s no worry he’ll win in November, or even become the GOP nominee, but the more support he gets the more the GOP will disintegrate. The Trump candidacy, if it continues, will do _ **huuuge** _ ( 😉 ) good for America. _If it continues._ My fear is that Trump will fizzle out in a few months and the GOP will have time to unite behind Cruz or Rubio, either of whom would have a better chance than Trump of beating Hillary and would probably make worse Presidents even than Trump! ---
**Author:** ![Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/85e7bf/32.png) [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Hey_Hey_Paula)\ **Post date:** [December 11, 2015, 6:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/36 "2015-12-11T18:19:18Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > I think he’s trying to slam Paula because he assumes that she’s only voting for the Democrats because Paula thinks with her womb. > > It’s an odd comment and it invites some odd questions about j666’s own voting patterns. I’m pretty sure that he’s saying that he only votes for people who have dicks. Well, at my age that particular issue is all academic anyway, and that’s not the only reason I’ll never vote Republican. ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 1:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/37 "2015-12-12T01:54:10Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > Your second protest is valid. Your first is not, since I never claimed the right to decide how Paula makes her decisions between her and her doctor. > > Unless you are endorsing a very radical concept here, that doctors get no say as to whether or not they will perform an abortion or a sterilization or what have you. Try again. No one said anything about what a doctor will or will not do. No matter what reason you might have for the assumptions you made about my post, I did not say that. Don’t put words in my mouth. > [@j666](#): > > Let me guess: > a) you have a womb > b) you think you should make all decision involving use of this womb > > You wild radical ---
**Author:** ![j666](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/9de0a6/32.png) [@j666](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/j666)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 2:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/38 "2015-12-12T02:02:25Z")
> [@Merneith](#): > > I think he’s trying to slam Paula because he assumes that she’s only voting for the Democrats because Paula thinks with her womb. > > It’s an odd comment and it invites some odd questions about j666’s own voting patterns. I’m pretty sure that he’s saying that he only votes for people who have dicks. You really think its an insult to imply a woman might think she gets to make her reproductive decisions, not her senator or representative or pharmacist? > [@Hey\_Hey\_Paula](#): > > Well, at my age that particular issue is all academic anyway, and that’s not the only reason I’ll never vote Republican. [And I apologize if what I said came across as a shot; the “wild radical” part was meant to be facetious] ---
**Author:** ![msmith537](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/d9b06d/32.png) [@msmith537](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/msmith537)\ **Post date:** [December 12, 2015, 2:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/39 "2015-12-12T02:05:40Z")
I feel like the biggest weakness the Democratic Party has with this election is that they aren’t reaching out to the insane billionaire with ridiculous hair crowd. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [December 13, 2015, 6:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240/40 "2015-12-13T06:59:08Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > I think the Democratic nominee will get about 37% of the white vote. The Democrats’ lawless stance on immigration and wanting to expand the welfare state and raise taxes while killing good paying jobs in the energy industry is going to further push white voters away from the party. > [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > There, _that’s_ the good stuff. 😉 > [@adaher](#): > > Hey, it’s better than “White people are racist, that’s why they vote Republican.” > [@Procrustus](#): > > I don’t know _any_ white people who think like this. And I know a lot of white people. Hey, a lot of my friends are white (well, there’s Benny from the warehouse, and I do chat with him on smoke breaks, so yeah…) In fact, I saw The Breakfast Club twice. Princess Bride, Lebowski, Triscuits with brie… I’m down wif muh pale brethren. And they all think you’re laughably wrong. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-share-of-the-white-vote-will-the-democratic-party-receive-in-2016/737240.md?page=3)