I believe it’s time for Hollywood to lift the ban and have A Country For Old Men.
True. The difference being that Spain will never allow an independence vote in Catalonia, whereas Scotland will be having one in the coming months.
If the ‘Better Together’ campaign keeps messing up, the next independent country will be Scotland. If not, I vote for (Iraqi) Kurdistan: a friend of mine is there doing research at the moment, and apparently it is pretty much an independent country de facto. A bit of political instability in Iraq, and they might just break away over night. Though maybe that’s just wishful thinking
I believe the Chinese have3 engineered a lot of Han immigration which pretty much rules out Tibet even becoming independent again. Taiwan also, there seems to be no desire by either the government thereof or by the Chinese government (obviously) for official independence. Those New Zealand territories are probably too small for a viable country. Catalonia won’t be allowed. Flanders probably won’t either. Polls show support mostly for union in Scotland, so if the Tories learn to shut up probably not Scotland either. Western Sahara is in the same boat as Tibet. All the locals hate the Kurds. No-one has any incentive to recognise the breakaway regions of Georgia or Moldova, nor Nagorno Karabakh. Kashmir won’t be released by either of the claimants.
Greenland, maybe. Currently a self-governing part of Denmark, and recently enriched by a Chinese-funded Uranium mining deal. Neglect and extreme poverty and deprivation could easily cause a desire for secession. Yes, Greenland next.
Wouldn’t Wallonia be created at the same time as Flanders? Unless they kept Belgium.
Is Catalonia really that possible vs. Basque country? Or is Spain more amenable to letting someone go if they don’t blow you up?
Considering how bellicose Russia is acting, I don’t see Chechnya doing much. They’ll try most likely. Abkhazia and South Ossetia are kind of the same deal as Crimea/Eastern Ukraine. I don’t know about Nagorno-Karabakh or Transnistria. Again, international recognition is an issue, especially by countries who don’t have their hands in these places.
Taiwan (RoC) - not any time soon. They have some recognition, but it’s mostly countries who have nothing to lose antagonizing PRC, like the Vatican or Central America or the Solomon Islands, which is apparently a country. The relationship with the US is complicated, but I don’t see the realpolitik part changing.
I bet it will be something weird like Brittany or Cornwall.
“Free Tibet? That gives me an idea! Hello, China? That’s right, all the tea…”
I think “never” might be too strong, what’s definitely certain is that some sort of attempt at negotiating the referendum might have had a possibility of success (even though with the current central government it would have been a really tiny one), whereas this “throw seny* out the window and our feet up in the air, proclaiming ‘we don’t care what you want!’” was certain to get the reply it keeps getting. The referendum will take place but the majority of the people who are pro-union will not vote as they don’t want to legitimize it and the central government won’t recognize it as valid (because, hello, it’s not).
I also don’t think the independentists are as sure of their success as many people outside believe, or as strongly supported. The “success” of those demonstrations a few months back required bussing people from one village to the next and counting them multiple times, a trick copied from the Basquist; their explanations on what will happen once independence is proclaimed are so incoherent that even my idiot, racist, insultingly-independentist aunt has realized they don’t make sense.
- Sense. Both in the “business sense” meaning and in the “ability to reason” meaning.
Random! And no…
I met some Cornish nationalists a while back but they all lived and worked in London.
Niue would be an interesting case. The world’s first economy built around internet porn.
De facto independent, and apparently even pretty nice - I met a guy who went there on vacation just for the heck of it, and he said that (for that part of the world, anyway) it was peaceful, prosperous, and pleasant.
That’s the strategy that some French-speaking people favour: if Flanders really, really can’t be prevented from becoming independant, Belgium will continue existing with Wallonia and Brussels. Then, enjoy the show as the Flemings have to reapply for EU membership. Not sure if that would work but it’s an idea that’s being discussed.
By the way, we have federal elections coming up in a few weeks and everybody agrees that they’re going to be absolutely decisive. Like the ones in 2010. And 2007. And 1999 :rolleyes:.
Maybe Bermuda, if they get tired of being a US colony. 
Am I wrong in assuming that Americans (myself included) have a difficult time understanding ethnic fighting? To me we’re all Americans. I wouldn’t know the difference between a Ukrainian and a Russian if my life depended on it.
I mean seriously, sometimes I feel Kirk when Frank Gorshin said, “Are you blind? I’m white on the left and black on the right.”
Imagine one state was settled by people from country X, next one over country Y, and they do little intermarriage or mingling. Have both keep close ties and vaguely consider themselves citizens of the other two countries.
Hell for shits and giggles throw in some language or religious barriers as well.
And you have a recipe for well people with not much at all in common.
Bermuda is British.
I think, by the smiley face, that it’s a reference to the tourist population.
Makes sense. Aunt and uncle honeymooned there.
If I had to bet $20 on anywhere, the obvious choice is Scotland. It’s your best bet because if the refendum passes, we know it WILL happen. Recently the “no” vote has led in the polls, but I will bet on a 40% shot of certain independence than any other country, where the process is going to be much more chaotic.
Quebec separatism is in terrible political shape right now and is suffering from demographic trends that suggest its long term prospects aren’t great, either.
Flanders is an interesting choice but there is no imminent plan to maybe do it, a la Scotland.
Wisconsin just popped up in another thread. Nevada, Texas?
Unless a new CSA were formed (i.e. a bunch of states together), I can’t see many states being able to exist as independent countries. California and Texas maybe, most others would be heavily dependent on imports. Even then, might not come off whole as the water supply flows south. Also, man can’t live on cheese and fried candy bars. 