# What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 1
**Author:** ![PastTense](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/pasttense/32/14550_2.png) [@PastTense](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/PastTense)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/1 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")
On another thread Little Nemo is suggesting China (I suppose because he called up the President of Taiwan to chat). Or will China just make some nasty speeches and then more or less ignore it–assuming Trump is too dumb to know any better? Cuba is another possibility, but the termination of diplomatic relations with them won’t be that big of a deal since the thaw was so recent. Since Trump is so buddy-buddy with Putin I don’t see a big crisis with them for at least a year or so. Syria is the most relevant here. I think Iran. Trump has lots of anti-Iran advisers. So I see a quick re-imposition of the embargo. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 2:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/2 "2016-12-03T02:56:05Z")
Wait no longer. Apparently he’s just run the risk of pissing off China. > **[China lodges complaint over Trump-Taiwan call | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/02/politics/donald-trump-taiwan/index.html)** > > China's Foreign Ministry has lodged a complaint with the United States over a phone call between President-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan's President that has overturned decades of diplomatic protocol. And, of course, he Tweeted about it. ---
**Author:** ![GreenWyvern](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/greenwyvern/32/2834_2.png) [@GreenWyvern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/GreenWyvern)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 2:58am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/3 "2016-12-03T02:58:03Z")
The first crisis could be anything. The whole world already knows that Trump is a fool. Shrewd leaders everywhere are already figuring out the best ways to manipulate him and take advantage of him. America’s influence in the world is about to drop drastically. ---
**Author:** ![Kent\_Clark](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/kent_clark/32/105_2.png) [@Kent\_Clark](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Kent_Clark)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:02am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/4 "2016-12-03T03:02:22Z")
I heard at least one talking head predict things will heat up between India and Pakistan, forcing Trump to take sides. Idle speculation, but let’s throw it in the mix. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:09am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/5 "2016-12-03T03:09:06Z")
> [@kunilou](#): > > I heard at least one talking head predict things will heat up between India and Pakistan, forcing Trump to take sides. > > Idle speculation, but let’s throw it in the mix. Simple. He’ll side with where he has more properties. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 5:56am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/6 "2016-12-03T05:56:08Z")
The real question is how fast will the Republican’s impeach him and install President Pence? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 6:04am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/7 "2016-12-03T06:04:43Z")
Possibly a big arms sale to Taiwan. Sure, the US has been selling arms to Taiwan for decades, but given that Trump is so inexperienced and also easily manipulated/swayed, Beijing may well opt for an utterly over-the-top response in retaliation for a fairly moderate arms sale to Taiwan (i.e., the sale of 66 Lockheed Martin F-16s that Taiwan’s requested since a decade ago,) hoping that it will “set the tone” for the remainder of Trump’s presidency. Kind of like an NFL defense blitzing a rookie quarterback from the very beginning of his first game, trying to rattle him. Now I’m curious as to what counts as each POTUS’ first foreign crisis, of the modern era. Reagan: KAL 007 and Grenada? Bush I: Panama? Clinton: Black Hawk Down? Bush II: China and the EP-3 spy plane collision Obama: Crimea? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 6:05am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/8 "2016-12-03T06:05:53Z")
> [@China\_Guy](#): > > The real question is how fast will the Republican’s impeach him and install President Pence? This, I think, may be one of those “The majority silently wants it, but nobody dares to be that one person to initiate it” things. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:03pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/9 "2016-12-03T15:03:21Z")
I wouldn’t be surprised if he flies to Taiwan, walks down to the coast nearest the mainland, and shakes his fist in that direction saying “take that motherfuckers!” This ROC thing is strictly amateur hour, and now the orange lizard wants to say that Taiwan called him. Right. They fucking know better, he doesn’t. ---
**Author:** ![Lightnin](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/lightnin/32/180_2.png) [@Lightnin](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Lightnin)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:09pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/10 "2016-12-03T15:09:16Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > This, I think, may be one of those “The majority silently wants it, but nobody dares to be that one person to initiate it” things. I’m sure they’re all nervously avoiding eye contact with each other and collectively hoping that a Democrat will get the ball rolling. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/11 "2016-12-03T15:22:14Z")
Trump is doing the right thing by standing up to China. He may be doing it accidentally, but he’s doing it. ---
**Author:** ![BobLibDem](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/boblibdem/32/3149_2.png) [@BobLibDem](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/BobLibDem)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/12 "2016-12-03T15:34:27Z")
If “right thing” is inciting an invasion of Taiwan, then he is indeed. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 3:55pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/13 "2016-12-03T15:55:48Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Trump is doing the right thing by standing up to China. He may be doing it accidentally, but he’s doing it. Since his actions appear more out of ignorance and lack of policy understanding rather than a deliberate and knowing choice (RE: his tweets that “Taiwan called him” and not vice versa compared to the Gov. of Taiwan’s statements that the phone conversation happened through mutual arrangements), it’s not much of a “stand.” China’s mostly mild reaction so far indicates that they seem to think it was partially a Taiwanese trick and partially due to Trump being out of his depth. ---
**Author:** ![DinoR](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/dinor/32/2821_2.png) [@DinoR](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/DinoR)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 4:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/14 "2016-12-03T16:01:56Z")
Syria. As soon as he’s done uttering “So Help Me God” at the end of his oath it’s in play. There’s an ongoing humanitarian crisis. We have troops engaged on the ground and in the air. The situation has Russia, Turkey, Iran, and to a lesser extent, Saudi Arabia all trying to swing the endstate to support their own national interests. There;s no clear agreement between all those external powers on where we’re going. Or do we just want the first NEW crisis? ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 4:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/15 "2016-12-03T16:41:47Z")
That’s an interesting wrinkle, are we only going to count the shit he disturbs _after_ he soils a Bible by putting his hand upon it? ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/16 "2016-12-03T17:25:12Z")
> [@BobLibDem](#): > > If “right thing” is inciting an invasion of Taiwan, then he is indeed. If a mere phone call can “incite an invasion of Taiwan,” then may I just say that \*China \*is the one that needs to take its psychiatric meds, not Taiwan or the US? Reminds me of how [North Korea once threatened military attack over South Korea lighting a Christmas tree.](http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2014/12/02/north_and_south_korea_differ_on_christmas_tree_decoration.html) ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 5:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/17 "2016-12-03T17:36:02Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > If a mere phone call can “incite an invasion of Taiwan,” then may I just say that \*China \*is the one that needs to take its psychiatric meds, not Taiwan or the US? True. But if China feels the need to shift to a more active policy of “reuniting” Taiwan to the mainland and we have to respond, does it really matter if China’s motivations are reasonable or not? The Sino-American agreement on Taiwan is based on a large amount of hypocrisy. China says Taiwan is part of China and says it has the right to occupy Taiwan any time it wishes. The United States doesn’t want Taiwan to be invaded. Our positions are fundamentally opposed. But for the sake of working together on other issues, we’ve agreed to essentially ignore Taiwan. China “postpones” reunification and the United States pretends Taiwan isn’t an independent country. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 9:10pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/18 "2016-12-03T21:10:07Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Trump is doing the right thing by standing up to China. He may be doing it accidentally, but he’s doing it. China already lodges complaint. > **[China lodges complaint over Trump-Taiwan call | CNN Politics](https://www.cnn.com/2016/12/02/politics/donald-trump-taiwan/index.html)** > > China’s Foreign Ministry has lodged a complaint with the United States over a phone call between President-elect Donald Trump and Taiwan’s President that has overturned decades of diplomatic protocol. Making China an enemy is a major mistake. Major. China has 619,000,000 people fit to serve with almost 20,000,000 reaching military age annually. Active front line personnel, 2.3 million, active reserve personnel 2.3 million. Add to that North Korea’s 1.2 million active soldiers, and 7.7 million reservist. you get the picture. Keep China happy, they keep NK on the sane side of the line, and we live happy. Of course, Trump will fuck this up. He has no idea what they are thinking and he never will. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 9:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/19 "2016-12-03T21:47:05Z")
Shit, who does? About all we do know is this silly little diplomatic dance we do over Taiwan seems to prevent a whole lot of folks from dying. Peace, love and understanding doesn’t seem to be on the agenda, so I’m willing to settle. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 10:06pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/20 "2016-12-03T22:06:55Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Making China an enemy is a major mistake. China is already the enemy. They have been the enemy for at least the past 15 years. [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=2)