What was the context of Lord Kelvin's infamous statement about flying machines?

About the only possible European claim for manned, powered, heavier-than-air flight prior to Dec 1903 would be the experiments of Clement Ader. He claimed a flight of around 1000 feet in 1897, and was able to put forward some evidence for it. But in 1910, a report from a commission that had observed the attempt was made public, proving that no flight had been achieved.

There were also claims of a short (50-meter), low-altitude (under 1-meter) powered flight by Ader in 1890. This may have happened, but was no more aerodynamically significant than a motorcycle jump (the machine had no provision for any sort of control).

I seem to remember a Time magazine essay about how the head of the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office recommended, sometime in the late 19th century, that the office should be closed, as all useful inventions had already been made.

According to Wikiquote the quote is sourced from The Experts Speak : The Definitive Compendium of Authoritative Misinformation (1984) by Christopher Cerf and Victor Navasky. I have no idea regarding the veracity of the book (I’m dubious) but perhaps someone can pick it up and see what it says.

Sorry if I didn’t make it clear, but I haven’t been able to come up with a cite that the context of the quote is aerial navigation.

Yet I’d argue that it stretches credulity to believe he was saying that no man-made object could possibly fly. Such things were indeed commonplace in 1895. For example, the Wrights received a toy helicopters as a gift from their father in 1877.

This quote has twice been debunked in the pages of The Skeptical Inquirer. No one can locate an actual source for a serious statement from an officer of the Patent Office saying anything of the sort. It originally appeared in the Spring 1989 issue, pp. 310-313 and was reprinted in the May-June 1993 issue
http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m2843/is_3_27/ai_100755224

See also http://www.ipmall.fplc.edu/hosted_resources/PatentHistory/posass.htm

I’m not aware of any more detailed discussion from Kelvin of his doubts. The oft-quoted remarks he made are generally lacking in context and justification. He was extemely widely quoted in the press at the time, so it’s hardly surprising to find him expressing essentially unsupportable opinions off-the-cuff. However, I will note that the interview only really touches on controllable flight. Thus he’s not denying that Lilienthal flew, he’s suggesting that he couldn’t do so safely. Similarly, his objections about airships are whether they can do more than effectively drift with the wind.

By contrast, Simon Newcomb did explicitly explain his reservations in his famous 1903 popular article (a pdf). While wrong in hindsight, his arguments were cogent and the article is clearly written and well worth reading.

It looks to me as if he meant that practical flying machines were impossible using the technology of the time. Consider this quote that Anaglyph posted above…

That, to me, sounds as if he is saying that it could be done, just not at the time. The only mistake he seems to have made is overestimating how long it would take to become practical.

There’s a few more than that - but I wasn’t denying the Wright’s their claim - I was trying to find context for Lord Kelvin’s skepticism.

At a time when there were multiple claims, from sources of varying reliability, Kelvin may have only witnessed attempts that were so far off base that the other claims could also be dismissed.

Film was in its infancy, there was no way of transmitting pictures faster than trains could carry them. No instant report by radio. Kelvin’s fastest information would have arrived by morse code.

It’s all very well for us to say that aerodynmics are logical and an intelligent man like Lord Kelvin should have realised what was possible, but early planes were developed along different lines because even the makers were trying to work it out as they went.

The Wrights used a bi-plane model with ‘pusher’ propellers to keep the aircraft stable - Pearse (to my eternal shame, I spelt his name wrong previously) used a mono wing with a single tractor propeller, using the low centre of gravity for stability. Pearse also used aelierons, but sited them in the wrong place, so even if he’d flown earlier, he’d still have trouble claiming *controlled * flight.

Both invented heavier than air flight independantly - the laws of physics were the same for each, but their methods of using those laws had to be worked out from scratch. The Wrights’ plane is very similar to the bi-planes that followed it. Pearse’s is very similar to modern microlites.

wiki - also has a section detailing the Wrights’ troubles having their invention recognised,

, which would put Lord Kelvin’s 1895 quote into context. People still didn’t believe it three years after it happened, why should he have believed it 8 years before?

The important difference is that the Wrights developed and patented a practical system of 3-axis control (which has been fundamental to about 98% of manned flight ever since). Pearse did not.

Yes, their approaches were different, as were the approaches of the other inventors - most were not successful - that was my point.

Kelvin would have known more unsucessful attempts (n>0) than sucessful ones (0) at the time he made the quote - even though the other plane makers had the same knowledge of physics that the Wrights and Kelvin did.

I’m not arguing the details of powered flight - I’m trying to put Kelvin’s attitude in context, as per the OP.

If you start out by rereading the very useful post #7 by Anaglyph, you’ll see under the section titled “On Aeronautics” four quotes attributed to Kelvin. The last three quotes all have quite verifiable links to sources. The first, the one in question in the OP, has no link. That should be your first clue.

The statement “I can state flatly that heavier than air flying machines are impossible.” is a paraphrase of what Mangetout asked about in the OP.

I have no doubt that the quote attibuted to Kelvin in this or a similar form didn’t happen.

Agreed - the statement would be a piece of utter nonsense if made after the appearance of a successful flying machine.

The Wrights were very wary of patent infringement and there were still doubters that they had actually made the first controlled flight for several years after the historic Kitty Hawk flight.

CalMeacham, thanks for the info on the spurious remark by a U.S. patent official. Ignorance fought!

A lot of people made similar statements *after *the fact - as previously stated by several posters. There wasn’t enough reliable reporting for such an event to be taken on trust. The Wrights didn’t help by refusing more public demonstrations (as Elendil’s Heir said, for fear of their work being copied). That disbelief wasn’t “utter nonsense”, it was ignorance of the facts.

To clarify once more - there were attempts at powered, controlled flight, maybe none successful, definitely none *proven *during the time Kelvin made the statement. Even in 1907, when he died, there was still no definitive proof that the Wrights had flown - they waited till they had not only the patent, but also production contracts before staring flight demos again in 1908.

Again, you seem to be missing the ‘context’ - that Lord Kelvin did not have direct proof that any flight had been made, he had unreliable second or third-hand reports. The Wrights certainly had flown before he died, but he still would have had no proof and therefore no reason to alter his belief.