What will be Trump's First Foreign Policy Crisis?

So, when she asks you if it makes her butt look big, you naturally answer, “No, dear, it does not make your butt look big, because your butt is big, and no such illusion occurs.”.

Of course, international diplomacy is a much grander scale, especially between two potentially hostile powers. In that instance, divorce court is not the worst plausible result.

This is precisely what I mean when I say we must not “normalize” Trump’s crazy behavior. We must not piece-by-piece get okay with the dufus-like bullshit he is pulling.

Whether or not the phone call was a big nothing is, in itself, completely beside the point, **except **that it illustrates his impulsive, uninformed, toddler-like, shoot-from-the-hip style.

If he wants to talk to Taiwan on the phone, fine. That may very well be a big nothing, and in fact, might turn out to be a diplomatic coup. But not the way he did it. The way he did it was pure craziness and screamed ignorance, naivete, poor judgment, and lack of respect for the current President. And it screamed it for all the world to see.

This is not the way the President of the United States should behave, so stop calling it a big nothing. He participated in this phone call without informing the White House. That’s a right out insult and violation of common courtesy, let alone protocol. He’s not President yet. He can’t do this. But he doesn’t know he can’t do this because 1) he is ignorant of just about everything, especially how to behave, and 2) he won’t be told what to do.

Stop refusing to see his crazy behavior as crazy, all of you Trump apologists.

Fine with me. The resulting recession will guarantee the Dems taking over Congress in 2018.

This is also wildly simplistic. First, it is very unlikely that North Korea would be able to mobilize all of its regular army, let alone its reserve forces, into positions to invade without South Korea and the U.S. detecting this. Given the mindfields that permeate the DMZ, even with any undiscovered NK tunnels to bypass them, the avenues of attack for large scale invasion columns are going to be few and far between. Further, given the NK air force’s woefully antiquated equipment and distrust of pilota for fear of defection, they would have a near impossible job gaining air superiority in order to protect any invasion armored and infantry columns from being attacked and obliterated.

Given that NK couldn’t conquer the South in a few weeks, let alone months, in 1950, there is no indication they could do so quicker now with the South Korean military much more prepared and advanced and more than a tiny U.S. there to help coordinate defense. U.S. air bases in Japan and Guam have fighter and bomber aircraft that can surge forward to assist SK and there are prepositioned depots in Japan with supplies and ordnance precisely designed for large scale forces to be quickly routed through from the U.S. on the way to Korea.

Aside from air superiority, NK numbers don’t compensate for their lack of operational experience, old equipment, and most of all their likely far inferior logistics capability to supply an extended invasion.

Given the ignorance on display here recently regarding Mattis in particular, and military culture in general, I’m quite confident I have a much better grasp of China’s military capabilities that the average Doper.

It takes a bit of magical thinking to imagine that China could assemble and prep an invasion force to attack Taiwan without the US noticing and having significant time to prepare a counter-force.

He manifestly can do it. It was foolish and he almost certainly did it out of sheer ignorance of diplomatic protocols rather than some grand strategy to push back on China’s aggressiveness.

So there! That’ll learn ya!

Flatly rubbish.

NK’s air force is junk. Rust-buckets. Twaddle.

Much of it’s Navy is being cannibalized for parts, to keep the remainder in service.

Stories coming out of NK repeat…and stress…that Army units aren’t being fed, & are stealing food fromfarms, & robbing passersby, for lack of pay.

Quit Mansplaining, Morgan.

Thank you for admitting it was foolish and ignorant.

As for “sheer ignorance of diplomatic protocols,” anyone who has ever worked in a company, school, the military, or any organization with the most rudimentary hierarchical structure KNOWS you don’t go outside of channels. Sure, he can do shit like this, just like he can wear his underpants on his head. What does* he can do it* even mean?

Trump is not capable of any Grand Strategy. I never thought that about the call. He’s too stupid and shortsighted to have a strategy, grand or tiny.

What I haven’t seen mentioned regarding Trump’s thumbing his nose at the Chinese is that China has veto power at the U.N. I expect most Trump supporters will say that they don’t care about the United Nations, but good luck getting international support for anything without China’s cooperation.

My biggest fear is actually a domestic ISIS terrorist attack that is surreptitiously funded, assisted, or encouraged by Russia. If step 1 of the master plan is to help get the blowhard elected, then wouldn’t Step 2 be to quickly define his Presidency with terrorism, especially given his likelihood to overreact (i.e. here comes the Muslim registry) and engender all sorts of domestic social strife (i.e. protests and violent police interactions)?

Russian hegemony is easier while America implodes.

Trump is already going to piss away international, including Chinese, support if he tries to back out of the Iran deal. If he pisses off China further, then even getting more UN sanctions against North Korea in the UNSC will be impossible and China can start ignoring the limited sanctions they currently enforce.

Russia had their own Islamic insurgency problem and given that Assad will have to take back Da’esh’s territory sooner or later if he wants to secure his power, Russia seems unlikely to assist Da’esh given the likelihood that any assistance can and will be used against them.

Russia’s goal isn’t hegemony, it’s a regional sphere of influence in Eastern Europe and being respected as a global power on par with the U.S., which means having at least a handful of overseas military bases and influence in the Middle East and Asia.

The “Muslim registry” was #FakeNews

NYTimes.

“Our country has no management.”

Well, it sure doesn’t any more.

Running Coach,

That story is over a year old. Trump has altered his position at least a few times since then.

You’re wrong for several reasons.

The first is that Seoul is within the range of NK artillery. Once arty start firing, Seoul will fall in a matter of hours.

Second. There are four known major tunnels under the DMZ well into SK. 4 that are known, who knows how many that aren’t know.

Third. Their million man army is mobilized and easily transported on a highway system that sees 2 maybe 3 cars at rush hour.

Air superiority? We had air superiority in Vietnam. How well did that work again?
We fought in Korea in the 1950s where we did everything we could possibly do to avoid drawing China into the conflict. We did the same thing in Vietnam. We feared China and Russia getting involved and what would happen to us it they did. Trump is to f’ing stupid to get any of this. Piss off China and we’ll ALL lose, economically, or worse.

NK is a nuclear nation. And I absolutely believe the great leader would not hesitate to launch them. And they absolutely would reach SK. Figure that conflict would go nuclear in a matter of days. Bet on it. Kim Jung-un has less common sense than Trump, if that’s even possible.

Yes. NK is way more of a threat to the US than people think.

Yes, quite a few times. Back and forth, here and there.

Nobody knows what the policies of the United States are anymore. One has to consult twitter to see what they are at any given time.

I’m sure you don’t feel that this is a good situation.

Big deal. You said it was fake news.

And if he altered his position before, there’s no reason he can’t again. He said he would do something that shouldn’t cross the mind of a decent person.

He tells it like it is, remember? It’s one of the things his supporters love him for.
If he gets through his entire term without mentioning it again, I’ll admit I’m wrong.

I’m not sure North Korea has enough vehicles of any variety to transport 1 million people at once, let alone specifically military vehicles. That would be a HUGE logistics operation that I don’t believe North Korea is capable of.

So, you’re retracting your claim that it’s fake though, right?