What states are moving further left or right in the US

[adaher]

@BrainGlutton

That is exactly what happened. Racist Dems migrated to the GOP and liberal Pubs migrated (or were driven) to the Dems. That accounts for the geographical change in the parties’ bases.

No, racist economic conservatives moved to the GOP, while racist economic progressives stayed with the Democrats.

Or go third-party. They’re always muttering about doing that if they can’t take over the GOP.

This rarely happens because it’s more profitable for both the disenchanted base and the other party for a switch to happen. Evangelicals are not generally economic conservatives and nothing in their religious beliefs makes them so. What is more likely is that as the Democratic Party becomes more minority and thus more overtly religious, white evangelicals will also find a home there.

The big wildcard is abortion, an issue which unlike most social issues does not automatically move to the left over time. If anything, pro-lifers have gained ground in recent decades and young people are more likely to be pro-life than ever.

That’s why I don’t take demographic changes dooming one or the other parties seriously, Stuff changes too much and different demographics move around for different reasons. You cannot guarantee that any particular group is going to be aligned with any particular party 30 years from now.

[adaher]

@Bone

Not anymore. Too many members of the democratic party got themselves arrested or suspended. The latest was from outspoken gun control advocate Leland Yee who is accused of not only corruption, but of arms trafficking to terrorists.

Supermajority disease. Majorities are corrupt, supermajorities are hopelessly corrupt.

[Reginald_Hobbes]

@BobLibDem

I think it’s way too early to concede reelection to Walker. Early polls may be interesting but let’s give the campaigns a chance to work. I’m cautiously optimistic that Walker’s victory in the recall election was more about the rejection of the idea of recall than it was an endorsement of him. I’m thinking his hamfisted gutting of public worker unions will lead to his defeat.

@BobLibDem

As I recall, the sentiment of many voters was that they disapproved of Walker but did not feel that his brute force handling of the labor issue rose to the level of warranting a recall.

The bolded seems like wishful thinking.
There has been no evidence presented to show that sentiment (assuming it even existed) having any effect on the recall election.

@pkbites

A recall IS an election. And 363991 more votes were cast in it than the original gubernatorial election!

And Walker received 205,509 more votes in the recall than he received when he was originally elected, and received them against the exact same opponent.

Scott Walker (politician) - Wikipedia

[Jonathan_Chance]

@adaher

But it’s not going to change voting patterns. If anything, the issue going away will help REpublicans because gays tend to be wealthier than straights.

I don’t really want to get involved because it’s sort of a mugs game as states drift back and forth all the time, but I did want to point out the final statement above - that LGBT tend to be wealthier - is a matter of some dispute.

[BobLibDem]

@adaher

But it’s not going to change voting patterns. If anything, the issue going away will help REpublicans because gays tend to be wealthier than straights.

I don’t care how rich a gay person is, he/she isn’t going to say: “Gee, I’m rich! That means I’m going to ignore how Republicans wanted to deny me the right to marry the person I love!”

[adaher]

A lot depends on what the Democratic coalition looks like. If it’s heavily Latino and heavily catholic and barely tolerates feminists and gays, that shuffles the coalitions.

[BobLibDem]

@adaher

A lot depends on what the Democratic coalition looks like. If it’s heavily Latino and heavily catholic and barely tolerates feminists and gays, that shuffles the coalitions.

Four decades after Roe v Wade, I’m not seeing Catholics as reliable Republican voters. I don’t think gay marriage is going to work any better than abortion in turning Catholics into Republicans.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

A lot depends on what the Democratic coalition looks like. If it’s heavily Latino and heavily catholic and barely tolerates feminists and gays, that shuffles the coalitions.

Quit fantasizing. It’s unbecoming.

[adaher]

@BobLibDem

Four decades after Roe v Wade, I’m not seeing Catholics as reliable Republican voters. I don’t think gay marriage is going to work any better than abortion in turning Catholics into Republicans.

Of course they won’t become Republicans. No need, since they’ll be controlling the Democratic Party in 30 years. They can just make it fit their image. Right now they have to play ball, be good team players, because white liberals control the party. That won’t be true 30 years from now.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

Of course they won’t become Republicans. No need, since they’ll be controlling the Democratic Party in 30 years. They can just make it fit their image. Right now they have to play ball, be good team players, because white liberals control the party. That won’t be true 30 years from now.

LOL if you think that any group in the US is moving in an anti-gay marriage direction. In 30 years no one will care because (nearly) everyone will accept gay marriage.

[adaher]

Which will cause Democrats to have to manufacture new issues to keep the divisions up.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

Which will cause Democrats to have to manufacture new issues to keep the divisions up.

Won’t be necessary if the Republican party continues to act as it has been. Republicans have needed no help from Democrats in ‘keeping the divisions up’.

[pkbites]

@BobLibDem

I don’t care how rich a gay person is, he/she isn’t going to say: “Gee, I’m rich! That means I’m going to ignore how Republicans wanted to deny me the right to marry the person I love!”

But it’s not just Republicans. Every time there’s a referendum to add an amendment to a state constitution prohibiting gay marriage it wins by a huge margin. So there must be many democrats and independents voting for it too.

[Wesley_Clark]

@pkbites

But it’s not just Republicans. Every time there’s a referendum to add an amendment to a state constitution prohibiting gay marriage it wins by a huge margin. So there must be many democrats and independents voting for it too.

A lot of those laws were passed 10+ years ago. Cultural shifts have been fairly consistent about gay marriage, and many states have hit or are hitting the 50% support range. So you can’t use laws passed 10-20 years ago to describe legal attitudes towards gay marriage now.

[Wesley_Clark]

@drewtwo99

Oregon has become a lot more blue in my lifetime, and just over the last few years especially. Oregon got rid of its (R) senator in 2008, and unlike many other (D) senators up for re-election this year, Jeff Merkley is not expected to have any trouble at all winning his seat again. Oregon has become a bastion of liberalism, when in 2000 it was too close to call for a very long time (not as long as Florida obviously), and in 2004 only moderately went for Kerry.

I believe the same is more or less true for Washington.

Missouri is the starkest example of a state moving to the right.

Florida is moving to the left, and I predict will not even be considered a swing state in another election or two. The fact that Obama won it in a very tightly contested election does not bode well for republicans (as OMG A Black Republican said on election night: unbelievable).

Looking into it, Kerry won Oregon by 4%, Obama won it by about 12% in 2012.

Florida went from a 5 point gap for Bush in 2000 to a 1 point gap for Obama in 2012. But Gore/Bush were tied in 2000. So I don’t know how much Florida is moving to the left.

I wonder why Missouri (or WV) are moving to the right? Missouri has Kansas city and St. Louis, you’d assume those cities would move the state leftward.

[BrainGlutton]

@adaher

Which will cause Democrats to have to manufacture new issues to keep the divisions up.

Oh, they needn’t manufacture them, there’s plenty of good ones, lying around all over the place unclaimed.

[adaher]

@iiandyiiii

Won’t be necessary if the Republican party continues to act as it has been. Republicans have needed no help from Democrats in ‘keeping the divisions up’.

Yes, that’s why Democrats are working on passing the 158th equal pay act for women.

[iiandyiiii]

@adaher

Yes, that’s why Democrats are working on passing the 158th equal pay act for women.

You mean the Democrats are trying to correct an actual, statistical discrepancy (which, contrary to Republican talking heads, actually exists even when things like experience are taken into account)? How dare they!

[adaher]

Perhaps they should first correct the discrepancy in their own offices. Starting with the administration.

And even if I acknowledged the validity of the attempt, at some point more laws isn’t the solution. But that’s Democratic thinking: if the old laws don’t work, don’t bother trying to enforce them. Just pass new laws that won’t be enforced!

[adaher]

@Wesley_Clark

I wonder why Missouri (or WV) are moving to the right? Missouri has Kansas city and St. Louis, you’d assume those cities would move the state leftward.

West Virginia is probably about fossil fuels. This administration is overtly hostile to fossil fuels so any state dependent on them is going to have a big problem with the government.

I also still think that Obama rearranges the electoral map a little. I suspect that a generic Democrat cannot compete in North Carolina the way he did. Although if the election were held today, Clinton could win a Reaganesque landslide.