# What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 2
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 10:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/21 "2016-12-03T22:25:03Z")
Either we’re pissing off China and we are bluffing, which seems pointless. Or we’re pissing off China and we’re not bluffing, which is insane. ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [December 3, 2016, 11:07pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/22 "2016-12-03T23:07:30Z")
The South Korean President is facing impeachment. There are vast gulfs between South Korean thinking & North Korean views. North Korea may interpret this as the SK Government collapsing, & storm the border, expecting to be “welcomed as liberators”. ---
**Author:** ![Fair\_Rarity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/fair_rarity/32/153_2.png) [@Fair\_Rarity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fair_Rarity)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 1:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/23 "2016-12-04T01:11:09Z")
I’m going to with Russia. Gotta stick with the classics. It might be Russia by proxy, but I think we’ll see by Valentine’s Day how much of a Putin puppet he is. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Pig](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/l/c57346/32.png) [@Little\_Pig](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Pig)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 1:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/24 "2016-12-04T01:47:34Z")
I fully expect the comb over clown to put all of us into a major world of hurt within the next 12 months. ---
**Author:** ![dasmoocher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/dbc845/32.png) [@dasmoocher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/dasmoocher)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 2:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/25 "2016-12-04T02:06:19Z")
Having Melinia blueball him for his “just grab their pussy” policy. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 2:10am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/26 "2016-12-04T02:10:40Z")
I don’t think anyone here expects Trump to handle ANY sensitive international situation properly. He’s incapable of doing so and too f’ing stupid to take the advice of those who could. He’s Mr. Magoo leading a boy scout troop through a minefield when it comes to foreign policy. ---
**Author:** ![China\_Guy](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/779978/32.png) [@China\_Guy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/China_Guy)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 2:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/27 "2016-12-04T02:53:39Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > I’m sure they’re all nervously avoiding eye contact with each other and collectively hoping that a Democrat will get the ball rolling. Republicans have majorities in both houses of congress. They need to step up and install President Pence. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 4:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/28 "2016-12-04T04:19:17Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > China already lodges complaint. > [http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/02/politics/donald-trump-taiwan/index.html](http://www.cnn.com/2016/12/02/politics/donald-trump-taiwan/index.html) > > Making China an enemy is a major mistake. Major. > > China has 619,000,000 people fit to serve with almost 20,000,000 reaching military age annually. Active front line personnel, 2.3 million, active reserve personnel 2.3 million. > Add to that North Korea’s 1.2 million active soldiers, and 7.7 million reservist. you get the picture. Keep China happy, they keep NK on the sane side of the line, and we live happy. > > Of course, Trump will fuck this up. He has no idea what they are thinking and he never will. It doesn’t really matter how many _people_ China has, in terms of population or in their military. What it needs are _ships_ and / or _aircraft_ (and to a lesser extent, missiles). If Taiwan / USA defeat the PLAN and PLAAF, they can’t conquer Taiwan. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 4:29am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/29 "2016-12-04T04:29:00Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > China is already the enemy. They have been the enemy for at least the past 15 years. They are a competitor, but not at this point really an enemy. They are US’s third largest trade partner. Fucking up that relationship is likely to cause a recession in the US and probably the rest of the world. Trump is so extremely inexperienced and incompetent in foreign affairs that he’s very likely to fuck things up. He’s already committed three or four significant diplomatic faux-pas and he’s not even inaugurated yet. I expect we’ll be seeing a diplomatic crisis of the month once he is. ---
**Author:** ![sweepkick](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/s/87869e/32.png) [@sweepkick](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/sweepkick)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 4:51am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/30 "2016-12-04T04:51:57Z")
> [@Lightnin](#): > > I’m sure they’re all nervously avoiding eye contact with each other and collectively hoping that a Democrat will get the ball rolling. I hope the Dems are smarter than that. We might have a modicum of hope that Trump won’t be a simple rubber stamp for some of the crazy crap that’s most assuredly to come across his desk from Congress … particularly in relation to Social Security, Medicare, and the ACA. I’m pretty positive, though, that Pence would be more than happy to pass these on through like last night’s wet burrito. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 4:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/31 "2016-12-04T04:53:46Z")
> [@sweepkick](#): > > I hope the Dems are smarter than that. We might have a modicum of hope that Trump won’t be a simple rubber stamp for some of the crazy crap that’s most assuredly to come across his desk from Congress … particularly in relation to Social Security, Medicare, and the ACA. I’m pretty positive, though, that Pence would be more than happy to pass these on through like last night’s wet burrito. I find it entertaining that Democrats can’t seem to decide among themselves if Trump is the crazy one or if they’re more scared of “regular Republicans”. ---
**Author:** ![Little\_Nemo](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/little_nemo/32/3120_2.png) [@Little\_Nemo](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Little_Nemo)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/32 "2016-12-04T05:08:53Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > It doesn’t really matter how many _people_ China has, in terms of population or in their military. What it needs are _ships_ and / or _aircraft_ (and to a lesser extent, missiles). If Taiwan / USA defeat the PLAN and PLAAF, they can’t conquer Taiwan. How about DF-26 anti-ship missiles? China has those. They’re designed to sink aircraft carriers. China started deploying them last year. Is the United States going to send a carrier group into the Taiwan Strait if China has the capability of sinking it? ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:11am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/33 "2016-12-04T05:11:59Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I find it entertaining that Democrats can’t seem to decide among themselves if Trump is the crazy one or if they’re more scared of “regular Republicans”. Trump is the crazy one AND what “regular Republicans” will do is just as scary because the ones in charge are utter assholes. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:12am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/34 "2016-12-04T05:12:05Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I find it entertaining that Democrats can’t seem to decide among themselves if Trump is the crazy one or if they’re more scared of “regular Republicans”. Trump is the crazy one, but I’m much more scared of “regular Republicans.” The “regular Republicans” can do the most damage here at home. The crazy one can accidentally (or through sheer stupidity and ineptitude) cause an international incident of some kind. Which I suppose could lead to WWIII and the destruction of the planet… nah, I’m still more scared of the regular Republicans. **HurricaneDitka** , the fact that you compare the “crazy one” to “regular Republicans” perfectly expresses my point about “normalizing” Trump’s crazy behavior. I just wrote you a massive post on another thread in response to your question about the normalizing thing. But I see you already do have a perfect grasp of the concept. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:17am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/35 "2016-12-04T05:17:16Z")
Well, its true that in history, geniuses are often mistaken for batshit zealots. Unfortunately, the truth is more often the other way round. ---
**Author:** ![Quartz](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/quartz/32/267_2.png) [@Quartz](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Quartz)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/36 "2016-12-04T08:37:49Z")
> [@Colibri](#): > > They are a competitor, but not at this point really an enemy. Really? Try being in business where the Chinese are a ‘competitor’. They **will** try to hack you. Standing up to them now is better than having to smack them later. > [@](#): > > They are US’s third largest trade partner. Guess who was Germany’s largest trade partner before WW2? ---
**Author:** ![Sage\_Rat](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/sage_rat/32/399_2.png) [@Sage\_Rat](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Sage_Rat)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:45am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/37 "2016-12-04T08:45:31Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Guess who was Germany’s largest trade partner before WW2? I’m not sure that means what you think it means. The US didn’t go to war with Germany during WWII until we were attacked by the Japanese, two years after the war began. Our trade relationship may well explain that extreme reluctance, despite some knowledge of the atrocities that were occurring and the special relationship between the US and Britain. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 12:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/38 "2016-12-04T12:48:28Z")
If you’re referring to what crisis he’ll cause, probably none. Talking to Taiwan is a big nothing, it’s just making explicit what already exists in reality but we don’t talk about. We are allied with Taiwan and we’ll defend them, and we sell them arms. A taboo on talking to them is stupid, especially coming from the side that said “What possible harm could there be in just talking? It’s stupid to not talk to countries.” ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 3:00pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/39 "2016-12-04T15:00:24Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > It doesn’t really matter how many _people_ China has, in terms of population or in their military. What it needs are _ships_ and / or _aircraft_ (and to a lesser extent, missiles). If Taiwan / USA defeat the PLAN and PLAAF, they can’t conquer Taiwan. China is far stronger, in the sense of military hardware, than you think they are. > **[2024 China Military Strength](https://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.php?country_id=china)** > > Detailing the current military strength of China including air force, army, navy, financials and manpower. They could roll over Taiwan before the US could turn a carrier around. Same thing in Korea. If NK mobilized its 8 million reserve and active troops, they could roll over SK before the news hit the US. If Trump has any brains at all, he’d apologize to the Chinese for his indiscretion, whether he believes it or not. He’d do this before he pisses them off again. (and again…) I’ve watched a Vblogger from China for about a year now. I’ve learned there are two things the average Chinese find distasteful. Talking about politics, which they do not do, and not simply because some of that talk could land them in trouble. And the China Taiwan problem. 2 areas to avoid if you don’t want to piss off a Chinese person. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 3:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/40 "2016-12-04T15:43:22Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > They could roll over Taiwan before the US could turn a carrier around. No, this depends heavily on what kind of war is being waged. People frequently point to China’s 2-million-strong military and think that on a bean-counting basis that that alone will overwhelm Taiwan, but in order for an invasion to succeed that 100 miles of water of the Taiwan Strait needs to be crossed. The parallels to Operation Sea Lion and how difficult it would have been for Nazi Germany to conquer Britain in WWII, are very real here. China has very limited amphibious capability. Islands are historically difficult to invade - the British Isles have not been successfully invaded since 1066, nearly a millennia ago, for instance - and as long as the defender can sink sufficient ships or shoot down sufficient aircraft, the invasion cannot succeed. The coastline of Taiwan is in many areas inhospitable for amphibious landing and it would be much easier for Taiwan to muster reinforcements to the point of attack than for China to do so; and compounding the issue for Beijing is that often tactics favor the defense, and the attacker must muster greater forces in a favorable ratio at the point of attack, relative to the defender, for the beachhead to even last long. Now, if on the other hand, China utilizes a blockade, then that stands a significantly higher chance of succeeding - Taiwan has very limited ASW capability, for instance. But since many people believe that an invasion of Taiwan would be a piece of cake for China since “numerical superiority” - it just doesn’t work like that, not with the geography and logistics involved. Wars are not fought these days on a bean-counting basis. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=1) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=3)