# What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 20\ **Page:** 6
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:19am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/101 "2016-12-06T02:19:39Z")
Here’s the credentials for the authority you quote. _Mike Rothschild Mike Rothschild is a writer and editor based in Pasadena. He writes about scams, conspiracy theories, hoaxes and pop culture fads. He’s also a playwright and screenwriter. Follow him on Twitter at [twitter.com/rothschildmd](http://twitter.com/rothschildmd)._ That’s not a confidence inspiring resume. ---
**Author:** ![elucidator](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/e/8edcca/32.png) [@elucidator](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/elucidator)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/102 "2016-12-06T02:30:48Z")
Your citation is _Skeptoid: Critical Analysis of Pop Phenomena_? Authored by Mike Rothschild (and no, I am _not_ making that up!) Who, we are advised… > [@](#): > > …is a writer and editor based in Pasadena. He writes about scams, conspiracy theories, hoaxes and pop culture fads. He’s also a playwright and screenwriter… Recent contributions include: **Jade Helm 15: The Hell Has Begun** **Is Big Pharma Killing Holistic Doctors?** **The Truth About Waco Biker Shooting Truthers** Well, OK, then, Asian military strategy and capacity expertise firmly established. (ETA: great minds think alike. Twisted minds as well, it would seem. I mean, what kind of anal retentive goes and _read_s cites, anyway!) ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:34am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/103 "2016-12-06T02:34:57Z")
I was going to provide [this Stratfor article](https://www.stratfor.com/analysis/how-north-korea-would-retaliate), but I thought the other one was more approachable for an audience not particularly familiar with military matters. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:37am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/104 "2016-12-06T02:37:35Z")
Anyways, the conspiracy theorist was really just summarizing and re-stating [this thoughtful piece by Roger Cavazos](http://nautilus.org/napsnet/napsnet-special-reports/mind-the-gap-between-rhetoric-and-reality/). He linked it right on his page, so I figured you guys could figure it out. Lesson learned. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:53am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/105 "2016-12-06T03:53:19Z")
> [@asahi](#): > > It works both ways – the US needs China and China needs a large market full of consumers, which is us (at least for now). I certainly don’t advocate needlessly provoking China but I tend to agree with Addy on this one that the media are overreacting on this one. For its part China doesn’t seem to be too panicky either. It’s a phone call for cryin aloud. It certainly does work both ways… You are correct in that. Now tell me, citizens of which country are better prepared to withstand economic privation, hardship, and even severe lack of foodstuffs? Bear in mind that China has had a great famine in living memory, killing an estimated 20 million people from 1958 - 1962. China could withstand quite a bit of economic shock. Folks in the US would start to crumble if you cut off their Netflix accounts, or if the next iPhone model was in short supply. No, China is not “panicky” yet. But you can be very assured that they are making plans… ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:42am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/106 "2016-12-06T04:42:07Z")
\*\*Morgenstern \*\*and **elucidator** , just because an unreliable person (Rothschild) says something true, doesn’t make the truth false. That’s ad hominem. The likelihood of a North Korean invasion succeeding is exceptionally low. ---
**Author:** ![drewder](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/d/57b2e6/32.png) [@drewder](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/drewder)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/107 "2016-12-06T04:54:20Z")
Oddly enough there is always a large number of Navy ships between Taiwan and China. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:54am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/108 "2016-12-06T04:54:27Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > The likelihood of a North Korean invasion succeeding is exceptionally low. Succeeding in the sense of taking over South Korea and adding it to the territory of the North permenantly? Yes, you are most certainly correct. However, they are more than capable of _thinking_ they can succeed, and causing a shit-ton of death and destruction along the way. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 5:06am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/109 "2016-12-06T05:06:39Z")
> [@drewder](#): > > Oddly enough there is always a large number of Navy ships between Taiwan and China. In the Strait? No. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 5:08am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/110 "2016-12-06T05:08:45Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > \*\*Morgenstern \*\*and **elucidator** , just because an unreliable person (Rothschild) says something true, doesn’t make the truth false. That’s ad hominem. > > The likelihood of a North Korean invasion succeeding is exceptionally low. That’s not the point. The point is how bad Trump will fuck up any problem on the Korean peninsula. We already know Trump doesn’t listen to anyone because, as he’s told us, he knows more than the generals. Sure, the US would win an all out war. It you call that winning. Winning isn’t the issue here. Even our \*winning \*would result in what, another 100 billion dollar military expenditure for the US and a trillion + dollars in damages to South Korea from the invasion. (my guess) My point is that NK is poised to totally destroy life in South Korea, in a heartbeat, if they feel threatened. And that would have major repercussions through the far east. A despot with nuclear weapons, chemical weapons, dirty bombs and radio active material better be taken seriously and handled by people with the intelligence to do so. I’m afraid intelligence in Washington will be in short supply for the next 4 years. Trump’s ego is the most dangerous thing to be factored into American foreign policy. Just look at how a little tweet is creating an international incident and old hamster fists isn’t even in the oval office yet. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 9:57am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/111 "2016-12-06T09:57:48Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I agree that North Korea could devastate Seoul with their artillery (or at least the northern portions of it). Beyond that, much of what Victor Cha wrote seems like fantasy. You can’t assemble and prep 700,000 troops and 2,000 tanks just north of the DMZ - the most-heavily guarded and monitored border in the whole damn world - without the US military noticing. > > I’d encourage you to read [this](https://skeptoid.com/blog/2013/03/11/why-north-korea-cant-flatten-seoul/) for what I think is a more realistic assessment of North Korea’s artillery bombardment capabilities. So 700,000 co-ordinated troops can’t be mobilized quickly, but 20 million unprepared civilians caught unawares can be moved to shelters quickly enough to avoid a massive artillery barrage. Got it. > [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > No, China is not “panicky” yet. But you can be very assured that they are making plans… \*Yet across the Strait of Formosa, minds that are to our minds as ours are to those of the beasts that perish, intellects vast and cool and unsympathetic, regarded this island with envious eyes, and slowly and surely drew their plans against us. And early in the twenty-first century came the great disillusionment… \* ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 12:19pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/112 "2016-12-06T12:19:36Z")
The insane factor on the Korean peninsula will always be the Kim dynasty. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 12:42pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/113 "2016-12-06T12:42:29Z")
> [@Euphonious\_Polemic](#): > > It certainly does work both ways… You are correct in that. > Now tell me, citizens of which country are better prepared to withstand economic privation, hardship, and even severe lack of foodstuffs? Bear in mind that China has had a great famine in living memory, killing an estimated 20 million people from 1958 - 1962. > > China could withstand quite a bit of economic shock. > Folks in the US would start to crumble if you cut off their Netflix accounts, or if the next iPhone model was in short supply. > > No, China is not “panicky” yet. But you can be very assured that they are making plans… So because of one ill-advised phone conversation we’re on the doorstep of a cataclysmic showdown? China wants respect, but it doesn’t want a full-on confrontation with its largest economic partner if it can be avoided – that would not only hurt China economically but it would be potentially destabilizing within China as well. That being said, I’m in agreement that he needs to tread lightly with China. He’s living in a fantasy land if he thinks the US holds all the cards. It holds some cards but so does China. China would almost certainly punish Taiwan’s businesses for increased American-Taiwan cooperation – that’s probably going to happen rather soon. They could also punish American businesses in China. And if that weren’t enough, they could wink and nod at North Korea. ---
**Author:** ![asahi](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/asahi/32/8693_2.png) [@asahi](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/asahi)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 12:47pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/114 "2016-12-06T12:47:54Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > \*\*Morgenstern \*\*and **elucidator** , just because an unreliable person (Rothschild) says something true, doesn’t make the truth false. That’s ad hominem. > > The likelihood of a North Korean invasion succeeding is exceptionally low. If the United States is seen as a threat by China then North Korea wouldn’t be the only actor to consider – there would probably be more Chinese-North Korean cooperation as there was in the original conflict. ---
**Author:** ![adaher](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/a/dec6dc/32.png) [@adaher](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/adaher)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 1:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/115 "2016-12-06T13:36:18Z")
True, but that’s a sign of their weakness, not their strength. They let North Korea be North Korea because they need them and are surrounded by potential enemies. China’s pissed off a lot of countries themselves, from Vietnam to Cambodia(they supported the genocide), to India, to Japan, to Russia, to the Muslim community in general due to their oppression of their own Muslim community, to hippies worldwide for their treatment of Tibet. The US has its problems, but China’s only friends are strategic necessities. Everyone else hates them. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:28pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/116 "2016-12-06T14:28:52Z")
> [@adaher](#): > > True, but that’s a sign of their weakness, not their strength. They let North Korea be North Korea because they need them and are surrounded by potential enemies. China’s pissed off a lot of countries themselves, from Vietnam to Cambodia(they supported the genocide), to India, to Japan, to Russia, to the Muslim community in general due to their oppression of their own Muslim community, to hippies worldwide for their treatment of Tibet. The US has its problems, but China’s only friends are strategic necessities. Everyone else hates them. China has a HUGE amount of economic leverage globally, having spent quite a long time buying up insane amounts of property and businesses (including national industries) across the world and developing intricate and lucrative trade deals. China doesn’t need other countries to love it. It needs them not to interfere too heavily with its agenda or there will be “consequences” that don’t involve military action. This is particularly true of our President-Elect, over whom China also holds some significant economic leverage. As long as he is personally beholden to them, Trump will always have a weak hand against China. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/117 "2016-12-06T14:34:30Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > So 700,000 co-ordinated troops can’t be mobilized quickly, but 20 million unprepared civilians caught unawares can be moved to shelters quickly enough to avoid a massive artillery barrage. Got it. I don’t expect that all 20 million will avoid it. I believe North Korea could cause tens of thousands of casualties if it attacked Seoul. However, “Hey, hurry and get into those bomb shelters you live and work above” is a fundamentally different operation than, “Hey, hurry and assemble with your unit just north of the DMZ, because we’re going to storm the most heavily-guarded border in the world and then you have to march 30 miles.” ---
**Author:** ![ganthet](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/g/9de0a6/32.png) [@ganthet](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/ganthet)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:37pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/118 "2016-12-06T14:37:56Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > So 700,000 co-ordinated troops can’t be mobilized quickly, but 20 million unprepared civilians caught unawares can be moved to shelters quickly enough to avoid a massive artillery barrage. Got it. He never said anything about avoiding a massive artillery barrage, since civilians fleeing to shelters can’t prevent anything except potentially their own deaths. But millions of people living in one fixed area is a lot different than hundreds of thousands living all over a country and getting to a particular general geographic area (just north of the DMZ). Most people in the Seoul area could probably [get to shelters](http://koreajoongangdaily.joins.com/news/article/article.aspx?aid=2929444) within one or two hours. Still not fast enough to avoid significant loss of life even with some kind of minimal forewarning, but enough to avoid total annihilation from artillery or other conventional weapons. Compare this to the time it would likely take to get the North Korean military to full mobilization of its active and reserve forces. All active duty U.S. forces are not prepared for imminent deployment logistically, training-wise, or from a personnel standpoint, though some, like the 82d Airborne, are trained to be ready to deploy with 24 hours notice. It is much easier for them, or the 10th Mountain Division, to do this since they are trained in a light infantry role, meaning they don’t have heavy tank brigades that require a lot of armor and all the logistics that a lot of armor requires. The U.S. almost certainly couldn’t fully mobilize all of its own reserve and national guard within 24 hours, let alone 48 hours, to a state resembling anything near deployable status. I’m in a U.S. Army Reserve unit and have seen plenty of other units as well - it would take several days to fully muster some units and then would take at least several weeks of additional combat skills training to prepare units that weren’t already scheduled for an upcoming deployment. ---
**Author:** ![Mr\_Quatro](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/bc8723/32.png) [@Mr\_Quatro](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Mr_Quatro)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:48pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/119 "2016-12-06T14:48:16Z")
What will be Trump’s First Foreign Policy Crisis? [http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/as-trump-vows-to-stop-flow-of-jobs-overseas-us-plans-to-make-fighter-jets-in-india/ar-AAlaXNI?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp](http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/as-trump-vows-to-stop-flow-of-jobs-overseas-us-plans-to-make-fighter-jets-in-india/ar-AAlaXNI?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp) > [@](#): > > In recent months, Lockheed Martin and Boeing have made proposals to the Indian government to manufacture fighter jets — the F-16 Fighting Falcon and the F/A-18 Super Hornet — in India as the country seeks to modernize its rapidly aging fleet of largely Russian-built airplanes. > > In both cases, the aviation companies would be building production facilities in India; Lockheed Martin proposes to move its entire F-16 assembly line from Texas to India, making India the sole producer of the single-engine combat aircraft. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 2:50pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/120 "2016-12-06T14:50:42Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t expect that all 20 million will avoid it. I believe North Korea could cause tens of thousands of casualties if it attacked Seoul. However, “Hey, hurry and get into those bomb shelters you live and work above” is a fundamentally different operation than, “Hey, hurry and assemble with your unit just north of the DMZ, because we’re going to storm the most heavily-guarded border in the world and then you have to march 30 miles.” I agree that NK couldn’t sneak 700,000 troops into attack position without anyone noticing. But if that “500,000 shells an hour” figure is anywhere close to correct, “tens of thousands” is extremely optimistic. That’s over 8000 per minute, landing in a city with a population of over 10 million. Hit the downtown during working hours and you’ll be lucky if the number of dead stays under 1 million. Personally I’m betting that the NK artillery isn’t remotely as functional as it’s made out to be. But that’s a helluva gamble if I’m wrong. > [@ganthet](#): > > He never said anything about avoiding a massive artillery barrage, since civilians fleeing to shelters can’t prevent anything except potentially their own deaths. But millions of people living in one fixed area is a lot different than hundreds of thousands living all over a country and getting to a particular general geographic area (just north of the DMZ). Yes. They make an easier target. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=5) [Next page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=7)