# What sort of major outside/random event could completely change the race? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [September 26, 2012, 3:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892 "2012-09-26T15:44:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 12:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/21 "2012-09-27T00:33:21Z")
> [@LinusK](#): > > A foreign policy disaster, which plausibly appears to be Obama’s fault. Say an embassy going down, with lots of hostages, for example. Maybe, but again, we’re so close to the election that I think the “rally around the President” reaction most people have to foreign disasters wouldn’t have time to disappate before Nov 6th. Of course, it matters just how blatantly it was Obama’s fault. I’m sure there some level of obvious culpability that would kill the aforementioned rally. But it would need to be pretty plain and obvious that it was an Obama screw-up. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 12:43am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/22 "2012-09-27T00:43:37Z")
> [@Simplicio](#): > > Maybe, but again, we’re so close to the election that I think the “rally around the President” reaction most people have to foreign disasters wouldn’t have time to disappate before Nov 6th. Of course, it matters just how blatantly it was Obama’s fault. I’m sure there some level of obvious culpability that would kill the aforementioned rally. But it would need to be pretty plain and obvious that it was an Obama screw-up. There’s also the factor that Obama has shown he’s pretty strong on national security. And Romney has mostly a domestic issues background. I wouldn’t assume that a foreign crisis would turn voters from Obama to Romney. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 12:48am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/23 "2012-09-27T00:48:41Z")
Romney could have a revelation that requires him to tell the truth. As a moderate Progressive he has a record, and he could be himself. Crane ---
**Author:** ![Damuri\_Ajashi](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/898d66/32.png) [@Damuri\_Ajashi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Damuri_Ajashi)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 5:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/24 "2012-09-27T17:37:56Z")
> [@ElvisL1ves](#): > > Even a live boy isn’t enough anymore, as long as he’s of legal age. What if the live boy was discovered with Michelle and Barack? ---
**Author:** ![42fish](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/4/b487fb/32.png) [@42fish](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/42fish)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 5:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/25 "2012-09-27T17:46:58Z")
‘Barack Obama’ removes his makeup to reveal that he’s actually Ashton Kutcher, having completed the most ambitious ‘Punk’d’ yet. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [September 27, 2012, 6:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/26 "2012-09-27T18:09:55Z")
Something in Afghanistan. The Dems killed Bush/McCain with the war in Iraq but Iraq/Afghanistan seems to have slipped from the nations conciousness and the Pubbies are not about to claim Obama should have pulled us out. If there is something that happens in Afghanistan whether related to the war or not (like an earthquake) the voters are going to say, “Remind me again why we are still there.” ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [September 28, 2012, 1:00am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/27 "2012-09-28T01:00:15Z")
A major natural disaster occurring and Obama really botching how he deals with it could rebound on him like Katrina with Bush. A terrorist attack could cause a shift in the election, depending on how each side handled it. Especially if it’s a domestic terror group that favors one side, and announces that’s why it’s attacking. “Pro Romney faction attempts assassination of Obama, three Secret Service members killed” wouldn’t do the Romney campaign any good at all. > [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I have to question that. Are you really saying that if some young man - let’s say 30 to eliminate any age issues - stepped forward with convincing evidence that he’d had an affair with Obama, you don’t think it would effect the election? Not much. Most of the people who’d really care aren’t going to vote for Obama under any circumstances. If the same happened to Romney though it would be huge; it’s an inherent weakness in belonging to a party full of homophobes, and one that constantly tries to preach “sexual morality” at people. ---
**Author:** ![Crane](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crane/32/3495_2.png) [@Crane](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Crane)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2012, 10:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/28 "2012-09-30T22:45:15Z")
How about (gasp) Gary Johnson? Crane ---
**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2012, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/29 "2012-09-30T22:57:55Z")
> [@Crane](#): > > How about (gasp) Gary Johnson? > > Crane Not sure he counts as an “event”. But in anycase, in polls ask voters to choose between Romny/Obama and the to chose between Romney/Obama/Johnson, almost all of Johnson’s single digit of support came from Romney and undecided voters. Given Romney’s losing anyways, it doesn’t seem likely Johnson will change the result of the election any, even if he does unexpectedly well. (Johnson also has 25% name recognition a month before the election, which doesn’t exactly bode well for him capturing much of the vote). ---
**Author:** ![BrainGlutton](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/82dd89/32.png) [@BrainGlutton](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BrainGlutton)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2012, 11:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/30 "2012-09-30T23:23:50Z")
An extinction-level event asteroid strike or global seismic catastrophe. Those always seem to happen when a black president is in office. ---
**Author:** ![Nawth\_Chucka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/c57346/32.png) [@Nawth\_Chucka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Nawth_Chucka)\ **Post date:** [September 30, 2012, 11:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/31 "2012-09-30T23:46:38Z")
If the Presidency or Quorum of the Mormon Church burst into the daily news cycle in some outrageous way, perhaps by publicly announcing their prophesy that Romney intends to ask each American to consider the LDS theology. He’d have to address it in some way, either agreeing, denying or vacillating; it would sustain itself for a few days, during which he’d lose any evangelical and Jewish vote he might have had. ---
**Author:** ![Ann\_Hedonia](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ann_hedonia/32/319_2.png) [@Ann\_Hedonia](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ann_Hedonia)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 3:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/32 "2012-10-01T15:06:34Z")
> [@Nawth\_Chucka](#): > > If the Presidency or Quorum of the Mormon Church burst into the daily news cycle in some outrageous way, perhaps by publicly announcing their prophesy that Romney intends to ask each American to consider the LDS theology. He’d have to address it in some way, either agreeing, denying or vacillating; it would sustain itself for a few days, during which he’d lose any evangelical and Jewish vote he might have had. I keep hoping Romney will step up and introduce his other wives to the American public, ala Big Love. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 8:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/33 "2012-10-01T20:57:52Z")
> [@Little\_Nemo](#): > > I have to question that. Are you really saying that if some young man - let’s say 30 to eliminate any age issues - stepped forward with convincing evidence that he’d had an affair with Obama, you don’t think it would effect the election? It wouldn’t automatically kill it, the way it would have a generation or two ago, no. A dead girl still probably would do it, though. ---
**Author:** ![rogerbox](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/r/76d3ee/32.png) [@rogerbox](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/rogerbox)\ **Post date:** [October 1, 2012, 11:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/34 "2012-10-01T23:09:41Z")
Guy with muslim headdressing pulls long curvy stereotypically muslim knife and charges at Mitt Romney while screaming “DEATH TO THE AMERICAN PIG-DOGS!” on national television. Romney: “Not on my watch, fella!” while throwing a stereotypically 50’s American straight right to the jaw. _THWOK!_ That is the only way. ---
**Author:** ![Leaper](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/4bbf92/32.png) [@Leaper](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Leaper)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 10:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/35 "2012-10-03T22:04:17Z")
[Online article I ran across running down some possibles.](http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2012/10/03/benghazi-backlash-mideast-implosion-jobless-numbers-the-real-potential-october-surprises.html) (The general tone of the article seems to me anti-Obama, but whether or not it makes good points regardless is a matter for this thread.) ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 10:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/36 "2012-10-03T22:51:07Z")
> [@rogerbox](#): > > Guy with muslim headdressing pulls long curvy stereotypically muslim knife and charges at Mitt Romney while screaming “DEATH TO THE AMERICAN PIG-DOGS!” on national television. > > Romney: “Not on my watch, fella!” while throwing a stereotypically 50’s American straight right to the jaw. _THWOK!_ Obama of course would do the Indiana-Jones-and-the-swordsman thing. I can see it now: _\_ Stereotypical Muslim fanatic: “DEATH TO THE AMERICAN PIG-DOGS!” _\_ ---
**Author:** ![Gangster\_Octopus](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/a8b319/32.png) [@Gangster\_Octopus](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gangster_Octopus)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 10:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/37 "2012-10-03T22:57:57Z")
> [@Der\_Trihs](#): > > Obama of course would do the Indiana-Jones-and-the-swordsman thing. I can see it now: > _\_ > > Stereotypical Muslim fanatic: “DEATH TO THE AMERICAN PIG-DOGS!” > > _\_ Harrumph, Obama would be cowering behind his podium and apologizing to the fanatic…think some of my Facebook friends. ---
**Author:** ![Arnold\_Winkelried](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/3d9bf3/32.png) [@Arnold\_Winkelried](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Arnold_Winkelried)\ **Post date:** [October 3, 2012, 11:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/38 "2012-10-03T23:51:51Z")
> [@ads95](#): > > An assassination attempt on the President or on Governor Romney. A _successful_ assassination attempt on either would definitely affect the race. I’ll go so far as to predict that a successful assassination attempt on either would, at this late stage, guarantee an automatic win for his opponent. Note to Secret Service: I am in no way advocating violence against Mr. Obama and/or Mr. Romney, and would severly condemn any attempts on their physical well-being. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 12:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/39 "2012-10-04T00:51:12Z")
> [@Gangster\_Octopus](#): > > Harrumph, Obama would be cowering behind his podium and apologizing to the fanatic…think some of my Facebook friends. Apologized bin Laden pretty good, didn’t he? ---
**Author:** ![Der\_Trihs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/der_trihs/32/233_2.png) [@Der\_Trihs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Der_Trihs)\ **Post date:** [October 4, 2012, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892/40 "2012-10-04T02:58:18Z")
> [@Arnold\_Winkelried](#): > > A _successful_ assassination attempt on either would definitely affect the race. I’ll go so far as to predict that a successful assassination attempt on either would, at this late stage, guarantee an automatic win for his opponent. I don’t know; Dead!Romney might get more votes since he wouldn’t be smirking as much. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-sort-of-major-outside-random-event-could-completely-change-the-race/635892.md?page=3)