# What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 3
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 3:45pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/41 "2016-12-04T15:45:19Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > … Talking to Taiwan is a big nothing, it’s just making explicit what already exists in reality but we don’t talk about… So, when she asks you if it makes her butt look big, you naturally answer, “No, dear, it does not make your butt _look_ big, because your butt _is_ big, and no such illusion occurs.”. Of course, international diplomacy is a much grander scale, especially between two potentially hostile powers. In that instance, divorce court is not the worst plausible result. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 4:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/42 "2016-12-04T16:04:48Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > If you’re referring to what crisis he’ll cause, probably none. Talking to Taiwan is a big nothing, it’s just making explicit what already exists in reality but we don’t talk about. We are allied with Taiwan and we’ll defend them, and we sell them arms. A taboo on talking to them is stupid, especially coming from the side that said “What possible harm could there be in just talking? It’s stupid to not talk to countries.” This is precisely what I mean when I say we must not “normalize” Trump’s crazy behavior. We must not piece-by-piece get okay with the dufus-like bullshit he is pulling. Whether or not the phone call was a big nothing is, in itself, _completely beside the point_, \*\*except \*\*that it illustrates his impulsive, uninformed, toddler-like, shoot-from-the-hip style. If he wants to talk to Taiwan on the phone, fine. That may very well be a big nothing, and in fact, might turn out to be a diplomatic coup. But not the way he did it. The way he did it was pure craziness and screamed ignorance, naivete, poor judgment, and lack of respect for the current President. And it screamed it for all the world to see. This is not the way the President of the United States should behave, so stop calling it a big nothing. He participated in this phone call without informing the White House. That’s a right out insult and violation of common courtesy, let alone protocol. He’s not President yet. He can’t do this. But he doesn’t know he can’t do this because 1) he is ignorant of just about everything, especially how to behave, and 2) he won’t be told what to do. Stop refusing to see his crazy behavior as crazy, all of you Trump apologists. ---
**Author:** ![Colibri](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/colibri/32/1841_2.png) [@Colibri](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Colibri)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:22pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/43 "2016-12-04T17:22:44Z")
> [@Quartz](#): > > Really? Try being in business where the Chinese are a ‘competitor’. They **will** try to hack you. > > Standing up to them now is better than having to smack them later. Fine with me. The resulting recession will guarantee the Dems taking over Congress in 2018. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/44 "2016-12-04T17:25:11Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > If NK mobilized its 8 million reserve and active troops, they could roll over SK before the news hit the US. This is also wildly simplistic. First, it is very unlikely that North Korea would be able to mobilize all of its regular army, let alone its reserve forces, into positions to invade without South Korea and the U.S. detecting this. Given the mindfields that permeate the DMZ, even with any undiscovered NK tunnels to bypass them, the avenues of attack for large scale invasion columns are going to be few and far between. Further, given the NK air force’s woefully antiquated equipment and distrust of pilota for fear of defection, they would have a near impossible job gaining air superiority in order to protect any invasion armored and infantry columns from being attacked and obliterated. Given that NK couldn’t conquer the South in a few weeks, let alone months, in 1950, there is no indication they could do so quicker now with the South Korean military much more prepared and advanced and more than a tiny U.S. there to help coordinate defense. U.S. air bases in Japan and Guam have fighter and bomber aircraft that can surge forward to assist SK and there are prepositioned depots in Japan with supplies and ordnance precisely designed for large scale forces to be quickly routed through from the U.S. on the way to Korea. Aside from air superiority, NK numbers don’t compensate for their lack of operational experience, old equipment, and most of all their likely far inferior logistics capability to supply an extended invasion. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:26pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/45 "2016-12-04T17:26:51Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > China is far stronger, in the sense of military hardware, than you think they are. > [2024 China Military Strength](http://www.globalfirepower.com/country-military-strength-detail.asp?country_id=china) > > They could roll over Taiwan before the US could turn a carrier around. Same thing in Korea. If NK mobilized its 8 million reserve and active troops, they could roll over SK before the news hit the US. > > If Trump has any brains at all, he’d apologize to the Chinese for his indiscretion, whether he believes it or not. He’d do this before he pisses them off again. (and again…) > > I’ve watched a Vblogger from China for about a year now. I’ve learned there are two things the average Chinese find distasteful. Talking about politics, which they do not do, and not simply because some of that talk could land them in trouble. And the China Taiwan problem. 2 areas to avoid if you don’t want to piss off a Chinese person. Given the ignorance on display here recently regarding Mattis in particular, and military culture in general, I’m quite confident I have a much better grasp of China’s military capabilities that the average Doper. It takes a bit of magical thinking to imagine that China could assemble and prep an invasion force to attack Taiwan without the US noticing and having significant time to prepare a counter-force. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:29pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/46 "2016-12-04T17:29:00Z")
> [@ThelmaLou](#): > > He participated in this phone call without informing the White House. That’s a right out insult and violation of common courtesy, let alone protocol. He’s not President yet. He can’t do this. He manifestly _can_ do it. It was foolish and he almost certainly did it out of sheer ignorance of diplomatic protocols rather than some grand strategy to push back on China’s aggressiveness. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/47 "2016-12-04T17:41:39Z")
So there! That’ll learn ya! ---
**Author:** ![Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/bosda_di_chi_of_tricor/32/16845_2.png) [@Bosda\_Di\_Chi\_of\_Tricor](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Bosda_Di_Chi_of_Tricor)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 5:52pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/48 "2016-12-04T17:52:16Z")
> [@](#): > > They could roll over Taiwan before the US could turn a carrier around. Same thing in Korea. If NK mobilized its 8 million reserve and active troops, they could roll over SK before the news hit the US. > > If Trump has any brains at all, he’d apologize to the Chinese for his indiscretion, whether he believes it or not. He’d do this before he pisses them off again. (and again…) > > I’ve watched a Vblogger from China for about a year now. I’ve learned there are two things the average Chinese find distasteful. Talking about politics, which they do not do, and not simply because some of that talk could land them in trouble. And the China Taiwan problem. 2 areas to avoid if you don’t want to piss off a Chinese person… **Flatly rubbish.** NK’s air force is junk. Rust-buckets. Twaddle. Much of it’s Navy is being cannibalized for parts, to keep the remainder in service. Stories coming out of NK repeat…and _stress_…that Army units aren’t being **fed** , & are stealing food fromfarms, & robbing passersby, for lack of pay. Quit Mansplaining, **Morgan**. ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 6:11pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/49 "2016-12-04T18:11:54Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > He manifestly _can_ do it. It was foolish and he almost certainly did it out of sheer ignorance of diplomatic protocols rather than some grand strategy to push back on China’s aggressiveness. Thank you for admitting it was foolish and ignorant. As for “sheer ignorance of diplomatic protocols,” anyone who has ever worked in a company, school, the military, or any organization with the most rudimentary hierarchical structure KNOWS you don’t go outside of channels. Sure, he **can** do shit like this, just like he **can** wear his underpants on his head. What does\* he can do it\* even mean? Trump is not capable of any Grand Strategy. I never thought that about the call. He’s too stupid and shortsighted to have a strategy, grand or tiny. ---
**Author:** ![Moriarty](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/moriarty/32/49_2.png) [@Moriarty](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Moriarty)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 6:39pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/50 "2016-12-04T18:39:18Z")
What I haven’t seen mentioned regarding Trump’s thumbing his nose at the Chinese is that China has veto power at the U.N. I expect most Trump supporters will say that they don’t care about the United Nations, but good luck getting international support for anything without China’s cooperation. … My biggest fear is actually a domestic ISIS terrorist attack that is surreptitiously funded, assisted, or encouraged by Russia. If step 1 of the master plan is to help get the blowhard elected, then wouldn’t Step 2 be to quickly define his Presidency with terrorism, especially given his likelihood to overreact (i.e. here comes the Muslim registry) and engender all sorts of domestic social strife (i.e. protests and violent police interactions)? Russian hegemony is easier while America implodes. ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 7:14pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/51 "2016-12-04T19:14:19Z")
> [@Moriarty](#): > > I expect most Trump supporters will say that they don’t care about the United Nations, but good luck getting international support for anything without China’s cooperation. Trump is already going to piss away international, including Chinese, support if he tries to back out of the Iran deal. If he pisses off China further, then even getting more UN sanctions against North Korea in the UNSC will be impossible and China can start ignoring the limited sanctions they currently enforce. > [@](#): > > My biggest fear is actually a domestic ISIS terrorist attack that is surreptitiously funded, assisted, or encouraged by Russia… Russian hegemony is easier while America implodes. Russia had their own Islamic insurgency problem and given that Assad will have to take back Da’esh’s territory sooner or later if he wants to secure his power, Russia seems unlikely to assist Da’esh given the likelihood that any assistance can and will be used against them. Russia’s goal isn’t hegemony, it’s a regional sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and being respected as a global power on par with the U.S., which means having at least a handful of overseas military bases and influence in the Middle East and Asia. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 7:30pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/52 "2016-12-04T19:30:45Z")
The “Muslim registry” was #FakeNews ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 7:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/53 "2016-12-04T19:36:33Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > The “Muslim registry” was #FakeNews [NYTimes.](http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/11/20/donald-trump-says-hed-absolutely-require-muslims-to-register/) > [@](#): > > NEWTON, Iowa — Donald J. Trump, who earlier in the week said he was open to requiring Muslims in the United States to register in a database, said on Thursday night that he “would certainly implement that — absolutely.” > > Mr. Trump was asked about the issue by an NBC News reporter and pressed on whether all Muslims in the country would be forced to register. “They have to be,” he said. “They have to be.’’ > > When asked how a system of registering Muslims would be carried out — whether, for instance, mosques would be where people could register — Mr. Trump said: “Different places. You sign up at different places. But it’s all about management. Our country has no management.’’ ---
**Author:** ![ThelmaLou](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/thelmalou/32/390_2.png) [@ThelmaLou](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ThelmaLou)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 7:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/54 "2016-12-04T19:56:49Z")
“Our country has no management.” Well, it sure doesn’t any more. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/55 "2016-12-04T20:34:26Z")
Running Coach, That story is over a year old. Trump has altered his position at least a few times since then. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/56 "2016-12-04T20:47:58Z")
> [@ganthet](#): > > This is also wildly simplistic. First, it is very unlikely that North Korea would be able to mobilize all of its regular army, let alone its reserve forces, into positions to invade without South Korea and the U.S. detecting this. Given the mindfields that permeate the DMZ, even with any undiscovered NK tunnels to bypass them, the avenues of attack for large scale invasion columns are going to be few and far between. Further, given the NK air force’s woefully antiquated equipment and distrust of pilota for fear of defection, they would have a near impossible job gaining air superiority in order to protect any invasion armored and infantry columns from being attacked and obliterated. > > Given that NK couldn’t conquer the South in a few weeks, let alone months, in 1950, there is no indication they could do so quicker now with the South Korean military much more prepared and advanced and more than a tiny U.S. there to help coordinate defense. U.S. air bases in Japan and Guam have fighter and bomber aircraft that can surge forward to assist SK and there are prepositioned depots in Japan with supplies and ordnance precisely designed for large scale forces to be quickly routed through from the U.S. on the way to Korea. > > Aside from air superiority, NK numbers don’t compensate for their lack of operational experience, old equipment, and most of all their likely far inferior logistics capability to supply an extended invasion. You’re wrong for several reasons. The first is that Seoul is within the range of NK artillery. Once arty start firing, Seoul will fall in a matter of hours. Second. There are four known major tunnels under the DMZ well into SK. 4 that are known, who knows how many that aren’t know. Third. Their million man army is mobilized and easily transported on a highway system that sees 2 maybe 3 cars at rush hour. Air superiority? We had air superiority in Vietnam. How well did that work again? We fought in Korea in the 1950s where we did everything we could possibly do to avoid drawing China into the conflict. We did the same thing in Vietnam. We feared China and Russia getting involved and what would happen to us it they did. Trump is to f’ing stupid to get any of this. Piss off China and we’ll ALL lose, economically, or worse. NK is a nuclear nation. And I absolutely believe the great leader would not hesitate to launch them. And they absolutely would reach SK. Figure that conflict would go nuclear in a matter of days. Bet on it. Kim Jung-un has less common sense than Trump, if that’s even possible. Yes. NK is way more of a threat to the US than people think. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:49pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/57 "2016-12-04T20:49:40Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Running Coach, > > That story is over a year old. Trump has altered his position at least a few times since then. Yes, quite a few times. Back and forth, here and there. Nobody knows what the policies of the United States are anymore. One has to consult twitter to see what they are at any given time. I’m sure you don’t feel that this is a good situation. ---
**Author:** ![running\_coach](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/running_coach/32/15836_2.png) [@running\_coach](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/running_coach)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 8:56pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/58 "2016-12-04T20:56:56Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Running Coach, > > That story is over a year old. Trump has altered his position at least a few times since then. Big deal. You said it was fake news. And if he altered his position before, there’s no reason he can’t again. He said he would do something that shouldn’t cross the mind of a decent person. He tells it like it is, remember? It’s one of the things his supporters love him for. If he gets through his entire term without mentioning it again, I’ll admit I’m wrong. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 9:01pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/59 "2016-12-04T21:01:52Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Their million man army is mobilized and easily transported on a highway system that sees 2 maybe 3 cars at rush hour. I’m not sure North Korea has enough vehicles of any variety to transport 1 million people at once, let alone specifically military vehicles. That would be a HUGE logistics operation that I don’t believe North Korea is capable of. ---
**Author:** ![Fiveyearlurker](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/f/da6949/32.png) [@Fiveyearlurker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Fiveyearlurker)\ **Post date:** [December 4, 2016, 9:05pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/60 "2016-12-04T21:05:06Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > Running Coach, > > That story is over a year old. Trump has altered his position at least a few times since then. So, you’re retracting your claim that it’s fake though, right? [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=2) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=4)