# What to look for on election night **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [November 2, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414 "2016-11-02T01:35:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 14\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![Palo\_Verde](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/p/65b543/32.png) [@Palo\_Verde](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Palo_Verde)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:35am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/1 "2016-11-02T01:35:21Z")
One week from today, we’ll all be glued to our screens as we watch the election returns come in. What would you say are the dealbreakers to look for early on. What I mean is something like, “If Clinton wins Florida and Pensylvania, then it’s all wrapped up.” At what point will you feel the outcome is pretty well certain? ---
**Author:** ![Lok](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/e8c25b/32.png) [@Lok](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lok)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:44am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/2 "2016-11-02T01:44:45Z")
Add North Carolina to that and you pretty much have it. ---
**Author:** ![Jonathan\_Chance](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jonathan_chance/32/701_2.png) [@Jonathan\_Chance](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jonathan_Chance)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 1:52am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/3 "2016-11-02T01:52:31Z")
North Carolina is the real bellwether. If Hillary wins that one it’s pretty much over. ---
**Author:** ![nearwildheaven](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/90db22/32.png) [@nearwildheaven](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/nearwildheaven)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/4 "2016-11-02T02:04:58Z")
When the results are in from all 50 states. :o ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/5 "2016-11-02T02:11:56Z")
> [@nearwildheaven](#): > > When the results are in from all 50 states. > > :o We can probably call it before Hawaii is in. One way or the other! ---
**Author:** ![Mahaloth](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/mahaloth/32/1079_2.png) [@Mahaloth](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mahaloth)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/6 "2016-11-02T02:12:30Z")
I think she’ll win Pennsylvania. If Florida or Ohio go to her, it’s over. But North Carolina would also do it. ---
**Author:** ![ultimate11](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/u/49beb7/32.png) [@ultimate11](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ultimate11)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/7 "2016-11-02T02:17:08Z")
In post-brexit times, I’d probably wait until the final bell. I waited until the bell for the “Fight of the century” this year (I picked Mayweather to win that fight- it’s all about numbers), it’ll happen for this election that I’ll see it to the bitter end. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/8 "2016-11-02T02:27:38Z")
If Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina, it’s hard to imagine how he wins. So if Clinton wins any of those If he manages to take those early contests, then the question is whether he wins in Pennsylvania – if Trump sweeps all four, he wins. But even if he doesn’t complete the sweep in PA, he could still win with victories in New Hampshire and Nevada. So if I look at see Clinton winning PA and NH, I’ll probably start breaking out the beer. And if Clinton loses FL, OH, NC, and **PA** , then I’ll probably start drinking whiskey. ---
**Author:** ![ThisIsTheEnd](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thisistheend/32/4713_2.png) [@ThisIsTheEnd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThisIsTheEnd)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 7:39am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/9 "2016-11-02T07:39:08Z")
Assuming PA, any one of FL, NC, OH does it for Clinton. If Trump wins PA, he still needs FL, NC, OH, but the chances of him doing it are much higher. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 9:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/10 "2016-11-02T09:42:59Z")
According to **septimus** : > [@](#): > > The earliest swing-state closures are > 0000 UTC (4pm PST) Virginia > 0030 North Carolina > > If Hillary takes both, pop the champagne! If Trump wins both you can slit your wrists now. In any case we can assume the TV is turned off unless these states split. Expect network predictions soon after the polls close, no? Florida may present about the same time as NC but if Hillary loses NC I expect her to lose FL as well. > > The big election closures coming up now are: > > 0100 Pennsylvania > 0100 Michigan > 0100 New Hampshire > > Hillary desperately wants to sweep these three states. Know that Trump will sit behind the Resolute Desk (or whatever gold eyesore he replaces it with) if he wins PA or MI. > > If Hillary gets both PA and MI, but Trump gets NC, FL you’ll have to stay up. But you’ll be either cautiously optimistic (if Hillary won NH) or in desperate torture (if Trump won NH). > > At this point it’s all up to 3 and a half swing states further west — Wisconsin, Colorado and Nevada. Pundits have Hillary favored to win each of the three states, so she can win even without New Hampshire. On the other hand, if Trump won NC and NH, he’s probably winning Nevada as well and that’s all he needs to win the Electoral College tie! (Tie goes to Trump-Pence or Trump-Kaine.) > > If Hillary got New Hampshire, things are rougher for Trump — he needs Wisconsin (or the Colorado Plus Nevada parlay). > > I mentioned that it becomes a 3 and a half state endgame, if the polls close with OH \* NC & FL Trump, PA Clinton. The extra half arises because of Omaha. … > > In both the NH+NV and the WI ways for Trump to win 269-269, Omaha’s 1 e.v. might (very longshot) swing it back to Hillary 270-268. > > * * * UTC is universal time (basically, Greenwich Mean Time). ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/11 "2016-11-02T11:08:51Z")
**septimus** mentioned three other states that could be key, but not their poll closing times. Here they are, in US CENTRAL time: 8:00 Wisconsin, Colorado, Nebraska 9:00 Nevada ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:13am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/12 "2016-11-02T11:13:04Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > **septimus** mentioned three other states that could be key, but not their poll closing times. Here they are, in US CENTRAL time: > > 8:00 Wisconsin, Colorado, Nebraska > 9:00 Nevada At the moment, Wisconsin would appear to be a fairly safe bet for Hillary Clinton. Colorado seems stable for Clinton at the moment as well, though indeed it’ll be worth watching if the actual returns indicate that the polls might be off. Nobody voting for Clinton is going to get a wink of sleep until she gets to 270. Nevada matters if Clinton loses FL, OH, NC, **and NH** – if she loses all of those states but wins PA and all of the other states that she appears to be winning now, then Nevada becomes the king / queen maker. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 11:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/13 "2016-11-02T11:57:28Z")
Here’s my hour by hour viewing guide (using EST as the default US time zone, also uses the latest closing time for states with multiple time zones) 6:00 PM. SC comes in with an easy win for Trump. 7:00 PM. Trump scoops up some low-hanging fruit in KY and IN, Hillary does the same with VT and VA. GA closes and if it isn’t called quickly for Trump, Hillary is having a good night. 7:30 PM. WV will be called for Trump exactly at 7:30. Two big bellwethers, OH and NC also close. I don’t look for either to be called at this point, but we start keeping our eye on the returns from these states. If Hillary wins both, it’s over. 8:00 PM. It starts getting real. Early calls for Trump in MS, OK, AL, MO, and TN. Easy wins for Hillary in DE, DC, ME, RI, CT, MD, MA, NJ, and IL. We won’t have calls yet, but start watching returns in NH, OH, PA, and FL. GA should finally check in for Trump. Still too early for OH and NC. 8:30 PM. AR gets called immediately for Trump. 9:00 PM. Easy wins for Trump in SD, WY, NE, KS, TX, and LA. Clinton sweeps up NY, MI, MN, WI, CO, and NM. AZ starts to come in and if it takes a while to call it, good for Hillary. We should start seeing some calls for NH, OH, PA, and FL. 10:00 PM. Early calls for Trump in UT and MT. Clinton should win NV easily. IA is the sticky wicket here- another one where no early call is good for Hillary. 11:00 PM. Trump gets ID. Hillary sweeps CA, OR, WA, and HI. This is when the presidential call will be official, assuming Hillary gets PA and FL called for her by then. Hillary goes on about 11:30 to declare victory, Trump slithers off into the darkness from whence he came. 1:00 AM. Trump gets AK. We should have the final count by then. ---
**Author:** ![Honey](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/honey/32/5074_2.png) [@Honey](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Honey)\ **Post date:** [November 2, 2016, 12:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-to-look-for-on-election-night/770414/14 "2016-11-02T12:32:53Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > If Trump loses Florida, Ohio, or North Carolina, it’s hard to imagine how he wins. So if Clinton wins any of those > > If he manages to take those early contests, then the question is whether he wins in Pennsylvania – if Trump sweeps all four, he wins. > > But even if he doesn’t complete the sweep in PA, he could still win with victories in New Hampshire and Nevada. > > So if I look at see Clinton winning PA and NH, I’ll probably start breaking out the beer. And if Clinton loses FL, OH, NC, and **PA** , then I’ll probably start drinking whiskey. Ill be voting around 5pm…and drinking at 5:15. A lot. 😉