# What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis? **URL:** \ **Category:** Politics & Elections\ **Created:** [December 3, 2016, 2:47am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702 "2016-12-03T02:47:30Z")\ **Posts on this page:** 15\ **Page:** 7
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:04pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/121 "2016-12-06T15:04:19Z")
> [@GreenWyvern](#): > > The first crisis could be anything. The whole world already knows that Trump is a fool. > > Shrewd leaders everywhere are already figuring out the best ways to manipulate him and take advantage of him. America’s influence in the world is about to drop drastically. ^^^ This. Just started reading this thread and this is the _winnah_, for spot-on-point brevity if nothing else. ---
**Author:** ![crucible](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/c/5f8ce5/32.png) [@crucible](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/crucible)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:25pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/122 "2016-12-06T15:25:30Z")
My expectation would be that Kim will make some additional pronouncement about using his nuclear weapons and missiles to destroy America (or some other such nonsense), and Trump will have a carrier positioned off Kim’s coast, less than 100 miles from Pyongyang. Kim will try to attack it, and Donald will use that provocation as an excuse to ‘bomb the hell’ out of Kim’s nuclear facilities and a few thousand troops in their barracks. Then he will demand NK’s surrender of all their nuclear materials and destruction of all their missiles capable of distances over 100 miles. Kim will take his time, while organizing additional underground defenses and will attack South Korea and Japan with artillery and missiles such as he can muster. Trump will level Pyongyang, but will refuse to put troops on the ground. Trump will call for surrender, and China will say…‘that’s enough’. Trump will say, ‘Keep you nose out of this’, and China will liquidate their US treasury holdings. When inflation reaches 25% in the US, Trump will be impeached, Pence will take over and immediately demand the arrest and jailing of all LGBT’s, Asians, Muslims and Latinos. The army will rise up and take power, suspending all constitutional rights. All Republican leaders will be rounded up and jailed at Guantanamo. Hillary will return to Washington, declare the war with Korea over, tell the military to stand down, and will lead us back into peace and prosperity. We’ll get China to take over NK and we’ll restart talks to reunite the two states. ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:32pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/123 "2016-12-06T15:32:22Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > Trump’s ego is the most dangerous thing to be factored into American foreign policy. Just look at how a little tweet is creating an international incident and old hamster fists isn’t even in the oval office yet. Hell, just look at how he can’t even handle mocking by SNL without blowing up another twitterstorm of rage. If he had the power Baldwin would’ve been dragged off to Guantanamo by now. Now imagine him in office with people like General Flynn surrounding him. ---
**Author:** ![Euphonious\_Polemic](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/euphonious_polemic/32/3002_2.png) [@Euphonious\_Polemic](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Euphonious_Polemic)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:34pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/124 "2016-12-06T15:34:26Z")
> [@Mr\_Quatro](#): > > What will be Trump’s First Foreign Policy Crisis? > > [MSN](http://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/as-trump-vows-to-stop-flow-of-jobs-overseas-us-plans-to-make-fighter-jets-in-india/ar-AAlaXNI?li=BBnb7Kz&ocid=iehp) > [@](#): > > In recent months, Lockheed Martin and Boeing have made proposals to the Indian government to manufacture fighter jets — the F-16 Fighting Falcon and the F/A-18 Super Hornet — in India as the country seeks to modernize its rapidly aging fleet of largely Russian-built airplanes. > > In both cases, the aviation companies would be building production facilities in India; Lockheed Martin proposes to move its entire F-16 assembly line from Texas to India, making India the sole producer of the single-engine combat aircraft. Not a problem. The air conditioning for these planes will be made in Indiana, so the Carrier employees will be OK! ---
**Author:** ![EddyTeddyFreddy](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/eddyteddyfreddy/32/18796_2.png) [@EddyTeddyFreddy](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/EddyTeddyFreddy)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:36pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/125 "2016-12-06T15:36:11Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > China has a HUGE amount of economic leverage globally, having spent quite a long time buying up insane amounts of property and businesses (including national industries) across the world and developing intricate and lucrative trade deals. China doesn’t need other countries to love it. It needs them not to interfere too heavily with its agenda or there will be “consequences” that don’t involve military action. Or as Caligula would put it: Oderint dum metuant – Let them hate so long as they fear. I suspect Trump thinks he can operate on that basis but he’s a rank amateur in an arena full of polished pros. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 3:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/126 "2016-12-06T15:41:08Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > I agree that NK couldn’t sneak 700,000 troops into attack position without anyone noticing. But if that “500,000 shells an hour” figure is anywhere close to correct, “tens of thousands” is extremely optimistic. That’s over 8000 per minute, landing in a city with a population of over 10 million. Hit the downtown during working hours and you’ll be lucky if the number of dead stays under 1 million. > > Personally I’m betting that the NK artillery isn’t remotely as functional as it’s made out to be. But that’s a helluva gamble if I’m wrong. > > Yes. They make an easier target. “500,000 shells an hour” is probably exaggerating the reality of the situation, as you noted. Also, the US military’s counter-battery fire is terrifyingly good. One point that was made in the articles I posted in #103 and #104 is that the best real-world data we have on North Korea’s artillery - the shelling of Yeonpyeong Island in 2010 - the North Korean artillery shells had ~25% failure rate. It also shows us that the North Koreans are perfectly willing to bombard civilian targets, and despite their shitty, decrepit equipment, they’re capable of doing so with some effect. ---
**Author:** ![Gyrate](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/gyrate/32/3588_2.png) [@Gyrate](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Gyrate)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/127 "2016-12-06T16:40:02Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > “500,000 shells an hour” is probably exaggerating the reality of the situation, as you noted. Also, the US military’s counter-battery fire is terrifyingly good. True, but even at half that rate five minutes of shelling is over 20,000 shells. Tens of thousands of casualties remains an optimistic estimate. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:40pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/128 "2016-12-06T16:40:37Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > I don’t expect that all 20 million will avoid it. I believe North Korea could cause tens of thousands of casualties if it attacked Seoul. However, “Hey, hurry and get into those bomb shelters you live and work above” is a fundamentally different operation than, “Hey, hurry and assemble with your unit just north of the DMZ, because we’re going to storm the most heavily-guarded border in the world and then you have to march 30 miles.” Look how long it took the people to evacuate the WTC in 9/11. Use that as a measurement. The shelling starts, people look around for 30 seconds trying to figure out what is happening. 30 seconds, 140 x 30 shells have already landed. The shelling continues, people crowd under desks, in doorways, in halls, still trying to figure out what is happening. Citizens in the street panic, run in circles, freeze in terror, the shelling continues. We’re at 2 minutes now, 140 x 120 shells have landed. Buildings are burning, some are crumbling from artillery punching holes in them. Smoke is filling the air, further complicating the matter. Shelters are open, some people are cool enough to head to them,others freeze in panic, blocking others from fleeing. The path to the shelters are becoming blocked with wreckage and fire and panicked citizens. The old and disabled shelter in place. Multitudes are run over by vehicles fleeing, people pushing, shoving, and screaming. 3 minutes now, 140 x 180 shells have landed. Everywhere the whistle of incoming artillery can be heard, 140 a second, one shell is indistinguishable from another in the roar. People are frozen in panic. With the city crumbling and the death, destruction and fire all around them people panic more. We’re 5 minutes into the attack now, 140 x 300 shells have hit on or near their targets. A few people are starting to reach the shelters, the few who were cool enough to keep their heads and can make their ways through the fires. (incendiary shells are in the mix of incoming) 10 minutes into the barrage now, fully 1/6th of half a million artillery shells have landed. The city, the roads, the trains, are taking a brutal pounding, many are blocked or destroyed. The airport is unusable, the runway potholed from the shelling. The subways are worthless as 1000 people try to fill cars designed for 75, that is if the people can even get into the subway where panic has crowed far too many into far too small a space. The shelling continues. Seoul looks like a magnitude 20 earthquake is leveling it. 15 minutes into the barrage and South Korea is just beginning to take out the enemy artillery, but 125,000 artillery rounds have already landed. The NK missiles have been launched, chemical warfare, dirty bombs all fall on Seoul. Sure, this is suicide for NK. They will eventually lose. And when they do, Trump will tweet; “We beat NK, dumb for them to attack. We won.” The stupid fuck will never understand the Asian mindset and he will ever listen to anyone who does. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/129 "2016-12-06T16:43:02Z")
The logical thing for NK to do, militarily, is to trim its military in half to save resources, and focus those resources on improving its artillery force aimed at Seoul, maybe a large commando/infiltration force, and a nominal army and also some naval capability - and also, of course, focus on its nuclear arsenal. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 4:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/130 "2016-12-06T16:46:52Z")
> [@HurricaneDitka](#): > > “500,000 shells an hour” is probably exaggerating the reality of the situation, as you noted. Also, the US military’s counter-battery fire is terrifyingly good. > > … They were the first targets. The field artillery, and SPGs (self-propelled guns) are fired and moved, fired and moved, fired and moved. That’s simple strategy. You can’t shoot what you can’t see. /BTW, I’ve seen estimates as high as 13,000 artillery pieces for NK. Let’s divide that by 4 to be safe and more accurate. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 5:08pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/131 "2016-12-06T17:08:02Z")
> [@Gyrate](#): > > True, but even at half that rate five minutes of shelling is over 20,000 shells. Tens of thousands of casualties remains an optimistic estimate. That assumes that each shell hits smack dab in the vicinity of civilians. It is entirely possible for many shells to hit in such a way that the explosion does not kill people, but inflicts damage or shrapnel. ---
**Author:** ![HurricaneDitka](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/h/96bed5/32.png) [@HurricaneDitka](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/HurricaneDitka)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 5:41pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/132 "2016-12-06T17:41:30Z")
Roger Cavazos’ conclusion was in a counter-value attack he estimated ~30,000 casualties. It’s entirely possible he’s wrong, and maybe even by an order of magnitude or two, but I have yet to read a convincing, detailed analysis like his that makes such a claim. ---
**Author:** ![Morgenstern](https://avatars.discourse-cdn.com/v4/letter/m/f9ae1b/32.png) [@Morgenstern](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Morgenstern)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 6:43pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/133 "2016-12-06T18:43:26Z")
> [@Velocity](#): > > That assumes that each shell hits smack dab in the vicinity of civilians. It is entirely possible for many shells to hit in such a way that the explosion does not kill people, but inflicts damage or shrapnel. It would depend what they were firing. High explosive, incendiary, or white phosphorus all do damage and inflict suffering in different ways. Here’s what White phosphorus looks like when it’s used. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxfPCPA2d60](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxfPCPA2d60) (29 sec. YouTube video) The phosphorus burns, and continues to burn it’s way through whatever it touches. Imagine a street full of people below that. ---
**Author:** ![Velocity](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/velocity/32/18006_2.png) [@Velocity](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/Velocity)\ **Post date:** [December 6, 2016, 7:46pm UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/134 "2016-12-06T19:46:28Z")
> [@Morgenstern](#): > > It would depend what they were firing. High explosive, incendiary, or white phosphorus all do damage and inflict suffering in different ways. > > Here’s what White phosphorus looks like when it’s used. > [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxfPCPA2d60](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qxfPCPA2d60) (29 sec. YouTube video) The phosphorus burns, and continues to burn it’s way through whatever it touches. Imagine a street full of people below that. Yes, but Seoul, like any other city, is not packed 24/7, there is, even on busy times, ample space in the open area in which people could use to get to a place of safety within minutes or seconds of the attack. Phosphorus is relatively useless against people inside concrete/steel buildings. ---
**Author:** ![scabpicker](https://sea3.discourse-cdn.com/straightdope/user_avatar/boards.straightdope.com/scabpicker/32/8268_2.png) [@scabpicker](https://boards.straightdope.com/u/scabpicker)\ **Post date:** [December 7, 2016, 12:30am UTC](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702/135 "2016-12-07T00:30:14Z")
One thing to take into account with North Korea’s artillery force aimed at Seoul – large amounts (IIRC, more than half) will have to move into the open for quite some distance before Seoul is within range. Any barrage would either start gradually with just their most long-range guns, or Seoul would most likely be forewarned by the massive amounts of artillery moving into position. I suspect the higher shells per minute estimates are calculated by assuming all of the available guns are able to begin firing at the same time, unmolested. That seems very unlikely to happen. It would still be a very bad day for Seoul, but it’s unlikely all of the North Korean guns would even make it to fire on their intended target. But even if the real number is 100K for just one hour, it’s not the kind of thing I would wish on anyone. I don’t even want to think about the unintended consequences after that’s over. Lockheed and the F-16? Meh, the planes are going to be sold to India, anyway. The old factory is going to be building other, newer planes provided they don’t get canceled by a short-sighted fool. [Previous page](https://boards.straightdope.com/t/what-will-be-trumps-first-foreign-policy-crisis/773702.md?page=6)