# What will 2045 look like? **URL:** \ **Category:** Cafe Society\ **Created:** [December 31, 2014, 9:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646 "2014-12-31T21:42:37Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2015, 5:18pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/21 "2015-01-03T17:18:14Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And why not count planes and helicopters? People often say things like “I want a flying car, and I don’t mean a helicopter”, but they’re considerably more vague on what they _do_ mean. I think they mean a car that you drive on the street and park in your garage but can take off without a long runway or huge turbine fan blades. In other words, a hovercar like the movies. I think autonomous cars are a given. Maybe not all cars, but there will be many. Cities will be adapting to new supertowers like China is building, that encapsulate an entire neighborhood including outdoor parks, theaters, grocery stores, etc, all inside one building. You can walk or take elevators everywhere, no personal vehicles required, and spend 95% of your life without having to leave the tower. > [@astro](#): > > High energy lasers will supplement or replace many projectile weapons in military applications. I doubt it. You need high density energy production and storage to make this viable. A stack of lithium-ion batteries is not going to cut it. Besides being rapidly depleted, I don’t think you want to make that big of a target. Lithium is kinda unstable. Big boom. Unless pocket nuclear reactors are developed, it just ain’t happening. > [@](#): > > Medical science will be able to grow or manufacture replacement organs. Agreed. 3D printing technology is already being incorporated into tissue growth methods for building artificial tissues. The success of growing things like replacement ears on mice combined with the success of tissue scaffolding structures combined with 3D printing technology will revolutionize access to replacement organs and reduce or eliminate the need for antirejection regimines while making organ donation and tissue donation unnecessary. > [@DingoelGringo](#): > > A world of realists where all religion and other hate generating organizations will have faded away. Ridiculous. Even if by some miracle all religion could instantly be waved away tomorrow, the world would still be filled with hate. Humans seem to be hate generators. There are always plenty looking for reasons to not like the person next to them. All it takes is road rage to see that religion is unnecessary for hate to thrive. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2015, 6:20pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/22 "2015-01-03T18:20:59Z")
> [@](#): > > Quoth **Irishman** : > > I think they mean a car that you drive on the street and park in your garage but can take off without a long runway or huge turbine fan blades. In other words, a hovercar like the movies. So, a helicopter with wheels. There’s nothing difficult about that. > [@](#): > > Cities will be adapting to new supertowers like China is building, that encapsulate an entire neighborhood including outdoor parks, theaters, grocery stores, etc, all inside one building. You can walk or take elevators everywhere, no personal vehicles required, and spend 95% of your life without having to leave the tower. We’ve had the technology to do this for at least a century, and futurists have been predicting it for nearly that long, but it’s never yet caught on. What do you think has changed that will make it catch on in the next 30 years when it never did before? ---
**Author:** ![Max\_the\_Immortal](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/6de8d8/32.png) [@Max\_the\_Immortal](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Max_the_Immortal)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2015, 9:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/23 "2015-01-03T21:12:36Z")
Computers will be better. Food will not. Carbon emissions will have been brought to a lower level, and the worst of climate change will have been averted. Extreme weather will be more common, though. The gap between wealthy nations and poor nations will have narrowed. Most nations will be at least a bit wealthier than they are today. Worldwide religiosity will be lower than it is today, but not drastically so. More and more jobs will be automated. The Next Big thing people will debate will be “droids”: mostly-autonomous, non-sentient robots that can be configured to do a variety of jobs. Some left-wingers will call for a government monopoly on droids, so their labor can be regulated and used to support the people. Right-wingers will want private enterprises to be allowed to build and own as many droids as they please. ---
**Author:** ![Natlaw](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/n/a88e57/32.png) [@Natlaw](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Natlaw)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2015, 10:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/24 "2015-01-03T22:49:34Z")
> [@astro](#): > > … and of course economically viable fusion based power generation will be just around the corner. > [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](#): > > Fusion power will finally - finally! - be achieved. > [@Quartz](#): > > Fusion will still be 50 years away. It seems the original sense of ‘10 years away’ might have been ‘10 years at maximum funding’. This[fusion power time line estimate](http://hardware.slashdot.org/story/12/04/11/0435231/mit-fusion-researchers-answer-your-questions) actually is pretty close to 2045: > [@MIT Researchers](#): > > This is obviously an impossible question to answer, but we can give some thoughts about when it might happen, and why. First, the current official plan is that ITER will demonstrate net fusion gain (Q = 10, that is, ten times more fusion power out than heating power put in) in about 2028 or 2029. (Construction will be done by about 2022 but there’s a six-year shakedown process of steadily increasing the power and learning how to run the machine before the full-power fusion shots.) At that point, designs can begin for a “DEMO”, which is the fusion community’s term for a demonstration power plant. That would come online around 2040 (and would putt watts on the grid, although probably at an economic loss at first), and would be followed by (profitable, economic) commercial plants around 2050. > > This seems like a long time, and it is, but it’s important to understand that this is not the only possible path. You might say that we’re not a certain number of years away from a working fusion power plant, but rather about $80-billion away (in worldwide funding). We’ll get into this more in response to one of the other questions, but there are other experiments that could be done in parallel with ITER that would certainly speed up the goal of a demonstration power plant, if there were the money for it. Here is a graph based on a 1976 ERDA (predecessor to today’s DOE) fusion development plan, showing their four paths to a reactor, as well as a business-as-usual funding case that would never lead to a reactor, and in black is the actual funding amounts. (All values are adjusted to 2012 dollars.) ---
**Author:** ![Barking\_Dog](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/b/ccd318/32.png) [@Barking\_Dog](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Barking_Dog)\ **Post date:** [January 3, 2015, 11:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/25 "2015-01-03T23:16:16Z")
Most cars on the road will be electric and capable of self-driving. The last car manufactured with an internal combustion engine will roll off the line in 2032. As computers grow in power and shrink in size, thanks to advances in quatum computing, PCs, television, and smartphones as we know them will no longer exist. Work, communication, and entertainment will be handled by a single handy-dandy portable device. Possibly integrated with the body, making us all cyborgs. The average person can expect to live well into their second century as our understanding of senescence, plus improvements in lab grown organs, significantly slows down the aging process. Much like the Human Genome project, the Human Brain Project will have successfully mapped every neuron and synaptic connection in the human brain and simulated it in a virtual environment. The very wealthy begin paying to have their brains mapped, in the hopes of someday being reborn in some kind of robot body or virtual heaven after death. In 2046, aliens invade earth and enslave us all. The enact a forced breeding program among a quarter of all males, and are baffled as to why the program fails completely. The rest are put to work in the hydrogen mines of Rygel 7. ---
**Author:** ![DonLogan](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/51bf81/32.png) [@DonLogan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DonLogan)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2015, 8:36am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/26 "2015-01-04T08:36:22Z")
I think “Idiocracy” might not be too far off the mark. On the way to work at the sex robot-testing facility, you’ll be able to watch “Ow My Balls!” on the windshield of your self-driving car and have Carl’s Jr. delivered by drone. ---
**Author:** ![Jragon](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/e19b73/32.png) [@Jragon](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Jragon)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2015, 9:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/27 "2015-01-04T09:45:24Z")
I don’t know exactly when it will happen, but I expect that due to increasing, and increasingly cheap automation we’ll see a rough collapse of capitalist economic systems at a certain point. It won’t be pretty, I predict widescale revolts and riots, scores of people (far more than today) unemployed and unable to get employment. Probably worse than Great Depression levels. I’m an optimist and I think that we’ll evolve into some sort of post-capitalist society propped up by the automation. That doesn’t mean such a system will be perfect, in fact, I predict the people who were still gainfully employed during the crash will be part of a de-facto oligarchy of the new society, but I think it will be rather strikingly and unpredictably different as a society. There are, of course, other possibilities. It could fail to get better because the people in power don’t allow it to. Or we could pass (IMO, wrong) measures limiting automation and forcing companies to convert a certain percentage of automatable work to human work to band-aid fix the problem. In 30 years? I don’t know. It’s possible we’ll be in the middle of the collapse by then, but I think at that point we’ll probably only be at the point of starting to see the cracks turning into crumble. ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2015, 8:16pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/28 "2015-01-04T20:16:58Z")
Most of the economic problems with automation stem from the assumption that people want jobs. We don’t. Everyone needs a livelihood, and most people want a vocation, but those are not the same thing. For most of human history, livelihoods have required so much work that the only way you could have time to have a vocation was if you were lucky enough to be able to make your vocation your livelihood. In the automated future, however, it will be possible to make a vocation of writing poetry or whatever, even if you’re not very good at it, because the automation will be taking care of the livelihood. ---
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [January 4, 2015, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/29 "2015-01-04T21:47:22Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > In the automated future, however, it will be possible to make a vocation of writing poetry or whatever, even if you’re not very good at it, because the automation will be taking care of the livelihood. Nonsense. The automation is not going to be free–automation is simply cheaper than paying for people’s labor in many but not all situations. So your ideas only work if there is a guaranteed annual income–but support for welfare programs have been going down in the last couple or so decades. ---
**Author:** ![Irishman](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/i/b487fb/32.png) [@Irishman](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Irishman)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 5:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/30 "2015-01-05T05:45:41Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > So, a helicopter with wheels. There’s nothing difficult about that. Well, that helicopter has to have easily folded fan blades so they don’t scrape the walls parking in your home garage, and don’t catch on the trees while driving down the neighborhood streets. And it would be nice if it didn’t have a confusing system of pedals and stick to fly, but could have an easy steering wheel instead. > [@](#): > > We’ve had the technology to do this for at least a century, and futurists have been predicting it for nearly that long, but it’s never yet caught on. What do you think has changed that will make it catch on in the next 30 years when it never did before? How about the fact that China is actually building one. How about the concerns over global warming and urban traffic congestion driving questions about the infrastructure of modern cities and reliance on the automobile. ---
**Author:** ![iiandyiiii](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/iiandyiiii/32/7924_2.png) [@iiandyiiii](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/iiandyiiii)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 12:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/31 "2015-01-05T12:37:14Z")
Lots of wearable and integrated electronics. Pretty much everything is recorded. Nearly everyone wears cameras at all times. Most of the video goes to something like a private cloud. Self-driving cars, mostly electric. More polarized politics and religion. Fewer religious fundamentalists, but the ones that remain are just as vocal. A big chunk, maybe even a majority, of babies born are mixed race. Much less cash is used. Small denomination bills and coins are rare or even gone. Internet and TV are pretty much fused. Surprisingly, we still go out to the movies for blockbuster-type films. CGI is indistinguishable from real life. Sex robots. ---
**Author:** ![sbunny8](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/c77e96/32.png) [@sbunny8](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sbunny8)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/32 "2015-01-05T15:00:10Z")
> [@iiandyiiii](#): > > Lots of wearable and integrated electronics. > > Pretty much everything is recorded. Nearly everyone wears cameras at all times. Most of the video goes to something like a private cloud. > > Self-driving cars, mostly electric. > > More polarized politics and religion. Fewer religious fundamentalists, but the ones that remain are just as vocal. > > A big chunk, maybe even a majority, of babies born are mixed race. > > Much less cash is used. Small denomination bills and coins are rare or even gone. > > Internet and TV are pretty much fused. Surprisingly, we still go out to the movies for blockbuster-type films. CGI is indistinguishable from real life. > > Sex robots. I agree with everything on that list except the TV one. There will continue to be a market for passive leave-it-on-all-the-time-and-never-click-anything TV. If nothing else, you’ll still have them in waiting rooms at airports and auto repair shops. Also, there will be sex robots but they’ll probably be very expensive and far from ubiquitous. About like Lear jets now. Yes we have them, No most people never get to see one up close. My one addition to that list is **FedEx deliveries by drone**. You’ll order a package from [Amazon.com](http://Amazon.com) and 2 hours later a drone homes in on your cell phone, hovers six feet over your head, and drops the package into your outstretched arms. ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 3:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/33 "2015-01-05T15:49:34Z")
“When virtual reality is advanced enough that Joe Sixpack can make love to Claudia Schiffer in his rumpus room whenever he wants to, it’s gonna make crack look like Sanka.” - Dennis Miller ---
**Author:** ![Tuxie](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/ee59a6/32.png) [@Tuxie](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tuxie)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/34 "2015-01-05T17:25:14Z")
Bagel shaped silicon implants on the forehead. Gay immersion schools. _Pills that make your vagina have new car smell so guys think you are still a virgin_. ---
**Author:** ![Sir\_T-Cups](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ed655f/32.png) [@Sir\_T-Cups](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sir_T-Cups)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 6:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/35 "2015-01-05T18:36:20Z")
I don’t know about 2045 But in 2046 I think there will be a lot of 2 on 2, 4 on 4, and 8 on 8 action… ---
**Author:** ![Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/7cd45c/32.png) [@Elendil\_s\_Heir](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Elendil_s_Heir)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 6:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/36 "2015-01-05T18:46:39Z")
Where were you in '69? ---
**Author:** ![Tapiotar](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/t/3be4f8/32.png) [@Tapiotar](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Tapiotar)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 6:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/37 "2015-01-05T18:55:04Z")
> [@DingoelGringo](#): > > A world of realists where all religion and other hate generating organizations will have faded away. I’m curious as to how you think a world of realists will eliminate hate-generating organizations. ---
**Author:** ![Sir\_T-Cups](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/ed655f/32.png) [@Sir\_T-Cups](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sir_T-Cups)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 7:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/38 "2015-01-05T19:07:01Z")
> [@Sir\_T-Cups](#): > > I don’t know about 2045 > > But in 2046 I think there will be a lot of 2 on 2, 4 on 4, and 8 on 8 action… I realize now I meant 2042… > [@Tapiotar](#): > > I’m curious as to how you think a world of realists will eliminate hate-generating organizations. More like the realists will cause the problems of the “hate-generating” organizations ---
**Author:** ![Chronos](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/chronos/32/134_2.png) [@Chronos](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Chronos)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 10:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/39 "2015-01-05T22:14:41Z")
Or 2048, maybe? ---
**Author:** ![F.U.Shakespeare](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/aca169/32.png) [@F.U.Shakespeare](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/F.U.Shakespeare)\ **Post date:** [January 5, 2015, 10:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646/40 "2015-01-05T22:40:59Z")
> [@Chronos](#): > > And people will still say that it doesn’t really count, and will wonder when “true” AI will be achieved. This. I’m reminded of something Asimov said about what people would say in the future, along the lines of, “It’s true, computers can write novels and treat schizophrenia, but they can’t really think - only humans can do that”. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-2045-look-like/708646.md?page=3)