# What should the West do about the present situation in Iraq?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553>\
**Category:** Great Debates\
**Created:** [June 11, 2014, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553 "2014-06-11T18:20:15Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 20\
**Page:** 8

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/141 "2014-06-25T03:36:46Z")

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Correction its eight. Not right

> [@tagos](#):
>
> The Kurds and or the militias? Kurds won’t be interested and while the militias might do a great job of reigniting a civil war I doubt they are up to invading Syria.

Hold on with the last EIGHT words. Something like 20,000 Shiite fighters have been in Syria fighting the likes of ISIS, but have returned to defend Baghdad.

If these are Badr militia they would coordinate with the US. If they follow Sadr, probably not.

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**Author:** ![tagos](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/bbe5ce/32.png) [@tagos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/tagos)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 9:24am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/142 "2014-06-25T09:24:47Z")

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You live in a fantasy world, you really do.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 11:01am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/143 "2014-06-25T11:01:16Z")

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> [@tagos](#):
>
> You live in a fantasy world, you really do.

Are you saying that my point regarding Iraqi Shiite fighters coming back from Syria is not correct and is some kind of fantasy?

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 11:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/144 "2014-06-25T11:12:16Z")

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> [@tagos](#):
>
> You live in a fantasy world, you really do.

The first post in this thread contains a link to this:

Turkey calls for emergency NATO meeting on Iraq: Turkish official  
Reuters Jun 11, 2014 1:29 PM

> [@](#):
>
> ANKARA (Reuters) - Turkey has called for an emergency meeting of NATO to discuss the security situation in Iraq after militants took 80 Turkish citizens hostage during a lightning advance, a Turkish foreign ministry official said.

This could turn into a NATO operation to destroy ISIS. An attack on one is an attack on all. Obama is not averse to using military when it is justified. There is no fantasy here. Its too had Obama wont be able to have the Democratic base behind him if he does or if NATO Decides to defend Turkey.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 1:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/145 "2014-06-25T13:17:18Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> This could turn into a NATO operatiol to destroy ISIS. An attack on one is an attack on all. Obama is not averse to using military when it is justified. There is no fantasy here. Its too had Obama wont be able to have the Democratic base behind him if he does or if NATO Decides to defend Turkey.

Small fly in the ointment: ISIL has not attacked Turkey.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 1:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/146 "2014-06-25T13:46:18Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> First order of business is gaining international support to destroy ISIS.

> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> First step could be to establish a corridor for ISF to move north toward Mosul and to western border.
> 
> Slowing ISIS freedom of movement is first step. After a few Hellfires light up those pickup trucks the non-suicidal terrorists begin to lose faith in their new masked prophet.

Well, there can only be one first step, so you need to make up your mind which it is.

So, we take sides with the Shiites and fight the Sunni? This is not just ISIS. This ISIS + Iraqi Sunni Arabs. Or are we siding with Assad to ensure he stays in power?

Your plan has all the earmarks of GWB’s misadventures in Iraq.

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**Author:** ![septimus](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/septimus/32/410_2.png) [@septimus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/septimus)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/147 "2014-06-25T14:12:11Z")

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I have no easy solution to propose, but …

> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> So, we take sides with the Shiites and fight the Sunni?..
> 
> Your plan has all the earmarks of GWB’s misadventures in Iraq.

This conflates acting to start a war with acting to stop a war. :smack:

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**Author:** ![Willcross](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b2d939/32.png) [@Willcross](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Willcross)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/148 "2014-06-25T14:18:14Z")

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Just an update, the Syrian airforce has bombed civilian markets in Iraq.

> **[Syrian warplanes reportedly strike in Iraq, killing 57 civilians | CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2014/06/25/world/meast/iraq-crisis/index.html?hpt=hp_c2)**
>
> At least 57 civilians were killed and more than 120 others were wounded by what local officials say were Syrian warplanes that struck Iraq’s Anbar province

What’s the thinking behind this? Right when I thought I was getting an understanding of the situation, this seems odd to me. Why choose now to kill Iraqi civilians? I could understand them doing targeted strikes against an ISIS convoy or something, but why this?

I don’t have much to add, other than reporting this to you guys, but I would love to hear your thoughts.

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**Author:** ![Human\_Action](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/ac91a4/32.png) [@Human\_Action](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Human_Action)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/149 "2014-06-25T14:35:03Z")

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> [@Willcross](#):
>
> What’s the thinking behind this? Right when I thought I was getting an understanding of the situation, this seems odd to me. Why choose now to kill Iraqi civilians? I could understand them doing targeted strikes against an ISIS convoy or something, but why this?

Attacks on rebel-friendly civilians are [a familiar tactic of the Assad regime](http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/09/11/syria-massacres_n_3905323.html), e.g. [Gouta](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ghouta_chemical_attack). Presumably the goal is to coerce civilians into abandoning support for ISIS. And, naturally, attacking a market is much easier than attacking soldiers/miltia, who a) move around a lot, and b) shoot back.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 2:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/150 "2014-06-25T14:56:01Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Small fly in the ointment: ISIL has not attacked Turkey.

[However:](http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_State_in_Iraq_and_the_Levant)

> [@](#):
>
> The **Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant** (alternatively translated as **Islamic State in Iraq and Syria** or **Islamic State in Iraq and al-Shām** ) (Arabic: الدولة الاسلامية في العراق والشام‎ ad-Dawlat al-Islāmīyah fī il-ʻIrāq wa-ash-Shām or Arabic: داعش‎ Dāʻish), abbreviated ISIL, ISIS or Daish, is an unrecognized state and active jihadist militant group in Iraq and Syria. In its self-proclaimed status as an independent state, it claims the territory of Iraq and Syria, with implied future claims over more of the Levant, including Lebanon, Israel, Palestine, Jordan, Cyprus, **and Southern Turkey.** [33][34]

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 3:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/151 "2014-06-25T15:58:38Z")

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Ooooh, “implied future claims” against a NATO member? Call in the airstrikes!

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 6:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/152 "2014-06-25T18:02:54Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> Well, there can only be one first step, so you need to make up your mind which it is.
> 
> So, we take sides with the Shiites and fight the Sunni? This is not just ISIS. This ISIS + Iraqi Sunni Arabs. Or are we siding with Assad to ensure he stays in power?
> 
> Your plan has all the earmarks of GWB’s misadventures in Iraq.

Not really. GWB’s totally \*\*Syrian government aircraft bombed Sunni militant targets inside Iraq on Tuesday, further broadening the Middle Eastern crisis a day after Israeli warplanes and rockets struck targets inside Syria.

\*\* adventure was launched when the UNSC had inspectors on the ground disarming Iraq very peacefully. There was essentially no sectarian violence anywhere inside Iraq and there was no al Qaeda or any terrorists operating in the Iraq that Hussein controlled.

Now the violence and terrorists are out of control. Its an entirely different situation that needs to be addressed.

We have not taken sides with the Shiites. In sure that when the US selects a target it will be ISIS. There are Sunnis that will resist ISIS on the ground just like they did with the Anbar Awakening in 2007.

If Maliki can be persuaded to step down that Sunni tribal pact with the ISIS devil could quite quickly dissolve.  
It appears that its the tribal leaders at Baiji running the show and will take over the refinery. An interesting development is that the tribal leaders negotiated the deal to provide passage to safety for 450 ISF in exchange for turning the plant over to them.

ISIS would have shot them in the head.

Interesting development to watch.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/153 "2014-06-25T18:30:42Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Ooooh, “implied future claims” against a NATO member? Call in the airstrikes!

Well, NATO won’t get into it for preemptive reasons – but Turkey might – and will, if they’re smart.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 10:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/154 "2014-06-25T22:10:53Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> Well, NATO won’t get into it for preemptive reasons – but Turkey might – and will, if they’re smart.

Doesn’t seem like a smart idea to me and flat out stupid to do it without NATO support. Since generally NOT being in a war is better than being in a war, I’d love to hear why you think Turkey unilaterally getting into it with ISIL is a good idea.

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**Author:** ![John\_Mace](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/john_mace/32/185_2.png) [@John\_Mace](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/John_Mace)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 10:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/155 "2014-06-25T22:21:08Z")

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> [@NotfooledbyW](#):
>
> Not really. GWB’s totally \*\*Syrian government aircraft bombed Sunni militant targets inside Iraq on Tuesday, further broadening the Middle Eastern crisis a day after Israeli warplanes and rockets struck targets inside Syria.
> 
> \*\* adventure was launched when the UNSC had inspectors on the ground disarming Iraq very peacefully. There was essentially no sectarian violence anywhere inside Iraq and there was no al Qaeda or any terrorists operating in the Iraq that Hussein controlled.
> 
> Now the violence and terrorists are out of control. Its an entirely different situation that needs to be addressed.

It does not “need to be addressed” by the US. Maliki is asking us to come and save his ass. I see no reason we should do that. You should listen to NPR’s _Fresh Air_ today. You will find it educational.

> [@](#):
>
> We have not taken sides with the Shiites. In sure that when the US selects a target it will be ISIS. There are Sunnis that will resist ISIS on the ground just like they did with the Anbar Awakening in 2007.

You are proposing that we take sides. The Sunnis may or may not choose to resist ISIS, but if they do, it will be at a time of their choosing, not ours.

> [@](#):
>
> If Maliki can be persuaded to step down that Sunni tribal pact with the ISIS devil could quite quickly dissolve.

You have no way of knowing that.

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**Author:** ![standingwave](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/9de0a6/32.png) [@standingwave](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/standingwave)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/156 "2014-06-25T22:57:22Z")

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The latest Common Sense podcast from Dan Carlin weighs in on recent events in Iraq from a historical point of view. Long story short he points out that this is possibly the beginnins of a three state solution. Posting from my phone so no link but google is your friend,

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**Author:** ![levdrakon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/49beb7/32.png) [@levdrakon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/levdrakon)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 11:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/157 "2014-06-25T23:03:23Z")

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A three state solution isn’t really news. Unless it actually happens.

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**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\
**Post date:** [June 25, 2014, 11:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/158 "2014-06-25T23:26:26Z")

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> [@CarnalK](#):
>
> Doesn’t seem like a smart idea to me and flat out stupid to do it without NATO support. Since generally NOT being in a war is better than being in a war, I’d love to hear why you think Turkey unilaterally getting into it with ISIL is a good idea.

So they won’t wind up with an actual established ISIS state on their border.

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**Author:** ![CarnalK](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/carnalk/32/486_2.png) [@CarnalK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CarnalK)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2014, 4:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/159 "2014-06-26T04:07:04Z")

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> [@BrainGlutton](#):
>
> So they won’t wind up with an actual established ISIS state on their border.

That’s a rather non-comprehensive response. You know that a large number of Syrian rebel groups dislike ISIL. They were given an ultimatum from the local al-qaida franchise to chill out or gtfo. Their local allies in Iraq will most certainly turn on them at some point. The Kurds will hold northern Iraq. Expand on how the Caliphate shall unfurl, if you please.

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**Author:** ![NotfooledbyW](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/f475e1/32.png) [@NotfooledbyW](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/NotfooledbyW)\
**Post date:** [June 26, 2014, 4:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-should-the-west-do-about-the-present-situation-in-iraq/690553/160 "2014-06-26T04:48:24Z")

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> [@John\_Mace](#):
>
> It does not “need to be addressed” by the US. Maliki is asking us to come and save his ass. I see no reason we should do that. .

That ship has already sailed. I trust the President of the United States knows why and how much this barbaric band of thieves and murderers needs to be addressed. Your seeing ‘no reason’ will have little to do with decisions he will make on this matter.  
Here’s a summary from ten days back that might help you to see what’s already going on:

> [@](#):
>
> Setting aside for the moment the question of whether this administration has the will to intervene again in Iraq, here are the components of a reasonable military package that can make a difference:
> 
> • Intelligence architecture. Iraq’s intel screens went blank after the U.S. military pulled out in 2011. Washington needs to restore Baghdad’s ability to access national, regional and local intelligence sources, enabling the Iraqi military to gain vital situational awareness.
> 
> • Planners and advisers. The Iraqi military needs planners to assist with the defense of Baghdad and the eventual counter-offensive to regain lost territory, as well as advisers down to division level where units are still viable.
> 
> • Counterterrorism. Special operations forces should be employed clandestinely to attack high value ISIS targets and leaders in Iraq and Syria.
> 
> • Air power. Air power alone cannot win a war, but it can significantly diminish enemy forces and, when used in coordination with ground forces, can exponentially increase the odds of success.
> 
> SIS has made extraordinary progress in recent weeks in Iraq and controls large swaths of territory in northern Syria. But its forces are not impregnable and their tactics are not terribly complicated. ISIS has progressed via two main routes in Iraq, traveling during the day in columns. Its forces and staging areas are exposed targets—but the Iraqis have very limited air power.

> **[Military Package for U.S. Counteroffensive Against #ISIS in Iraq](https://americanpowerblog.blogspot.com/2014/06/military-package-for-us.html?m=1)**
>
> Following-up from earlier, " Iraq Expert Danielle Pletka Beats Back Leftist Talking Points on 'Crossfire' ." See Jack Keane and Danielle P...

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