# What state result would confirm for you that the election is decided?

**URL:** <https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086>\
**Category:** Politics & Elections\
**Created:** [November 6, 2012, 3:17pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086 "2012-11-06T15:17:03Z")\
**Posts on this page:** 4\
**Page:** 2

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**Author:** ![UltraVires](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/ecccb3/32.png) [@UltraVires](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/UltraVires)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/21 "2012-11-06T18:27:25Z")

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If Romney is right and the polling methodology is poor, won’t the exit polling lead to equally bad results? Or is a different metric used?

If not, then there might be an election 2000 repeat where states are called, then retracted, awarded to the other guy, then retracted.

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**Author:** ![Simplicio](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c37758/32.png) [@Simplicio](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Simplicio)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 6:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/22 "2012-11-06T18:33:30Z")

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> [@jtgain](#):
>
> If Romney is right and the polling methodology is poor, won’t the exit polling lead to equally bad results? Or is a different metric used?
> 
> If not, then there might be an election 2000 repeat where states are called, then retracted, awarded to the other guy, then retracted.

I think the Romney complaints against polling (other then the fact that it gives a result that they don’t like) is that the likely voter models are incorrect somehow. Given the likely voter model of exit polls is “is the person coming out of a polling station?” I can’t imagine that would be an issue.

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**Author:** ![StusBlues](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/dc4da7/32.png) [@StusBlues](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/StusBlues)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 7:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/23 "2012-11-06T19:11:43Z")

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If North Carolina goes for Obama, that’s it. Romney has no hope. At all.

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**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\
**Post date:** [November 6, 2012, 11:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-state-result-would-confirm-for-you-that-the-election-is-decided/640086/24 "2012-11-06T23:43:44Z")

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Ohio being called for either candidate would probably seal it. But that’s not just a matter of winning Ohio-- It’d mean winning Ohio, _and it not being too close to call_. Margins matter, for predictions.

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