# What was the last word on the possibility of a stolen 2004 election? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [July 13, 2012, 2:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108 "2012-07-13T14:07:28Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 4
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 5:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/61 "2012-07-15T17:45:54Z")
> [@Ibn\_Warraq](#): > > You think people who think anti-vaccers and truthers aren’t credible are close minded? > > “Gullible” is not a synonym for being “open-minded.” The report originated on Salon, Ibn. Your mind remains closed. When come back, bring something resembling an argument. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 5:59pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/62 "2012-07-15T17:59:58Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > As for the exit polls, whose exit polls? CNN’s exit polls showed Bush winning the popular vote overall: > > [CNN.com Election 2004](http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/states/US/P/00/epolls.0.html) I’m not up on your CNN poll, but here are the poll results studied by Freeman: > [@](#): > > The 2004 Election Day exit poll was a well-funded effort conducted by the most experienced pollsters in the business, and it represented a broad spectrum of media interests, from Fox to CBS. The sample included 114,559 respondents in the 50 state exit polls, conducted at 1,480 precincts throughout the nation. A subsample of these was selected to provide a sample representative of the U.S. electorate for the national exit poll: 11,719 Election Day voters and 500 absentee and early voters. The National Election Pool, NEP, a consortium of six news organizations (ABC, AP, CBS, CNN, Fox and NBC) pooled resources to conduct a thorough survey of each state and the nation. NEP in turn contracted two respected firms, Joe Lenski’s Edison Media research and Warren Mitofsky’s Mitofsky International, to conduct the polls. I note that CNN is among the polls cited. > [@](#): > > Also, other exit pollsters that got bad results said that Republican voters were refusing interviews in large numbers: > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html) Ok, could you please stop using this quote until someone addresses my point that absent an explanation of why the Bush voters did not respond to the pollsters while the Kerry voters DID in precincts with high discrepancy rates? I have already pointed out that the report admits they have no idea why this might be true, and have pointed out a very simple, logical alternate explanation: vote fraud in those precincts. > [@](#): > > and unlike with Florida 2000, the exit polls were not so badly off that it caused a state to be incorrectly called by any networks, which rely on exit polling for their projections. That’s because the networks, which came under SEVERE criticism for early calls in the 2000 election that turned out to be completely wrong, held off on their predictions in 2004. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 6:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/63 "2012-07-15T18:42:39Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Ok, could you please stop using this quote until someone addresses my point that absent an explanation of why the Bush voters did not respond to the pollsters while the Kerry voters DID in precincts with high discrepancy rates? I have already pointed out that the report admits they have no idea why this might be true, and have pointed out a very simple, logical alternate explanation: vote fraud in those precincts. Maybe it’s because the rightwing was promoting the idea of lying to pollsters at the time to throw them off. That’s as good an explanation as any considering you’re relying polls, an incredibly inaccurate means of measuring anything. ---
**Author:** ![Frylock](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/ce7236/32.png) [@Frylock](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Frylock)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/64 "2012-07-15T18:43:01Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > As > Also, other exit pollsters that got bad results said that Republican voters were refusing interviews in large numbers: > > [http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html](http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A22188-2005Jan19.html) Is that what you meant to link to? It’s just the same article **Evil Captor** was talking about, AFAICT. As he said, the idea that republican voters were refusing interviews, as presented in that article, isn’t a fact known independently, but rather, is a hypothesis created in order to explain the discrepancies. I mean–how would interviewers know that it was Republicans in particular who were refusing interviews? ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 15, 2012, 6:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/65 "2012-07-15T18:47:04Z")
Nm. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/66 "2012-07-16T00:30:08Z")
I think your arguments against my links are valid, but I did think they should be put out there as evidence. CNN was among the pollsters cited as a whole, but their individual results were close to the actual outcome. If all the exit polls were wrong, I’d be more concerned. But if only some were wrong, bringing the average to a Kerry win, then that doesn’t really provide evidence for anything. Exit polls or any polls were not meant to be more reliable than actual election returns. If they were, we could save a lot of money by just polling a random sample of 10,000 people to determine who should be President. ---
**Author:** ![Accidental\_Martyr](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/ce7236/32.png) [@Accidental\_Martyr](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Accidental_Martyr)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 12:59am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/67 "2012-07-16T00:59:05Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Is that what you meant to link to? It’s just the same article **Evil Captor** was talking about, AFAICT. As he said, the idea that republican voters were refusing interviews, as presented in that article, isn’t a fact known independently, but rather, is a hypothesis created in order to explain the discrepancies. > > I mean–how would interviewers know that it was Republicans in particular who were refusing interviews? Hmm, good question. ---
**Author:** ![AHunter3](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/ahunter3/32/368_2.png) [@AHunter3](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/AHunter3)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 3:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/68 "2012-07-16T03:11:43Z")
People have short memories. John F. Kerry was every so slightly in the lead in electoral college projections shortly before the elections. The attention of the electorate was largely on the Iraq war. Then within DAYS of the election a certain individual named Osama Bin Laden released a videotape. I knew the moment I heard it, “FuckFuckFuck!!! Bush just won the goddam election!!!” It shifted attention from the Iraq war (clusterfuck) to the generic “war on terror” which was an issue Bush polled much better on. ---
**Author:** ![MaxTheVool](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/9fc29f/32.png) [@MaxTheVool](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/MaxTheVool)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 9:22am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/69 "2012-07-16T09:22:39Z")
Speaking as a democrat here, another thing that should be factored in is… if the republicans had the ability to steal the 2004 election, then how did Obama win the 2008 election? What happened to all their nefarious apparatus? That said, I don’t think that saying “oh you liberals, it’s just sour grapes” is particularly useful or helpful. It’s crucial to be alert for corruption and criminality so that if it does occurs, we are alert and we catch it. It’s also perfectly reasonable to say “hey, I think there was some corruption there, let’s investigate” as long as we’re not simultaneously declaring the presidency invalid and causing a constitutional crisis with no grounds, or something like that. ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 12:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/70 "2012-07-16T12:14:18Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Actually, the circumstantial evidence is pretty close to overwhelming. In my experience, conspiracy theorists can often build a circumstantial evidence case that’s pretty close to overwhelming. Consider the converse, though: if there really were such widespread voter fraud as you’re suggesting, it would require a massive conspiracy. How many people do you think would be the minimum that would have to know about it? And yet not one of those people has been caught; not one smoking gun has been found. Conspiracy theory. No conspiracy. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 2:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/71 "2012-07-16T14:54:46Z")
> [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](#): > > In my experience, conspiracy theorists can often build a circumstantial evidence case that’s pretty close to overwhelming. Consider the converse, though: if there really were such widespread voter fraud as you’re suggesting, it would require a massive conspiracy. How many people do you think would be the minimum that would have to know about it? And yet not one of those people has been caught; not one smoking gun has been found. > > Conspiracy theory. No conspiracy. To reiterate: the biggest discrepancies occurred in Bush precincts, there was little or no discrepancy in the Kerry precincts. There was more discrepancy in battleground states. There was more discrepancy in states with Republican governors. Nobody that I know of is challenging these facts. I’m not calling for overturning the 2004 election. I’m just saying that Democrats, and anyone who cares about fair elections, really, should be looking VERY hard at the electoral processes where these things occurred, to make sure they don’t RECUR, 'cause right now it looks like it’s gonna be a very close election in 2012. I think refusing to do so shows a lack of common sense. ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/72 "2012-07-16T15:00:37Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Speaking as a democrat here, another thing that should be factored in is… if the republicans had the ability to steal the 2004 election, then how did Obama win the 2008 election? What happened to all their nefarious apparatus? Electoral fraud works best where the contest is a very close one. It’s much more difficult in cases where one candidate has a large majority of votes, as Obama did in 2008. It’s much easier undetectably shave a few tens of thousands of votes in key precincts in a state to swing the state your way, than to shave hundreds of thousand of votes. > [@](#): > > That said, I don’t think that saying “oh you liberals, it’s just sour grapes” is particularly useful or helpful. It’s crucial to be alert for corruption and criminality so that if it does occurs, we are alert and we catch it. It’s also perfectly reasonable to say “hey, I think there was some corruption there, let’s investigate” as long as we’re not simultaneously declaring the presidency invalid and causing a constitutional crisis with no grounds, or something like that. I think the democrats would use the same sort of techniques if they were necessary. They use the ‘get out the vote’ technique because it wins for them. Republican cage and suppress votes because it wins for them. If the tables were turned, the suspects would be different. The reason Republicans are better candidates for cheating is because the demographics are running against them. The number of crusty, scum sucking old white guys and their doormat wives keeps decreasing. They gotta do something! ---
**Author:** ![Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/left_hand_of_dorkness/32/7156_2.png) [@Left\_Hand\_of\_Dorkness](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Left_Hand_of_Dorkness)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 3:02pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/73 "2012-07-16T15:02:20Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > To reiterate: the biggest discrepancies occurred in Bush precincts, there was little or no discrepancy in the Kerry precincts. There was more discrepancy in battleground states. There was more discrepancy in states with Republican governors. Nobody that I know of is challenging these facts. I’m not calling for overturning the 2004 election. I’m just saying that Democrats, and anyone who cares about fair elections, really, should be looking VERY hard at the electoral processes where these things occurred, to make sure they don’t RECUR, 'cause right now it looks like it’s gonna be a very close election in 2012. I think refusing to do so shows a lack of common sense. If you’re arguing that we should be careful to have fair elections, I absolutely agree. But there’s limited energy for where to look, and I’d much rather spend that energy looking at places where we know there’s going to be shenanigans–e.g., discouraging poor and minority voters via false information, unwieldy voter ID measures, and intimidation–than in places where the only evidence of malfeasance is shaky and circumstantial. ---
**Author:** ![Cheesesteak](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/cheesesteak/32/3694_2.png) [@Cheesesteak](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Cheesesteak)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/74 "2012-07-16T15:49:41Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > Electoral fraud works best where the contest is a very close one. Then why did Massachusetts have a bigger pro-Bush swing (poll to tally) than Ohio? Was that state a nail biter? 30 states had result discrepancies greater than the official Margin of Error. There weren’t 30 swing states, there weren’t 30 close races. There was a lot of talk at the time about Ohio, but nobody put together a cohesive reason why 30 states had such large discrepancies. Well, I’m kind of partial to “Your poll was wrong”. If it was 30 states wrong, with 15 shifting Kerry and 15 shifting Bush, nobody would have said squat other than “Your poll sucks”. Because the discrepancies favored one candidate over the other\*, this crappy poll is suddenly elevated to a “Conspiracy Buster” and paraded around with pride instead of embarrassment. \*Gee, a lousy poll tends to be wronger in one direction than the other direction, what a shocker. ---
**Author:** ![TriPolar](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/tripolar/32/3008_2.png) [@TriPolar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/TriPolar)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 4:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/75 "2012-07-16T16:19:54Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > I’m just saying that Democrats, and anyone who cares about fair elections, really, should be looking VERY hard at the electoral processes where these things occurred, to make sure they don’t RECUR, 'cause right now it looks like it’s gonna be a very close election in 2012. I think refusing to do so shows a lack of common sense. I’m confused. Was there some news item I missed where Democrats started caring about fair elections and planned to start using common sense? ---
**Author:** ![Evil\_Captor](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/f17d59/32.png) [@Evil\_Captor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Evil_Captor)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 5:23pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/76 "2012-07-16T17:23:13Z")
> [@TriPolar](#): > > I’m confused. Was there some news item I missed where Democrats started caring about fair elections and planned to start using common sense? Some Democrats care about fair elections, some don’t. But you’ve totally got me on the “common sense” thing. 😃 ---
**Author:** ![foolsguinea](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/foolsguinea/32/14751_2.png) [@foolsguinea](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/foolsguinea)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 10:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/77 "2012-07-16T22:28:27Z")
> [@MaxTheVool](#): > > Speaking as a democrat here, another thing that should be factored in is… if the republicans had the ability to steal the 2004 election, then how did Obama win the 2008 election? What happened to all their nefarious apparatus? The pro-corruption wing of the party was trying to keep John McCain out of the White House. Rush Limbaugh was literally telling his Dittoheads to stay home. \_ Those who think a conspiracy to steal a Presidential election is unlikely need to remember that it doesn’t have to be perfect to be attempted. One can try to steal Ohio and have it be moot; in that case the fraudster will be seen as having done no harm, and get away with it. One can try to steal Ohio and succeed. The victorious President will owe his position to the fraudster, who will get away with it. Why do you think there is a risk? Who in living memory has gone to jail for ballot-counting fraud? There’s motive, means, and opportunity. We should assume that it’s happening so we can deter it, not that it isn’t happening. ETA: [PolitiFact | Greg Abbott claims 50 election fraud convictions since 2002](http://www.politifact.com/texas/statements/2012/apr/17/greg-abbott/greg-abbott-claims-50-election-fraud-convictions-2/) OK, a few. Bet some public servants still take the risk, if they have motive, means, and opportunity. It’s a big country. Years ago, a Republican acquaintance told a story, and I forget the details, but something like this: She was working on counting votes for her precinct, where they needed a representative of each major party to count and one of the other Republicans said, “The Democrat isn’t here, you just pretend to be the Democrat.” She said no, that was unethical. But see, they thought they could get away with it. I hear rumors that my home county has had Republicans who work for the government who think nothing of using public time and resources to advocate for the Party. We had a favorite son go to prison for this behavior. I don’t know if it sunk in through their thick skulls why this is a problem, though they’d whinge for ages if Democrats did the same. ---
**Author:** ![crowmanyclouds](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/crowmanyclouds/32/19884_2.png) [@crowmanyclouds](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crowmanyclouds)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 10:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/78 "2012-07-16T22:43:09Z")
> [@foolsguinea](#): > > … Years ago, a Republican acquaintance told a story, and I forget the details, but something like this: She was working on counting votes for her precinct, where they needed a representative of each major party to count and one of the other Republicans said, “The Democrat isn’t here, you just pretend to be the Democrat.” She said no, that was unethical. But see, they thought they could get away with it. … William “Boss” Tweed in the _Gangs of New York_, **Killoran:** Monk’s already won by three thousand more votes than there are voters. **Tweed:** Only three? Make it twenty, thirty. We don’t need a victory, we need a Roman triumph. **Killoran:** We don’t have anymore ballots. **Tweed:** Remember the first rule of politics … ballots don’t make the results, the counters do. Keep counting. That some would prefer to focus on the ballots and ignore the counters should be telling. CMC fnord! ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 16, 2012, 11:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/79 "2012-07-16T23:41:04Z")
> [@Evil\_Captor](#): > > The report originated on Salon, Ibn. Your mind remains closed. When come back, bring something resembling an argument. I’m not sure why you’re engaging in personal insults since I haven’t insulted you. Now, if you’re upset that I mentioned truthers then you should have linked to the original article on Salon not to the truther website. ---
**Author:** ![Ibn\_Warraq](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/e19b73/32.png) [@Ibn\_Warraq](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Ibn_Warraq)\ **Post date:** [July 17, 2012, 12:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108/80 "2012-07-17T00:09:35Z")
> [@Frylock](#): > > Is that what you meant to link to? It’s just the same article **Evil Captor** was talking about, AFAICT. As he said, the idea that republican voters were refusing interviews, as presented in that article, isn’t a fact known independently, but rather, is a hypothesis created in order to explain the discrepancies. > > I mean–how would interviewers know that it was Republicans in particular who were refusing interviews? It’s actually not terribly hard to imagine that Democratic voters were being oversampled, particularly earlier in the day. Who votes early in the day, particularly since election day falls during the work week. The answer is older, retired voters and younger voters, college kids in particular. Now, which group of voters is more likely to be eager to talk to pollsters? Young eager beaver kids voting for the first time or older retirees who just want to get this done and go home. Moreover, remember the people doing the polling are often young people themselves. Now imagine you’re a 22-year old male pole taker, who are you more likely to want to talk to? A cute 19-year-old girl in a tank-top and short-shorts or some 72-year-old guy? In fact, I was following the election that day via the Internet and I remember one blogger, I think it was Matthew Yglesias but I might be wrong, noting in the early afternoon that he was concerned about women being oversampled because at one point 65-70% IIRC the respondents were female. So, I think a more accurate argument than Republicans avoided pollsters is that Democrats were over represented amongst groups more likely to talk to and be sought out by pollsters. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108.md?page=3) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-was-the-last-word-on-the-possibility-of-a-stolen-2004-election/628108.md?page=5)