# What Signals The Bottom of the Real Estate Market? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [March 8, 2008, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542 "2008-03-08T00:37:55Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 18\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![ralph124c](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/8797f3/32.png) [@ralph124c](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ralph124c)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 12:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/1 "2008-03-08T00:37:55Z")
I would like to buy some property-and I’m thinking that the bottom of the market is at ahnd. What are the classic signs that things have bottomed out? I believe that the cost of gasoline will have a huge effect on real estate values - I will not invest in properies that are far away from the city centers (these will be nlivable, when gasoline gets over $4/.00/gallon. Meanwhile, what are the signs that signal that the worst is over? ---
**Author:** ![Phlosphr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/c68b51/32.png) [@Phlosphr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Phlosphr)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 12:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/2 "2008-03-08T00:47:58Z")
Well, we’re close now but not quite there. I live in Conencticut, and my neighbor’s $750,000 waterfront property with a dock just sold for $430,000 to an investment trust in Illinois. They’ll hold onto it for a few years and sell it for a million two… My wife and I actually thought about it, but I don’t want to add another mortgage right now. The signs you are asking for are all around us. The forclosure rate just went higher than new houses being bought - two weeks ago. That’s a BIG sign with bright flourescent orange lettering. Pull back on sub-prime lending, gov’t freezing interest rates they are all signs. Like I said, I don’t think it’s hit rock bottom yet. ---
**Author:** ![Dinsdale](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/97f17d/32.png) [@Dinsdale](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dinsdale)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 1:14am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/3 "2008-03-08T01:14:26Z")
I’d say you can wait a little over a year, when I put my house on the market. Bet things pretty much bottomw out right about then! 😉 ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 5:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/4 "2008-03-08T17:19:53Z")
[http://www.realquest.com/rq/default.aspx#](http://www.realquest.com/rq/default.aspx#) Keep your eyes on this and don’t hold your breath. ---
**Author:** ![Sam\_Stone](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ecccb3/32.png) [@Sam\_Stone](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sam_Stone)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 6:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/5 "2008-03-08T18:01:03Z")
A typical signal of a bottom is when real estate inventories start to decline. Growing inventories of houses is a leading indicator of a price drop, and shrinking inventories a leading indicator of price increases. ---
**Author:** ![Annie-Xmas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ecc23a/32.png) [@Annie-Xmas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Annie-Xmas)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 6:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/6 "2008-03-08T18:04:24Z")
In my neck of the woods real estate seems to be doing better. Since we usually run about six months ahead of economic trends, I’m hoping it’s a good sign. ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/7 "2008-03-08T19:01:50Z")
Come to Michigan and say its getting better. It is expected for increasing mortgage failures for the next 4 quarters. ---
**Author:** ![Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/e36b37/32.png) [@Airman\_Doors\_USAF](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Airman_Doors_USAF)\ **Post date:** [March 8, 2008, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/8 "2008-03-08T19:05:29Z")
When I post about the house I just bought you’ll know, because if my broke ass can afford a house, anybody can. ---
**Author:** ![Bryan\_Ekers](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bryan_ekers/32/183_2.png) [@Bryan\_Ekers](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bryan_Ekers)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 6:28am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/9 "2008-03-10T06:28:54Z")
[QUOTE=Airman Doors, USAF] When I post about the house I just bought you’ll know, because if my broke ass can afford a house, anybody can. [/QUOTE] Well, it turned out a whole lot of people could _get_ houses. They just couldn’t _keep_ them. ---
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 1:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/10 "2008-03-10T13:52:28Z")
It’s interesting to me to read these threads of doom, because I may have missed it, but personally I haven’t seen any signs of a declining real estate market around Dallas. On the other hand, we didn’t see the bubble that other areas saw either. Our prices have just been flat, which suits me just fine. I’ve been a homeowner in the area since 1985, and the biggest value increase I’ve seen is the house I owned from 1991 to 2001, which went up in value by 20% in those ten years. Woo-hoo! Two percent a year! ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 10, 2008, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/11 "2008-03-10T15:45:34Z")
[QUOTE=CurtC] It’s interesting to me to read these threads of doom, because I may have missed it, but personally I haven’t seen any signs of a declining real estate market around Dallas. On the other hand, we didn’t see the bubble that other areas saw either. Our prices have just been flat, which suits me just fine. I’ve been a homeowner in the area since 1985, and the biggest value increase I’ve seen is the house I owned from 1991 to 2001, which went up in value by 20% in those ten years. Woo-hoo! Two percent a year! [/QUOTE] Check out realquest in response #4. That will show 500 foreclosures in Dallas. ---
**Author:** ![CurtC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/ce73a5/32.png) [@CurtC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CurtC)\ **Post date:** [March 12, 2008, 9:53pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/12 "2008-03-12T21:53:44Z")
[QUOTE=gonzomax] Check out realquest in response #4. That will show 500 foreclosures in Dallas. [/QUOTE] I don’t know if 500 foreclosures is historically high, but here are headlines from three articles in the local paper: “Economist: Dallas-Fort Worth home prices to hold steady despite U.S. decline” “New report shows Dallas-area home prices remain flat” “In Dallas-Fort Worth market, no flood of homes for sale” The second article says: > [@](#): > > In the last three months, overall listing prices fell 1.6 percent in the national survey. But in the Dallas area, list prices rose 0.7 percent. … ---
**Author:** ![AskNott](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asknott/32/5790_2.png) [@AskNott](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AskNott)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 4:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/13 "2008-03-13T16:35:36Z")
Three months after the Bottom, you’ll hear the sound of a million real-estate hotshots smacking their foreheads :smack: and crying out, “Damn! I missed it!” You may feel a great disturbance in the force. Trying to grab a bottom is a tricky business, fraught with peril. If you can afford to sit on a mistake for a while, until the moment comes, you’ll come out smelling like a genius. 😃 If you can’t, maybe you should sit tight. ---
**Author:** ![Desert\_Nomad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/desert_nomad/32/177_2.png) [@Desert\_Nomad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Desert_Nomad)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 5:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/14 "2008-03-13T17:27:34Z")
Hmm… with Gold hitting $1000, record lows for the USD, record highs for oil, an election year, I don’t think the bottom is near yet. If civil war breaks out, you’ll know it’s the bottom. ---
**Author:** ![Spoke](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a88e57/32.png) [@Spoke](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Spoke)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 5:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/15 "2008-03-13T17:40:21Z")
[Foreclosures jump again](http://abcnews.go.com/Business/Economy/wireStory?id=4442812) (February foreclosures are up 60% over February 2007). ---
**Author:** ![Sal\_Ammoniac](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/8dc957/32.png) [@Sal\_Ammoniac](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sal_Ammoniac)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 5:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/16 "2008-03-13T17:43:56Z")
The thing is, it’s senseless to talk about “the real estate market” as if it were the whole of the U.S. People need to think about their _own_ real estate market. Here’s a hint: it’s smaller than a county. ---
**Author:** ![Parthol](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/dec6dc/32.png) [@Parthol](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Parthol)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 6:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/17 "2008-03-13T18:50:49Z")
[QUOTE=AskNott] …Trying to grab a bottom is a tricky business, fraught with peril. .. [/QUOTE] I’ll say… every time I try it, she slaps me! 😃 I agree with **Sam** – looking at inventories is a decent way to get a general sense of things. And I also agree with **Sal** – look at _local_ inventories. -P ---
**Author:** ![gonzomax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/e8c25b/32.png) [@gonzomax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/gonzomax)\ **Post date:** [March 13, 2008, 8:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-signals-the-bottom-of-the-real-estate-market/440542/18 "2008-03-13T20:10:36Z")
The question was not has the real estate crisis bottomed out in your neighborhood.