# What was the largest city/town to vote Trump in 2016? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [July 11, 2019, 2:27am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880 "2019-07-11T02:27:39Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 12\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 14, 2019, 9:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/21 "2019-07-14T21:30:07Z")
> [@JKellyMap](#): > > Fort Worth is definitely a city in its own right, and getting quite big. It is about the same size as Jacksonville. (Almost 900,000). > > It’s looking like these two cities are about tied for the factual answer to the OP. If we have to decide between them, I’d give the prize to Fort Worth, since Jacksonville’s vote was so close to a tie. Here are the details: * * * Populations: Tarrant County: 2.054 million (2017) Fort Worth: 874,168 (2017) Tarrant County election results in 2016: Trump: 345,921 / 51.74% Clinton: 288,392 / 43.14% Fort Worth is the 13th-largest city in the United States and fifth-largest city in Texas. * * * Populations: Duval County: 937,934 (2017) Jacksonville: 892,062 (2017) Duval County election results in 2016: Trump: 211,672 / 48.92% Clinton: 205,704 / 47.54% Jacksonville is the 12th-largest city in the United States and largest in Florida. * * * The Jacksonville result is a close call, so I agree that it’s difficult to say with certainty whether Trump won that city. The Fort Worth result looks a stronger case, but we can’t really say anything conclusive without being able to separate the votes coming from the city, from the votes coming from the rest of the county. ---
**Author:** ![sps49sd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@sps49sd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sps49sd)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2019, 4:23am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/22 "2019-07-15T04:23:21Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > Out of curiosity, how much of Duval Co is Jacksonville? As I recall from my brief time living in FL, Jacksonville was pretty damn big geographically - like even larger than Los Angeles, I wanna say. If I recall correctly, Jax takes up all of Duval except for Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Neptunr Beach, all in the SE oceanfront sliver. ---
**Author:** ![dalej42](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/67e7ee/32.png) [@dalej42](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dalej42)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2019, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/23 "2019-07-15T16:40:13Z")
> [@sps49sd](#): > > If I recall correctly, Jax takes up all of Duval except for Jacksonville Beach, Atlantic Beach, and Neptunr Beach, all in the SE oceanfront sliver. My information maybe out of date, but I remember studying how Jacksonville and Duval are a city-county in my State and Local politics class. This was at Florida State so we spent a lot of time studying Jacksonville and Duval and comparing their efficiency as opposed to places like Broward county which has quite a few incorporated cities. Sorry for the hijack, but it is an interesting bit of trivia. ---
**Author:** ![sps49sd](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/a9a28c/32.png) [@sps49sd](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sps49sd)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2019, 5:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/24 "2019-07-15T17:44:37Z")
> [@dalej42](#): > > …Jacksonville and Duval are a city-county… It’s been a while since I lived in Florida, but San Fran is definitely the “City and County of San Francisco”. No real separation at all. It’s probably easier when the county is 7 x 7 miles. ---
**Author:** ![RickG](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/rickg/32/5174_2.png) [@RickG](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/RickG)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2019, 9:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/25 "2019-07-15T21:04:10Z")
Will Wilkinson at the Niskanen Center (a moderate, “liberaltarian” think tank) talks about the [density divide](https://niskanencenter.org/blog/the-density-divide-urbanization-polarization-and-populist-backlash/) ([full PDF paper](https://niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Wilkinson-Density-Divide-Final.pdf)). It’s not so much the size of the city, but the population density that is predictive of vote share. Take a look at the charts on page 8 of the PDF. It didn’t used to be the case that density predicted partisan vote share, but it’s certainly true now. And, because our system was designed to give a relative advantage to low density regions, the Republican Party now has much more power than would be expected from its vote share. And the divide is getting wider as self-sorting continues. ---
**Author:** ![JKellyMap](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/jkellymap/32/15880_2.png) [@JKellyMap](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/JKellyMap)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 12:41am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/26 "2019-07-16T00:41:07Z")
Interesting, RickG — thanks for sharing. To illustrate the point, Jacksonville and Fort Worth are quite low-density for big cities, Im pretty sure. ---
**Author:** ![beowulff](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/beowulff/32/542_2.png) [@beowulff](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/beowulff)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 2:33am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/27 "2019-07-16T02:33:08Z")
Trump lost Phoenix by 11 points: > **[City-Level Voting in Maricopa County, AZ](https://agadjanianpolitics.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/city-level-voting-in-maricopa-county-az/)** > > I was born in and grew up in Tempe, Arizona, but the places I visited, people I met, and areas I heard about during my childhood encompassed much of the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. This regi… ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/28 "2019-07-16T02:58:04Z")
> [@RickG](#): > > Will Wilkinson at the Niskanen Center (a moderate, “liberaltarian” think tank) talks about the [density divide](https://niskanencenter.org/blog/the-density-divide-urbanization-polarization-and-populist-backlash/) ([full PDF paper](https://niskanencenter.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/06/Wilkinson-Density-Divide-Final.pdf)). It’s not so much the size of the city, but the population density that is predictive of vote share. Take a look at the charts on page 8 of the PDF. > > It didn’t used to be the case that density predicted partisan vote share, but it’s certainly true now. And, because our system was designed to give a relative advantage to low density regions, the Republican Party now has much more power than would be expected from its vote share. And the divide is getting wider as self-sorting continues. Interesting to see how it has changed over time. Maybe with high-speed broadband and infrastructure improvements, there could be less of a pull to the cities in future decades, and maybe even a reversal of the trend. > [@beowulff](#): > > Trump lost Phoenix by 11 points: > [City-Level Voting in Maricopa County, AZ – Agadjanian Politics](https://agadjanianpolitics.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/city-level-voting-in-maricopa-county-az/) Good find, as well as snapshot of a county. Turnout was a bit higher in places Trump won, reflecting an energized base. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 3:07am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/29 "2019-07-16T03:07:52Z")
If I looked at the right precincts and didn’t double-count anything, it looks like Hillary Clinton won Jacksonville (Duval County except for the beach cities and Baldwin) by 495 votes. (If I missed any, she won by more. Trump won every precinct anywhere near those areas.) ---
**Author:** ![Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/w/b487fb/32.png) [@Walken\_After\_Midnight](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Walken_After_Midnight)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 3:18am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/30 "2019-07-16T03:18:42Z")
The map of the Tarrant County voting [on this page](https://www.star-telegram.com/news/politics-government/election/article114512593.html) makes it look as though Clinton most likely won Fort Worth too. ---
**Author:** ![Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kolak_of_twilo/32/73_2.png) [@Kolak\_of\_Twilo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kolak_of_Twilo)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 3:25am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/31 "2019-07-16T03:25:32Z")
> [@Anny\_Middon](#): > > Chicago and Cook County went resoundingly for Hillary, of course. But I was heartened by the fact that Du Page County also went strongly for Clinton. > > At one time, not in the too-distant past, Du Page was one of the reddest counties in the country. I remember noticing that at the time and wondered what had happened. Check out post #25 and look at the link **RickG** shared. Population density seems to correlate to voting for Democrats. I’m curious if that could be what happened in Du Page? If so then the GOP should be concerned about their future in states like Ohio, Florida, Texas, etc as the suburban counties around the cities see increases in density. ---
**Author:** ![Lord\_Feldon](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lord_feldon/32/341_2.png) [@Lord\_Feldon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lord_Feldon)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2019, 3:32am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880/32 "2019-07-16T03:32:21Z")
> [@beowulff](#): > > Trump lost Phoenix by 11 points: > [City-Level Voting in Maricopa County, AZ – Agadjanian Politics](https://agadjanianpolitics.wordpress.com/2016/12/30/city-level-voting-in-maricopa-county-az/) That also shows that Trump won Mesa (#35), which may be the answer. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-largest-city-town-to-vote-trump-in-2016/836880.md?page=1)