# What state result would confirm for you that the election is decided? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 6, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086 "2012-11-06T15:17:03Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/1 "2012-11-06T15:17:03Z")
So as we are crushing beers and watching the returns filter in tonight, what state won bye each candidate would satisfy you that it’s game over. Never mind when 270 is officially announced. What is the earliest state that would confirm in your mind that a particular candidate won? Further, let’s stay within the bounds of reality. If as soon as the polls close in New York, Romney is projected the winner, obviously all bets are off. My picks: Obama wins: Florida or Virginia. Either of those three shows that it’s not Romney’s night and his other meager paths to victory won’t pan out. Romney wins: Ohio. It will show a lift in the polls that gets him the other swing states he needs. ---
**Author:** ![Jman](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jman/32/4416_2.png) [@Jman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jman)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/2 "2012-11-06T15:18:11Z")
If Pennsylvania is truly safe, then if Ohio goes for Obama, it’s his. Romney can win Ohio and still easily lose, so there’s no one state that he’d get that would be a lock for him. ---
**Author:** ![Skammer](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/skammer/32/143_2.png) [@Skammer](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Skammer)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:21pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/3 "2012-11-06T15:21:44Z")
If Virginia or Florida go for Obama, I’ll consider the election a done deal, because I don’t see him winning there but losing PA and OH. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/4 "2012-11-06T15:25:46Z")
Ohio for Obama will convince me he’s won. I can’t think of one state alone that would make me think Romney had won, as he’d have to win such a tortuous combination even if he bagged Ohio. ---
**Author:** ![Acsenray](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/acsenray/32/4519_2.png) [@Acsenray](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Acsenray)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:35pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/5 "2012-11-06T15:35:29Z")
If Obama wins Ohio, he has 269 so far as I’m concerned and needs only one more. ---
**Author:** ![Tom\_Scud](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/f08c70/32.png) [@Tom\_Scud](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tom_Scud)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/6 "2012-11-06T15:38:14Z")
PA for Romney would indicate that the polling is way off and he’s probably cruising to a win. Ohio or Florida for Obama and the night is over. ---
**Author:** ![Munch](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/munch/32/5281_2.png) [@Munch](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Munch)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:38pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/7 "2012-11-06T15:38:29Z")
> [@](#): > > Obama wins: Florida or Virginia. Either of those three shows that it’s not Romney’s night and his other meager paths to victory won’t pan out. > > Romney wins: Ohio. It will show a lift in the polls that gets him the other swing states he needs. I agree with this. I’ll also throw in Pennsylvania for Romney, as there seem to still be some pundits out there thinking that can happen. If it does, it’ll signal a massive failure of the polls. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/8 "2012-11-06T15:39:47Z")
Virginia will be the first of the swing states to give us any results so however that goes will be a good indicator of what the night may be like. After that Ohio or Florida are likely to be the clinchers. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/9 "2012-11-06T15:40:42Z")
> [@Siam\_Sam](#): > > I can’t think of one state alone that would make me think Romney had won, as he’d have to win such a tortuous combination even if he bagged Ohio. It’s not really tortuous. If Romney wins Ohio, I can’t imagine him losing VA or FL. Likewise I can’t imagine him not picking up at least one of Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, or New Hampshire. I believe that puts him over the top. ---
**Author:** ![Siam\_Sam](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/d78d45/32.png) [@Siam\_Sam](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Siam_Sam)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 3:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/10 "2012-11-06T15:42:29Z")
> [@jtgain](#): > > It’s not really tortuous. If Romney wins Ohio, I can’t imagine him losing VA or FL. Likewise I can’t imagine him not picking up at least one of Iowa, Colorado, Nevada, or New Hampshire. I believe that puts him over the top. Don’t tell me these things. ☹ ---
**Author:** ![Uncle\_Jocko](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/uncle_jocko/32/2932_2.png) [@Uncle\_Jocko](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Uncle_Jocko)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/11 "2012-11-06T16:36:02Z")
I say the OP pretty much hit it on the head. I’ve been saying for quite a while that Romney can’t win without the trifecta of Virginia, Florida and Ohio (of course, he’d still need another swing state to put him over 270, but if he did well enough to take all three of those, he will probably pick up another state like Colorado or New Hampshire as well). So if Obama takes any one of Virginia, Florida or Ohio, I say the election is in the bag. I know Republicans have been pointing to Pennsylvania as a backdoor to get to 270. I don’t see it. They say that every election, and every election, they lose PA. Therefore, if Romney wins PA, as mentioned above, the polling has been drastically wrong and the Mittster is cruising to victory. ---
**Author:** ![Drain\_Bead](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e47774/32.png) [@Drain\_Bead](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Drain_Bead)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/12 "2012-11-06T16:40:37Z")
If Obama wins Florida, it’s all over. ---
**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/13 "2012-11-06T16:48:16Z")
> [@Uncle\_Jocko](#): > > I know Republicans have been pointing to Pennsylvania as a backdoor to get to 270. I don’t see it. They say that every election, and every election, they lose PA. Therefore, if Romney wins PA, as mentioned above, the polling has been drastically wrong and the Mittster is cruising to victory. I agree that PA is fools gold for the GOP. Reagan “only” won there by 7 points in an 18 point landslide. It was one of the closer states. Dukakis only lost PA by 2. The only thing that could help Romney are the Dems in the western PA coal country who will support him. But they don’t have the numbers to overcome Philly and Pittsburgh. I think Romney has a better chance in Wisconsin, and to a lesser extent Michigan than he does in PA. But again, if he wins either of those states, he simply rolls nationwide because the polling was terribly wrong. ---
**Author:** ![DMark](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/e68b1a/32.png) [@DMark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DMark)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 4:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/14 "2012-11-06T16:56:25Z")
Florida - although I am hopeful but dubious Obama will win there, and I further doubt they can get their act together and finish counting this month, but should they actually declare Florida for Obama I could probably just go to bed and rest easily. ---
**Author:** ![Happy\_Lendervedder](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/happy_lendervedder/32/8488_2.png) [@Happy\_Lendervedder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Happy_Lendervedder)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/15 "2012-11-06T17:01:44Z")
If VA, OH or CO gets called for Obama, he’s won. If PA or WI gets called for Romney, he’s looking good, but I wouldn’t call it a victory yet. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/16 "2012-11-06T17:42:57Z")
I’m not that confident. I think Obama needs more than one swing state to call it a lock. Virginia, Ohio, N.Carolina and Florida all close by 8:00 p.m. Give Obama any two and it’s over. Romney will need three out of those four, plus two of the states that close at 9:00: Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota and Wisconsin. ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/17 "2012-11-06T17:45:01Z")
FL If it goes for Obama, OH if it goes for Obama and FL didn’t, PA if it goes for Romney. ---
**Author:** ![BlueOhio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/439d5e/32.png) [@BlueOhio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BlueOhio)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/18 "2012-11-06T17:45:52Z")
But what about the whole issue of ‘calling’ a state? Who gets to do it? Quite possible one network calls a state while the rest will be content to wait a while longer, so it adds another level of discomfort, imo. ---
**Author:** ![Marley23](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/45deac/32.png) [@Marley23](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Marley23)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 5:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/19 "2012-11-06T17:56:23Z")
Ohio would pretty much confirm it either way, but yes, if Obama gets Ohio and Virginia I’ll be pretty confident it’s over. As far as media outlets calling the election- typically the calls typically within a few minutes of each other anyway. The one glaring exception is the 2000 Florida catastrofuck. ---
**Author:** ![ElvisL1ves](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/5daacb/32.png) [@ElvisL1ves](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ElvisL1ves)\ **Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/20 "2012-11-06T18:08:42Z")
Romney absolutely needs all of FL, VA, and OH, and will still need to flip another smaller state. So, as soon as \*any \*of those three goes to Obama, it’s over. And I think the first of those will be Virginia, with thanks to Virgil Goode for the assist. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086.md?page=2)