# What sort of major outside/random event could completely change the race? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 26, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892 "2012-09-26T15:44:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/1 "2012-09-26T15:44:30Z")
Like the economic collapse did in 2008 (although one could argue that it didn’t necessarily change the _result_). A lot of people say a Euro collapse. But would it have a huge an impact as the domestic economic troubles did, and can it be successfully “blamed” on the current President? ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 4:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/2 "2012-09-26T16:44:59Z")
Israel attacking Iran’s nuclear facilities, with or without US support. Might not change the result of the election, but the reactions of both Obama and Romney would be critical to their electoral success. If Obama can be a statesman, and walk the fine line between commander in chief/tough guy and peacemaker… he wins even more decisively. It would be challenging for Romney to criticize, unless Obama really fumbles the ball. ---
**Author:** ![ads95](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/5daacb/32.png) [@ads95](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ads95)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/3 "2012-09-26T17:09:53Z")
An assassination attempt on the President or on Governor Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:15pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/4 "2012-09-26T17:15:42Z")
Meteorite impact that consumes one or more candidates with a searing flash and thunderous shockwave. What? **Leaper** did say “random”. ---
**Author:** ![The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/74df32/32.png) [@The\_Devil\_s\_Grandmother](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/The_Devil_s_Grandmother)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/5 "2012-09-26T17:52:37Z")
A nuclear plant malfunction changed the outcome of the final election on the TV show _West Wing_. I can imagine a disaster like that changing a real life election as well. Everybody seems so entrenched this electoral cycle, I think it would take a more-than-one-state-wide disaster to change things. Europe collapsing into anarchy might do it. ---
**Author:** ![Trion](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ccd318/32.png) [@Trion](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Trion)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/6 "2012-09-26T17:56:22Z")
The proverbial undead hermaphrodite. ---
**Author:** ![bup](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/6bbea6/32.png) [@bup](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/bup)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 6:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/7 "2012-09-26T18:48:28Z")
> [@Trion](#): > > The proverbial undead hermaphrodite. I like that. We’re at the point where a dead girl \*OR \*a live boy won’t even swing the election - the candidate’s conquest must be both a dead girl \*AND \*a live boy. ---
**Author:** ![CalMeacham](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/calmeacham/32/35_2.png) [@CalMeacham](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/CalMeacham)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 7:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/8 "2012-09-26T19:05:11Z")
“Earthlings, we come in peace from Kolob!” ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 7:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/9 "2012-09-26T19:10:39Z")
> [@Leaper](#): > > A lot of people say a Euro collapse. But would it have a huge an impact as the domestic economic troubles did, and can it be successfully “blamed” on the current President? I think we’re leaving the time-period when a Euro collapse could really effect the election. It takes time for people to internalize and feel the effects of a bad economic turn, and if it happened today, I’m not sure it would show up in peoples voting behaviour by November 6th. Also, while people would eventually blame the Prez for a bad economy regardless of the cause, a Euro collapse would be so obviously outside his control that I think it would take longer then two months for people to get there. So again, the window for a Euro-crisis to change the electoral math before the election is probably pretty close to closed. ---
**Author:** ![chappachula](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/d2c977/32.png) [@chappachula](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/chappachula)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 7:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/10 "2012-09-26T19:16:06Z")
> [@CalMeacham](#): > > “Earthlings, we come in peace from Kolob!” “And we have brought Obama’s _real_ birth certificate” (thank you. now please hit: [www.instantRimshot.com](http://www.instantRimshot.com) ) ---
**Author:** ![Balance](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Balance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Balance)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 7:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/11 "2012-09-26T19:22:07Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I like that. We’re at the point where a dead girl \*OR \*a live boy won’t even swing the election - the candidate’s conquest must be both a dead girl \*AND \*a live boy. Schrödinger’s Prostitute. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/12 "2012-09-26T21:17:33Z")
I’d say a major financial crisis could do it. A financial crisis was a major factor in the 2008 election. And right or wrong, it would help Romney’s chances. One of the ongoing themes of his campaign is that the Obama administration hasn’t handled the economy as well as a Romney administration would. A crisis right before the election would cause some people to believe him. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/13 "2012-09-26T21:29:28Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I’d say a major financial crisis could do it. A financial crisis was a major factor in the 2008 election. And right or wrong, it would help Romney’s chances. One of the ongoing themes of his campaign is that the Obama administration hasn’t handled the economy as well as a Romney administration would. A crisis right before the election would cause some people to believe him. Again, it takes time for a financial crisis to flow through. The employment numbers started to drop in December 2007, and were in total free-fall by November 2008. You’d have to have such a crisis that it would be pretty much immediately felt. ---
**Author:** ![YogSothoth](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/y/8edcca/32.png) [@YogSothoth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/YogSothoth)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/14 "2012-09-26T21:34:24Z")
I came in here to say the Israel thing. Depending on who you believe, they’re really close or not at all likely to attack Iran. Bibi obviously wants to, but most of his cabinet, at least according to a recent Newsweek story, isn’t in the mood to piss off the Americans even if they agree with his underlying premise that Iran needs to be attacked before they move their nuke operations underground to some new, untouchable facility. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/15 "2012-09-26T21:35:04Z")
> [@bup](#): > > I like that. We’re at the point where a dead girl \*OR \*a live boy won’t even swing the election - the candidate’s conquest must be both a dead girl \*AND \*a live boy. Even a live boy isn’t enough anymore, as long as he’s of legal age. ---
**Author:** ![LinusK](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/258eb7/32.png) [@LinusK](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/LinusK)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/16 "2012-09-26T21:47:29Z")
A foreign policy disaster, which plausibly appears to be Obama’s fault. Say an embassy going down, with lots of hostages, for example. A scandal. Obama’s gay lover discovered, for example. Another financial panic. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/17 "2012-09-26T21:48:32Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Even a live boy isn’t enough anymore, as long as he’s of legal age. I have to question that. Are you really saying that if some young man - let’s say 30 to eliminate any age issues - stepped forward with convincing evidence that he’d had an affair with Obama, you don’t think it would effect the election? ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 9:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/18 "2012-09-26T21:57:51Z")
If Obama endorsed Romney, that might change things. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 26, 2012, 10:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/19 "2012-09-26T22:42:53Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > If Obama endorsed Romney, that might change things. Or it might alienate the “Anyone-but-Obama” voters in Romney’s shrinking base. ---
**Author:** ![Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Tapioca\_Dextrin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapioca_Dextrin)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/20 "2012-09-27T00:17:08Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > A scandal. Obama’s gay lover discovered, for example. Or Romney’s three secret husbands. Just to be fair and balanced. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892.md?page=2)