# What states will flip from Biden to Trump? And Why? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Tags:** trump\ **Created:** [October 30, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428 "2024-10-30T00:04:01Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/1 "2024-10-30T00:04:01Z")
I see a lot of Trump will take this swing state and that one stays blue … but rarely is there any reason behind ht. We have so many threads that maybe I miss a few but overall I see “Trump wins Georgia.” with no actual reasoning. Biden won with 306 EVs meaning Harris needs to lose 37 blue votes from 2020 (assuming no pickups) to lose so I started this thread to have a in-depth discussion specific to possible blue to red flips. And sure, why not throw in possible red to blue flips too. I think that at this point, very few undecideds will go to Trump. The undecideds are split between Harris and third parties. If I am correct, then despite Trump’s slim lead in a few states will not carry over and Harris wins them. This means the only two states that have a chance to flip are AZ and GA (27 EVs). I think that Dems will remember how Trump tried to steal their EVs and say “F Him” and get out to vote just to deny him their state. Question is can that overcome Trump’s lead? I’d feel better if Harris could steal NC but I just don’t think it will happen but it and PA will be close enough to not call that night. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/2 "2024-10-30T00:13:42Z")
Best case scenario I see for Harris at this point is that NC goes to her largely because it is a purple state with more people moving there from blue states every year AND Mark Robinson is such a horrible candidate for Governor that there will be some benefit for the D’s in the Presidential race. Michigan will go to DJT by a hair largely because of Arab/Muslim American voters in that state feel betrayed by Biden regarding the Gaza/Lebanon/Israeli war. Most of these voters will sit out the election or go 3rd party enabling the GOP to get it. They don’t care if it helps Trump, they have been very vocal about punishing the Democrats. GA and AZ will go to DJT because they are more red than blue and 2020 was a fluke. Plus in GA gerrymandering and voter suppression. This would result in 277 Harris - 261 Trump. NOTE: It could easily go the other way and Trump could win 277 - 261 depending on what happens in NC. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:16am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/3 "2024-10-30T00:16:39Z")
I retired from prognostication when GA went blue in 2020. Never imagined it in my lifetime, I have no idea what’s going on. I can say Harris/Walz yard signs in my purple Atlanta neighborhood are sprouting up in a way that I don’t remember ever seeing for Biden, Clinton, or Obama. My early voting site was doing heavy volume, but highly efficient with short waits. 15 minutes to find parking, 5 minutes to vote. There is of course some Trump signage, but less of it, less ostentatioius, and notably further back from the road (I guess to deter vandalism or theft). I can’t imagine that the “Puerto Rico is a trash island” bit has helped Trump in PA, a state that’s said to have a half million PR voters who are said to be highly pissed. > [@Saint\_Cad](#): > > I think that at this point, very few undecideds will go to Trump. The undecideds are split between Harris and third parties. I would cosign on this much. For Trump to increase his share, he’s got to capture the persuadable middle, which has been getting smaller and smaller. By contrast, Harris can make up the difference on getting Dems off the couch. Early voting numbers suggest the numbers are there, that women’s fury over abortion is going to cost Trump as everyone guessed (except Trump) ---
**Author:** ![Smapti](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/smapti/32/17938_2.png) [@Smapti](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Smapti)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/4 "2024-10-30T00:17:59Z")
None of them. ---
**Author:** ![digs](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/digs/32/14889_2.png) [@digs](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/digs)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 1:46am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/5 "2024-10-30T01:46:11Z")
Thanks for that, **Smapti**. I need all the hope I can find, just to get some sleep during the next week… ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 1:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/6 "2024-10-30T01:53:40Z")
He forgot to read the “And Why?” ---
**Author:** ![TeroSunbear](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/terosunbear/32/14748_2.png) [@TeroSunbear](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TeroSunbear)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/7 "2024-10-30T11:08:54Z")
Probably just Georgia. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/8 "2024-10-30T12:09:06Z")
I’m extremely worried about Pennsylvania. Biden won it by less than 2%. Right now it’s polling at a dead heat. It’s getting hammered by Trump ads and Trump support is very strong outside of the cities. It’s the main reason why I’m pessimistic about the outcome of the election. I’m almost as worried about Michigan. Biden won it by over 4%. Harris is polling at about +1. I would not be surprised if she lost there. ---
**Author:** ![DSeid](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dseid/32/20194_2.png) [@DSeid](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DSeid)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:51pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/9 "2024-10-30T12:51:18Z")
My take is that it is Biden’s map plus NC. The big picture _why_ is that I think the systemic error is due to go against Trump this time. The demographics he’s made headway in are the lower propensity voters while Harris has picked up greater strength in the more reliable voting groups. The numbers of possible disaffected Arab voters in MI is not large, and I believe is greatly exaggerated. ---
**Author:** ![ASanders](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asanders/32/3367_2.png) [@ASanders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASanders)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 12:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/10 "2024-10-30T12:54:35Z")
I’m working the polls in NJ and have been through three days of early voting. I live in a tiny blue-ish pocket of a red county in this blue state, but during early voting everyone in the county can vote at any location. We obviously don’t know how the votes are being cast but here are some observations from the ground for what they are worth: 1. The turnout is wild—the numbers are staggering everyone. If it’s true that turnout generally benefits Democrats then Harris has it in the bag. 2. There are MANY first-time voters coming out. And not just young people. I had new citizens (yay!) and also people who simply had never bothered to vote before showing up. 3. SO many women come in with a sense of purpose, vote in 30 seconds and come out with a huge smile. No mistaking their mission! 4. Our voting location has had a constant stream of voters since doors open to doors closing on every voting day so far. This is crazy and I am, frankly, terrified for Election Day. 😬 ---
**Author:** ![DigitalC](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/ebca7d/32.png) [@DigitalC](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DigitalC)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 1:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/11 "2024-10-30T13:01:54Z")
> [@HMS\_Irruncible](#): > > Never imagined it in my lifetime, I have no idea what’s going on. Minority/urban population going up, rural/white population going down. It’s not that weird. My guess is she loses AZ and picks up NC. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 1:57pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/12 "2024-10-30T13:57:44Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > Probably just Georgia. Why Georgia? ---
**Author:** ![flurb](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/51bf81/32.png) [@flurb](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/flurb)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/13 "2024-10-30T15:09:37Z")
I can’t speak for @TeroSunbear, but the biggest difference between Georgia and the other swing states that that Republicans have complete control of state government – the Governor’s office, Secretary of State’s office, big majorities in the state legislature, etc. There’s a thousand ways for them to put a thumb on the scale. They were caught flat-footed last time, but I’d be surprised if they repeat that mistake. ---
**Author:** ![Loach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/loach/32/350_2.png) [@Loach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Loach)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 3:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/14 "2024-10-30T15:26:12Z")
> [@ASanders](#): > > I’m working the polls in NJ and have been through three days of early voting. I live in a tiny blue-ish pocket of a red county in this blue state, but during early voting everyone in the county can vote at any location. We obviously don’t know how the votes are being cast but here are some observations from the ground for what they are worth: > > 1. The turnout is wild—the numbers are staggering everyone. If it’s true that turnout generally benefits Democrats then Harris has it in the bag. > 2. There are MANY first-time voters coming out. And not just young people. I had new citizens (yay!) and also people who simply had never bothered to vote before showing up. > 3. SO many women come in with a sense of purpose, vote in 30 seconds and come out with a huge smile. No mistaking their mission! > 4. Our voting location has had a constant stream of voters since doors open to doors closing on every voting day so far. This is crazy and I am, frankly, terrified for Election Day. 😬 I saw that in the first weekend about 10% of expected voters voted. It doesn’t make a huge difference. Harris should win the state by at least 12 points. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/15 "2024-10-30T15:49:18Z")
Only states I could see Trump taking from Biden would be Arizona and Georgia, just because they were red states for so long - similar to how Trump took Pennsylvania and Michigan in 2016 when he wasn’t “supposed to” but those two states then reverted back to their normal blue selves in 2020. ---
**Author:** ![HMS\_Irruncible](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/hms_irruncible/32/7394_2.png) [@HMS\_Irruncible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HMS_Irruncible)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 5:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/16 "2024-10-30T17:58:58Z")
> [@TeroSunbear](#): > > Probably just Georgia. I was shocked when I saw GA flip in 2020, but I will tell you that just from eyeballing yard signs, in 2024 I see greater Dem support and less Trump support than I recall from 2020. Early voting has been doing a very brisk business. From where I sit, I don’t see a reason to expect GA to flip back to Trump, though voter-suppression shenanigans are absolutely a wildcard that shouldn’t be discounted. ---
**Author:** ![Mallard](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/b9bd4f/32.png) [@Mallard](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mallard)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 6:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/17 "2024-10-30T18:03:18Z")
My extremely uneducated “guess” is Harris keeps all her blue states, and wins Wisconsin, Michigan & Pennsylvania but loses the other swing states. Should be enough for a razor thin EC win. ---
**Author:** ![Saint\_Cad](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/saint_cad/32/18907_2.png) [@Saint\_Cad](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Saint_Cad)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 6:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/18 "2024-10-30T18:30:38Z")
I’m just hoping she is sitting on election night with 271 so that PA and NC do not determine victory. > [@Mallard](#): > > My extremely uneducated “guess” is Harris keeps all her blue states I concur. I can’t see how Harris has less support than Biden in the blue states and Trump is losing support; there were no “Republicans for Biden” in 2020. But like I’ve said here. If you are a Democrat in a swing state and you don’t vote, YOU are the reason Trump won. ---
**Author:** ![ASanders](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asanders/32/3367_2.png) [@ASanders](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ASanders)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/19 "2024-10-30T18:36:34Z")
Oh, I’m not worried about NJ going red thank goodness. But if this level of turnout is the same all over the country, Democrats are showing UP. ---
**Author:** ![Scoobysnax](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c4cdca/32.png) [@Scoobysnax](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Scoobysnax)\ **Post date:** [October 30, 2024, 7:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428/20 "2024-10-30T19:01:24Z")
I am cautiously optimistic about Georgia. In 2020 they had 4,935,487 votes for president. As of 3pm on October 30, early voting is sitting at 3,372,000 or 68 percent of the 2020 total. I think that we are going to see record turnout this year. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-states-will-flip-from-biden-to-trump-and-why/1009428.md?page=2)