# What will be the outcome of the "Second Iranian Revolution"? **URL:** \ **Category:** Great Debates\ **Created:** [November 30, 2002, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648 "2002-11-30T17:39:21Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 16\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 5:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/1 "2002-11-30T17:39:21Z")
[Anti-government demonstrations in Iran](http://www.christiansciencemonitor.com/2002/1129/p01s04-wosc.html) suggest that the current regime is in trouble. > [@](#): > > **In Iran, a ‘second revolution’ gathers steam** > > _Ten days of pro-democracy protests spur militants to counter with a show of conservative force in the streets._ > > …The fierce dedication to Islam, the Iraq-Iran war, and the 1979 revolution once made Bolooki’s family quintessential supporters of Iran’s conservative clerics. But their desire for reform is indicative of a significant change below the surface of the political battle now playing itself out in Tehran. > > “It’s like a volcano coming up, which you can’t see until it blows.” says one Iranian analyst here. > > Hardline supporters of the regime vow to bring five million militants onto the streets today, in a climactic show of strength designed to counter 10 days of prodemocracy student protests this month. > > More Iranians are choosing sides in an explosive debate that pits Islamic rule - defined by Iran’s unelected conservatives, who have held key levers of power since the Islamic revolution - against popular democracy. > > Some see the building tension as an indication that another revolution is coming. But the views of once-bedrock pillars of the regime - like Bolooki’s conservative family - signal that Iran’s second revolution, quietly but surely, is already under way. > \ > Two events this year frame the debate in Iran. The first was President Bush’s labeling of Iran as part of an “axis of evil.” The second was the resignation of a senior prayer leader in Isfahan in July and the devastating accusations he made in an open letter. > > “When I remember the promises and pledges of the revolution, I tremble like a willow thinking of my faith,” wrote Ayatollah Jaluddin Taheri, a long-venerated cleric who has since been placed under house arrest. > > Ayatollah Taheri struck at the ruling clerics as corrupt hypocrites and a “gang of shroud-wearers,” whose “deviations” were undermining Islamic rule. He accused Khamenei of being propped up by “louts and fascists, who sharpen the teeth of the crocodile of power.” [ul][_]Will the Mullahs be overthrown? [_]Will a democratic government with real power be established? [_]Will a military leader conquer the country and rule as a dictatorship? [_]Will the Mullahs overcome this “second revolution” and retain power? Will they share power with the elected lay government?[/ul] ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 6:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/2 "2002-11-30T18:08:48Z")
Once again, those nasty student protestors are stirring up trouble. I cannot predict the future, only cheer from the sidelines and hope thier courage and optimism can outlast the Forces of Darkness. Hooray for the hippies! We were right then, we’re right now! We stand ready to welcome Brother **december** into our ranks! Freak freely, bro! Here’s your beads, perhaps this pachouli can cover up that Old Spice. No, no, you inhale from _this_ end. Far out. ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 6:54pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/3 "2002-11-30T18:54:34Z")
I expect those protesting for greater freedom will be ground to dust under the heels of the powers that be in Iran. Of course, that will result in the diminution of the middle-class, and the loss of talent for future scientists, engineers, and those people who will know how things work. But the mullahs will care about that not one whit. ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 10:27pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/4 "2002-11-30T22:27:57Z")
> [@](#): > > Iran’s hardline judiciary has postponed the trial of four student leaders of the largest pro-reform protests for three years to defuse the tension at the university campuses, a student leader said on Saturday. > > The four organizers were arrested on Tuesday and released next day but had been ordered to appear before a Tehran branch of the Revolutionary Court on Saturday to face charges of acting against national security. > > The arrests followed two weeks of almost daily rallies to protest the death sentence given to dissident academic Hashem Aghajari for questioning the clerical establishment. [http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20021130\_93.html](http://abcnews.go.com/wire/World/reuters20021130_93.html) ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 10:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/5 "2002-11-30T22:50:43Z")
The mullahs have the guns, & the secret police. The kids have optimism, & thrown rocks. Bush’s Cold War Stooges won’t be quite able to grasp that “student radical” does **not** equal “communist insurgent”. So, forget about US aid. ---
**Author:** ![Charlie\_Tan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/charlie_tan/32/12582_2.png) [@Charlie\_Tan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Charlie_Tan)\ **Post date:** [November 30, 2002, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/6 "2002-11-30T23:07:32Z")
Actually - you huys might want to take the trouble and read [http://www.iran-daily.com](http://www.iran-daily.com). All in English, but it’s pdf’s so might take a while. It’s always fascinating to read about this part of the world from a very diferent perspective. ---
**Author:** ![hawthorne](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/c89c15/32.png) [@hawthorne](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/hawthorne)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2002, 11:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/7 "2002-12-01T11:34:28Z")
> [@](#): > > _Posted by december_ > Will a democratic government with real power be established? > […] > Will they [the mullahs] share power with the elected lay government? Well yes. The reformist President Khatami (his official page is [here](http://www.president.ir/)was first elected in May 1997 and survives. So far he has managed to keep the pressure on the clerics without huge turmoil - an impressive political feat. It remains a delicate struggle. ---
**Author:** ![jjimm](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/j/ba8739/32.png) [@jjimm](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/jjimm)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2002, 12:12pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/8 "2002-12-01T12:12:57Z")
This is excellent news. Though who knows if it’ll go Tiananmen or Belgrade… > [@](#): > > **The mullahs have the guns, & the secret police.** So did the Shah. Fingers crossed. ---
**Author:** ![dave316](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/76d3ee/32.png) [@dave316](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dave316)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2002, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/9 "2002-12-01T23:07:07Z")
they would hit the foreign aid lotto. U.S. companies would love to go back to Iran and if the new government was a democracy the United States would send even more money ---
**Author:** ![Early\_Out](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/6f9a4e/32.png) [@Early\_Out](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Early_Out)\ **Post date:** [December 1, 2002, 11:13pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/10 "2002-12-01T23:13:32Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Bosda Di’Chi of Tricor \* > \*\*Bush’s Cold War Stooges won’t be quite able to grasp that “student radical” does **not** equal “communist insurgent”. So, forget about US aid. \*\* Actually, I think U.S. aid could be counterproductive. If the U.S. were seen to be supporting the reformers, it could strengthen the mullahs’ hand. Our history of meddling in these kinds of situations is not exactly heartening. ---
**Author:** ![Dreaming\_of\_Maria\_Callas](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/f14d63/32.png) [@Dreaming\_of\_Maria\_Callas](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Dreaming_of_Maria_Callas)\ **Post date:** [December 2, 2002, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/11 "2002-12-02T08:45:21Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by Early Out \* > \*\*Actually, I think U.S. aid could be counterproductive. If the U.S. were seen to be supporting the reformers, it could strengthen the mullahs’ hand. Our history of meddling in these kinds of situations is not exactly heartening. \*\* Especially considering that it was the US who overthrew the democratically elected government of Mossadeq in 1953 and installed the shah as sole authorithy, whose reign was characterised by some of the biggest human rights violations the world has ever seen. I don’t think anyone in Iran has much reason to trust the US. I’m not a crazy anti-American here, I’m just saying I think they have reasons to look elsewhere for help. UnuMondo ---
**Author:** ![december](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/838e76/32.png) [@december](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/december)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2002, 12:58pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/12 "2002-12-06T12:58:22Z")
[Call to Demonstrate on Azar 16 [December 7]](http://www.iran-daneshjoo.org/cgi-bin/smccdinews/viewnews.cgi?category=4&id=1039097413) Let’s see how many people show up tomorrow. BTW, according to the Wall St. Journal, the most popular television program in Iran is _Baywatch_. [http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1039128720676589793,00.html?mod=opinion](http://online.wsj.com/article/0,,SB1039128720676589793,00.html?mod=opinion) (requires paid subscription) ---
**Author:** ![SuaSponte](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/67e7ee/32.png) [@SuaSponte](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SuaSponte)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2002, 2:44pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/13 "2002-12-06T14:44:06Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by UnuMondo \* > \*\*Especially considering that it was the US who overthrew the democratically elected government of Mossadeq in 1953 and installed the shah as sole authorithy, whose reign was characterised by some of the biggest human rights violations the world has ever seen. \*\* **UnuMundo,** one must be careful with superlatives. Alleging that the evil that was the Shah’s reign committed “some of the biggest human rights violations the world has ever seen,” belittles such horrors as the Holocaust, the Armenian genocide, the Rwanda genocide, the Killing Fields of Cambodia, the Rape of Nanking and the Chinese occupation of China, the Soviet Stalin-induced famine of the 1930s, the Cultural Revolution, Stalin’s purges, and so on and so on. And all that just in the 20th Century. If one wished to quanitify human rights violators, the Shah probably would probably barely make it into the top 50 of the 20th Century, and would be listed under “other” on the all-time list. The Shah should have been hung from the highest yardarm, but it is a disservice to the memory of the atrocities I mentioned to include the Shah in the list. Horrible as it is to say, the Shah and SAVAK were rank amateurs. Sua ---
**Author:** ![Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/qadgop_the_mercotan/32/83_2.png) [@Qadgop\_the\_Mercotan](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Qadgop_the_Mercotan)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2002, 2:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/14 "2002-12-06T14:49:26Z")
> [@](#): > > \*Originally posted by SuaSponte \* > \*\*the Chinese occupation of China \*\* They _occupied_ China?? ---
**Author:** ![Maeglin](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/8baadc/32.png) [@Maeglin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Maeglin)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2002, 3:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/15 "2002-12-06T15:11:54Z")
> [@](#): > > Actually, I think U.S. aid could be counterproductive. If the U.S. were seen to be supporting the reformers, it could strengthen the mullahs’ hand. Our history of meddling in these kinds of situations is not exactly heartening. I doubt it. Consider the source of most of the protest comes from. 40% of Iran’s population falls in the 15-40 age range, and less than _half_ of them have jobs. The regime only counts the _men_: 1.5 million women enter the job market every year with absolutely no prospects for finding employment. Almost all of the men and many of the women are highly educated, and are well aware of westernization and liberalization, for either they remember some of the benefits of the Shah’s regime or their parents do. Not only do they bear witness to falling GDP and infrastructural ruin, many remember what it’s like to be able to be permitted to talk to young people of the opposite sex in public. Importation of foreign capital is just about the only chance Iran has of rebuilding it’s economy and employing millions of restless, educated youth. Despite the US’ somewhat checkered history in the Persian Gulf, I see no reason that offers of US aid will turn heretofore reformers or even neutrals over to the mullahs. ---
**Author:** ![SentientMeat](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/43a26b/32.png) [@SentientMeat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/SentientMeat)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2002, 3:33pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-the-outcome-of-the-second-iranian-revolution/139648/16 "2002-12-06T15:33:05Z")
An anecdote which illustrates \*\* Maeglin’s \*\* regarding the chasm between the mullahs and the youth: An Iranian friend of mine returned to Iran last year after leaving for Britain in 1979, when he was about 7. He went to a party, arranged by mobile phone. Everyone was pissed stupid, smoking \* opium \* and, eventually, knobbing each other while my friend stood with his brother in the kitchen, mouth open. People said " You must do this all the time in Europe yes?" and when he went “What? No!” they thought he was joking.