You* didn’t* read the OP, did you? Otherwise you would surely have seen this.
Sound like a call for intervention?
I am far from an expert in the region, but it seems to me the best play for the West, and Turkey in particular, is to support Kurdistan as strongly as possible. That would include supporting it’s take over of Kirkuk since that seems the surest way to a stable government controlling a big chunk of the oil supply.
I’m completely confused and torn as to what to do about Iraq.
Bush, Cheney and the rest of the neocon fucks along with Blair sleep comfortably in their satin sheets though. They should be on trial for lying to their countries and creating the environment that all this could happen in. Iraq was never about 9/11 and weapons of mass destruction. They knew it and used 9/11 to get what they wanted. Nothing that is done to them now will help Iraq in any way but IMHO a precedent should be made so future leaders do not play so lose with the truth when lives and treasure can be wasted so blatantly.
The absolute very last thing Turkey wants or Iran wants is Kurdistan. Turkey sends planes periodically to bomb stuff in Kurdistan Iraq.
Because ‘Kurdistan’ encompasses parts of what they consider theirs. Also they don’t want to have their own Kurdish minorities getting uppity after being successfully stamping them down for decades.
A stable oil rich Kurdistan is what turkish and Iranian nightmares are made of.
Other than nobody liking Kurds, which is nothing new, are there any other reasons there shouldn’t be a stable Kurdistan? The BBC article I just read said that area is more stable and prosperous than the rest of Iraq.
Because Kurdistan encompasses parts of Iran, Syria and Turkey. Parts that have substantial minorities that want to be part of ‘Kurdistan’. Especially an oil rich Kurdistan.
Without going to the trouble of moving.
You don’t see why Turkey and Iran aren’t that keen?
Well, I’m not interested in what Iran and Turkey are “keen” on, so much. Are Kurds bad people? Kurds have been doing business (oil at least) with Turkey.
Yes. An ethnic cleansing of Kurdistan, or even outright genocide there, are more likely than Turkey, Syria, or Iran supporting the Kurds.
As I opened my internet browser, I was greeted with a Breaking News banner that said "Obama tells Iraqi leaders to ‘Solve their own problems.’ "
So I guess Obama’s going to light up a cigarette and watch Iraq burn. Maybe it’s for the best; the world was getting so boring without an Islamist terrorist-state around to launch attacks against us.
Ok, does ISIS try and move into Baghdad or not? Opinions?
I’m sure that is eventually in the plans, but the other thing you have to understand here is that the further south they go, the greater the population of Shia becomes. To me (looking at this map) and dredging up my half remembered facts on Iraq, they have done best in the parts of both Syria and Iraq that have the largest amount of Sunni populations (makes sense if I’m remembering correctly). Baghdad is right on the border of where the population shift really kicks in, and I don’t think that ISIS is going to do nearly as well in those areas, since I seriously doubt the local population will be behind them nearly so much. Also, as ISIS threatens Baghdad itself I imagine Iran will send even more support (I think they have already sent some), and local Shia militia groups will be mobilized as well I imagine.
Unfortunately you have to take them into account, since they would be REALLY opposed to a formal Kurdistan. I was being flip in my first post when I said I was the king, so fuck em, since from a practical perspective you can’t just disregard how they feel about this. Basically, there is a real possibility that Turkey and/or Iran could start a cross border shooting war with the new Kurdistan if it was formed, since one of the things Kurdistan MIGHT do (or be perceived to do or projected to do by the two countries) is to try and expand into the Kurdish regions of both nations (that’s what they are afraid of anyway). It could get really ugly, especially if the Kurdish groups in those countries start actively trying to do this (and they probably would, even if this theoretical Kurdistan promised and crossed their hearts that THEY wouldn’t push for it).
What’s stopping Iraqi Kurdistan from simply declaring independence now? They’ve effectively had it ever since the imposition of the no-fly zones, anyway. Have their leaders been continuously but quietly advised to be happy with that or have to deal with direct Turkish and Iranian repression?
I think some of the Turkish leadership is willing to put the conflicts on the back burner.
Some kind of real peace has to be hammered out but this would be best long term, not a nightmare at all for Turkey. Iran, maybe.
We are stopping them from doing so (or we were when we were in there). The US pretty much put the kibosh on it. Not sure what’s stopping them today…this would be their golden opportunity to do so, but my WAG is it’s still us telling them that they better not or else (something)…
Sure. A reasonably-friendly and stable independent Kurdistan as a neighbor would make a valuable buffer between Turkey and the madness further south, as well as helping quell unrest in its own Kurdish area. And I can’t see Iran wanting a military involvement in Iraq - a strong-enough Iranian military would be a competing power center for the mullahs.
I’m not sure an independent Kurdistan that did NOT include the Kurds of Turkey would quell unrest in Turkey. Wouldn’t it more likely stir unrest as they would want to be part of Kurdistan, too? Not unlike what we’re seeing in Ukraine after Russia annexed Crimea.
Anyway, I’m not expert on this, but I think it’s a lot more complicated. The Kurds did a pretty good job last time around in keeping the civil war or almost civil war out of that region-- I’m talking about 2006/2007. I’m just not seeing Turkey being in favor of an independent Kurdistan cut out of Iraq unless perhaps it was the only way of preventing the next civil war from spilling over into Turkey.
More importantly perhaps is that Turkey can make a boatload of money.
Be careful. The Kurds might take this opportunity to declare independence. And then does the U.S. recognize their independence? That would piss off the Iranians, but it would also piss off the Turks and we need the Turks on our side. (OTOH, it would probably not piss off other Iraqis all that much.) What’s more, the new State of Kurdistan might decide to take advantage of the chaos in Syria by annexing the Kurdish bit in the northeast corner of the country – and then, do we recognize that as well?
Istm that with the chaos in Iraq formally declaring independence is unnecessary. They are already making bilateral agreements with Turkey bypassing Baghdad. Trade between Turkey and Kurdistan is over 8 billion already.
Be a bit like Taiwan and China really if they keep it informal, I guess.